Projected shifts in loggerhead sea turtle thermal habitat in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean due to climate change.

It is well established that sea turtles are vulnerable to atmospheric and oceanographic shifts associated with climate change. However, few studies have formally projected how their seasonal marine habitat may shift in response to warming ocean temperatures. Here we used a high-resolution global climate model and a large satellite tagging dataset to project changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for loggerheads along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Between 2009 and 2018, we deployed 196 satellite tags on loggerheads within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf region, a seasonal foraging area. Tag location data combined with depth and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) were used to characterize the species' current thermal range in the MAB. The best-fitting model indicated that the habitat envelope for tagged loggerheads consisted of SST ranging from 11.0° to 29.7 °C and depths between 0 and 105.0 m. The calculated core bathythermal range consisted of SSTs between 15.0° and 28.0 °C and depths between 8.0 and 92.0 m, with the highest probability of presence occurred in regions with SST between 17.7° and 25.3 °C and at depths between 26.1 and 74.2 m. This model was then forced by a high-resolution global climate model under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to project loggerhead probability of presence over the next 80 years. Our results suggest that loggerhead thermal habitat and seasonal duration will likely increase in northern regions of the NW Atlantic shelf. This change in spatiotemporal range for sea turtles in a region of high anthropogenic use may prompt adjustments to the localized protected species conservation measures.

Riders on the storm: loggerhead sea turtles detect and respond to a major hurricane in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

BACKGROUND: Extreme weather events, including hurricanes, have considerable biological, ecological, and anthropogenic impacts. Hurricane Irene caused substantial economic damage when it hit the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) off of the eastern United States in August of 2011. The MAB is highly stratified during the summer when a strong thermocline separates warm, surface water from deep, cold water, and this oceanographic phenomenon makes modeling hurricane strength difficult. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) forage in the MAB primarily during the stratified season and their dive behavior to the bottom allows them to experience the oceanographic conditions of the entire water column. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed the movements and dive behavior of juvenile and adult-sized loggerhead sea turtles (n = 18) that were foraging in the MAB as Hurricane Irene moved through the region. The satellite tags deployed on these turtles transmitted location data and dive behavior as well as sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature-depth profiles during this time. RESULTS: Behavioral and environmental shifts were observed during and after the hurricane compared to conditions before the storm. During the hurricane, most of the turtles (n = 15) moved north of their pre-storm foraging grounds. Following the storm, some turtles left their established foraging sites (n = 8) moving south by 7.3-135.0 km, and for the others that remained (n = 10), 12% of the observed dives were longer (0.54-1.11 h) than dives observed before the storm. The in situ data collected by the turtle-borne tags captured the cooling of the SST (Mean difference = 4.47°C) and the deepening of the thermocline relative to the pre-storm conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Some of the loggerhead behavior observed relative to a passing hurricane differed from the regular pattern of seasonal movement expected for turtles that forage in the MAB. These data documented the shifts in sea turtle behavior and distribution during an ecosystem-level perturbation and the recorded in situ data demonstrated that loggerheads observe environmental changes to the entire water column, including during extreme weather events.

Summering on the bank: Seasonal distribution and abundance of monkfish on Georges Bank.

The American monkfish is an important commercial species that is widely distributed across a range of depths and temperatures from North Carolina to southern Nova Scotia, including on Georges Bank. We examined changes in the seasonal distribution and relative abundance of monkfish in the scallop access areas in Closed Area I and Closed Area II on Georges Bank using catch data from a three-year seasonal scallop dredge survey. Over the course of the survey, more than 6,000 monkfish were caught and measured, and clear seasonal changes in monkfish abundance were documented. Monkfish catch peaked in the summer and early fall when they were caught across the entire survey area, while they were caught only in deeper waters at the edges of the bank in the winter. Monkfish relative abundance was modeled using a generalized linear mixed model with a Tweedie distribution, and the final model, with month, depth, and bottom temperature as fixed effects, effectively explained the seasonal shifts in the location and relative abundance of monkfish observed during this study. The results suggest that monkfish movements are driven by seasonal changes in bottom temperature. Management measures for monkfish are determined primarily based on data collected during the Northeast Fisheries Science Center bottom trawl surveys, yet this survey catches few monkfish, adding uncertainty to stock assessments. Our research indicates that increasing the use of dredge surveys to collect data on monkfish would be a positive step toward improving monkfish assessments. If monkfish movements are impacted by changes in thermal habitat, their distributions may shift in response to climate change, increasing the need for improved monkfish assessment strategies to effectively manage the species in the future.