Population-level mortality burden from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Europe and North America.

As of 31 January 2021, 63.9 million cases and 1.4 million deaths had been reported in Europe and North America, which accounted for 62.5% and 62.4% of the global total, respectively. Comparing the level of mortality across countries has proven difficult because of inherent limitations in the most commonly cited measures (e.g., case-fatality rates). We collected the cumulative number of confirmed deaths from COVID-19 by age in 2020 from the L'Institut National d'études Démographiques (INED) database and Statistics Canada for 15 European and North American countries. We calculated age-specific death rates and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for each country over a 1-year period from 6 February 2020 (date of first COVID-19 death in Europe and North America) to 5 February 2021 using established demographic methods. We estimated that COVID-19 was the second leading cause of death behind cancer in England and Wales and France and the third leading cause of death behind cancer and heart disease in nine countries including the US. Countries with higher all-cause mortality prior to the COVID-19 experienced higher COVID-19 mortality than countries with lower all-cause mortality prior to the pandemic. The COVID-19 ASDR varied substantially within country (e.g., a 5-fold difference among the highest and lowest mortality states in Germany). Consistently strong public health measures may have lessened the level of mortality for some European and North American countries. In contrast, many of the largest countries and economies in these regions may continue to experience a high mortality level because of poor implementation and adherence to such measures. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00115-9.

Transitions in frequency of hookah smoking among youth and adults: findings from waves 1 and 2 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study, 2013-15.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevalence of hookah smoking has increased in the United States since at least 2010, especially among youth and young adults. This study assessed self-reported reasons for hookah smoking cessation and transition to or maintenance of high-frequency hookah smoking among current hookah smokers. DESIGN: Separately analyzed data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study, a longitudinal cohort study. Frequency of and reasons for hookah smoking were ascertained at wave 1 (2013-14); frequency of hookah smoking and past-year cessation were ascertained at wave 2 (2014-15). Weighted multivariable logistic and ordinal logistic regression models were fitted to predict hookah smoking cessation and frequency of hookah smoking at wave 2, respectively, accounting for demographic and behavioral risk factors, reasons for hookah smoking and frequency of hookah smoking at wave 1. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 693 youth and 4400 adult past-year hookah smokers. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported tobacco-use patterns and associated health behaviors were measured via audio computer-assisted self-interviews (ACASI). FINDINGS: At wave 1, 5.9% of youth and 7.5% of adults were past-year hookah smokers. Among all age groups, the leading reasons for hookah smoking were enjoyment of socializing while smoking, the availability of appealing flavors and believing that it was less harmful than cigarette smoking. The odds of cessation were lower for adults who liked hookah flavors [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.26-0.62] compared with adults who did not like hookah flavors. The odds of transitioning to, or maintaining, monthly or more frequent hookah smoking at wave 2, compared with cessation or less than monthly smoking, were higher for adults who liked hookah flavors [adjusted proportional odds ratio (aPOR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.48-2.99 and enjoyed socializing while smoking hookah (aPOR = 1.82; 95% CI =1.13-2.94) compared with adults who did not like hookah flavors or socializing. CONCLUSION: The availability of appealing flavors, affordability and socialization while smoking hookah in the United States are associated with reduced likelihood of cessation and increased likelihood of high-frequency hookah smoking.

E-cigarette use and respiratory disorders: an integrative review of converging evidence from epidemiological and laboratory studies.

BACKGROUND: Use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) is prevalent among adolescents and young adults, but there has been limited knowledge about health consequences in human populations. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of results on respiratory disorders from studies of general-population samples and consider the mapping of these results to findings about biological processes linked to e-cigarettes in controlled laboratory studies. METHOD: We conducted a literature search and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies on the association of e-cigarette use with asthma and with COPD. We discuss findings from laboratory studies about effects of e-cigarettes on four biological processes: cytotoxicity, oxidative stress/inflammation, susceptibility to infection and genetic expression. RESULTS: Epidemiological studies, both cross-sectional and longitudinal, show a significant association of e-cigarette use with asthma and COPD, controlling for cigarette smoking and other covariates. For asthma (n=15 studies), the pooled adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.39 (95% CI 1.28-1.51); for COPD (n=9 studies) the aOR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.36-1.65). Laboratory studies consistently show an effect of e-cigarettes on biological processes related to respiratory harm and susceptibility to illness, with e-cigarette conditions differing significantly from clean-air controls, although sometimes less than for cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from epidemiological studies meets established criteria for consistency, strength of effect, temporality, and in some cases a dose-response gradient. Biological plausibility is indicated by evidence from multiple laboratory studies. We conclude that e-cigarette use has consequences for asthma and COPD, which is of concern for respirology and public health.

