Genetic diversity and shallow genetic differentiation of the endangered scaly-sided merganser Mergus squamatus.

Examining patterns of genetic diversity are crucial for conservation planning on endangered species, while inferring the underlying process of recent anthropogenic habitat modifications in the context potential long-term demographic changes remains challenging. The globally endangered scaly-sided merganser (SSME), Mergus squamatus, is endemic to a narrow range in Northeast Asia, and its population has recently been contracted into two main breeding areas. Although low genetic diversity has been suggested in the Russian population, the genetic status and demographic history of these individuals have not been fully elucidated. We therefore examined the genetic diversity and structure of the breeding populations of the SSME and investigated the relative importance of historical and recent demographic changes to the present-day pattern of genetic diversity. Using 10 nuclear microsatellite (SSR) markers and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences, we found limited female-inherited genetic diversity and a high level of nuclear genetic diversity. In addition, analysis of both markers consistently revealed significant but weak divergence between the breeding populations. Inconsistent demographic history parameters calculated from mtDNA and bottleneck analysis results based on SSR suggested a stable historical effective population size. By applying approximate Bayesian computation, it was estimated that populations started to genetically diverge from each other due to recent fragmentation events caused by anthropogenic effects rather than isolation during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and post-LGM recolonization. These results suggest that limited historical population size and shallow evolutionary history may be potential factors contributing to the contemporary genetic diversity pattern of breeding SSME populations. Conservation efforts should focus on protecting the current breeding habitats from further destruction, with priority given to both the Russian and Chinese population, as well as restoring the connected suitable breeding grounds.

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Flyways and migratory behaviour of the Vega gull (Larus vegae), a little-known Arctic endemic.

Large gulls are generalist predators that play an important role in Arctic food webs. Describing the migratory patterns and phenology of these predators is essential to understanding how Arctic ecosystems function. However, from all six large Arctic gull taxa, including three long-distance migrants, to date seasonal movements have been studied only in three and with small sample sizes. To document the flyways and migratory behaviour of the Vega gull, a widespread but little-studied Siberian migrant, we monitored 28 individuals with GPS loggers over a mean period of 383 days. Birds used similar routes in spring and autumn, preferring coastal to inland or offshore routes, and travelled 4000-5500 km between their breeding (Siberia) and wintering grounds (mainly the Republic of Korea and Japan). Spring migration mainly occurred in May, and was twice as fast and more synchronized among individuals than autumn migration. Migration bouts mainly occurred during the day and twilight, but rates of travel were always higher during the few night flights. Flight altitudes were nearly always higher during migration bouts than during other bouts, and lower during twilight than during night or day. Altitudes above 2000m were recorded during migrations, when birds made non-stop inland flights over mountain ranges and vast stretches of the boreal forest. Individuals showed high inter-annual consistency in their movements in winter and summer, indicating strong site fidelity to their breeding and wintering sites. Within-individual variation was similar in spring and autumn, but between individual variation was higher in autumn than in spring. Compared to previous studies, our results suggest that the timing of spring migration in large Arctic gulls is likely constrained by snowmelt at breeding grounds, while the duration of migration windows could be related to the proportion of inland versus coastal habitats found along their flyways ('fly-and-forage' strategy). Ongoing environmental changes are hence likely in short term to alter the timing of their migration, and in long term possibly affect the duration if e.g. the resource availability along the route changes in the future.

