Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology.

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.

Land cover changes across Greenland dominated by a doubling of vegetation in three decades.

Land cover responses to climate change must be quantified for understanding Arctic climate, managing Arctic water resources, maintaining the health and livelihoods of Arctic societies and for sustainable economic development. This need is especially pressing in Greenland, where climate changes are amongst the most pronounced of anywhere in the Arctic. Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and from glaciers and ice caps has increased since the 1980s and consequently the proglacial parts of Greenland have expanded rapidly. Here we determine proglacial land cover changes at 30 m spatial resolution across Greenland during the last three decades. Besides the vastly decreased ice cover (- 28,707 km2 ± 9767 km2), we find a doubling in total areal coverage of vegetation (111% ± 13%), a quadrupling in wetlands coverage (380% ± 29%), increased meltwater (15% ± 15%), decreased bare bedrock (- 16% ± 4%) and increased coverage of fine unconsolidated sediment (4% ± 13%). We identify that land cover change is strongly associated with the difference in the number of positive degree days, especially above 6 °C between the 1980s and the present day. Contrastingly, absolute temperature increase has a negligible association with land cover change. We explain that these land cover changes represent local rapid and intense geomorphological activity that has profound consequences for land surface albedo, greenhouse gas emissions, landscape stability and sediment delivery, and biogeochemical processes.

Using Teamwork to Bridge the Adolescent and Young Adult Gap.

PURPOSE: Individuals diagnosed with cancer age between 15 and 39 years (adolescents and young adults [AYAs]) have not seen improvement in survival compared with children or older adults; clinical trial accrual correlates with survival. Unique unmet needs among AYAs related to psychosocial support and fertility preservation (FP) are associated with health-related quality of life. METHODS: We enhanced existing structures and leveraged faculty/staff across pediatric/adult oncology to create novel teams focused on AYA (age 15-39 years) care at a single center, with minimal dedicated staff and no change to revenue streams. We aimed to influence domains shown to drive survival and health-related quality of life: clinical trial enrollment, physician/staff collaboration, psychosocial support, and FP. We captured metrics 3 months after patients presented to the institution and compared them before/after Program implementation using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Among 139 AYAs (age 15-39 years) from the pre-Program era (January 2016-February 2019: adult, n = 79; pediatric, n = 60), and 279 from the post-Program era (February 2019-March 2022: adult, n = 215; pediatric, n = 64), there was no change in clinical trial enrollment(P ≥ .3), whereas there was an increase in the proportion of AYAs referred for supportive care and psychology (pediatric: P ≤ .02; adult: P ≤ .001); whose oncologists discussed FP (pediatric: 15% v 52%, P < .0001; adult: 37% v 50%, P = .0004); and undergoing FP consults (pediatric: 8% v39%, P < .0001; adult 23% v 38%, P = .02). CONCLUSION: This team-based framework has effected change in most targeted domains. To affect all domains and design optimal interventions, it is crucial to understand patient-level and facility-level barriers/facilitators to FP and clinical trial enrollment.

Trends in treatment costs of U.S. emergency department visits.

BACKGROUND: Spending on emergency department (ED) services in recent years has increased faster than spending in any other area of healthcare. Analyzing growth rates of ED treatment costs by patient and hospital attributes may illuminate ways to reduce overall hospital cost growth. Prior studies have examined changes in ED visit charges and expenditures over time, but little research has focused on changes in ED treatment costs. METHODS: We analyzed trends in ED treatment costs by applying the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Cost-to-Charge Ratios for ED Files to the 2012-2019 HCUP Nationwide Emergency Department Sample. Specifically, we estimated treatment cost per ED visit, mean and total costs by patient and hospital characteristics, and compound annual growth rate in costs and patient volumes. RESULTS: During 2012-2019, ED treatment costs increased from $54 billion to $88 billion, a 5.4% annual growth rate-with 4.4 percentage points attributable to higher treatment cost per visit. Growth rates varied by patient and hospital attribute. CONCLUSIONS: By highlighting overall ED cost trends, as well as specific segments of the delivery system with the most rapidly increasing costs, this study provides important information for policymakers and hospital decisionmakers.

