Impact of Pyrethroid Plus Piperonyl Butoxide Synergist-Treated Nets on Malaria Incidence 24 Months after a National Distribution Campaign in Rwanda.

Malaria remains a public health priority in Rwanda. The use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) is a key malaria prevention tool. However, expanding pyrethroid resistance threatens the gains made in malaria control. In 2018, the Rwandan malaria program strategic approach included the use of newer types of ITNs such as pyrethroid plus piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist-treated nets to counter pyrethroid resistance. In February 2020, 5,892,280 ITNs were distributed countrywide; 1,085,517 of these were PBO nets distributed in five districts. This study was a pragmatic observational study that leveraged the 2020 net distribution and routinely collected confirmed malaria cases to determine the impact of PBO nets 1 and 2 years after ITN distribution. No differences were observed in the average net coverage between the PBO and standard net districts. A significant reduction in malaria incidence was reported in both the PBO (P = 0.019) and two control districts that received standard nets (P = 0.008) 1 year after ITN distribution. However, 2 years after, this reduction was sustained only in the PBO (P = 0.013) and not in the standard net districts (P = 0.685). One year after net distribution, all districts had a significant reduction in malaria incidence rate (incidence rate ratio < 1). In the second year, incidence in districts with PBO nets continued to decrease, whereas in districts with standard nets, incidences were similar to predistribution levels. The results indicate that PBO nets are a promising tool to combat pyrethroid resistance in Rwanda, with protective effects of up to 2 years post distribution.

Author Correction: Global disease outbreaks associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event.

Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14-81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5-28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Associations between seasonal influenza and meteorological parameters in Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Seasonal influenza affects a considerable proportion of the global population each year. We assessed the association between subnational influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in three Central America countries, i.e. Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. Using virologic data from each country's national influenza centre, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and air temperature and specific humidity data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System, we applied logistic regression methods for each of the five sub-national locations studied. Influenza activity was represented by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The models were adjusted for the potentially confounding co-circulating respiratory viruses, seasonality and previous weeks' influenza activity. We found that influenza activity was proportionally associated (P<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations [odds ratio (OR) 1.21-1.56 per g/kg], while associations with temperature (OR 0.69-0.81 per °C) and rainfall (OR 1.01-1.06 per mm/day) were location-dependent. Among the meteorological parameters, specific humidity had the highest contribution (~3-15%) to the model in all but one location. As model validation, we estimated influenza activity for periods, in which the data was not used in training the models. The correlation coefficients between the estimates and the observed were ≤0.1 in 2 locations and between 0.6-0.86 in three others. In conclusion, our study revealed a proportional association between influenza activity and specific humidity in selected areas from the three Central America countries.

Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts.

BACKGROUND: Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel. METHODS: We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location. RESULTS: Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.

The role of temperature and humidity on seasonal influenza in tropical areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013.

BACKGROUND: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. METHOD/FINDINGS: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5-0.9). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others.

CytoSys: a tool for extracting cell-cycle-related expression dynamics from static data.

Computational models of biological processes are important building blocks in Systems Biology studies. Calibration and validation are two important steps for moving a mathematical model to a computational model. While calibration refers to finding numerical value of the coefficients such as rate constants in a mathematical model, validation refers to verifying that the calibrated model behaves the same as the biological system under previously unseen conditions such as environmental changes (e.g., drug treatment) or mutations. In lieu of direct measurements of rate constants, modeling of the molecular mechanisms that govern biological behaviors may be able to use dynamic expression profiles of reactant biomolecules for calibration. For validation, similar data, obtained under new conditions, are probably better than direct measurements of rate constants. In any case, direct measurement of rate constants is almost always impractical and difficult or impossible. Here, we show a computer-assisted methodology to extract embedded dynamic profiles of cell-cycle proteins from statically sampled, multivariate cytometry data guided by heuristics assembled from canonical cell-cycle knowledge. The methodology is implemented using standard "list mode" cytometry data-processing software followed by CytoSys - a software tool with an easy-to-use graphical interface. We demonstrate the use of CytoSys with a case study of exponentially growing, human erythroleukemia cells and extract the dynamic expression profiles of cyclin A for calibrating an existing deterministic mathematical model of the cell cycle.

Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a significant public health concern in Afghanistan. Currently, approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, live in a malaria-endemic area. Afghanistan's diverse landscape and terrain contributes to the heterogeneous malaria prevalence across the country. Understanding the role of environmental variables on malaria transmission can further the effort for malaria control programme. METHODS: Provincial malaria epidemiological data (2004-2007) collected by the health posts in 23 provinces were used in conjunction with space-borne observations from NASA satellites. Specifically, the environmental variables, including precipitation, temperature and vegetation index measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer, were used. Regression techniques were employed to model malaria cases as a function of environmental predictors. The resulting model was used for predicting malaria risks in Afghanistan. The entire time series except the last 6 months is used for training, and the last 6-month data is used for prediction and validation. RESULTS: Vegetation index, in general, is the strongest predictor, reflecting the fact that irrigation is the main factor that promotes malaria transmission in Afghanistan. Surface temperature is the second strongest predictor. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, as it may not directly lead to higher larval population. Autoregressiveness of the malaria epidemiological data is apparent from the analysis. The malaria time series are modelled well, with provincial average R2 of 0.845. Although the R2 for prediction has larger variation, the total 6-month cases prediction is only 8.9% higher than the actual cases. CONCLUSIONS: The provincial monthly malaria cases can be modelled and predicted using satellite-measured environmental parameters with reasonable accuracy. The Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan is aimed to develop a cost-effective surveillance system that includes forecasting, early warning and detection. The predictive and early warning capabilities shown in this paper support this strategy.

Modeling and predicting seasonal influenza transmission in warm regions using climatological parameters.

BACKGROUND: Influenza transmission is often associated with climatic factors. As the epidemic pattern varies geographically, the roles of climatic factors may not be unique. Previous in vivo studies revealed the direct effect of winter-like humidity on air-borne influenza transmission that dominates in regions with temperate climate, while influenza in the tropics is more effectively transmitted through direct contact. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using time series model, we analyzed the role of climatic factors on the epidemiology of influenza transmission in two regions characterized by warm climate: Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). These two regions have comparable temperature but distinctly different rainfall. Specifically we employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model along with climatic parameters as measured from ground stations and NASA satellites. Our studies showed that including the climatic variables as input series result in models with better performance than the univariate model where the influenza cases depend only on its past values and error signal. The best model for Hong Kong influenza was obtained when Land Surface Temperature (LST), rainfall and relative humidity were included as input series. Meanwhile for Maricopa County we found that including either maximum atmospheric pressure or mean air temperature gave the most improvement in the model performances. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results showed that including the environmental variables generally increases the prediction capability. Therefore, for countries without advanced influenza surveillance systems, environmental variables can be used for estimating influenza transmission at present and in the near future.

The role of dynamic stimulation pattern in the analysis of bistable intracellular networks.

Bistable systems play an important role in the functioning of living cells. Depending on the strength of the necessary positive feedback one can distinguish between (irreversible) "one-way switch" or (reversible) "toggle-switch" type behavior. Besides the well- established steady-state properties, some important characteristics of bistable systems arise from an analysis of their dynamics. We demonstrate that a supercritical stimulus amplitude is not sufficient to move the system from the lower (off-state) to the higher branch (on-state) for either a step or a pulse input. A switching surface is identified for the system as a function of the initial condition, input pulse amplitude and duration (a supercritical signal). We introduce the concept of bounded autonomy for single level systems with a pulse input. Towards this end, we investigate and characterize the role of the duration of the stimulus. Furthermore we show, that a minimal signal power is also necessary to change the steady state of the bistable system. This limiting signal power is independent of the applied stimulus and is determined only by systems parameters. These results are relevant for the design of experiments, where it is often difficult to create a defined pattern for the stimulus. Furthermore, intracellular processes, like receptor internalization, do manipulate the level of stimulus such that level and duration of the stimulus is conducive to characteristic behavior.

Complex systems biology approach to understanding coordination of JAK-STAT signaling.

In this work, we search for coordination as an organizing principle in a complex signaling system using a multilevel hierarchical paradigm. The objective is to explain the underlying mechanism of Interferon (IFN(gamma)) induced JAK-STAT (specifically JAK1/JAK2-STAT1) pathway behavior. Starting with a mathematical model of the pathway from the literature, we modularize the system using biological knowledge via principles of biochemical cohesion, biological significance, and functionality. The modularized system is then used as a basis for in silico inhibition, knockdown/deletion and perturbation experiments to discover a coordination mechanism. Our analysis shows that a module representing the SOCS1 complex can be identified as the coordinator. Analysis of the coordinator can then be used for the selection of biological experiments for the discovery of 'soft' molecular drug targets, that could lead to the development of improved therapeutics. The coordinator identified is also being investigated to determine its relationship to pathological conditions.