Sources of awareness, perceptions, and use of JUUL e-cigarettes among adult cigarette smokers.

INTRODUCTION: Given JUUL e-cigarettes' potential for smoking cessation and its drastically increased sales in the U.S., more evidence is needed to understand the antecedents of JUUL use among adult cigarette smokers. This study assessed the relationships between awareness sources, perceptions about using JUUL, and JUUL use behavior. METHODS: In an online study with adult smokers who were aware of JUUL e-cigarettes (n = 341), respondents reported their sources for learning about JUUL, perceptions of using JUUL versus Vuse (a competitor brand), and ever and past-30-day (current) JUUL use. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the associations between awareness sources, perceptions, and JUUL use, adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Learning about JUUL through internet ads was associated with positive perceptions about JUUL compared to Vuse, including JUUL was more fun to use (AOR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.21, 3.42) and tastier (AOR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.19, 3.22). Perceiving JUUL as being tastier (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.23, 3.49), more helpful for quitting smoking (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.22, 3.53), and cooler (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.21, 3.56) than Vuse was associated with ever using JUUL. Only perceiving JUUL as being tastier (AOR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.10, 3.59) than Vuse was associated with current use of JUUL. DISCUSSION: Adult smokers may be more likely to focus on the sensory and social experience of using JUUL rather than JUUL's smoking cessation benefits. These positive perceptions are likely to be influenced by internet ads in general instead of JUUL's official marketing outlets. They are also more likely to sustain JUUL use than JUUL's perceived smoking cessation benefits.

Role of e-cigarettes and pharmacotherapy during attempts to quit cigarette smoking: The PATH Study 2013-16.

BACKGROUND: More smokers report using e-cigarettes to help them quit than FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of e-cigarettes with future abstinence from cigarette and tobacco use. DESIGN: Cohort study of US sample, with annual follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: US adult (ages 18+) daily cigarette smokers identified at Wave 1 (W1; 2013-14) of the PATH Study, who reported a quit attempt before W2 and completed W3 (n = 2443). EXPOSURES: Use of e-cigarettes, pharmacotherapy (including nicotine replacement therapy), or no product for last quit attempt (LQA), and current daily e-cigarette use at W2. ANALYSIS: Propensity score matching (PSM) of groups using different methods to quit. OUTCOME MEASURES: 12+ months abstinence at W3 from cigarettes and from all tobacco (including e-cigarettes). 30+ days abstinence at W3 was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Among daily smokers with an LQA, 23.5% used e-cigarettes, 19.3% used pharmacotherapy only (including NRT) and 57.2% used no product. Cigarette abstinence for 12+ months at W3 was ~10% in each group. Half of the cigarette abstainers in the e-cigarette group were using e-cigarettes at W3. Different methods to help quitting had statistically comparable 12+ month cigarette abstinence at W3 (e-cigarettes vs no product: Risk Difference (RD) = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.06; e-cigarettes vs pharmacotherapy: RD = 0.02, 95% CI:-0.04 to 0.09). Likewise, daily e-cigarette users at W2 did not show a cessation benefit over comparable no-e-cigarette users and this finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. Abstinence for 30+ days at W3 was also similar across products. LIMITATIONS: The frequency of e-cigarette use during the LQA was not assessed, nor was it possible to assess continuous abstinence from the LQA. CONCLUSION: Among US daily smokers who quit cigarettes in 2014-15, use of e-cigarettes in that attempt compared to approved cessation aids or no products showed similar abstinence rates 1-2 years later.

Population-Level Mortality Rates from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: South Korea was among the first countries to report a case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outside of China. As of 22 March, 2020, South Korea reported 8897 confirmed cases of and 104 deaths from COVID-19. METHODS: We collected the number of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths in South Korea from the World Health Organization (as of 21 March, 2020) and case distribution and fatality rates by age from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (as of 22 March, 2020). We estimated population-level mortality rates by fitting a negative binomial regression model with the number of deaths as the outcome and population by age as an offset. We then calculated the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) based on the current COVID-19 figures and for alternative scenarios of increased prevalence. FINDINGS: The COVID-19 population-level mortality rate (per 100,000 person-years) increased with age: from 0.1 deaths among 30-39 year olds to 9.5 deaths among ≥80 year olds. The ASDR (per 100,000 person-years) was 0.8 deaths. The ASDR would increase to 52.0 deaths at a 1% prevalence (becoming the third leading cause of death) and 155.9 deaths at 3% prevalence (becoming the leading cause of death). INTERPRETATION: Currently, the population-level mortality burden of COVID-19 in South Korea, as measured by the ASDR, was relatively low compared to other causes of death partly due to the low prevalence of COVID-19. If the prevalence increases from another outbreak, the mortality burden could increase substantially and surpass other leading causes.