Methods for estimating the cost of treat-and-release emergency department visits.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare approaches to estimating the service delivery cost of emergency department (ED) visits from total charge data only. DATA SOURCES: The 2013-2017 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's (HCUP) State Emergency Department Databases (SEDD) and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Healthcare Cost Report Information System (HCRIS) public use files. STUDY DESIGN: Compare a baseline approach (requiring cost-center-level charge detail) and four alternative methods (relying on total charges only) for estimating ED visit costs. Estimation errors are calculated after applying each method to a sample of ED visits, treating estimates from the baseline approach as the "true" cost. Performance metrics are calculated at the visit and hospital levels. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: The charges, revenue center codes, and patient/hospital characteristics were extracted from the SEDD. Detailed costs and charges were extracted from HCRIS public use files. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Baseline ("true") ED visit costs increased from $383 to $420 per visit between 2013 and 2017. Three methods performed comparatively well estimating mean cost per visit. The method using an overall cost-to-charge ratio (CCR) for all ancillary cost centers without regression adjustment (ANC-CCR) performed the worst, overestimating "true" costs by $63-$113 per visit. The other three methods, which used CCRs computed from selected cost centers, exhibited much smaller bias, with two of the methods yielding estimates within $2 of the "true" cost in 2017. Compared with ANC-CCR, the other three methods had more compact estimation error distributions. The estimated mean visit costs from all four methods have relatively small statistical variance, with 95% confidence intervals for mean cost in a hospital with 25,000 ED visits ranging between $4 and $7. CONCLUSIONS: When cost-center-level charge detail for ED visits is unavailable, alternative methods relying on total ED charges can estimate ED service costs for patient and hospital segments.

Regeneration and growth in crowns and rhizome fragments of Japanese knotweed (Reynoutria japonica) and desiccation as a potential control strategy.

Reynoutria japonica (Japanese knotweed) is a problematic invasive plant found in many areas of Europe and North America. Notably, in the UK, the species can cause issues with mortgage acquisition. Control of R. japonica is complicated by its ability to regenerate from small fragments of plant material; however, there remains uncertainty about how much (in terms of mass) rhizome is required for successful regeneration. This study investigated the ability of crowns and rhizomes with different numbers of nodes to regenerate successfully from three sites in the north of England, UK. Two of the sites had been subject to herbicide treatment for two years prior to sampling and the third site had no history of herbicide treatment. No significant differences were observed in regenerated stem diameter, maximum height of stem and maximum growth increments among crowns. All traits measured from the planted crowns were significantly greater than those of the planted rhizome fragments and at least one node was necessary for successful regeneration of rhizomes. The smallest initial fragment weight to regenerate and survive the experiment was 0.5 g. Subjecting all plant material to desiccation for 38 days resulted in no regrowth (emergence or regeneration) after replanting. These findings suggest that desiccation could be a valuable management strategy for small to medium scale infestations common in urban settings.

Developing a Standard Set of Patient-centred Outcomes for Adult Oral Health - An International, Cross-disciplinary Consensus.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a minimum Adult Oral Health Standard Set (AOHSS) for use in clinical practice, research, advocacy and population health. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An international oral health working group (OHWG) was established, of patient advocates, researchers, clinicians and public health experts to develop an AOHSS. PubMed was searched for oral health clinical and patient-reported measures and case-mix variables related to caries and periodontal disease. The selected patient-reported outcome measures focused on general oral health, and oral health-related quality of life tools. A consensus was reached via Delphi with parallel consultation of subject matter content experts. Finally, comments and input were elicited from oral health stakeholders globally, including patients/consumers. RESULTS: The literature search yielded 1,453 results. After inclusion/exclusion criteria, 959 abstracts generated potential outcomes and case-mix variables. Delphi rounds resulted in a consensus-based selection of 80 individual items capturing 31 outcome and case-mix concepts. Global reviews generated 347 responses from 87 countries, and the patient/consumer validation survey elicited 129 responses. This AOHSS includes 25 items directed towards patients (including demographics, the impact of their oral health on oral function, a record of pain and oral hygiene practices, and financial implications of care) and items for clinicians to complete, including medical history, a record of caries and periodontal disease activity, and types of dental treatment delivered. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, utilising a robust methodology, a standardised core set of oral health outcome measures for adults, with a particular emphasis on caries and periodontal disease, was developed.

