Observations of enhanced rainfall variability in Kenya, East Africa.

Understanding local patterns of rainfall variability is of great concern in East Africa, where agricultural productivity is dominantly rainfall dependent. However, East African rainfall climatology is influenced by numerous drivers operating at multiple scales, and local patterns of variability are not adequately understood. Here, we show evidence of substantial variability of local rainfall patterns between 1981 and 2021 at the national and county level in Kenya, East Africa. Results show anomalous patterns of both wetting and drying in both the long and short rainy seasons, with evidence of increased frequency of extreme wet and dry events through time. Observations also indicate that seasonal and intraseasonal variability increased significantly after 2013, coincident with diminished coherence between ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and rainfall. Increasing frequency and magnitude of rainfall variability suggests increasing need for local-level climate change adaptation strategies.

Public and manager perceptions about prescribed fire in the Mid-Atlantic, United States.

Firescapes of the Mid-Atlantic are understudied compared to other ecosystems in the United States, and little is known about the acceptance of prescribed fire as a forest management tool. Yet, this region harbors high levels of wildland-urban interface (WUI), has a close intermingling of land ownerships, and reflects substantial regional heterogeneity in burning histories and fire hazards. As prescribed fire is increasingly applied in the Mid-Atlantic as a critical tool to meet various land management objectives, research is needed to help managers understand community perceptions of prescribed fire implementation. Through intercept surveys of forest recreationists and online surveys of fire managers, this study investigates perceptions about prescribed fire use in the Mid-Atlantic, in addition to the critical contributing factors of public support toward prescribed fires. Two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, were selected as case studies to explore regional differences in social perception due to their contrasts in fire history, policy, management objectives, and social exposure. Our results show moderate social awareness of local prescribed fires, moderate to high familiarity with prescribed burning, high agency trust, and strong community support toward prescribed fires. However, the perceived concerns and benefits differed between managers and forest recreationists and between recreationists from Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The factors influencing the support of prescribed burning practices included forest management beliefs, concern about prescribed fire effects, familiarity with prescribed fires as a forest management tool, and awareness of local prescribed fires. Collectively, these results highlighted needs in public outreach to strengthen education, build broader community awareness, engage critical stakeholder groups such as forest recreationists, and re-align public outreach messages based on community-level concerns and perceived benefits. Additionally, it will be vital for the scientific community to help monitor critical shifts in forest value orientations and fill in significant research gaps regarding prescribed fire benefits.

Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels.

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

Conceptual Links between Landscape Diversity and Diet Diversity: A Roadmap for Transdisciplinary Research.

Malnutrition linked to poor quality diets affects at least 2 billion people. Forests, as well as agricultural systems linked to trees, are key sources of dietary diversity in rural settings. In the present article, we develop conceptual links between diet diversity and forested landscape mosaics within the rural tropics. First, we summarize the state of knowledge regarding diets obtained from forests, trees, and agroforests. We then hypothesize how disturbed secondary forests, edge habitats, forest access, and landscape diversity can function in bolstering dietary diversity. Taken together, these ideas help us build a framework illuminating four pathways (direct, agroecological, energy, and market pathways) connecting forested landscapes to diet diversity. Finally, we offer recommendations to fill remaining knowledge gaps related to diet and forest cover monitoring. We argue that better evaluation of the role of land cover complexity will help avoid overly simplistic views of food security and, instead, uncover nutritional synergies with forest conservation and restoration.

Correction: Growth and survival relationships of 71 tree species with nitrogen and sulfur deposition across the conterminous U.S.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0205296.].

Fine-scale spatial homogenization of microbial habitats: a multivariate index of headwater wetland complex condition.

With growing public awareness that wetlands are important to society, there are intensifying efforts to understand the ecological condition of those wetlands that remain, and to develop indicators of wetland condition. Indicators based on soils are not well developed and are absent in some current assessment protocols; these could be advantageous, particularly for soils, which are complex habitats for plants, invertebrates, and microbial communities. In this study, we examine whether multivariate soil indicators, correlated with microbial biomass and community composition, can be used to distinguish reference standard (i.e., high condition) headwater wetland complexes from impacted headwater wetland complexes in central Pennsylvania, USA. Our reference standard sites existed in forested landscapes, while our impacted sites were situated in multi-use landscapes and were affected by a range of land-use legacies in the 1900s. We found that current assessment protocols are likely underrepresenting sampling needs to accurately represent site mean soil properties. On average, more samples were required to represent soil property means in reference standard sites compared to impacted sites. Reference standard and impacted sites also had noticeably different types of microbial habitats for the two multivariate soil indices assessed, and impacted sites were more homogenized in terms of the fine-scale (i.e., 1 and 5 m) spatial variability of these indices. Our study shows promise for the use of multivariate soil indices as indicators of wetland condition and provides insights into the sample sizes and scales at which soil sampling should occur during assessments. Future work is needed to test the generalizability of these findings across wetland types and ecoregions and establish definitive links between structural changes in microbial habitats and changes in wetland soil functioning.