Occurrence of Discussion about Lung Cancer Screening Between Patients and Healthcare Providers in the USA, 2017.

Computed tomography lung cancer screening reduces lung cancer mortality. However, screening is underutilized. This study assesses the extent to which providers discuss lung cancer screening with their patients, as a lack of discussion and counseling may serve as a potential cause of low utilization rates. Data from 1667 adults aged 55-80 years sampled in the 2017 Health Information National Trends Survey was utilized. A weighted multivariable logistic regression model was fit with past-year discussion about lung cancer screening with a provider as the outcome. The adjusted odds of discussion were higher for current cigarette smokers compared to non-cigarette smokers (adjusted odds ratio = 3.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75 to 8.74). Despite higher odds, the absolute prevalence was low with only 18% (95% CI, 11.8 to 24.2%) of current adult smokers reporting a past-year discussion. Knowledge of screening from trusted sources of medical information, such as doctors, can increase screening rates and may ultimately reduce lung cancer mortality.

Associations Between Exposure and Receptivity to Branded Cigarette Advertising and Subsequent Brand Preference Among US Young Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure and receptivity to cigarette advertising are well-established predictors of cigarette use overall. However, less is known about whether exposure and receptivity to advertising for specific brands of cigarettes (ie, Marlboro, Camel, and Newport) are longitudinally associated with any subsequent cigarette use and subsequent use of those specific brands. METHODS: We analyzed data from a US sample of 7325 young adults aged 18-24 years who completed both Wave 1 and Wave 2 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. Weighted logistic regression models were used to examine (1) among Wave 1 never-smokers, associations between Wave 1 exposure and receptivity to advertising for Marlboro, Camel, and Newport and subsequent overall and brand-specific smoking initiation at Wave 2, and (2) among Wave 1 ever-smokers, associations between Wave 1 exposure and receptivity to advertising for Marlboro, Camel, and Newport and subsequent preference of those brands at Wave 2. RESULTS: Among Wave 1 young-adult never-smokers, exposure to Camel advertising, but not Marlboro or Newport, was associated with smoking initiation with any brand of cigarettes at Wave 2. Among Wave 1 young-adult ever-smokers, receptivity to Marlboro, Camel, and Newport advertising was associated with subsequent preference for each brand, respectively, at Wave 2. CONCLUSIONS: This study found evidence for the association between receptivity to branded cigarette marketing and subsequent use of that brand. These findings provide evidence regarding the pathways through which cigarette marketing attracts young adults to use cigarettes and can inform tobacco prevention and counter-marketing efforts. IMPLICATIONS: This study extends prior work on the effects of cigarette advertising exposure and receptivity by illustrating the brand specificity of this advertising. These findings provide evidence that receptivity to branded cigarette advertising is longitudinally associated with preference for those specific cigarette brands.

Association of Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children With Preterm Birth and Infant Mortality.

Importance: Nearly 4 in 10 expectant mothers in the United States received Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) benefits during pregnancy between 2011 and 2017. Despite public support for the program, empirical evidence of the success of the program varies substantially. Objective: To assess the association of WIC program participation during pregnancy by low-income expectant mothers covered by Medicaid with infant mortality by gestational age at birth and by maternal race/ethnicity in comparison with their counterparts who did not receive WIC benefits. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study obtained data from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2017, from US live birth certificates. Data were from 11 148 261 expectant mothers who delivered live births in states that have implemented the 2003 revision of the US live birth certificate and whose insurance coverage and receipt of WIC benefits were recorded on the birth certificates. Data analysis was performed from June 2019 to October 2019. Exposures: Receipt of WIC benefits during pregnancy. Main Outcomes and Measures: The first outcome was gestational age at birth: extremely preterm (<28 weeks), very preterm (28-32 weeks), moderate-to-late preterm (32-37 weeks), and normal term (≥37 weeks) births. The second outcome was death within the first year of life. Results: Among the 11 148 261 expectant mothers who delivered live births between 2011 and 2017 and were covered by Medicaid during pregnancy, the modal age at delivery was 20 to 24 years, the predominant race/ethnicity was non-Hispanic white (4 257 790 [38.2%]), and 8 145 770 (73.1%) received WIC benefits during pregnancy. The proportion of expectant mothers covered by Medicaid who also received WIC benefits decreased from 2011 to 2017 (79.3% to 67.9%; P < .001). The odds of preterm birth compared with normal term birth were lower among expectant mothers covered by Medicaid who received WIC benefits during pregnancy compared with their counterparts who did not receive WIC benefits during pregnancy (adjusted proportional odds ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.87). The odds of mortality within 1 year of birth were lower for infants whose mothers were covered by Medicaid and received WIC benefits during pregnancy compared with those who did not receive WIC benefits during pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.83-0.86). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that receipt of WIC benefits among expectant mothers with Medicaid coverage was associated with lower risk of preterm birth and infant mortality.