Implementation of Evidence-Based Recommendations for Preventive Services in the Veterans Health Administration.

INTRODUCTION: The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) is the largest integrated health care system in the United States. To date, there has been scant research on how VHA adopts clinical preventive services guidelines and how U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations factor into the process. METHODS: Researchers conducted semistructured interviews with eight VHA leaders to examine how they adopt, disseminate, and measure adherence to recommendations. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and aggregated into a database to enable sorting and synthesis. Themes were identified across the key informant interviews. RESULTS: The development of VHA clinical prevention guidelines is coordinated by the National Center for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention. A VHA Advisory Committee discusses and votes to approve or disapprove each guideline. Several factors can impact the ability of a veterans affairs medical center to implement a guideline, such as local system capacity and priorities for quality improvement. Methods to promote implementation include electronic reminders, educational events, and a robust performance measurement system. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of evidence-based clinical preventive services is an important part of VHA's effort to provide high-quality care for Veterans. Recent achievements in lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and Hepatitis C screening highlight VHA's successful approach to implementation of preventive services guidance.

Early Infectious Diseases Specialty Intervention Is Associated With Shorter Hospital Stays and Lower Readmission Rates: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: Intervention by infectious diseases (ID) physicians improves outcomes for inpatients in Medicare, but patients with other insurance types could fare differently. We assessed whether ID involvement leads to better outcomes among privately insured patients under age 65 years hospitalized with common infections. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of administrative claims data from community hospital and postdischarge ambulatory care. Patients were privately insured individuals less than 65 years old with an acute-care stay in 2014 for selected infections, classed as having early (by day 3) or late (after day 3) ID intervention, or none. Key outcomes were mortality, cost, length of the index stay, readmission rate, mortality, and total cost of care over the first 30 days after discharge. Results: Patients managed with early ID involvement had shorter length of stay, lower spending, and lower mortality in the index stay than those patients managed without ID involvement. Relative to late, early ID involvement was associated with shorter length of stay and lower cost. Individuals with early ID intervention during hospitalization had fewer readmissions and lower healthcare payments after discharge. Relative to late, those with early ID intervention experienced lower readmission, lower spending, and lower mortality. Conclusions: Among privately insured patients less than 65 years old, treated in a hospital, early intervention with an ID physician was associated with lower mortality rate and shorter length of stay. Patients who received early ID intervention during their hospital stay were less likely to be readmitted after discharge and had lower total healthcare spending.

Infectious Diseases Specialty Intervention Is Associated With Better Outcomes Among Privately Insured Individuals Receiving Outpatient Parenteral Antimicrobial Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) can be managed by specialists in infectious diseases (ID) or by other physicians. Better management of OPAT can reduce the likelihood of readmission or emergency department (ED) use. The relative success of ID specialists and other physicians in managing OPAT has received little study. METHODS: We analyzed a national database of insurance claims for privately insured individuals under age 65, locating inpatient acute-care stays in 2013 and 2014 that were followed by OPAT. Through propensity scoring, patients who received outpatient ID intervention (ID-led OPAT) were matched 1-to-1 with those who did not (Other OPAT). We estimated regression models of hospital and ED admissions and of total healthcare payments over the first 30 days after discharge. RESULTS: The final analytic sample of 8200 observations was well balanced on clinical and demographic characteristics. Soft-tissue infection and osteomyelitis were the most common infections in the index event, each affecting more than 40% of individuals. Relative to those with Other OPAT, people with ID-led OPAT had lower odds of an ED admission (odds ratio [OR] 0.449, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.311-0.645) or hospitalization (OR 0.661, 95% CI 0.557-0.791) over 30 days, and they accumulated $1488 less in total healthcare payments (95% CI -2 688.56--266.58). CONCLUSIONS: Among privately insured individuals below age 65, ID consultations during OPAT are associated with large and significant reductions in the rates of ED admission and hospital admission in the 30 days after index events, as well as lower total healthcare spending.

Performance on Electronic Clinical Quality Measures in the Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative.

