Comparing models for quantitative risk assessment: an application to the European Registry of foreign body injuries in children.

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well.

Scale-up approach in CATI surveys for estimating the number of foreign body injuries in the aero-digestive tract in children.

Foreign body injuries are a well-known threat to children due to the high risk of ingestion of small objects and choking. In order to depict the epidemiological framework of such injuries, data are mostly available for hospitalizations and partially for emergency room visits. The hidden part of the phenomenon consisting of minor self-resolved injuries is still unknown. The purpose of this paper is to provide an estimate of the overall burden of such injuries in children in Italy. Our paper proposes the use of the scale up technique to overcome most of the pitfalls of classical techniques in the estimation of the number of children aged 0-14 that suffered a foreign body injury in 2004. Our results, based on a CATI survey on 1,081 women, show that the estimated number of children under 15 years that incurred in a foreign body injury was 15,829 (95% CI: 14,376-17,282), of these 12,844 were treated in hospital or in emergency department (95% CI: 11,535-14,153). The scale-up method in conjunction with a CATI survey provides a reliable estimate of the size of hard-to-count populations as those of injured children at lower costs with respect to classical sampling schemes.

Modeling the risk: innovative approaches to understand and quantify the risk of severe FB injury.

OBJECTIVES: The entry of a small item into the respiratory or digestive tract is still one of the leading causes of injuries in children up to 14 years old. The aim of the paper is to provide a quantitative risk assessment analysis for identifying consumer product features which contribute to increase the risk of sustaining a severe injury. METHODS: Data on foreign body injuries were collected in 28 European countries and one Pakistani hospital. A total of 7296 cases were classified according to ICD-9CM 931-935. Information about injuries included age and gender of the injured child, circumstances of the accident and foreign body features. A classification tree was set up in order to analyze the impact of the item features like volume shape and rigidity on the severity of the injury. RESULTS: Males are involved in severe injuries more often than females. Most severe injuries when the foreign body is localized in the ears were due to objects with volume lesser than 49 mm(3). Volume cut-off is slightly higher for foreign bodies that have been found in the nose (55 mm(3)). Objects with conforming rigidity pose children to higher risk of severe injury. CONCLUSIONS: The presence and supervision of an adult is crucial in reducing the risk for severe injuries both in pharynx and laryhnx and in mouth.

Information extraction approaches to unconventional data sources for "Injury Surveillance System": the case of newspapers clippings.

Injury Surveillance Systems based on traditional hospital records or clinical data have the advantage of being a well established, highly reliable source of information for making an active surveillance on specific injuries, like choking in children. However, they suffer the drawback of delays in making data available to the analysis, due to inefficiencies in data collection procedures. In this sense, the integration of clinical based registries with unconventional data sources like newspaper articles has the advantage of making the system more useful for early alerting. Usage of such sources is difficult since information is only available in the form of free natural-language documents rather than structured databases as required by traditional data mining techniques. Information Extraction (IE) addresses the problem of transforming a corpus of textual documents into a more structured database. In this paper, on a corpora of Italian newspapers articles related to choking in children due to ingestion/inhalation of foreign body we compared the performance of three IE algorithms- (a) a classical rule based system which requires a manual annotation of the rules; (ii) a rule based system which allows for the automatic building of rules; (b) a machine learning method based on Support Vector Machine. Although some useful indications are extracted from the newspaper clippings, this approach is at the time far from being routinely implemented for injury surveillance purposes.

Ingested foreign bodies causing complications and requiring hospitalization in European children: results from the ESFBI study.

BACKGROUND: In young children, particularly those aged 1-3 years, aerodigestive tract foreign bodies (FB) are a common pediatric problem. The aim of the present study was therefore to characterize the risk of complications and prolonged hospitalization due to FB in the upper digestive tract in terms of the characteristics of the injured patients (age, gender), typology and features of the FB, the circumstances of the accident and hospitalization details. METHODS: A retrospective study was done in 19 hospitals in 19 corresponding European countries of 186 cases of injury due to the presence of an FB in the mouth, esophagus and stomach (ICD935), out of the 2103 overall cases of FB reported in other locations. RESULTS: Complications arose in 14 cases and hospitalization was required in 164 cases. No deaths were observed. A higher incidence of hospitalization in male patients (61%) was observed. Median age for children who experienced complications was 2 years old. The most common FB removal technique was esophagoscopy. In the majority of cases the children were treated by the ENT Department. The most common FB were coins, batteries and fish bones among food. CONCLUSION: Because batteries, as well as coins and fish bones among food were the most common type of FB encountered, and because recent development of technology has accelerated broad use of disk-type batteries, parents should be aware of this hazard, and an educational campaign for public education for this serious problem is advisable.

Foreign bodies in the ears causing complications and requiring hospitalization in children 0-14 age: results from the ESFBI study.

