Three-year's changes in glucose tolerance status in the Bellville South cohort: rates and phenotypes associated with progression.

AIMS: To determine the phenotypes associated with progression to type 2 diabetes or worsening in glucose tolerance during a 3-year follow-up of a community-based cohort in Cape Town, South Africa. METHODS: A total of 198 eligible subjects (72.3% women) aged 55.2 years, from the Bellville-South community were followed-up between 2008 and 2011. Baseline and follow-up data collections included glucose tolerance status, anthropometric, blood pressure, lipids, insulin, γ-glutamyltransferase, cotinine, creatinine and HbA1c. Progression in glucose tolerance status at 3-year was the composite of new-onset diabetes and any worsening in glucose tolerance status. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of progression in glucose tolerance status was: 16.2% (32 participants including 11 with new-onset diabetes), and increased in a stepwise fashion with the number of components of metabolic syndrome (MetS). In age and sex-adjusted logistic regression analyses, MetS [odd ratio: 3.08 (95% CI: 1.34-7.10)], HbA1c [5.26 (1.94-14.24)], HDL-cholesterol [0.05 (0.01-0.33)], γ-glutamyltransferase [1.99 (1.07-3.67)], triglycerides [1.71 (1.13-2.58)] and total/HDL-cholesterol [1.45 (1.08-1.93)] were significant predictors of progression, while borderline effects were observed for baseline glucose and diastolic blood pressure. Markers of adiposity were mostly stable or improved among non-progressors during follow-up, but deteriorated significantly among progressors, resulting in significant statistical interactions. CONCLUSIONS: High rates of deterioration of glucose status over time were found in our population, with nearly one-fifth of them acquiring a glucose tolerance worse status within a very short follow-up. Our study extends to this setting the well-known utility of phenotypes of MetS single or in combination, in predicting worsening in glucose tolerance status.