Electronic clinical quality measures (eCQMs) that capture data from electronic health records promise accurate and timely measurement, but their use has been limited in payment. The Comprehensive Primary Care initiative sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services used eCQMs as part of a shared savings incentive. To assess performance, the authors developed benchmarks for 11 measures and compared performance of initiative and benchmark practices. Initiative practices outperformed benchmark practices on 8 measures in 2015 (between 6.3 and 17.7 percentage points) and 9 measures in 2016 (between 1.7 and 20 percentage points). Initiative practices improved significantly on 7 measures from 2015 to 2016 (between 3.3 and 8.6 percentage points). For 3 measures, the improvement was greater than benchmark practices that reported the same measures in a 2-year period (between 1 and 8.9 percentage points). The authors conclude that eCQMs can be used for payment.

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Ecosystem state shifts during long-term development of an Amazonian peatland.

The most carbon (C)-dense ecosystems of Amazonia are areas characterized by the presence of peatlands. However, Amazonian peatland ecosystems are poorly understood and are threatened by human activities. Here, we present an investigation into long-term ecohydrological controls on C accumulation in an Amazonian peat dome. This site is the oldest peatland yet discovered in Amazonia (peat initiation ca. 8.9 ka BP), and developed in three stages: (i) peat initiated in an abandoned river channel with open water and aquatic plants; (ii) inundated forest swamp; and (iii) raised peat dome (since ca. 3.9 ka BP). Local burning occurred at least three times in the past 4,500 years. Two phases of particularly rapid C accumulation (ca. 6.6-6.1 and ca. 4.9-3.9 ka BP), potentially resulting from increased net primary productivity, were seemingly driven by drier conditions associated with widespread drought events. The association of drought phases with major ecosystem state shifts (open water wetland-forest swamp-peat dome) suggests a potential climatic control on the developmental trajectory of this tropical peatland. A third drought phase centred on ca. 1.8-1.1 ka BP led to markedly reduced C accumulation and potentially a hiatus during the peat dome stage. Our results suggest that future droughts may lead to phases of rapid C accumulation in some inundated tropical peat swamps, although this can lead ultimately to a shift to ombrotrophy and a subsequent return to slower C accumulation. Conversely, in ombrotrophic peat domes, droughts may lead to reduced C accumulation or even net loss of peat. Increased surface wetness at our site in recent decades may reflect a shift towards a wetter climate in western Amazonia. Amazonian peatlands represent important carbon stores and habitats, and are important archives of past climatic and ecological information. They should form key foci for conservation efforts.

Large Health Systems' Prevention Guideline Implementation: A Qualitative Study.

INTRODUCTION: Health systems now employ more than half of U.S. physicians. They have the potential to affect primary care through decision support and financial incentives around clinical prevention guidelines. The processes by which they respond to and implement clinical guidelines remain largely unexplored. METHODS: In 2015, the research team conducted and analyzed interviews with quality leaders from eight hospital-based systems and one physician organization which together employ >33,000 physicians and serve >15 million patients. Executives explained organizational processes to adapt, adopt, disseminate, and incentivize adherence to preventive services guidelines. RESULTS: Nearly all have a formal process for reviewing and refining guidelines, developing clinician support, and disseminating the approved guidelines. Internal and external factors like organizational structure, patient demographics, and payer contracts affect the review processes and resulting guideline adaptations. Challenges to guideline uptake include competing demands on clinician time and the absence of accurate and timely patient data in accessible and user-friendly formats. Interviewees reported that engaging clinicians in guideline review is critical to successful implementation. Electronic health record reminders represent the primary tool for guideline dissemination and reinforcement. Interviewees reported widespread use of performance monitoring and feedback to clinicians, with varying levels of success. Most organizations use financial incentives tied to performance for some of their clinicians, although details vary widely depending on network structures and contractual arrangements. CONCLUSIONS: Health systems play a critical intermediary role between guideline-developing organizations and practicing clinicians. Strengthening the adoption of guidelines requires attention to many factors beyond care delivery.

Rationale and design of the Drug-Eluting Stents vs Bare-Metal Stents in Saphenous Vein Graft Angioplasty (DIVA) Trial.

