Balancing data privacy and usability in the federal statistical system.

The federal statistical system is experiencing competing pressures for change. On the one hand, for confidentiality reasons, much socially valuable data currently held by federal agencies is either not made available to researchers at all or only made available under onerous conditions. On the other hand, agencies which release public databases face new challenges in protecting the privacy of the subjects in those databases, which leads them to consider releasing fewer data or masking the data in ways that will reduce their accuracy. In this essay, we argue that the discussion has not given proper consideration to the reduced social benefits of data availability and their usability relative to the value of increased levels of privacy protection. A more balanced benefit-cost framework should be used to assess these trade-offs. We express concerns both with synthetic data methods for disclosure limitation, which will reduce the types of research that can be reliably conducted in unknown ways, and with differential privacy criteria that use what we argue is an inappropriate measure of disclosure risk. We recommend that the measure of disclosure risk used to assess all disclosure protection methods focus on what we believe is the risk that individuals should care about, that more study of the impact of differential privacy criteria and synthetic data methods on data usability for research be conducted before either is put into widespread use, and that more research be conducted on alternative methods of disclosure risk reduction that better balance benefits and costs.

Felon history and change in U.S. employment rates.

In recent decades, the share of U.S. adults with felony-level criminal records has risen and the growth in the employment rate has slowed. Sociological theories of labeling and stigmatization, as well as economic theories of statistical discrimination, suggest a possible causal connection between the two phenomena. Surveys of employers have shown increasing reliance on criminal background checks, for example, and audit studies reveal explicit discrimination against people with felony-level criminal records. This paper draws on novel, state-level annual measures of individuals with felony-level records to estimate pooled cross-sectional, panel models predicting changes in aggregate employment rates. Estimates from these models indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the share of a state's adult population with a felony history is associated with 0.3 percentage point increase in non-employment (being unemployed or not in the labor force) among those aged 18 to 54. Subgroup analysis shows that effects are stronger for women and whites. These results suggest that the stigma of a felony record may play an important part in aggregate employment rates as well as in individual hiring practices.

Inequality in Early Care Experienced by US Children.

Using every major nationally representative dataset on parental and non-parental care provided to children up to age 6, we quantify differences in American children's care experiences by socioeconomic status (SES), proxied primarily with maternal education. Increasingly, higher-SES children spend less total time with their parents and more time in the care of others. Non-parental care for high-SES children is more likely to be in childcare centers, where average quality is higher, and less likely to be provided by relatives where average quality is lower. Even within types of childcare, higher-SES children tend to receive care of higher measured quality and higher cost. Inequality is evident at home as well: measures of parental enrichment at home, from both self-reports and outside observers, are on average higher for higher-SES children. We also find that parental and non-parental quality is reinforcing: children who receive higher quality non-parental care also tend to receive higher quality parental care.

WHO'S IN AND WHO'S OUT UNDER WORKPLACE COVID SYMPTOM SCREENING?

COVID symptom screening, a new workplace practice, is already affecting many millions of American workers. As of this writing, 34 states already require, and federal guidance recommends, frequent screening of at least some employees for fever or other symptoms. This paper provides the first empirical work identifying major features of symptom screening in a broad population and exploring the trade-offs employers face in using daily symptom screening. First, we find that common symptom checkers could screen out up to 7 percent of workers each day, depending on the measure used. Second, we find that the measures used will matter for three reasons: Many respondents report any given symptom, survey design affects responses, and demographic groups report symptoms at different rates, even absent fluctuations in likely COVID exposure. This last pattern can potentially lead to disparate impacts and is important from an equity standpoint.

Physician-patient racial concordance and disparities in birthing mortality for newborns.

Recent work has emphasized the benefits of patient-physician concordance on clinical care outcomes for underrepresented minorities, arguing it can ameliorate outgroup biases, boost communication, and increase trust. We explore concordance in a setting where racial disparities are particularly severe: childbirth. In the United States, Black newborns die at three times the rate of White newborns. Results examining 1.8 million hospital births in the state of Florida between 1992 and 2015 suggest that newborn-physician racial concordance is associated with a significant improvement in mortality for Black infants. Results further suggest that these benefits manifest during more challenging births and in hospitals that deliver more Black babies. We find no significant improvement in maternal mortality when birthing mothers share race with their physician.

Using machine learning to translate applicant work history into predictors of performance and turnover.

Work history information reflected in resumes and job application forms is commonly used to screen job applicants; however, there is little consensus as to how to systematically translate information about one's work-related past into predictors of future work outcomes. In this article, we apply machine learning techniques to job application form data (including previous job descriptions and stated reasons for changing jobs) to develop interpretable measures of work experience relevance, tenure history, and history of involuntary turnover, history of avoiding bad jobs, and history of approaching better jobs. We empirically examine our model on a longitudinal sample of 16,071 applicants for public school teaching positions, and predict subsequent work outcomes including student evaluations, expert observations of performance, value-added to student test scores, voluntary turnover, and involuntary turnover. We found that work experience relevance and a history of approaching better jobs were linked to positive work outcomes, whereas a history of avoiding bad jobs was associated with negative outcomes. We also quantify the extent to which our model can improve the quality of selection process above the conventional methods of assessing work history, while lowering the risk of adverse impact. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Can Intensive Early Childhood Intervention Programs Eliminate Income-Based Cognitive and Achievement Gaps?

How much of the income-based gaps in cognitive ability and academic achievement could be closed by a two-year, center-based early childhood education intervention? Data from the Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP), which randomly assigned treatment to low-birth-weight children from both higher- and low-income families between ages one and three, shows much larger impacts among low-than higher-income children. Projecting IHDP impacts to the U.S. population's IQ and achievement trajectories suggests that such a program offered to low-income children would essentially eliminate the income-based gap at age three and between a third and three-quarters of the age five and age eight gaps.

Trends in unionization of nursing homes.

Unionization may have important implications for the delivery of nursing home care, but little is known about this phenomenon. Since 1985, the proportion of nursing home workers covered by union contracts declined from 14.6% to 9.9%. The first national-scale data on facility-level unionization reveals that unions are more common in nursing homes with more residents, in hospital-based or chain-affiliated facilities, and in facilities serving a higher proportion of Medicaid patients. With new federal policy proposals aimed at substantially lowering the cost of organizing workers, policymakers will want to consider the potential impact of nursing home unionization on worker, patient, and market outcomes.