ABSTRACT
Aquatic invasive species (AIS) are one of the greatest threats to the functioning of aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Once an invasive species has been introduced to a new region, many governments develop management strategies to reduce further spread. Nevertheless, managing AIS in a new region is challenging because of the vast areas that need protection and limited resources. Spatial heterogeneity in invasion risk is driven by environmental suitability and propagule pressure, which can be used to prioritize locations for surveillance and intervention activities. To better understand invasion risk across aquatic landscapes, we developed a simulation model to estimate the likelihood of a waterbody becoming invaded with an AIS. The model included waterbodies connected via a multilayer network that included boater movements and hydrological connections. In a case study of Minnesota, we used zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) and starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) as model species. We simulated the impacts of management scenarios developed by stakeholders and created a decision-support tool available through an online application provided as part of the AIS Explorer dashboard. Our baseline model revealed that 89% of new zebra mussel invasions and 84% of new starry stonewort invasions occurred through boater movements, establishing it as a primary pathway of spread and offering insights beyond risk estimates generated by traditional environmental suitability models alone. Our results highlight the critical role of interventions applied to boater movements to reduce AIS dispersal.
Modelo del riesgo de la invasión de especies acuáticas dispersadas por movimiento de botes y conexiones entre ríos Resumen Las especies acuáticas invasoras (EAI) son una de las principales amenazas para el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas acuáticos a nivel mundial. Una vez que una especie invasora ha sido introducida a una nueva región, muchos gobiernos desarrollan estrategias de manejo para disminuir la dispersión. Sin embargo, el manejo de las especies acuáticas invasoras en una nueva región se complica debido a las amplias áreas que necesitan protección y los recursos limitados. La heterogeneidad espacial de un riesgo de invasión es causada por la idoneidad ambiental y la presión de propágulo, que puede usarse para priorizar la ubicación de las actividades de vigilancia e intervención. Desarrollamos una simulación para estimar la probabilidad de que un cuerpo de agua sea invadido por EAI para tener un mejor entendimiento del riesgo de invasión en los paisajes acuáticos. El modelo incluyó cuencas conectadas a través de una red multicapa que incluía movimiento de botes y conexiones hidrológicas. Usamos como especies modelo a Dreissena polymorpha y a Nitellopsis obtusa en un estudio de caso en Minnesota. Simulamos el impacto de los escenarios de manejo desarrollado por los actores y creamos una herramienta de decisiones por medio de una aplicación en línea proporcionada como parte del tablero del Explorer de EAI. Nuestro modelo de línea base reveló que el 89% de las invasiones nuevas de D. polymorpha y el 84% de las de N. obtusa ocurrieron debido al movimiento de los botes, lo que lo estableció como una vía primaria de dispersión y nos proporcionó información más allá de las estimaciones de riesgo generadas por los modelos tradicionales de idoneidad ambiental. Nuestros resultados resaltan el papel crítico de las intervenciones aplicadas al movimiento de los botes para reducir la dispersión de especies acuáticas invasoras.
ABSTRACT
Invasions of aquatic invasive species have caused significant economic and ecological damage to global aquatic ecosystems. Once an invasive population has established in a new habitat, eradication can be financially and logistically impossible, motivating management strategies to rely heavily upon prevention measures to reduce the introduction and spread. To be productive, on-the-ground management of aquatic invasive species requires effective decision-making surrounding the allocation of limited resources. Watercraft inspections play an important role in managing aquatic invasive species by preventing the overland transport of invasive species between waterbodies and providing education to boaters. In this study, we developed and tested an interactive web-based decision-support tool, AIS Explorer: Prioritization for Watercraft Inspections, to guide AIS managers in developing efficient watercraft inspection plans. The decision-support tool is informed by a network-based algorithm that maximized the number of inspected watercraft that move from AIS infested to uninfested lakes within and between counties in Minnesota, USA. It was iteratively built with stakeholder feedback, including consultations with county managers, beta-testing of the web-based application, and workshops to educate and train end-users. The co-development and implementation of data-driven decision support tools demonstrate how interdisciplinary methods can be used to connect science and management to support decision-making. The AIS Explorer: Prioritization for Watercraft Inspections application makes optimized research outputs accessible in multiple dynamic forms that maintain pace with discovery of new infestations and local needs. In addition, the decision support tool has supported improved and closer communication between AIS managers and researchers on this topic.