VA Cooperative Studies Program #571 (DIVA) was designed to evaluate the efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DES) for reducing aortocoronary saphenous vein bypass graft (SVG) failure when compared with bare-metal stents (BMS) in participants undergoing stenting of de novo SVG lesions. Participants undergoing clinically indicated stenting of de novo SVG lesions were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to DES or BMS. Randomization was stratified by presence/absence of diabetes mellitus and the number of target SVG lesions (1 vs ≥2) within each participating site. At sites that did not routinely administer 12-months of dual antiplatelet therapy after SVG stenting participants without acute coronary syndromes received 1 month of open-label clopidogrel, followed by 11 months of clopidogrel for those assigned to DES and 11 months of placebo for those assigned to BMS. The primary endpoint was the 12-month incidence of target-vessel failure (defined as the composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, or target-vessel revascularization). Secondary endpoints included the incidence of other clinical endpoints and the incremental cost-effectiveness of DES relative to BMS. Due to lower-than-anticipated target-vessel failure rates, target enrollment was increased from 519 to 762. The study had randomized 599 participants when recruitment ended in December 2015. The DIVA trial will provide clarity on the appropriate stent type for de novo SVG lesions.

Differences in severity at admission for heart failure between rural and urban patients: the value of adding laboratory results to administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Rural/urban variations in admissions for heart failure may be influenced by severity at hospital presentation and local practice patterns. Laboratory data reflect clinical severity and guide hospital admission decisions and treatment for heart failure, a costly chronic illness and a leading cause of hospitalization among the elderly. Our main objective was to examine the role of laboratory test results in measuring disease severity at the time of admission for inpatients who reside in rural and urban areas. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed discharge data on 13,998 hospital discharges for heart failure from three states, Hawai'i, Minnesota, and Virginia. Hospital discharge records from 2008 to 2012 were derived from the State Inpatient Databases of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, and were merged with results of laboratory tests performed on the admission day or up to two days before admission. Regression models evaluated the relationship between clinical severity at admission and patient urban/rural residence. Models were estimated with and without use of laboratory data. RESULTS: Patients residing in rural areas were more likely to have missing laboratory data on admission and less likely to have abnormal or severely abnormal tests. Rural patients were also less likely to be admitted with high levels of severity as measured by the All Patient Refined Diagnosis Related Groups (APR-DRG) severity subclass, derivable from discharge data. Adding laboratory data to discharge data improved model fit. Also, in models without laboratory data, the association between urban compared to rural residence and APR-DRG severity subclass was significant for major and extreme levels of severity (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.03-1.43 and 1.55, 95% CI 1.26-1.92, respectively). After adding laboratory data, this association became non-significant for major severity and was attenuated for extreme severity (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.94-1.32 and 1.43, 95% CI 1.15-1.78, respectively). CONCLUSION: Heart failure patients from rural areas are hospitalized at lower severity levels than their urban counterparts. Laboratory test data provide insight on clinical severity and practice patterns beyond what is available in administrative discharge data.

Hospital Utilization and Costs Among Preterm Infants by Payer: Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2009.

OBJECTIVES: To describe hospital utilization and costs associated with preterm or low birth weight births (preterm/LBW) by payer prior to implementation of the Affordable Care Act and to identify areas for improvement in the quality of care received among preterm/LBW infants. METHODS: Hospital utilization-defined as mean length of stay (LOS, days), secondary diagnoses for birth hospitalizations, primary diagnoses for rehospitalizations, and transfer status-and costs were described among preterm/LBW infants using the 2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. RESULTS: Approximately 9.1 % of included hospitalizations (n = 4,167,900) were births among preterm/LBW infants; however, these birth hospitalizations accounted for 43.4 % of total costs. Rehospitalizations of all infants occurred at a rate of 5.9 % overall, but accounted for 22.6 % of total costs. This pattern was observed across all payer types. The prevalence of rehospitalizations was nearly twice as high among preterm/LBW infants covered by Medicaid (7.6 %) compared to commercially-insured infants (4.3 %). Neonatal transfers were more common among preterm/LBW infants whose deliveries and hospitalizations were covered by Medicaid (7.3 %) versus commercial insurance (6.5 %). Uninsured/self-pay preterm and LBW infants died in-hospital during the first year of life at a rate of 91 per 1000 discharges-nearly three times higher than preterm and LBW infants covered by either Medicaid (37 per 1000) or commercial insurance (32 per 1000). CONCLUSIONS: When comparing preterm/LBW infants whose births were covered by Medicaid and commercial insurance, there were few differences in length of hospital stays and costs. However, opportunities for improvement within Medicaid and CHIP exist with regard to reducing rehospitalizations and neonatal transfers.

