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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(12): e2318716121, 2024 Mar 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483991

ABSTRACT

Deep convection in the Asian summer monsoon is a significant transport process for lifting pollutants from the planetary boundary layer to the tropopause level. This process enables efficient injection into the stratosphere of reactive species such as chlorinated very-short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) that deplete ozone. Past studies of convective transport associated with the Asian summer monsoon have focused mostly on the south Asian summer monsoon. Airborne observations reported in this work identify the East Asian summer monsoon convection as an effective transport pathway that carried record-breaking levels of ozone-depleting Cl-VSLSs (mean organic chlorine from these VSLSs ~500 ppt) to the base of the stratosphere. These unique observations show total organic chlorine from VSLSs in the lower stratosphere over the Asian monsoon tropopause to be more than twice that previously reported over the tropical tropopause. Considering the recently observed increase in Cl-VSLS emissions and the ongoing strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon under global warming, our results highlight that a reevaluation of the contribution of Cl-VSLS injection via the Asian monsoon to the total stratospheric chlorine budget is warranted.

2.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 1830, 2023 09 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37730605

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation declared the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) a global pandemic on 11th March 2020. Since then, the world has been firmly in its grip. At the time of writing, there were more than 767,972,961 million confirmed cases and over 6,950,655 million deaths. While the main policy focus has been on controlling the virus and ensuring vaccine roll-out and uptake, the population mental health impacts of the pandemic are expected to be long-term, with certain population groups affected more than others. METHODS: The overall objectives of our 'Coronavirus: Mental Health and the Pandemic' study were to explore UK adults' experiences of the Coronavirus pandemic and to gain insights into the mental health impacts, population-level changes over time, current and future mental health needs, and how these can best be addressed. The wider mixed-methods study consisted of repeated cross-sectional surveys and embedded qualitative sub-studies including in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with the wider UK adult population. For this particular inequalities and mental health sub-study, we used mixed methods data from our cross-sectional surveys and we carried out three Focus Group Discussions with a maximum variation sample from across the UK adult population. The discussions covered the broader topic of 'Inequalities and mental health during the Coronavirus pandemic in the UK' and took place online between April and August 2020. Focus Groups transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis in NVIVO. Cross-sectional survey data were analysed using STATA for descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Three broad main themes emerged, each supporting a number of sub-themes: (1) Impacts of the pandemic; (2) Moving forward: needs and recommendations; (3) Coping mechanisms and resilience. Findings showed that participants described their experiences of the pandemic in relation to its impact on themselves and on different groups of people. Their experiences illustrated how the pandemic and subsequent measures had exacerbated existing inequalities and created new ones, and triggered various emotional responses. Participants also described their coping strategies and what worked and did not work for them, as well as support needs and recommendations for moving forward through, and out of, the pandemic; all of which are valuable learnings to be considered in policy making for improving mental health and for ensuring future preparedness. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic is taking a long-term toll on the nations' mental health which will continue to have impacts for years to come. It is therefore crucial to learn the vital lessons learned from this pandemic. Specific as well as whole-government policies need to respond to this, address inequalities and the different needs across the life-course and across society, and take a holistic approach to mental health improvement across the UK.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Mental Health , Adult , Humans , Cross-Sectional Studies , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , United Kingdom/epidemiology
3.
Indian J Psychiatry ; 65(5): 506-525, 2023 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37397842

ABSTRACT

Medication nonadherence (MNA) poses a significant challenge in the management of major psychiatric disorders. The present study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of MNA among patients with psychiatric disorders in India and to identify the factors associated with MNA. The following databases were searched systematically: PubMed, Directory of Open Access Journals, and Google scholar. Articles originating from India published in peer reviewed English language journals before May 15, 2021 reporting the prevalence of MNA and associated factors among patients with psychiatric disorders were retrieved and the relevant data were abstracted. The pooled prevalence of MNA was calculated using the inverse variance method. Factors associated with MNA were synthesized and described. A total of 42 studies (pooled N = 6,268) were included in the systematic review. Among these, 32 studies (pooled N = 4,964) reported the prevalence of MNA and hence were eligible for meta analysis. The pooled prevalence of MNA was 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-0.52). The pooled prevalence of MNA for psychotic disorders, bipolar disorders, and depressive disorders were 0.37 (95% CI, 0.28-0.46), 0.47 (95% CI, 0.23-0.72), and 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-0.78), respectively. Negative attitude toward medications, polypharmacy, greater severity of illness, lack of insight, and cost of medications were associated with MNA. Quality appraisal of the included studies revealed that most studies did not categorize and address nonresponders and did not provide any information on nonresponders. To conclude, about half of the patients with psychiatric disorders in India are nonadherent to their psychotropic medications. Evidence based interventions to improve medication adherence in these patients need to be developed and implemented proactively keeping in mind the factors associated with MNA.