Growth and survival relationships of 71 tree species with nitrogen and sulfur deposition across the conterminous U.S.

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) influences forest demographics and carbon (C) uptake through multiple mechanisms that vary among tree species. Prior studies have estimated the effects of atmospheric N deposition on temperate forests by leveraging forest inventory measurements across regional gradients in deposition. However, in the United States (U.S.), these previous studies were limited in the number of species and the spatial scale of analysis, and did not include sulfur (S) deposition as a potential covariate. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of how tree growth and survival for 71 species vary with N and S deposition across the conterminous U.S. Our analysis of 1,423,455 trees from forest plots inventoried between 2000 and 2016 reveals that the growth and/or survival of the vast majority of species in the analysis (n = 66, or 93%) were significantly affected by atmospheric deposition. Species co-occurred across the conterminous U.S. that had decreasing and increasing relationships between growth (or survival) and N deposition, with just over half of species responding negatively in either growth or survival to increased N deposition somewhere in their range (42 out of 71). Averaged across species and conterminous U.S., however, we found that an increase in deposition above current rates of N deposition would coincide with a small net increase in tree growth (1.7% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), and a small net decrease in tree survival (-0.22% per Δ kg N ha-1 yr-1), with substantial regional and among-species variation. Adding S as a predictor improved the overall model performance for 70% of the species in the analysis. Our findings have potential to help inform ecosystem management and air pollution policy across the conterminous U.S., and suggest that N and S deposition have likely altered forest demographics in the U.S.

A regional assessment of white-tailed deer effects on plant invasion.

Herbivores can profoundly influence plant species assembly, including plant invasion, and resulting community composition. Population increases of native herbivores, e.g. white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), combined with burgeoning plant invasions raise concerns for native plant diversity and forest regeneration. While individual researchers typically test for the impact of deer on plant invasion at a few sites, the overarching influence of deer on plant invasion across regional scales is unclear. We tested the effects of deer on the abundance and diversity of introduced and native herbaceous and woody plants across 23 white-tailed deer research sites distributed across the east-central and north-eastern USA and representing a wide range of deer densities and invasive plant abundance and identity. Deer access/exclusion or deer population density did not affect introduced plant richness or community-level abundance. Native and total plant species richness, abundance (cover and stem density) and Shannon diversity were lower in deer-access vs. deer-exclusion plots. Among deer-access plots, native species richness, native and total cover, and Shannon diversity (cover) declined as deer density increased. Deer access increased the proportion of introduced species cover (but not of species richness or stem density). As deer density increased, the proportion of introduced species richness, cover and stem density all increased. Because absolute abundance of introduced plants was unaffected by deer, the increase in proportion of introduced plant abundance is likely an indirect effect of deer reducing native cover. Indicator species analysis revealed that deer access favoured three introduced plant species, including Alliaria petiolata and Microstegium vimineum, as well as four native plant species. In contrast, deer exclusion favoured three introduced plant species, including Lonicera japonica and Rosa multiflora, and 15 native plant species. Overall, native deer reduced community diversity, lowering native plant richness and abundance, and benefited certain invasive plants, suggesting pervasive impacts of this keystone herbivore on plant community composition and ecosystem services in native forests across broad swathes of the eastern USA.

A decade of colonization: the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito in Pennsylvania and implications for disease risk.

In recent decades, the Asian tiger mosquito expanded its geographic range throughout the northeastern United States, including Pennsylvania. The establishment of Aedes albopictus in novel areas raises significant public health concerns, since this species is a highly competent vector of several arboviruses, including chikungunya, West Nile, and dengue. In this study, we used geographic information systems (GIS) to examine a decade of colonization by Ae. albopictus throughout Pennsylvania between 2001 and 2010. We examined the spatial and temporal distribution of Ae. albopictus using spatial statistical analysis and examined the risk of dengue virus transmission using a model that captures the probability of transmission. Our findings show that since 2001, the Ae. albopictus population in Pennsylvania has increased, becoming established and expanding in range throughout much of the state. Since 2010, imported cases of dengue fever have been recorded in Pennsylvania. Imported cases of dengue, in combination with summer temperatures conducive for virus transmission, raise the risk of local disease transmission.

Grassland productivity in response to nutrient additions and herbivory is scale-dependent.

