Risk stratification of ER-positive breast cancer patients: A multi-institutional validation and outcome study of the Rochester Modified Magee algorithm (RoMMa) and prediction of an Oncotype DX® recurrence score <26.

The skyrocketing cost of health-care demands that we question when to use multigene assay testing in the planning of treatment for breast cancer patients. A previously published algorithmic model gave recommendations for which cases to send out for Oncotype DX® (ODX) testing. This study is a multi-institutional validation of that algorithmic model in 620 additional estrogen receptor positive breast cancer cases, with outcome data on 310 cases, named in this study as the Rochester Modified Magee algorithm (RoMMa). RoMMa correctly predicted 85% (140/164) and 100% (17/17) of cases to have a low- or high-risk ODX recurrence score, respectively, consistent with the original publication. Applying our own risk stratification criteria, in patients who received appropriate hormonal therapy, only one of the 45 (2.0%) patients classified as low risk by our original algorithm have been associated with a breast cancer recurrence over 5-10 years of follow-up. Eight of 116 (7.0%) patients classified as low risk by ODX have been associated with a breast cancer recurrence with up to 11 years of follow-up. In addition, 524 of 537 (98%) cases from our total population (n = 903) with an average modified Magee score ≤18 had an ODX recurrence score <26. Patients with an average modified Magee score ≤18 or >30 may not need to be sent out for ODX testing. By avoiding these cases sending out for ODX testing, the potential cost savings to the health-care system in 2018 are estimated to have been over $100,000,000.

Use of modified Magee equations and histologic criteria to predict the Oncotype DX recurrence score.

Oncotype DX (Genomic Health, Redwood City, CA, USA, current list price $4,350.00) is a multigene quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction-based assay that estimates the risk of distant recurrence and predicts chemotherapy benefit for patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. Studies have suggested that standard histologic variables can provide similar information. Klein and Dabbs et al have shown that Oncotype DX recurrence scores can be estimated by incorporating standard histologic variables into equations (Magee equations). Using a simple modification of the Magee equation, we predict the Oncotype DX recurrence score in an independent set of 283 cases. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) for the Oncotype DX and average modified Magee recurrence scores was 0.6644 (n=283; P<0.0001). 100% of cases with an average modified Magee recurrence score>30 (n=8) or an average modified Magee recurrence score<9 (with an available Ki-67, n=5) would have been correctly predicted to have a high or low Oncotype DX recurrence score, respectively. 86% (38/44) of cases with an average modified Magee recurrence score≤12, and 89% (34/38) of low grade tumors (NS<6) with an ER and PR≥150, and a Ki-67<10%, would have been correctly predicted to have a low Oncotype DX recurrence score. Using an algorithmic approach to eliminate high and low risk cases, between 5% and 23% of cases would potentially not have been sent by our institution for Oncotype DX testing, creating a potential cost savings between $56,550.00 and $282,750.00. The modified Magee recurrence score along with histologic criteria may be a cost-effective alternative to the Oncotype DX in risk stratifying certain breast cancer patients. The information needed is already generated by many pathology laboratories during the initial assessment of primary breast cancer, and the equations are free.