OBJECTIVE: The occurrence of foreign bodies (FBs) in otorhinolaryngological practice is a common and serious problem among patients in paediatric age. The aim of this work is to characterize the risk of complications and prolonged hospitalization due to foreign bodies in ears in terms of the characteristics of the injured patients (age, gender), typology and features of the foreign bodies, the circumstances of the accident and the hospitalization's details. METHODS: A retrospective study in major hospitals of 19 European countries was realized on children aged 0-14 with regard to the characteristics of the injured child and the FB, the circumstances of the accident and finally the hospitalization's details. RESULTS: Four hundred and ninety eight cases were reported with an injury due to insertion of a FB in the ear (ICD931). Complications were observed in 65 (13.05%) children. Complications were lesion of auricular canal, perforation of tympanic membrane, local inflammation, bleeding, pain and otitis. Hospitalization lasted in median 1 day. The 82% of hospitalized children are in the "day hospital" regimen. The spherical, rigid and inorganic FB caused hospitalization in 61%, 63% and 84% of cases, respectively. CONCLUSION: Foreign body injuries in the ears are commonly encountered in clinical practice. The removal by non-ENT personnel can be associated to complications especially in children who have a variable level of cooperation. Occasions for the injury were mostly playing in the absence of watchful caregivers. Since prevention is the most essential way to deal with FB injuries public education should be encouraged.

Foreign bodies in the nose causing complications and requiring hospitalization in children 0-14 age: results from the European survey of foreign bodies injuries study.

INTRODUCTION: The occurrence of foreign bodies (FB) in otorhinolaryngological practice is a common and serious problem among pediatric patients. The aim of this work is to characterize the risk of complications and prolonged hospitalization due to FBs in the nose in terms of the characteristics of the injured patients (age, gender), typology and features of the FBs, the circumstances of the accident and the hospitalization's details. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of FB associated injuries, assessing the characteristics of the injured child and the FB, the circumstances of the accident and finally the hospitalization details took place on children aged 0-14 in major hospitals of 19 European countries. RESULTS: In total 688 cases were assessed. Complications and hospitalization occurred in 59 and 52 cases, respectively. Over 51% of patients were females. The median age of children who experienced a complication was four years. In the majority of cases FB removal was accomplished by means of a non-invasive technique (rhinoscopy with a nasal speculum or rigid fiberoptic endoscope. The majority of children were directly referred to the ENT department. The most common FBs associated with complications and hospitalization were nuts, seeds, berries, corn and beans, batteries and other inorganic objects such as broken parts of pens, paper clips and pearls. Over 38% of the injuries occurred under adults' supervision. DISCUSSION: FB injuries in the nose are commonly encountered in clinical practice. Even if the presence of a FB is not usually life threatening, it may result in long-term complications such as perforation of the septum. Because the risks associated with FB injuries, public education about this problem is recommended.

Foreign bodies in the upper airways causing complications and requiring hospitalization in children aged 0-14 years: results from the ESFBI study.

Foreign body (FB) aspiration/inhalation is a serious problem because it is still a cause of death in children, especially among those younger than 4 years. The objective of this paper is to characterize the risk of complications and prolonged hospitalization due to foreign bodies (FB) in the upper airways in terms of the characteristics of the injured patients (age, gender), typology and features of the FBs, the circumstances of the accident and the hospitalization details. A retrospective study in the major hospitals of 19 European countries was realized on injuries occurred in the years 2000-2002 and identified by means of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes listed on hospital discharge records. In 170 cases, it was reported an injury due to the presence of a FB in the pharynx and larynx (ICD933) and in 552 records, it was reported a FB located in the trachea, bronchi and lungs (ICD934). Unlike the complications that occurred in 70 (12.7%) of cases, the hospitalizations were present in 433 (77.6) of the total injuries. One patient died. A higher incidence in males (63%) was observed. Median age for children who experienced complications was 2 years. The most common FB removal technique was laryngoscopy and bronchoscopy. In majority of the cases, children were treated by ENT department. The most common FBs were nuts, seeds, berries, corn and beans. In general, small, round crunchy foods pose a risk of choking. Since prevention is the most essential key to deal with these types of injuries, more effort in caregivers' public education is warranted.

Predicting severity of foreign body injuries in children in upper airways: an approach based on regression trees.

The entry of a small item into the upper airways is one of the leading causes of injuries in children up to 14 years old. The aim of this study is to characterize types of objects causing choking along with the features of the children involved in the accident and compare results with current standards. The European Survey on Foreign Bodies Injuries Study (ESFBI) collected data on foreign body injuries from 19 European countries. The data from ESFBI were selected according to the ICD-9-CM codes 933 (foreign body in the pharynx and larynx) and 934 (foreign body in the trachea, bronchi, and lungs). Both a classification tree and a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) have been set up to predict the probability that an injured child experiences a hospitalization. The classification tree provides flowchart-type decision rules and allows for analyzing the impact of the item features, the children characteristics, and the circumstances of the accidents on the severity of the foreign body injuries. Results showed that children younger than 3.5 who are involved in an accident have a high probability to experience a hospitalization.

Risk factors and geographical heterogeneity in unintentional home injuries incidence rate: new evidence based on Multiscopo survey in Italy.

Home injuries together, with road traffic accidents, are estimated to be the third cause of death in Italy (Arokiasamy and Krishnan 1994). However, as in most other countries, in Italy there is a lack of information on home injuries and on how differences in geographical patterns may influence the scope and magnitude of this phenomenon. By analysing a multipurpose large survey (Multiscopo) carried out annually, geographical heterogeneity in home injuries incidence rate can be investigated. The aim of this study is the assessment of possible differences in geographical patterns among the Italian regions making use of a re-analysis of Multiscopo home injury data. The study results show that Italian regions differ greatly in the number of home injuries. The geographical heterogeneity may be due to the unemployment rate and the incidence of poverty that is greater in the Southern and Insular regions than in other zones. Other socio-economic variables such as alcohol consumption can increase the risk of injury in the home. To prevent them it could be useful to organize campaigns aimed at increasing the awareness among people about this problem.