ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIM: Approximately 40% of patients develop abnormal glucose metabolism after a single episode of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediabetes self-assessment screening score for patients after acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Data from non-overlapping training (n=82) and validation (n=80) cohorts were analysed. Univariate logistic and linear regression identified variables associated with prediabetes after acute pancreatitis. Multivariate logistic regression developed the score, ranging from 0 to 215. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic, and calibration plots were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. The developed score was validated using data from the validation cohort. RESULTS: The score had an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic of 5.75 (p=0.676). Patients with a score of ≥75 had a 94.1% probability of having prediabetes, and were 29 times more likely to have prediabetes than those with a score of <75. The AUROC in the validation cohort was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 statistic was 5.50 (p=0.599). Model calibration of the score showed good calibration in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: The developed and validated score, called PERSEUS, is the first instrument to identify individuals who are at high risk of developing abnormal glucose metabolism following an episode of acute pancreatitis.
Subject(s)
Blood Glucose/metabolism , Pancreatitis/complications , Prediabetic State/diagnosis , Prediabetic State/etiology , Smoking , Waist Circumference , Acute Disease , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Area Under Curve , Diagnostic Self Evaluation , Female , Glycated Hemoglobin/metabolism , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pancreatitis/etiology , Prediabetic State/blood , Predictive Value of Tests , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Oral feeding intolerance (OFI) is a common complication in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Variations in blood glucose are associated with impaired gastrointestinal function but, to date, measures of glucose variability have not been investigated to predict OFI in patients with AP. AIM: To investigate the usefulness of several glucose variability measures in predicting the occurrence of OFI early in the course of AP. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, six measures of glucose variability were calculated prior to the occurrence of OFI. Multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were conducted, and the diagnostic performance and accuracy of glucose variability measures were assessed. RESULTS: Of the 95 prospectively enrolled patients, 21 (22%) developed OFI. After adjusting for confounders, admission blood glucose concentration and mean blood glucose concentration were significantly associated with OFI [odds ratio 1.49 (95% confidence interval 1.01-2.20) and odds ratio 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.07-2.61), respectively]. Both admission blood glucose and mean blood glucose had an area under the curve of 0.83 and positive likelihood ratios of 6.45 and 10.19, respectively. Blood glucose concentration before refeeding, standard deviation of blood glucose concentration, coefficient of variation, and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions were not significantly associated with OFI. CONCLUSION: In-hospital blood glucose concentrations are associated with subsequent development of OFI in patients with AP. In particular, admission blood glucose and mean blood glucose could be useful predictors of OFI in this setting.