Migratory network reveals unique spatial-temporal migration dynamics of Dunlin subspecies along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

Determining the dynamics of where and when individuals occur is necessary to understand population declines and identify critical areas for populations of conservation concern. However, there are few examples where a spatially and temporally explicit model has been used to evaluate the migratory dynamics of a bird population across its entire annual cycle. We used geolocator-derived migration tracks of 84 Dunlin (Calidris alpina) on the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) to construct a migratory network describing annual subspecies-specific migration patterns in space and time. We found that Dunlin subspecies exhibited unique patterns of spatial and temporal flyway use. Spatially, C. a. arcticola predominated in regions along the eastern edge of the flyway (e.g., western Alaska and central Japan), whereas C. a. sakhalina predominated in regions along the western edge of the flyway (e.g., N China and inland China). No individual Dunlin that wintered in Japan also wintered in the Yellow Sea, China seas, or inland China, and vice-versa. However, similar proportions of the 4 subspecies used many of the same regions at the center of the flyway (e.g., N Sakhalin Island and the Yellow Sea). Temporally, Dunlin subspecies staggered their south migrations and exhibited little temporal overlap among subspecies within shared migration regions. In contrast, Dunlin subspecies migrated simultaneously during north migration. South migration was also characterized by individuals stopping more often and for more days than during north migration. Taken together, these spatial-temporal migration dynamics indicate Dunlin subspecies may be differentially affected by regional habitat change and population declines according to where and when they occur. We suggest that the migration dynamics presented here are useful for guiding on-the-ground survey efforts to quantify subspecies' use of specific sites, and to estimate subspecies' population sizes and long-term trends. Such studies would significantly advance our understanding of Dunlin space-time dynamics and the coordination of Dunlin conservation actions across the EAAF.

Annual variation in waterbird clutch initiation date in relation to spring thaw in Arctic Russia.

To test for the degree of species-specific variation in clutch initiation date in relation to spring thaw, we recorded first egg dates in 1433 nests of seven large bodied long-distance migratory waterbird species breeding on Ayopechan Island in the Chaun Delta, Chukotka, in the Russian Arctic during 2002-2020. Pacific Loon Gavia pacifica, Sandhill Crane Grus canadensis and Glaucous Gull Larus hyperboreus all adjusted timing of clutch initiation completely to annual variation in first frost-free dates. First egg dates of Spectacled Eider Somateria fischeri also significantly advanced in warmer springs, but the rate of change was significantly less than unity, implying a reduced capacity to accommodate change in vernal thaw that may not be able to keep up with greater change in the future. Long-tailed Duck Clangula hyemalis and Vega Gull Larus vegae showed a tendency for earlier first egg dates in years with earlier first frost-free date, but for both species, the relationship failed to reach statistical significance. Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus showed almost no change in mean first egg date across the observed variation in first frost-free dates. Based on these data, we suggest that while all seven species showed signs of plasticity in their timing of onset of breeding, Pacific Loon, Sandhill Crane and Glaucous Gull showed greater adaptability to adjust the timing of their breeding season to recent variation in spring thaw than the other four species studied here over this period.

Modeling Eastern Russian High Arctic Geese (Anser fabalis, A. albifrons) during moult and brood rearing in the 'New Digital Arctic'.

Many polar species and habitats are now affected by man-made global climate change and underlying infrastructure. These anthropogenic forces have resulted in clear implications and many significant changes in the arctic, leading to the emergence of new climate, habitats and other issues including digital online infrastructure representing a 'New Artic'. Arctic grazers, like Eastern Russian migratory populations of Tundra Bean Goose Anser fabalis and Greater White-fronted Goose A. albifrons, are representative examples and they are affected along the entire flyway in East Asia, namely China, Japan and Korea. Here we present the best publicly-available long-term (24 years) digitized geographic information system (GIS) data for the breeding study area (East Yakutia and Chukotka) and its habitats with ISO-compliant metadata. Further, we used seven publicly available compiled Open Access GIS predictor layers to predict the distribution for these two species within the tundra habitats. Using BIG DATA we are able to improve on the ecological niche prediction inference for both species by focusing for the first time specifically on biological relevant population cohorts: post-breeding moulting non-breeders, as well as post-breeding parent birds with broods. To assure inference with certainty, we assessed it with 4 lines of evidence including alternative best-available open access field data from GBIF.org as well as occurrence data compiled from the literature. Despite incomplete data, we found a good model accuracy in support of our evidence for a robust inference of the species distributions. Our predictions indicate a strong publicly best-available relative index of occurrence (RIO). These results are based on the quantified ecological niche showing more realistic gradual occurrence patterns but which are not fully in agreement with the current strictly applied parsimonious flyway and species delineations. While our predictions are to be improved further, e.g. when synergetic data are made freely available, here we offer within data caveats the first open access model platform for fine-tuning and future predictions for this otherwise poorly represented region in times of a rapid changing industrialized 'New Arctic' with global repercussions.