Reasons for engagement with online tobacco marketing among US adolescents and young adults.

INTRODUCTION: Engagement with online tobacco marketing among US adolescents increased from nearly 9% (2013-2014) to 21% (2014-2015). Such engagement increases the risk of tobacco use initiation. Despite the increase in the prevalence of and risks associated with engagement, the reasons why adolescents and young adults engage are not known. METHODS: A sample of 2619 adolescents (13-17 years) and 2625 young adults (18-24 years) living in the US participated in an online survey in July-August 2017. Engagement with online tobacco marketing was assessed through five forms of engagement (e.g. watched a video online promoting tobacco products). Reasons for engagement were assessed through an open-ended survey question. Prevalence of reasons for engagement was calculated overall, by tobacco use status, and by age group (adolescents and young adults). Multivariable logistic regression models were fit with engagement as the outcome (overall and specific reasons) and sociodemographics (including age, gender, and race/ethnicity) and tobacco use status (non-susceptible and susceptible never tobacco users; ever, but not past 30-day tobacco users; and past 30-day tobacco users) as covariates. RESULTS: Across all tobacco use statuses, the leading reasons for engagement were curiosity or desire for general knowledge about tobacco products (3.9%); incidental, unintended or forced exposure to tobacco ad (3.8%); and seeking discounts, coupons, incentives, or contests (2.9%). Susceptible never tobacco users were more likely to engage because of curiosity or general knowledge than non-susceptible never tobacco users (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=6.81; p<0.01). Past 30-day tobacco users were more likely to engage because of discounts, coupons, incentives, or contests and product appeal than ever, but not past 30-day tobacco users (AOR=7.10; p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Stricter state and federal regulation of tobacco marketing, specifically tobacco ads and coupons, and stronger self-regulation by social networking sites could reduce youth engagement with online tobacco marketing.

Online tobacco marketing among US adolescent sexual, gender, racial, and ethnic minorities.

INTRODUCTION: The tobacco industry has previously targeted sexual/gender and racial/ethnic minorities with focused campaigns in traditional, offline marketing. We assess whether these populations report more engagement with online tobacco marketing compared with heterosexual and non-Hispanic white youth. METHODS: Data were from 8015 adolescents sampled between 2014 and 2015 in the nationally-representative Population Assessment for Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. Engagement with online tobacco marketing within the past year was assessed through eight forms of engagement. A weighted logistic regression model was fit with engagement as outcome and socio-demographic and psychosocial characteristics, internet-related and substance use behavior, tobacco-related risk factors, tobacco use status, and prior engagement with online tobacco marketing as covariates. RESULTS: Accounting for other covariates including tobacco use status and prior engagement with online tobacco marketing, the odds of past-year engagement were higher for sexual minority males (aOR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.05-2.35) compared to straight males and higher for sexual minority females (aOR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.13-1.87) compared to straight females. The odds of past-year engagement were also higher for Hispanics (aOR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.11-1.56) and non-Hispanic Blacks (aOR = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.14-1.77) compared to non-Hispanic Whites. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual/gender and and racial/ethnic minority youth reported higher engagement with online tobacco marketing than their heterosexual and non-Hispanic white peers, respectively.

Association of Maternal Cigarette Smoking and Smoking Cessation With Preterm Birth.

