Combining ranger records and biogeographical models to identify the current and potential distribution of an expanding mesocarnivore in southern Europe.

Human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) are increasing and are potentially harmful to both people and wildlife. Understanding the current and potential distribution of wildlife species involved in HWC, such as carnivores, is essential for implementing management and conservation measures for such species. In this study, we assessed both the current distribution and potential distribution (forecast) of the Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) in the central part of the Iberian Peninsula. We acquired data concerning mongoose occurrences through an online questionnaire sent to environmental rangers. We used the municipality level as the sampling unit because all municipalities within the study area were covered at least by one ranger. Using the information provided by rangers (i.e. occurrences in their municipalities), we constructed environmental favourability distribution models to assess current and potential mongoose distribution through current distribution models (CDM) and ecological models (EM), respectively. >300 rangers participated in the survey and mongooses were reported in a total of 181 of 921 municipalities studied. The CDM model showed a current distribution mainly concentrated on the western part of the study area, where intermediate-high favourability values predominated. The EM model revealed a wider potential distribution, including the south-east part of the study area, which was also characterised by intermediate-high favourability values. Our predictions were verified using independent data, including confirmation of mongoose reproduction by rangers, reports by other experts, and field sampling in some areas. Our innovative approach based on an online survey to rangers coupled with environmental favourability models is shown to be a useful methodology for assessing the current distribution of cryptic but expanding wildlife species, while also enabling estimations of future steps in their expansion. The approach proposed may help policy decision-makers seeking to ensure the conservation of expanding wildlife species, for example, by designing awareness campaigns in areas where the target species is expected to arrive.

Socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions in Mexico.

Air pollution is one of the most severe environmental problems that Mexico is currently facing. The objective of this paper is to quantify the most relevant socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions and, more specifically, 7 local pollutants in Mexico. We do so in a multilevel version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model that accounts for the spatial heterogeneity at the municipal level across the country. The results show that the most relevant variables to determine the emissions of atmospheric pollutants are the population, the harvested area and the number of cars, while technological development helps to mitigate such emissions. The ecological elasticities are, in all cases, smaller than one. Our purpose is to provide quantitative information about these socioeconomic driving forces of air deterioration as a basis to establish some recommendations for environmental policy decision-making.

Low Level of Concern Among European Society About Zoonotic Diseases.

Zoonotic emerging diseases (ZEDs) are increasing and may deeply impact human wellbeing, but our recent survey of public opinion in six European countries (n = 2415 participants) suggests a low concern among Europeans about the risk associated with ZEDs. This contrasts with Europeans' high awareness of climate change risks, which was confirmed by our survey. Given the increasing risk of ZEDs, it is therefore essential to increase Europeans' awareness of their impacts. In addition, our study suggests that Europeans may be more likely to support sustainable environmental policies that would reduce the risk associated with ZEDs, consequently improving the human wellbeing.

Beyond rural vs urban differences: A close match in european preferences in some basic wildlife management and conservation principles.

The EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 sets out a framework of commitments and actions to tackle the main drivers of biodiversity loss. Such framework needs to be built on a whole-of-society approach to biodiversity protection, mobilizing private and public funding. In this context, our goal was estimating societal support and preferences about some basic wildlife management principles, which may be useful to inform EU decision-makers about societal priorities and other additional funding sources for wildlife conservation. A discrete choice experiment was conducted by 2415 inhabitants in six European countries (Spain, France, Italy, UK, Germany, Sweden), including residents in both rural (47% of respondents) and urban areas. Our findings reveal a clear pattern across western Europe with similar trends along the studied countries, and even between rural and urban citizens, on some basic wildlife management principles. According to our survey, payments for environmental services contribute to achieving a higher well-being from European citizens in any of the prospective wildlife programs considered, which suggests it is an acceptable tool to share out funds for biodiversity conservation. In addition, managing scarce species is preferred over managing too abundant species; management in forest, agricultural and aquatic habitats is prioritized over that in urban landscapes; and management in protected areas is preferred over management in non-protected ones. These findings suggest that there is a common culture in Europe related to the management of wildlife even when considering citizens with contrasted ways of life: rural vs urban citizens from northern to southwestern Europe. Overall, this study may help in the design of wildlife management policies that maximize societal acceptability and gather higher support.

Let Us Give Voice to Local Farmers: Preferences for Farm-Based Strategies to Enhance Human-Elephant Coexistence in Africa.

Local communities surrounding wildlife corridors and natural reserves often face challenges related to human-wildlife coexistence. To mitigate the challenges and ensure the long-term conservation of wildlife, it is important to engage local communities in the design of conservation strategies. By conducting 480 face-to-face interviews in 30 villages along and adjacent to the Selous-Niassa Wildlife Corridor (Tanzania), we quantified farmers' preferences for farm-based measures to mitigate African elephant damage using choice experiments. Results show that farmers considered no action the least preferred option, revealing that they are open to trying different measures. The most preferred management strategy matched with the preferences of wildlife rangers in the area, suggesting low concern about the potential conflicts between stakeholders. However, a latent class model suggests that there are significant differences among responses triggered by farmers' previous experience with elephants, the intensity of the elephant damage, and the socioeconomic situation of the farmer. Results show a marked spatial distribution among respondents, highlighting the benefits of zone management as conflicts were found to be highly context dependent. Understanding the human dimension of conservation is essential for the successful planification and implementation of conservation strategies. Therefore, the development and broad utilization of methodologies to gather specific context information should be encouraged.