4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(20): e2300758120, 2023 May 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37155871

ABSTRACT

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO2 should warm Earth's troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50 km above the Earth's surface (S25 - 50). To date, however, S25 - 50 temperatures have not been used in pattern-based attribution studies of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we perform such a "fingerprint" study with satellite-derived patterns of temperature change that extend from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. Including S25 - 50 information increases signal-to-noise ratios by a factor of five, markedly enhancing fingerprint detectability. Key features of this global-scale human fingerprint include stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming at all latitudes, with stratospheric cooling amplifying with height. In contrast, the dominant modes of internal variability in S25 - 50 have smaller-scale temperature changes and lack uniform sign. These pronounced spatial differences between S25 - 50 signal and noise patterns are accompanied by large cooling of S25 - 50 (1 to 2[Formula: see text]C over 1986 to 2022) and low S25 - 50 noise levels. Our results explain why extending "vertical fingerprinting" to the mid to upper stratosphere yields incontrovertible evidence of human effects on the thermal structure of Earth's atmosphere.

5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(11): e2213910120, 2023 Mar 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36877843

ABSTRACT

The 2019 to 2020 Australian summer wildfires injected an amount of organic gases and particles into the stratosphere unprecedented in the satellite record since 2002, causing large unexpected changes in HCl and ClONO2. These fires provided a novel opportunity to evaluate heterogeneous reactions on organic aerosols in the context of stratospheric chlorine and ozone depletion chemistry. It has long been known that heterogeneous chlorine (Cl) activation occurs on the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs; liquid and solid particles containing water, sulfuric acid, and in some cases nitric acid) that are found in the stratosphere, but these are only effective for ozone depletion chemistry at temperatures below about 195 K (i.e., largely in the polar regions during winter). Here, we develop an approach to quantitatively assess atmospheric evidence for these reactions using satellite data for both the polar (65 to 90°S) and the midlatitude (40 to 55°S) regions. We show that heterogeneous reactions apparently even happened at temperatures at 220 K during austral autumn on the organic aerosols present in 2020 in both regions, in contrast to earlier years. Further, increased variability in HCl was also found after the wildfires, suggesting diverse chemical properties among the 2020 aerosols. We also confirm the expectation based upon laboratory studies that heterogeneous Cl activation has a strong dependence upon water vapor partial pressure and hence atmospheric altitude, becoming much faster close to the tropopause. Our analysis improves the understanding of heterogeneous reactions that are important for stratospheric ozone chemistry under both background and wildfire conditions.

6.
Nature ; 615(7951): 259-264, 2023 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36890371

ABSTRACT

Remarkable perturbations in the stratospheric abundances of chlorine species and ozone were observed over Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes following the 2020 Australian wildfires1,2. These changes in atmospheric chemical composition suggest that wildfire aerosols affect stratospheric chlorine and ozone depletion chemistry. Here we propose that wildfire aerosol containing a mixture of oxidized organics and sulfate3-7 increases hydrochloric acid solubility8-11 and associated heterogeneous reaction rates, activating reactive chlorine species and enhancing ozone loss rates at relatively warm stratospheric temperatures. We test our hypothesis by comparing atmospheric observations to model simulations that include the proposed mechanism. Modelled changes in 2020 hydrochloric acid, chlorine nitrate and hypochlorous acid abundances are in good agreement with observations1,2. Our results indicate that wildfire aerosol chemistry, although not accounting for the record duration of the 2020 Antarctic ozone hole, does yield an increase in its area and a 3-5% depletion of southern mid-latitude total column ozone. These findings increase concern2,12,13 that more frequent and intense wildfires could delay ozone recovery in a warming world.


Subject(s)
Aerosols , Chlorine , Ozone Depletion , Ozone , Wildfires , Aerosols/adverse effects , Aerosols/analysis , Aerosols/chemistry , Australia , Chlorine/analysis , Chlorine/chemistry , Hydrochloric Acid/chemistry , Ozone/analysis , Ozone/chemistry , Global Warming
8.
Stem Cell Reports ; 18(2): 420-426, 2023 02 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36736324

ABSTRACT

Public engagement is increasingly recognized as being integral to basic and translational research. Public engagement involves effective communication about research along with the mutual exchange of views and opinions among a wide variety of members in society. As such, public engagement can help to identify issues that must be addressed in order for research to be ethically sound and trustworthy. It is especially critical in research that potentially raises ethical concerns, for example research involving embryos, germline genome editing, stigmatized conditions, and marginalized communities. Therefore, it is not surprising that there have been prominent recent calls for public engagement in the emerging sciences. However, given that there is arguably little agreement about how this should be done and the best ways of doing so, those involved with planning and implementing public engagement can benefit from understanding a broad range of prior experiences on related issues.