Cost-Effectiveness of Integrating Tobacco Cessation Into Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Treatment.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation integrated with treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHODS: Smoking veterans receiving care for PTSD (N = 943) were randomized to care integrated with smoking cessation versus referral to a smoking cessation clinic. Smoking cessation services, health care cost and utilization, quality of life, and biochemically-verified abstinence from cigarettes were assessed over 18-months of follow-up. Clinical outcomes were combined with literature on changes in smoking status and the effect of smoking on health care cost, mortality, and quality of life in a Markov model of cost-effectiveness over a lifetime horizon. We discounted cost and outcomes at 3% per year and report costs in 2010 US dollars. RESULTS: The mean of smoking cessation services cost was $1286 in those randomized to integrated care and $551 in those receiving standard care (P < .001). There were no significant differences in the cost of mental health services or other care. After 12 months, prolonged biochemically verified abstinence was observed in 8.9% of those randomized to integrated care and 4.5% of those randomized to standard care (P = .004). The model projected that Integrated Care added $836 in lifetime cost and generated 0.0259 quality adjusted life years (QALYs), an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32 257 per QALY. It was 86.0% likely to be cost-effective compared to a threshold of $100 000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking cessation integrated with treatment for PTSD was cost-effective, within a broad confidence region, but less cost-effective than most other smoking cessation programs reported in the literature.

Predicting inpatient hospital payments in the United States: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has increased rates of public and private health insurance in the United States. Increasing coverage could raise hospital revenue and reduce the need to shift costs to insured patients. The consequences of ACA on hospital revenues could be examined if payments were known for most hospitals in the United States. Actual payment data are considered confidential, however, and only charges are widely available. Payment-to-charge ratios (PCRs), which convert hospital charges to an estimated payment, have been estimated for hospitals in 10 states. Here we evaluated whether PCRs can be predicted for hospitals in states that do not provide detailed financial data. METHODS: We predicted PCRs for 5 payer categories for over 1,000 community hospitals in 10 states as a function of state, market, hospital, and patient characteristics. Data sources included the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases, HCUP Hospital Market Structure file, Medicare Provider of Service file, and state information from several sources. We performed out-of-sample prediction to determine the magnitude of prediction errors by payer category. RESULTS: Many individual, hospital, and state factors were significant predictors of PCRs. Root mean squared error of prediction ranged from 32 to over 100 % of the mean and varied considerably by which states were included or predicted. The cost-to-charge ratio (CCR) was highly correlated with PCRs for Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance but not for self-pay or other insurance categories. CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient payments can be estimated with modest accuracy for community hospital stays funded by Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. They improve upon CCRs by allowing separate estimation by payer type. PCRs are currently the only approach to estimating fee-for-service payments for privately insured stays, which represent a sizable proportion of stays for individuals under age 65. Additional research is needed to improve the predictive accuracy of the models for all payers.

Medicaid dental coverage alone may not lower rates of dental emergency department visits.

Medicaid was expanded to millions of individuals under the Affordable Care Act, but many states do not provide dental coverage for adults under their Medicaid programs. In the absence of dental coverage, patients may resort to costly emergency department (ED) visits for dental conditions. Medicaid coverage of dental benefits could help ease the burden on the ED, but ED use for dental conditions might remain a problem in areas with a scarcity of dentists. We examined county-level rates of ED visits for nontraumatic dental conditions in twenty-nine states in 2010 in relation to dental provider density and Medicaid coverage of nonemergency dental services. Higher density of dental providers was associated with lower rates of dental ED visits by patients with Medicaid in rural counties but not in urban counties, where most dental ED visits occurred. County-level Medicaid-funded dental ED visit rates were lower in states where Medicaid covered nonemergency dental services than in other states, although this difference was not significant after other factors were adjusted for. Providing dental coverage alone might not reduce Medicaid-funded dental ED visits if patients do not have access to dental providers.