People's attitudes towards the agrifood system influence the value of ecosystem services of mountain agroecosystems.

Studies covering the social valuation of ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly incorporating people's attitudes, which allows social heterogeneity to be identified. This is especially relevant in mountain areas, where diverse complex interactions occur among the environment, the socioeconomic system, and a wide variety of farming practices. In this context, we aimed to: (i) identify the attitudinal dimensions that build people views about the agrifood system; and (ii) analyse how these attitudinal dimensions influence the value given to ES delivered by mountain agroecosystems of two European countries. We conducted a survey with a sample of 1008 individuals evenly distributed in the Italian Alps and Spanish Mediterranean mountain areas to collect information on people's attitudes toward: (i) the economy and the environment; (ii) rural development and agricultural intensification; (iii) food quality, production, and consumption; and (iv) agricultural and environmental policies. The survey included a choice experiment to assess the value that individuals attach to the most relevant ES provided by mountain agroecosystems in these areas (i.e., landscape, biodiversity, quality local products, wildfires prevention and water quality). The results showed four common attitudinal dimensions, namely Economy over environment, Mass-Market distribution reliability, Agricultural productivism, and Environmentalism and rural lifestyle. These attitudinal dimensions resulted in six groups of respondents. Most groups positively valued an increase in the delivery of all the analysed ES, which suggests that agricultural policies which aim to promote ES are likely to receive social support in the study areas. However, the differing attitudinal dimensions underlying people's preferences may result in disagreements about the steps to be taken to achieve the desired increase in ES delivery.

Addressing social attitudes toward lethal control of wildlife in national parks.

The extraordinary population growth of certain ungulate species is increasingly a concern in agroforestry areas because overabundance may negatively affect natural environments and human livelihoods. However, society may have negative perceptions of killing wildlife to reduce their numbers and mitigate damage. We used an online survey that included a choice experiment to determine Spanish citizens' (n = 190) preferences toward wildlife population control measures related to negative effects of ungulate overabundance (negative impacts on vegetation and other wildlife species and disease transmission to livestock) in 2 agroforestry national parks in Spain. We used latent-class and willingness-to-pay in space models to analyze survey results. Two percent of respondents thought a national park should have no human intervention even if lack of management may cause environmental degradation, whereas 95% of respondents favored efforts to reduce damage caused by overabundant ungulate species. We estimated human well-being losses of survey respondents when sustainable effects of deer overabundance on the environment became unsustainable effects and well-being gains when sustainable effects transitioned to no visible effects. We found that the type of wildlife-control program was a very relevant issue for the respondents; indirect control in which killing was avoided was the preferred action. Sixty-six percent of respondents agreed with the option of hunters paying for culling animals to reduce ungulate impacts rather than management cost coming out of taxes, whereas 19% of respondents were against this option and willing to pay for other solutions in national parks. Our results suggest that killing wildlife in national parks could be a socially acceptable tool to manage overabundance problems in certain contexts, but it could also generate social conflicts.

Soluciones para las Actitudes Sociales hacia el Control Letal de la Fauna en Parques Nacionales Resumen El extraordinario crecimiento de ciertas poblaciones de ungulados es cada vez más preocupante en las áreas agroforestales ya que la sobreabundancia puede afectar negativamente al ambiente natural y el sustento humano. Sin embargo, la sociedad puede percibir negativamente el exterminio de fauna para reducir sus números y mitigar el daño. Usamos una encuesta en línea que incluía un experimento de elección para determinar las preferencias de los ciudadanos españoles (n = 190) por las medidas de control poblacional relacionadas con los efectos negativos de la sobreabundancia de ungulados (impactos negativos sobre la vegetación y otras especies silvestres y el contagio de enfermedades al ganado) en dos parques nacionales agroforestales de España. Usamos la clase latente y la disposición para pagar dentro modelos espaciales para analizar los resultados de la encuesta. El 2% de los respondientes creyó que un parque nacional no debería tener intervención humana, incluso si la falta de manejo pudiera causar una degradación ambiental. Mientras tanto, el 95% de los respondientes estuvieron a favor de los esfuerzos para reducir el daño causado por la sobreabundancia de ungulados. Cuando los efectos sustentables sobre el ambiente de la sobreabundancia de venados se convertían en efectos insostenibles, los estimamos como pérdidas de bienestar humano para los respondientes de la encuesta; cuando los efectos sustentables transitaron hacia la nula visibilidad de efectos, los estimamos como ganancias de bienestar. Descubrimos que el tipo de programa de control de fauna era un tema muy relevante para los respondientes; el control indirecto, en el que se evita el exterminio, fue la acción preferida por los respondientes. El 66% de los respondientes estuvo de acuerdo con la opción de que los cazadores paguen por sacrificar animales para reducir el impacto de los ungulados en lugar de que el costo del manejo provenga de los impuestos, mientras que el 19% de los respondientes estuvo en contra de esta opción y dispuesto a pagar por otras soluciones en los parques nacionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el exterminio de vida silvestre en los parques nacionales podría ser una herramienta socialmente aceptable para manejar problemas de sobreabundancia en ciertos contextos, pero también podría generar algunos conflictos sociales.