Subject(s)
Stem Cell Research , Translational Research, Biomedical
9.
Indian J Psychiatry ; 65(11): 1184-1189, 2023 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38249137

ABSTRACT

Background: Despite the availability of several pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments, a significant proportion of patients with alcohol dependence relapse to alcohol use after treatment. The objectives of this study were to determine the 6-month course and outcome in treatment-seeking individuals with alcohol dependence syndrome and to determine the sociodemographic and clinical correlates of the outcome in these patients. Materials and Methods: A longitudinal observational study was conducted in treatment-seeking male patients with alcohol dependence syndrome. Baseline sociodemographic and clinical details were gathered using a structured pro forma. The patients were followed up at 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months. During the follow-up evaluation, abstinence status, number of abstinent days, and number of heavy drinking days were noted. Logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the factors associated with abstinence at 6 months. Results: Ninety-four patients were recruited for the study. The mean age of the participants was 43.98 years (standard deviation (SD) 10.68). Two patients were lost to follow-up. At the end of 2 weeks, 74 (80.43%) out of 92 participants remained abstinent. At the end of 1 month and 3 months, 59 (64.13%) and 38 (41.3%) participants of 92 were abstinent, respectively. At the end of 6 months, 26 (30.23%) of 86 patients were abstinent. Among those who were not abstinent at 6 months, the mean number of abstinent days was 113 (SD 51.62) days and the mean number of heavy drinking days was 56 (SD 51.62) days. Outpatients were found to have 2.91 times higher odds of remaining abstinent at 6 months when compared to inpatients. Conclusion: Nearly one-third of treatment-seeking patients with alcohol dependence syndrome remained abstinent at the end of 6 months. The locus of treatment was associated with abstinence at 6 months.

10.
Front Public Health ; 10: 875198, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36276403

ABSTRACT

Background: Worldwide, the Coronavirus pandemic has had a major impact on people's health, lives, and livelihoods. However, this impact has not been felt equally across various population groups. People from ethnic minority backgrounds in the UK have been more adversely affected by the pandemic, especially in terms of their physical health. Their mental health, on the other hand, has received less attention. This study aimed to explore the mental health experiences of UK adults from ethnic minorities during the Coronavirus pandemic. This work forms part of our wider long-term UK population study "Mental Health in the Pandemic." Methods: We conducted an exploratory qualitative study with people from ethnic minority communities across the UK. A series of in-depth interviews were conducted with 15 women, 14 men and 1 non-binary person from ethnic minority backgrounds, aged between 18 and 65 years old (mean age = 40). We utilized purposefully selected maximum variation sampling in order to capture as wide a variety of views, perceptions and experiences as possible. Inclusion criteria: adults (18+) from ethnic minorities across the UK; able to provide full consent to participate; able to participate in a video- or phone-call interview. All interviews took place via MS Teams or Zoom. The gathered data were transcribed verbatim and underwent thematic analysis following Braun and Clarke carried out using NVivo 12 software. Results: The qualitative data analysis yielded seven overarching themes: (1) pandemic-specific mental health and wellbeing experiences; (2) issues relating to the media; (3) coping mechanisms; (4) worries around and attitudes toward vaccination; (5) suggestions for support in moving forward; (6) best and worst experiences during pandemic and lockdowns; (7) biggest areas of change in personal life. Generally, participants' mental health experiences varied with some not being affected by the pandemic in a way related to their ethnicity, some sharing positive experiences and coping strategies (exercising more, spending more time with family, community cohesion), and some expressing negative experiences (eating or drinking more, feeling more isolated, or even racism and abuse, especially toward Asian communities). Concerns were raised around trust issues in relation to the media, the inadequate representation of ethnic minorities, and the spread of fake news especially on social media. Attitudes toward vaccinations varied too, with some people more willing to have the vaccine than others. Conclusion: This study's findings highlight the diversity in the pandemic mental health experiences of ethnic minorities in the UK and has implications for policy, practice and further research. To enable moving forward beyond the pandemic, our study surfaced the need for culturally appropriate mental health support, financial support (as a key mental health determinant), accurate media representation, and clear communication messaging from the Governments of the UK.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Coronavirus , Adult , Male , Female , Humans , Adolescent , Young Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Pandemics , Mental Health , Ethnicity , Minority Groups , Ethnic and Racial Minorities , United Kingdom/epidemiology
12.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 1590, 2022 03 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35338121