Importance: Cigarette smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant mortality. Objective: To assess the probability of preterm birth among expectant mothers who smoked cigarettes before pregnancy and quit smoking at the start or during pregnancy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed information provided on live birth certificates from 2011 through 2017 that were obtained from US states that implemented the 2003 revision of the US live birth certificate. In total, 25 233 503 expectant mothers who delivered live neonates and had known prepregnancy and trimester-specific cigarette smoking frequency were included in the analyses. Exposures: Cigarette smoking frequency (1-9, 10-19, and ≥20 cigarettes per day) 3 months prior to pregnancy and for each trimester during pregnancy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cigarette smoking cessation throughout pregnancy, after the first trimester, after the second trimester, and during the third trimester irrespective of first and second trimester smoking. Probability of preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation). Results: Of 25 233 503 expectant mothers who delivered live neonates between 2011 and 2017, the modal age at delivery was 25 to 29 years; 52.9% were non-Hispanic white, 23.6% were Hispanic, and 14.2% were non-Hispanic black women; 22 600 196 mothers did not smoke during the 3 months prior to pregnancy, and 2 633 307 smoked during the 3 months prior to pregnancy. The proportion of prepregnancy smokers who quit throughout pregnancy was 24.3% in 2011 and 24.6% in 2017. The proportion of prepregnancy smokers who quit during the third trimester was 39.5% in 2011 and 39.7% in 2017. High-frequency cigarette smoking often occurred among expectant mothers who smoked during pregnancy (eg, 46.9% of third-trimester smokers smoked ≥10 cigarettes per day in 2017). The probability of preterm birth decreased more the earlier smoking cessation occurred in pregnancy. For example, the probability of preterm birth was 9.8% (95% CI, 9.7%-10.0%) among 25- to 29-year-old, non-Hispanic white, primigravida and primiparous expectant mothers (ie, pregnant for the first time and not yet delivered) who smoked 1 to 9 cigarettes per day prior to pregnancy and maintained this frequency throughout their pregnancy. The probability of preterm birth was 9.0% (95% CI, 8.8%-9.1%) if smoking cessation occurred at the start of the second trimester (an 8.9% relative decrease), and 7.8% (95% CI, 7.7%-8.0%) if cessation occurred at the start of pregnancy (a 20.3% relative decrease). Conclusions and Relevance: Quitting smoking-and quitting early in pregnancy-was associated with reduced risk of preterm birth even for high-frequency cigarette smokers.

Use of Flavored E-Cigarettes Among Adolescents, Young Adults, and Older Adults: Findings From the Population Assessment for Tobacco and Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: The use of flavored electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) is common among e-cigarette users, but little is known about the potential harms of flavorings, the extent to which the concurrent use of multiple flavor types occurs, and the correlates of flavor type use. The objective of this study was to assess the types of e-cigarette flavors used by adolescent (aged 12-17), young adult (aged 18-24), and older adult (aged ≥25) e-cigarette users. METHODS: We assessed the prevalence of flavored e-cigarette use within the past month by flavor types and concurrent use of multiple flavor types among past-month e-cigarette users sampled during Wave 2 (2014-2015) of the Population Assessment for Tobacco and Health Study among 414 adolescents, 961 young adults, and 1711 older adults. We used weighted logistic regression models for the use of fruit-, candy-, mint/menthol-, tobacco-, or other-flavored e-cigarettes and concurrent use of multiple flavor types. Covariates included demographic characteristics, e-cigarette use frequency, cigarette smoking status, current use of other tobacco products, and reasons for e-cigarette use. RESULTS: The leading e-cigarette flavor types among adolescents were fruit, candy, and other flavors; among young adults were fruit, candy, and mint/menthol; and among older adults were tobacco or other flavors, fruit, and mint/menthol. Compared with older adults, adolescents and young adults were more likely to use fruit-flavored e-cigarettes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.56-4.38; and aOR = 2.31; 95% CI, 1.77-3.01, respectively) and candy-flavored e-cigarettes (aOR = 3.81; 95% CI, 2.74-5.28; and aOR = 2.95; 95% CI, 2.29-3.80, respectively) and concurrently use multiple flavor types (aOR = 4.58; 95% CI, 3.39-6.17; and aOR = 2.28; 95% CI, 1.78-2.91, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Regulation of sweet e-cigarette flavors (eg, fruit and candy) may help reduce the use of e-cigarettes among young persons without substantially burdening adult e-cigarette users.

Sources of Awareness of JUUL E-cigarettes in 2 Surveys of Adults in the United States.

Objectives: Since their introduction in 2015, JUUL e-cigarettes have gained >60% of the United States (US) 2018 retail market share among branded e-cigarette companies. The sources through which consumers learn about JUUL e-cigarettes is not known. Methods: We assessed the sources of awareness about JUUL through 2 cross-sectional surveys of US adults (Survey 1: 502 18-24 year-olds; Survey 2: 803 smokers age 18+). Primary measures were awareness of JUUL and sources through which participants learned about JUUL. Results: Awareness of JUUL was greater among smokers and younger adults (age <30). Common sources of awareness were advertisements, news, and word-of-mouth. Conclusions: This study is the first to identify sources through which never, non-current ever, and current smokers learned about JUUL e-cigarettes. Regulatory efforts and educational interventions may opt to focus on these channels.