Monitoring and Prediction of Siberian Silk Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) Outbreaks Using Remote Sensing Techniques.

The feasibility of risk assessment of a Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) outbreak was analyzed by means of landscape and weather characteristics and tree condition parameters. Difficulties in detecting forest pest outbreaks (especially in Siberian conditions) are associated with the inability to conduct regular ground surveillance in taiga territories, which generally occupy more than 2 million km2. Our analysis of characteristics of Siberian silk moth outbreak zones under mountainous taiga conditions showed that it is possible to distinguish an altitudinal belt between 400 and 800 m above sea level where an outbreak develops and trees are damaged. It was found that to assess the resistance of forest stands to pest attacks, researchers can employ new parameters: namely, characteristics of a response of remote sensing variables to changes in land surface temperature. Using these parameters, it is possible to identify in advance (2-3 years before an outbreak) forest stands that are not resistant to the pest. Thus, field studies in difficult-to-access taiga forests are not needed to determine these parameters, and hence the task of monitoring outbreaks of forest insects is simplified substantially.

Introduction to the Special Series "Environmental Monitoring on Global and Local Scales".

The ecosystems of Siberia provide valuable services to the human population and afford important climate feedback. However, they are subject to anthropogenic pressures leading to the transformation of ecosystem structure and functions such as deforestation; extraction and transportation of fossil hydrocarbons; mining, refining, and smelting industrial activities; damming of rivers by high-pressure hydroelectric plants, and other activities. The articles in this special series deal with the monitoring of natural ecosystems of Siberia that are located on vast areas of Eurasia, many of which are hard to reach and sparsely populated. The results and approaches of environmental monitoring presented in this special series offer new opportunities for developing the strategy of intelligent management and conservation of vulnerable Siberian ecosystems to meet the challenges of global climate change and unsustainable use of natural resources. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:970-971. © 2023 SETAC.

Multiple rib fractures: does flail chest matter?

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported significant morbidity and mortality in patients with multiple rib fractures, even without flail chest. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical outcome and incidence of associated chest injuries between patients with and without flail chest, with three or more rib fractures. METHODS: This study included patients with blunt trauma with at least three rib fractures, hospitalised during 2010-2019 in the Hillel Yaffe Medical Center in central Israel (level II trauma centre). Patients with and without radiologically defined flail chest were compared with regard to demographics, Injury Severity Score (ISS), GCS, systolic blood pressure (SBP) on admission, radiological evidence of flail chest, associated chest injuries, length of stay in intensive care unit, length of hospitalisation and mortality. RESULTS: The study included 407 patients, of which 79 (19.4%) had flail chest. Overall, pneumothorax and haemothorax were more common among patients with flail chest (p<0.05). When comparing patients with three to five rib fractures, there was no difference in length of intensive care and length of hospitalisation or mortality; however, there was a higher incidence of pneumothorax (24.6% vs 50.0%, p<0.05). When comparing patients with six or more rib fractures, no difference was found between patients with and without flail chest. CONCLUSION: In patients with three to five rib fractures, pneumothorax is more common among patients with flail chest. Clinical significance of flail chest in patients with more than six rib fractures is questionable and flail chest may not be a reliable marker for severity of chest injury in patients with more than six fractures.

The Cyclicity of coronavirus cases: "Waves" and the "weekend effect".

INTRODUCTION: Medical statistics is one of the "milestones" of current medical systems. It is the foundation for many protocols, including medical care systems, government recommendations, epidemic planning, etc. At this time of global COVID-19, credible data on epidemic spread can help governments make better decisions. This study's aim is to evaluate the cyclicity in the number of daily diagnosed coronavirus patients, thus allowing governments to plan how to allocate their resources more effectively. METHODS: To assess this cycle, we consider the time series of the first and second differences in the number of registered patients in different countries. The spectral densities of the time series are calculated, and the frequencies and amplitudes of the maximum spectral peaks are estimated. RESULTS: It is shown that two types of cycles can be distinguished in the time series of the case numbers. Cyclical fluctuations of the first type are characterized by periods from 100 to 300 days. Cyclical fluctuations of the second type are characterized by a period of about seven days. For different countries, the phases of the seven-day fluctuations coincide. It is assumed that cyclical fluctuations of the second type are associated with the weekly cycle of population activity. CONCLUSIONS: These characteristics of cyclical fluctuations in cases can be used to predict the incidence rate.

A new modelling of the COVID 19 pandemic.

А model of coronavirus incidence is proposed. Process of disease development is represented as analogue of first- and second order phase transition in physical systems. The model is very simple in terms of the data necessary for the calculations. To verify the proposed model, only data on the current incidence rate are required. However, the determination coefficient of model R2 is very high and exceeds 0.95 for most countries. The model permits the accurate prediction of the pandemics dynamics at intervals of up to 10 days. The ADL(autoregressive distributed lag)-model was introduced in addition to the phase transition model to describe the development of the disease at the exponential phase.The ADL-model allows describing nonmonotonic changes in relative infection over the time, and providing to governments and health care decision makers the possibility to predict the outcomes of their decisions on public health.

Untangling metabolic and spatial interactions of stress tolerance in plants. 1. Patterns of carbon metabolism within leaves.

The localization of the key photoreductive and oxidative processes and some stress-protective reactions within leaves of mesophytic C(3) plants were investigated. The role of light in determining the profile of Rubisco, glutamate oxaloacetate transaminase, catalase, fumarase, and cytochrome-c-oxidase across spinach leaves was examined by exposing leaves to illumination on either the adaxial or abaxial leaf surfaces. Oxygen evolution in fresh paradermal leaf sections and CO(2) gas exchange in whole leaves under adaxial or abaxial illumination was also examined. The results showed that the palisade mesophyll is responsible for the midday depression of photosynthesis in spinach leaves. The photosynthetic apparatus was more sensitive to the light environment than the respiratory apparatus. Additionally, examination of the paradermal leaf sections by optical microscopy allowed us to describe two new types of parenchyma in spinach-pirum mesophyll and pillow spongy mesophyll. A hypothesis that oxaloacetate may protect the upper leaf tissue from the destructive influence of active oxygen is presented. The application of mathematical modeling shows that the pattern of enzymatic distribution across leaves abides by the principle of maximal ecological utility. Light regulation of carbon metabolism across leaves is discussed.