ABSTRACT

Drug discovery for diseases such as Parkinson's disease are impeded by the lack of screenable cellular phenotypes. We present an unbiased phenotypic profiling platform that combines automated cell culture, high-content imaging, Cell Painting, and deep learning. We applied this platform to primary fibroblasts from 91 Parkinson's disease patients and matched healthy controls, creating the largest publicly available Cell Painting image dataset to date at 48 terabytes. We use fixed weights from a convolutional deep neural network trained on ImageNet to generate deep embeddings from each image and train machine learning models to detect morphological disease phenotypes. Our platform's robustness and sensitivity allow the detection of individual-specific variation with high fidelity across batches and plate layouts. Lastly, our models confidently separate LRRK2 and sporadic Parkinson's disease lines from healthy controls (receiver operating characteristic area under curve 0.79 (0.08 standard deviation)), supporting the capacity of this platform for complex disease modeling and drug screening applications.


Subject(s)
Deep Learning , Parkinson Disease , Fibroblasts , Humans , Machine Learning , Neural Networks, Computer
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(10): e2117325119, 2022 03 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35238658

ABSTRACT

SignificanceLarge wildfires have been observed to inject smoke into the stratosphere, raising questions about their potential to affect the stratospheric ozone layer that protects life on Earth from biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation. Multiple observations of aerosol and NO2 concentrations from three independent satellite instruments are used here together with model calculations to identify decreases in stratospheric NO2 concentrations following major Australian 2019 through 2020 wildfires. The data confirm that important chemistry did occur on the smoke particle surfaces. The observed behavior in NO2 with increasing particle concentrations is a marker for surface chemistry that contributes to midlatitude ozone depletion. The results indicate that increasing wildfire activity in a warming world may slow the recovery of the ozone layer.


Subject(s)
Altitude , Particulate Matter/chemistry , Smoke/analysis , Stratospheric Ozone/chemistry , Wildfires , Australia
14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(7)2022 02 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35131938

ABSTRACT

The catalytic depletion of Antarctic stratospheric ozone is linked to anthropogenic emissions of chlorine and bromine. Despite its larger ozone-depleting efficiency, the contribution of ocean-emitted iodine to ozone hole chemistry has not been evaluated, due to the negligible iodine levels previously reported to reach the stratosphere. Based on the recently observed range (0.77 ± 0.1 parts per trillion by volume [pptv]) of stratospheric iodine injection, we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to assess the role of iodine in the formation and recent past evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole. Our 1980-2015 simulations indicate that iodine can significantly impact the lower part of the Antarctic ozone hole, contributing, on average, 10% of the lower stratospheric ozone loss during spring (up to 4.2% of the total stratospheric column). We find that the inclusion of iodine advances the beginning and delays the closure stages of the ozone hole by 3 d to 5 d, increasing its area and mass deficit by 11% and 20%, respectively. Despite being present in much smaller amounts, and due to faster gas-phase photochemical reactivation, iodine can dominate (∼73%) the halogen-mediated lower stratospheric ozone loss during summer and early fall, when the heterogeneous reactivation of inorganic chlorine and bromine reservoirs is reduced. The stratospheric ozone destruction caused by 0.77 pptv of iodine over Antarctica is equivalent to that of 3.1 (4.6) pptv of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons during spring (rest of sunlit period). The relative contribution of iodine to future stratospheric ozone loss is likely to increase as anthropogenic chlorine and bromine emissions decline following the Montreal Protocol.


Subject(s)
Atmosphere/analysis , Iodine/chemistry , Ozone Depletion , Stratospheric Ozone/chemistry , Air Pollutants/chemistry , Antarctic Regions , Seasons
15.
J Geophys Res Atmos ; 127(21): e2021JD036142, 2022 Nov 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36590058

ABSTRACT

Open questions about the modulation of near-surface trace gas variability by stratosphere-troposphere tracer transport complicate efforts to identify anthropogenic sources of gases such as CFC-11 and N2O and disentangle them from dynamical influences. In this study, we explore one model's modulation of lower stratospheric tracer advection by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal winds at 50 hPa. We assess instances of coherent modulation versus disruption through phase unlocking with the seasonal cycle in the model and in observations. We quantify modeled advective contributions to the temporal rate of change of stratospheric CFC-11 and N2O at extratropical and high-latitudes by calculating a transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) budget across isentropic surfaces from a 10-member WACCM4 ensemble simulation. We find that positive interannual variability in seasonal tracer advection generally occurs in the easterly QBO phase, as in previous work, and briefly discuss physical mechanisms. Individual simulations of the 10-member ensemble display phase-unlocking disruptions from this general pattern due to seasonally varying synchronizations between the model's repeating 28-month QBO cycle and the 12-month seasonal cycle. We find that phase locking and unlocking patterns of tracer advection calculations inferred from observations fall within the envelope of the ensemble member results. Our study bolsters evidence for variability in the interannual stratospheric dynamical influence of CFC-11 near-surface concentrations by assessing the QBO modulation of lower stratospheric advection via synchronization with the annual cycle. It identifies a likely cause of variations in the QBO influence on tropospheric abundances.

