Prognostic value of screening instrument based on the Dutch national VMS guidelines for older patients in the emergency department.

PURPOSE: It is important to identify which older patients attending the emergency department are at risk of adverse outcomes to introduce preventive interventions. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a shortened screening instrument based on the Dutch national Safety Management System [Veiligheidsmanagementsysteem (VMS)] guidelines for adverse outcomes in older emergency department patients. METHODS: A cohort study was performed including patients aged 70 years or older who visited the emergency department. Adverse outcomes included hospital admission, return emergency department visits within 30 days, and 90-day mortality. The prognostic value of the VMS-score was assessed for these adverse events and, in addition, a prediction model was developed for 90-day mortality. RESULTS: A high VMS-score was independently associated with an increased risk of hospital admission [OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.32-3.86)] and 90-day mortality [HR 2.48 (95% CI 1.31-4.71)]. The individual VMS-questions regarding history of delirium and help in activities of daily living were associated with these outcomes as well. A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed and showed satisfactory calibration and good discrimination [AUC 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.87)]. A cut-off point that selected 30% of patients at the highest risk yielded a sensitivity of 67.4%, a specificity of 75.3%, a positive predictive value of 28.5%, and a negative predictive value of 94.1%. CONCLUSION: The shortened VMS-based screening instrument showed to be of good prognostic value for hospitalization and 90-day mortality. The prediction model for mortality showed promising results and will be further validated and optimized.

Pooling European all-cause mortality: methodology and findings for the seasons 2008/2009 to 2010/2011.

Several European countries have timely all-cause mortality monitoring. However, small changes in mortality may not give rise to signals at the national level. Pooling data across countries may overcome this, particularly if changes in mortality occur simultaneously. Additionally, pooling may increase the power of monitoring populations with small numbers of expected deaths, e.g. younger age groups or fertile women. Finally, pooled analyses may reveal patterns of diseases across Europe. We describe a pooled analysis of all-cause mortality across 16 European countries. Two approaches were explored. In the 'summarized' approach, data across countries were summarized and analysed as one overall country. In the 'stratified' approach, heterogeneities between countries were taken into account. Pooling using the 'stratified' approach was the most appropriate as it reflects variations in mortality. Excess mortality was observed in all winter seasons albeit slightly higher in 2008/09 than 2009/10 and 2010/11. In the 2008/09 season, excess mortality was mainly in elderly adults. In 2009/10, when pandemic influenza A(H1N1) dominated, excess mortality was mainly in children. The 2010/11 season reflected a similar pattern, although increased mortality in children came later. These patterns were less clear in analyses based on data from individual countries. We have demonstrated that with stratified pooling we can combine local mortality monitoring systems and enhance monitoring of mortality across Europe.

A high etendue spectrometer suitable for core charge eXchange recombination spectroscopy on ITER.

A feasibility study for the use of core charge exchange recombination spectroscopy on ITER has shown that accurate measurements on the helium ash require a spectrometer with a high etendue of 1mm(2)sr to comply with the measurement requirements [S. Tugarinov et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 74, 2075 (2003)]. To this purpose such an instrument has been developed consisting of three separate wavelength channels (to measure simultaneously He/Be, C/Ne, and H/D/T together with the Doppler shifted direct emission of the diagnostic neutral beam, the beam emission (BES) signal), combining high dispersion (0.02 nm/pixel), sufficient resolution (0.2 nm), high efficiency (55%), and extended wavelength range (14 nm) at high etendue. The combined measurement of the BES along the same sightline within a third wavelength range provides the possibility for in situ calibration of the charge eXchange recombination spectroscopy signals. In addition, the option is included to use the same instrument for measurements of the fast fluctuations of the beam emission intensity up to 2 MHz, with the aim to study MHD activity.

Mumps epidemic in orthodox religious low-vaccination communities in the Netherlands and Canada, 2007 to 2009.