Mitigation strategies for conserving bird diversity under climate change scenarios in Europe: The role of forest naturalization.

There are many possible strategies to promote naturalization in anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate global change effects. We combined large-scale databases available for continental Spain on: (1) distribution of breeding birds, (2) forest inventory stands, (3) land-use cover, (4) 18 global climate models recently developed at local scales, and (5) historical and genetically-based information on the distribution of natural versus planted pine forests, to analyze whether back to nature strategies may help to mitigate biodiversity loss due to climate change. We performed the analysis along environmental and ecological gradients of pine forests in Southern Europe. Models suggested that, naturalization strategies, in this case defined by the replacement of planted pine forests and eucalyptus forests by natural pine forests, could help to mitigate the expected loss of bird diversity due to climate change, but that mitigation efficiency will vary along environmental and ecological gradients. Maximum levels of diversity mitigation were predicted at intermediate levels of naturalization, with lower bird richness in areas where all pine forests were either planted or naturalized. Efficiency also varied spatially, given that both cold- and hot-spots of climate-driven bird diversity loss were identified. Transforming planted forest into natural forest is not a mitigation panacea, and additional regionally-adapted strategies may be identified to mitigate the expected biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems.

Promoting biodiversity values of small forest patches in agricultural landscapes: Ecological drivers and social demand.

Small forest patches embedded in agricultural (and peri-urban) landscapes in Western Europe play a key role for biodiversity conservation with a recognized capacity of delivering a wide suite of ecosystem services. Measures aimed to preserve these patches should be both socially desirable and ecologically effective. This study presents a joint ecologic and economic assessment conducted on small forest patches in Flanders (Belgium) and Picardie (N France). In each study region, two contrasted types of agricultural landscapes were selected. Open field (OF) and Bocage (B) landscapes are distinguished by the intensity of their usage and higher connectivity in the B landscapes. The social demand for enhancing biodiversity and forest structure diversity as well as for increasing the forest area at the expenses of agricultural land is estimated through an economic valuation survey. These results are compared with the outcomes of an ecological survey where the influence of structural features of the forest patches on the associated herbaceous diversity is assessed. The ecological and economic surveys show contrasting results; increasing tree species richness is ecologically more important for herbaceous diversity in the patch, but both tree species richness and herbaceous diversity obtain insignificant willingness to pay estimates. Furthermore, although respondents prefer the proposed changes to take place in the region where they live, we find out that social preferences and ecological effectiveness do differ between landscapes that represent different intensities of land use. Dwellers where the landscape is perceived as more "degraded" attach more value to diversity enhancement, suggesting a prioritization of initiatives in these area. In contrast, the ecological analyses show that prioritizing the protection and enhancement of the relatively better-off areas is more ecologically effective. Our study calls for a balance between ecological effectiveness and welfare benefits, suggesting that cost effectiveness studies should consider these approaches jointly.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change.

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen's (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host's risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Personality traits and environmental choices: On the search for understanding.

In this paper we hypothesize that individuals will choose among alternative courses of action for power generation from wind farms according to their personality profiles. Through a factor analysis we found that certain characteristics of personality do indeed have an effect on environmental choice. The study involves an extensive survey based on the Big Five Traits model to find a pattern of choice that will help to better understand environmental decisions and be useful for policy makers to identify target groups and preview reactions to different courses of action. The research is potentially useful for the better preparation and design of publicity material, awareness raising campaigns and information provision for complex or unpopular policies affecting the environment or in environmental education in general. This research is especially interested in shedding some light on how personality is involved in the processes of environmental decision making, despite the limitations of the present study.

Personal traits underlying environmental preferences: a discrete choice experiment.

Personality plays a role in human behavior, and thus can influence consumer decisions on environmental goods and services. This paper analyses the influence of the big five personality dimensions (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness) in a discrete choice experiment dealing with preferences for the development of an environmental program for forest management in Spain. For this purpose, a reduced version of the Big Five Inventory survey (the BFI-10) is implemented. Results show a positive effect of openness and extraversion and a negative effect of agreeableness and neuroticism in consumers' preferences for this environmental program. Moreover, results from a latent class model show that personal traits help to explain preference heterogeneity.

External benefits of biomass-e in Spain: an economic valuation.

This article analyses the willingness to pay for a program that promotes the production of electricity from forest biomass, instead of that based on fossil fuels. The program decreases greenhouse gas emissions, reduces the pressure on non-renewable resources, lowers the risk of summer forest fires, creates employment in rural areas. Results from a choice experiment show that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to obtain the external benefits of the substitution. Respondents attach a higher value to programs that decrease the pressure of non-renewable resources and the risk of forest fires.