16.
BMJ Open ; 11(8): e046422, 2021 08 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34452957

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The WHO declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. Since then, the world has been firmly in the grip of the COVID-19. To date, more than 211 730 035 million confirmed cases and more than 4 430 697 million people have died. While controlling the virus and implementing vaccines are the main priorities, the population mental health impacts of the pandemic are expected to be longer term and are less obvious than the physical health ones. Lockdown restrictions, physical distancing, social isolation, as well as the loss of a loved one, working in a frontline capacity and loss of economic security may have negative effects on and increase the mental health challenges in populations around the world. There is a major demand for long-term research examining the mental health experiences and needs of people in order to design adequate policies and interventions for sustained action to respond to individual and population mental health needs both during and after the pandemic. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This repeated cross-sectional mixed-method study conducts regular self-administered representative surveys, and targeted focus groups and semi-structured interviews with adults in the UK, as well as validation of gathered evidence through citizens' juries for contextualisation (for the UK as a whole and for its four devolved nations) to ensure that emerging mental health problems are identified early on and are properly understood, and that appropriate policies and interventions are developed and implemented across the UK and within devolved contexts. STATA and NVIVO will be used to carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis, respectively. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval for this study has been granted by the Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee of the University of Cambridge, UK (PRE 2020.050) and by the Health and Life Sciences Research Ethics Committee of De Montfort University, UK (REF 422991). While unlikely, participants completing the self-administered surveys or participating in the virtual focus groups, semi-structured interviews and citizens' juries might experience distress triggered by questions or conversations. However, appropriate mitigating measures have been adopted and signposting to services and helplines will be available at all times. Furthermore, a dedicated member of staff will also be at hand to debrief following participation in the research and personalised thank-you notes will be sent to everyone taking part in the qualitative research.Study findings will be disseminated in scientific journals, at research conferences, local research symposia and seminars. Evidence-based open access briefings, articles and reports will be available on our study website for everyone to access. Rapid policy briefings targeting issues emerging from the data will also be disseminated to inform policy and practice. These briefings will position the findings within UK public policy and devolved nations policy and socioeconomic contexts in order to develop specific, timely policy recommendations. Additional dissemination will be done through traditional and social media. Our data will be contextualised in view of existing policies, and changes over time as-and-when policies change.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Communicable Disease Control , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Mental Health , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
17.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2920, 2021 05 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34006851

ABSTRACT

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. 'banks'). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11.

18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(12)2021 03 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33723065

ABSTRACT

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg ⋅ yr-1 after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg ⋅ yr-1). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg ⋅ yr-1; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr.


Subject(s)
Atmosphere , Chlorofluorocarbons/adverse effects , Environmental Pollutants/adverse effects , Oceans and Seas , Ozone , Climate Change , Environmental Monitoring , Models, Theoretical
19.
Science ; 371(6532): 892, 2021 Feb 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33632836
20.
Ambio ; 50(1): 44-48, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33219941

ABSTRACT

Crutzen (1974) and Crutzen and Ehhalt (1977) presented two key papers in Ambio that in Ambioexemplify how science first revealed to humankind the potential for damage to our ozone shield in the Anthropocene. Crutzen's (1974) review is a sweeping summary of the risks to the ozone layer from supersonic aircraft, chlorofluorocarbons, as well as nuclear weapons testing and nuclear war. Crutzen and Ehhalt (1977) described how the nitrous oxide produced from fertilizers could pose another threat to the stability of the stratospheric ozone layer. The two papers are part of a body of influential scientific work that led to the pioneering Montreal Protocol to Protect the Earth's Ozone Layer to phase out production of chlorofluorocarbons (in 1987), as well as national decisions that slowed or stopped production of supersonic planes (in the 1970s). They remain guideposts today for ongoing international negotiations regarding reducing emissions from fertilizer and limiting nuclear testing.


Subject(s)
Ozone , Stratospheric Ozone , Anniversaries and Special Events , Chlorofluorocarbons , Nitrous Oxide
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