Evaluation of future estuarine floods in a sea level rise context.

Reliable predictions of future inundation extent within estuaries require a precise evaluation of future extreme sea levels and the application of accurate numerical models that account for the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics. In this study, a methodology that integrates the estimation of local extreme sea levels with high-resolution numerical modeling was applied to assess the future inundation extent in five estuarine systems located on the Portuguese Coast. The main findings obtained were compared with available results from the popular bathtub approach, that disregards the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics and therefore provide imprecise predictions of inundation extent and associated socio-economic impacts. The inundation extent is revealed to be highly dependent on the extreme sea levels and on the estuarine geomorphology, which controls the propagating long-wave. As the long-wave height is highly attenuated within estuaries that have adjacent low-lying areas, restricted inlets, or extensive tidal flats, the results of this study revealed that the extent of inundation is considerably smaller than that obtained by the bathtub approach. The uncertainties associated with mean sea level rise and the estuarine geomorphological evolution constitute the greatest difficulty in assessing the extent of flooding, posing major challenges to the efficient and sustainable management of estuaries.

NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating.

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.

Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century?

Former studies about coastal upwelling along the Western Iberian Peninsula (WIP) using historical data indicated contradictory results, showing either its strengthening or reduction, while previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicated that global warming is likely to intensify this phenomenon although predicting different rates and not justifying the patterns found. Taking advantage of the recent high spatial resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections from EURO-CORDEX project (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 8.5), detailed higher accuracy estimations of the spatio-temporal trends of Upwelling Index (UI) along the WIP coast were performed in this study, integrating the coastal mesoscale effects within the framework of climate change. Additionally, this research brings new insights about the origin of the WIP coastal upwelling intensification over the next century. These new projections clarified the upwelling strengthening rates predicted along the coast of the WIP from 2006 to 2099 revealing more prominent changes in the northern limit of the region (25-30m3s-1km-1 per decade between 41.5 and 42.5°N). Trends observed at high latitudes of the region were found to be induced by the displacement of the Azores High, which will intensify (0.03hPa per decade) and drift northeastward (10km per decade) during the 21st century.

Unusual circulation patterns of the Rias Baixas induced by Minho freshwater intrusion (NW of the Iberian Peninsula).

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). The buoyancy generated by the Minho estuarine plume can reverse the normal circulation pattern inside the Rias Baixas affecting the exchange between the Rias and the ocean, changing the input of nutrients. Nevertheless, this inversion of the circulation patterns is not a well-monitored phenomenon. The only published results based on in situ data related to the presence of the Minho River plume inside the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra correspond to an event measured on spring 1998. In this case unexpectedly higher inflow surface current velocities were found at the Ria de Pontevedra, located further away from Minho River. Thus, the main aim of this study is to research the main factors inducing this unusual pattern on the circulation of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. A numerical model implementation of MOHID previously developed, calibrated, and validated for this coastal area was used. Several scenarios were performed in order to explain the individual effect of the Minho River, rivers discharging into each Rias, and estuarine morphology changes. According to the model results, the Minho River discharge is a key factor in the establishment of the negative circulation, while small rivers inside the Rias slightly attenuate this circulation. The negative circulation was stronger in Ria de Pontevedra independently of the distance of this coastal system from the Minho River mouth, showing that morphologic estuarine features are the main factor justifying the different local circulation patterns.

A numerical study of local variations in tidal regime of Tagus estuary, Portugal.

Tidal dynamics of shallow estuaries and lagoons is a complex matter that has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers over the last few decades. The main purpose of the present work is to study the intricate tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary, which states as the largest estuary of the Iberian Peninsula and one of the most important wetlands in Portugal and Europe. Tagus has large areas of low depth and a remarkable geomorphology, both determining the complex propagation of tidal waves along the estuary of unknown manner. A non-linear two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic model was considered to be adequate to simulate its hydrodynamics and an application developed from the SIMSYS2D model was applied to study the tidal propagation along the estuary. The implementation and calibration of this model revealed its accuracy to predict tidal properties along the entire system. Several model runs enabled the analysis of the local variations in tidal dynamics, through the interpretation of amplitude and phase patterns of the main tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses, form factor and tidal dissipation. Results show that Tagus estuary tidal dynamics is extremely dependent on an estuarine resonance mode for the semi-diurnal constituents that induce important tidal characteristics. Besides, the estuarine coastline features and topography determines the changes in tidal propagation along the estuary, which therefore result essentially from a balance between convergence/divergence and friction and advection effects, besides the resonance effects.