Vegetation response to nutrient addition can vary across space, yet studies that explicitly incorporate spatial pattern into experimental approaches are rare. To explore whether there are unique spatial scales (grains) at which grass response to nutrients and herbivory is best expressed, we imposed a large (∼3.75 ha) experiment in a South African coastal grassland ecosystem. In two of six 60 נ60 m grassland plots, we imposed a scaled sampling design in which fertilizer was added in replicated sub-plots (1 נ1 m, 2 נ2 m, and 4 נ4 m). The remaining plots either received no additions or were fertilized evenly across the entire area. Three of the six plots were fenced to exclude herbivory. We calculated empirical semivariograms for all plots one year following nutrient additions to determine whether the scale of grass response (biomass and nutrient concentrations) corresponded to the scale of the sub-plot additions and compared these results to reference plots (unfertilized or unscaled) and to plots with and without herbivory. We compared empirical semivariogram parameters to parameters from semivariograms derived from a set of simulated landscapes (neutral models). Empirical semivariograms showed spatial structure in plots that received multi-scaled nutrient additions, particularly at the 2 נ2 m grain. The level of biomass response was predicted by foliar P concentration and, to a lesser extent, N, with the treatment effect of herbivory having a minimal influence. Neutral models confirmed the length scale of the biomass response and indicated few differences due to herbivory. Overall, we conclude that interpretation of nutrient limitation in grasslands is dependent on the grain used to measure grass response and that herbivory had a secondary effect.

Landscape Fragmentation as a Risk Factor for Buruli Ulcer Disease in Ghana.

Land cover and its change have been linked to Buruli ulcer (BU), a rapidly emerging tropical disease. However, it is unknown whether landscape structure affects the disease prevalence. To examine the association between landscape pattern and BU presence, we obtained land cover information for 20 villages in southwestern Ghana from high resolution satellite images, and analyzed the landscape pattern surrounding each village. Eight landscape metrics indicated that landscape patterns between BU case and reference villages were different (P < 0.05) at the broad spatial extent examined (4 km). The logistic regression models showed that landscape fragmentation and diversity indices were positively associated with BU presence in a village. Specifically, for each increase in patch density and edge density by 100 units, the likelihood of BU presence in a village increased 2.51 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36-4.61) and 4.18 (95% CI = 1.63-10.76) times, respectively. The results suggest that increased landscape fragmentation may pose a risk to the emergence of BU.

Buruli Ulcer Disease and Its Association with Land Cover in Southwestern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Buruli ulcer (BU), one of 17 neglected tropical diseases, is a debilitating skin and soft tissue infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. In tropical Africa, changes in land use and proximity to water have been associated with the disease. This study presents the first analysis of BU at the village level in southwestern Ghana, where prevalence rates are among the highest globally, and explores fine and medium-scale associations with land cover by comparing patterns both within BU clusters and surrounding landscapes. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained 339 hospital-confirmed BU cases in southwestern Ghana between 2007 and 2010. The clusters of BU were identified using spatial scan statistics and the percentages of six land cover classes were calculated based on Landsat and Rapid Eye imagery for each of 154 villages/towns. The association between BU prevalence and each land cover class was calculated using negative binomial regression models. We found that older people had a significantly higher risk for BU after considering population age structure. BU cases were positively associated with the higher percentage of water and grassland surrounding each village, but negatively associated with the percent of urban. The results also showed that BU was clustered in areas with high percentage of mining activity, suggesting that water and mining play an important and potentially interactive role in BU occurrence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study highlights the importance of multiple land use changes along the Offin River, particularly mining and agriculture, which might be associated with BU disease in southwestern Ghana. Our study is the first to use both medium- and high-resolution imagery to assess these changes. We also show that older populations (≥ 60 y) appear to be at higher risk of BU disease than children, once BU data were weighted by population age structures.

Variability in root production, phenology, and turnover rate among 12 temperate tree species.

The timing of fine root production and turnover strongly influences both the seasonal potential for soil resource acquisition among competing root systems and the plant fluxes of root carbon into soil pools. However, basic patterns and variability in the rates and timing or fine root production and turnover are generally unknown among perennial plants species. We address this shortfall using a heuristic model relating root phenology to turnover together with three years of minirhizotron observations of root dynamics in 12 temperate tree species grown in a common garden. We specifically investigated how the amount and the timing of root production differ among species and how they impact estimates of fine root turnover. Across the 12 species, there was wide variation in the timing of root production with some species producing a single root flush in early summer and others producing roots either more uniformly over the growing season or in multiple pulses. Additionally, the pattern and timing of root production appeared to be consistent across years for some species but varied in others. Root turnover rate was related to total root production (P < 0.001) as species with greater root production typically had faster root turnover rates. We also found that, within species, annual root production varied up to a threefold increase between years, which led to large interannual differences in turnover rate. Results from the heuristic model indicated that shifting the pattern or timing of root production can impact estimates of root turnover rates for root populations with life spans less than one year while estimates of root turnover rate for longer lived roots were unaffected by changes in root phenology. Overall, we suggest that more detailed observations of root phenology and production will improve fidelity of root turnover estimates. Future efforts should link patterns of root phenology and production with whole-plant life history traits and variation in annual and seasonal climate.

Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate.

Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how climate and soil factors drive variability in root dynamics of different species.

Root stress and nitrogen deposition: consequences and research priorities.

Stress within tree roots may influence whole-tree responses to nutrient deficiencies or toxic ion accumulation, but the mechanisms that govern root responses to the belowground chemical environment are poorly quantified. Currently, root production is modeled using rates of forest production and stoichiometry, but this approach alone may be insufficient to forecast variability in forest responses when physical and chemical stressors alter root lifespan, rooting depth or mycorrhizal colonization directly. Here, we review key research priorities for improving predictions of tree responses to changes in the belowground biogeochemical environment resulting from nitrogen deposition, including: limits of the optimum allocation paradigm, root physiological stress and lifespan, contingency effects that determine threshold responses across broad gradients, coupled water-biogeochemical interactions on roots, mycorrhizal dynamics that mediate root resilience and model frameworks to better simulate root feedbacks to aboveground function. We conclude that models incorporating physiological feedbacks, dynamic responses to coupled stressors, mycorrhizal interactions, and which challenge widely-accepted notions of optimum allocation, can elucidate potential thresholds of tree responses to biogeochemical stressors. Emphasis on comparative studies across species and environmental gradients, and which incorporates insights at the cellular and ecosystem level, is critical for forecasting whole-tree responses to altered biogeochemical landscapes.

Post-fire spatial patterns of soil nitrogen mineralization and microbial abundance.

Stand-replacing fires influence soil nitrogen availability and microbial community composition, which may in turn mediate post-fire successional dynamics and nutrient cycling. However, fires create patchiness at both local and landscape scales and do not result in consistent patterns of ecological dynamics. The objectives of this study were to (1) quantify the spatial structure of microbial communities in forest stands recently affected by stand-replacing fire and (2) determine whether microbial variables aid predictions of in situ net nitrogen mineralization rates in recently burned stands. The study was conducted in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and Engelmann spruce/subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii/Abies lasiocarpa) forest stands that burned during summer 2000 in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, USA). Using a fully probabilistic spatial process model and Bayesian kriging, the spatial structure of microbial lipid abundance and fungi-to-bacteria ratios were found to be spatially structured within plots two years following fire (for most plots, autocorrelation range varied from 1.5 to 10.5 m). Congruence of spatial patterns among microbial variables, in situ net N mineralization, and cover variables was evident. Stepwise regression resulted in significant models of in situ net N mineralization and included variables describing fungal and bacterial abundance, although explained variance was low (R²<0.29). Unraveling complex spatial patterns of nutrient cycling and the biotic factors that regulate it remains challenging but is critical for explaining post-fire ecosystem function, especially in Greater Yellowstone, which is projected to experience increased fire frequencies by mid 21(st) Century.

Contours of risk: spatializing human behaviors to understand disease dynamics in changing landscapes.

We echo viewpoints presented in recent publications from EcoHealth and other journals arguing for the need to understand linkages between human health, disease ecology, and landscape change. We underscore the importance of incorporating spatialities of human behaviors and perceptions in such analyses to further understandings of socio-ecological interactions mediating human health. We use Buruli ulcer, an emerging necrotizing skin infection and serious health concern in central Ghana, to illustrate our argument.

Predicting fine root lifespan from plant functional traits in temperate trees.

Although linkages of leaf and whole-plant traits to leaf lifespan have been rigorously investigated, there is a limited understanding of similar linkages of whole-plant and fine root traits to root lifespan. In comparisons across species, do suites of traits found in leaves also exist for roots, and can these traits be used to predict root lifespan? We observed the fine root lifespan of 12 temperate tree species using minirhizotrons in a common garden and compared their median lifespans with fine-root and whole-plant traits. We then determined which set of combined traits would be most useful in predicting patterns of root lifespan. Median root lifespan ranged widely among species (95-336 d). Root diameter, calcium content, and tree wood density were positively related to root lifespan, whereas specific root length, nitrogen (N) : carbon (C) ratio, and plant growth rate were negatively related to root lifespan. Root diameter and plant growth rate, together (R² = 0.62) or in combination with root N : C ratio (R² = 0.76), were useful predictors of root lifespan across the 12 species. Our results highlight linkages between fine root lifespan in temperate trees and plant functional traits that may reduce uncertainty in predictions of root lifespan or turnover across species at broader spatial scales.

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century.

Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972-1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (~12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100-300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire-climate-vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.