We assessed the epidemiological characteristics of a mumps virus epidemic (genotype D) that occurred in the Netherlands between August 2007 and May 2009 and its association with a subsequent mumps outbreak in Canada. In the Netherlands, five data sources were used: notifications (only mandatory since the end of 2008) (56 cases), laboratory confirmation data (177 cases), a sentinel general practitioner (GP) database (275 cases), hospitalisation data (29 cases) and weekly virological reports (96 cases). The median age of cases in the notification, laboratory and GP databases ranged from 13 to 15 years. The proportion of cases that were unvaccinated ranged from 65% to 85% in the notification, laboratory and GP databases. Having orthodox Protestant beliefs was the main reason for not being vaccinated. In Canada, a mumps virus strain indistinguishable from the Dutch epidemic strain was detected between February and October 2008 in an orthodox Protestant community with historical and family links to the affected community in the Netherlands, suggesting that spread to Canada had occurred. Prevention and control of vaccine-preventable diseases among population subgroups with low vaccination coverage remains a priority.

Fatty acids in breast milk and development of atopic eczema and allergic sensitisation in infancy.

BACKGROUND: One of the explanations for the increasing prevalence of atopic diseases is a relative low perinatal supply of n-3 fatty acids. However, this does not explain the protective effects of whole-fat dairy products or high levels of transfatty acids in breast milk, observed in some studies. We evaluated the role of perinatal supply of fatty acids in the early development of atopic eczema and allergic sensitisation. METHODS: Fatty acids, including n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPs) as well as ruminant fatty acids (rumenic acid, cis-9,trans-11-C18:2 conjugated linoleic acid; and vaccenic acid, trans-11-C18:1), were determined in breast milk sampled at 1 month postpartum from 310 mother-infant pairs in the KOALA Birth Cohort Study, the Netherlands. Children were followed for atopic outcomes until 2 years of age. RESULTS: Higher concentrations of n-3 LCPs as well as ruminant fatty acids were associated with lower risk of (1) parent-reported eczema, (2) atopic dermatitis (UK Working Party criteria), and (3) sensitisation at age 1 year (as revealed by specific serum IgE levels to cow's milk, hen's egg and/or peanut). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the inverse associations between ruminant fatty acid concentrations in breast milk and atopic outcomes were found to be independent from n-3 LCPs. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm a protective role of preformed n-3 LCPs in the development of atopic disease. Moreover, this is the first study in humans confirming results from animal studies of protective effects of ruminant fatty acids against the development of atopic manifestations.

Cytokines and soluble CD14 in breast milk in relation with atopic manifestations in mother and infant (KOALA Study).

BACKGROUND: Conflicting evidence exists concerning the protective role of breastfeeding in allergy and atopic disease aetiology. Breast milk contains biologically active molecules influencing the innate immune system of newborns. OBJECTIVE: We aim to assess whether cytokines (TGF-beta1, IL-10 and IL-12) and soluble CD14 (sCD14) in breast milk are influenced by maternal atopic constitution and modify the development of atopic manifestations in infants. METHODS: Milk samples were collected at 1 month post-partum of 315 lactating mothers participating in the ongoing KOALA Birth Cohort Study. The cytokines and sCD14 were analysed by ELISA in the aqueous fraction. We compared the concentrations of cytokines and sCD14 in breast milk between mothers with and without an allergic history and also with and without allergic sensitization (specific IgE). Associations of cytokines and sCD14 with the development of eczema, wheezing in the first 2 years of life and allergic sensitization of infants at the age of 2 years were analysed by multivariate logistic regression analyses to correct for confounders. RESULTS: We found higher sCD14 levels in mothers with a positive vs. negative allergic history (7.6 vs. 7.0 microg/mL; P = 0.04) and in mothers who were sensitized vs. non-sensitized (7.8 vs. 7.1 microg/mL; P = 0.03). None of the studied immune factors were associated with infant's atopic outcomes. IL-10 was not detected above the detection limit of 0.2 pg/mL. CONCLUSION: Taking together the results of the present and previous studies, we conclude that there is no convincing evidence for a relation between TGF-beta1, sCD14, IL-10 or IL-12 in breast milk and atopic manifestations in infants.