Combining modern tracking data and historical records improves understanding of the summer habitats of the Eastern Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus.

The Lesser White-fronted Goose (Anser erythropus), smallest of the "gray" geese, is listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List and protected in all range states. There are three populations, with the least studied being the Eastern population, shared between Russia and China. The extreme remoteness of breeding enclaves makes them largely inaccessible to researchers. As a substitute for visitation, remotely tracking birds from wintering grounds allows exploration of their summer range. Over a period of three years, and using highly accurate GPS tracking devices, eleven individuals of A. erythropus were tracked from the key wintering site of China, to summering, and staging sites in northeastern Russia. Data obtained from that tracking, bolstered by ground survey and literature records, were used to model the summer distribution of A. erythropus. Although earlier literature describes a patchy summer range, the model suggests a contiguous summer habitat range is possible, although observations to date cannot confirm A. erythropus is present throughout the modeled range. The most suitable habitats are located along the coasts of the Laptev Sea, primarily the Lena Delta, in the Yana-Kolyma Lowland, and smaller lowlands of Chukotka with narrow riparian extensions upstream along major rivers such as the Lena, Indigirka, and Kolyma. The probability of A. erythropus presence is related to areas with altitude less than 500 m with abundant wetlands, especially riparian habitat, and a climate with precipitation of the warmest quarter around 55 mm and mean temperature around 14°C during June-August. Human disturbance also affects site suitability, with a gradual decrease in species presence starting around 160 km from human settlements. Remote tracking of animal species can bridge the knowledge gap required for robust estimation of species distribution patterns in remote areas. Better knowledge of species' distribution is important in understanding the large-scale ecological consequences of rapid global change and establishing conservation management strategies.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.

Correction to: Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

In the original published article, some of the symbols in figure 1A were modified incorrectly during the typesetting and publication process. The correct version of the figure is provided in this correction.

Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Ten grams and 13,000 km on the wing - route choice in willow warblers Phylloscopus trochilus yakutensis migrating from Far East Russia to East Africa.

BACKGROUND: High-latitude bird migration has evolved after the last glaciation, in less than 10,000-15,000 years. Migrating songbirds rely on an endogenous migratory program, encoding timing, fueling, and routes, but it is still unknown which compass mechanism they use on migration. We used geolocators to track the migration of willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus yakutensis) from their eastern part of the range in Russia to wintering areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Our aim was to investigate if the autumn migration route can be explained by a simple compass mechanism, based on celestial or geomagnetic information, or whether migration is undertaken as a sequence of differential migratory paths possibly involving a map sense. We compared the recorded migratory routes for our tracked birds with simulated routes obtained from different compass mechanisms. RESULTS: The three tracked males were very similar in the routes they took to their final wintering sites in southern Tanzania or northern Mozambique, in their use of stopover sites and in the overall timing of migration. None of the tested compass mechanisms could explain the birds' routes to the first stopover area in southwest Asia or to the destination in Southeast Africa without modifications. Our compass mechanism simulations suggest that the simplest scenarios congruent with the observed routes are based on either an inclination or a sun compass, assuming two sequential steps. CONCLUSIONS: The birds may follow a magnetoclinic route coinciding closely with the tracks by first moving west, i.e. closer to the goal, and thereafter follow a constant apparent angle of inclination to the stopover site. An alternative would be to use the sun compass, but with time-adjustments along the initial part of the migration to the first stopover, and thereafter depart along a new course to the winter destination. A combination of the two mechanisms cannot be ruled out, but needs to be confirmed in future studies.