Bee and butterfly records indicate diversity losses in western and southern North America, but extensive knowledge gaps remain.

Pollinator losses threaten ecosystems and food security, diminishing gene flow and reproductive output for ecological communities and impacting ecosystem services broadly. For four focal families of bees and butterflies, we constructed over 1400 ensemble species distribution models over two time periods for North America. Models indicated disproportionally increased richness in eastern North America over time, with decreases in richness over time in the western US and southern Mexico. To further pinpoint geographic areas of vulnerability, we mapped records of potential pollinator species of conservation concern and found high concentrations of detections in the Great Lakes region, US East Coast, and southern Canada. Finally, we estimated asymptotic diversity indices for genera known to include species that visit flowers and may carry pollen for ecoregions across two time periods. Patterns of generic diversity through time mirrored those of species-level analyses, again indicating a decline in pollinators in the western U.S. Increases in generic diversity were observed in cooler and wetter ecoregions. Overall, changes in pollinator diversity appear to reflect changes in climate, though other factors such as land use change may also explain regional shifts. While statistical methods were employed to account for unequal sampling effort across regions and time, improved monitoring efforts with rigorous sampling designs would provide a deeper understanding of pollinator communities and their responses to ongoing environmental change.

The interaction between administrative jurisdiction and disturbance on public lands: Emerging socioecological feedbacks and dynamics.

Disturbance is one of the fundamental shapers of ecological communities, redistributing resources and resetting successional pathways. Human activities including resources management can influence disturbance regimes and trajectories by actively imposing or suppressing disturbance events or shaping ecosystem recovery via disturbance response. Furthermore, different management objectives may drive different disturbance responses. This suggests that the management jurisdiction to which a land parcel is assigned is likely to influence disturbance management and therefore ecological conditions within that parcel. Here, we combined two exploratory approaches to investigate this linkage. First, we used a systematic literature review to develop a typology of reported disturbance response types and strategies by federal land management agencies in the US. Second, we used Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data in five multi-jurisdictional ecosystems containing national parks to investigate the relationship between land ownership and large disturbance occurrence and between disturbance and tree growth rate. We found that agencies vary in the diversity of disturbance response tactics they are reported to employ, and disturbance types vary in the diversity of responses reported in the literature. Disturbance occurrence varied by land ownership type across the FIA dataset, and the direction of tree growth rate was influenced by the interaction between ownership type and disturbance occurrence in two of five examined ecosystems. Although our mixed methods approach was purely exploratory and not mechanistic, our findings suggest that disturbance response is one possible route by which management regimes may influence ecological conditions. Efforts to understand and predict ecological heterogeneity across large landscapes must consider variation in the social system as a potential contributor to such patterns.

Estimating social-ecological resilience: fire management futures in the Sonoran Desert.

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social-ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social-ecological fire risk, across the non-fire-adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi-jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience.

Land management objectives and activities in the face of projected fire regime change in the Sonoran desert.

As a multi-jurisdictional, non-fire-adapted region, the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion is a complex, social-ecological system faced increasingly with no-analogue conditions. A diversity of management objectives and activities form the socioecological landscape of fire management. Different managers have different objectives, resources, and constraints, and each therefore applies different activities. As a result, it can be difficult to predict the regional consequences of changing fire regimes. We interviewed and surveyed managers of 53 million acres of government-managed lands across the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion of Arizona, asking them to describe their management objectives and activities as well as expected changes in the face of projected fire regime change across the region. If current activities were deemed unlikely to meet objectives into the future, this represents a likely adaptation turning point, where new activities are required in order to meet objectives. If no potential activity will meet an objective, it may be necessary to select a new objective, indicating an adaptation tipping point. Here, we report which current objectives and activities are deemed by managers most likely and least likely to succeed. We also discuss constraints reported by managers from different jurisdictions. We find that agriculture, military, and resource extraction objectives are perceived by managers as most likely to be met, whereas conservation of natural and cultural resources is considered least likely to be achieved. Federal land managers reported higher likelihood of both achieving current objectives and adopting new activities than did non-federal land managers. This study illustrates how rapid global change is affecting the ability of land managers differing in missions, mandates, and resources to achieve their central objectives, as well as the constraints and opportunities they face. Our results indicate that changing environmental conditions are unlikely to affect all management entities equally and for some jurisdictions may result in adaptation turning points or tipping points in natural and cultural resource conservation.

Drought exacerbates negative consequences of high-intensity cattle grazing in a semiarid grassland.

Grasslands managed for grazing are the largest land-use category globally, with a significant proportion of these grasslands occurring in semiarid and arid regions. In such dryland systems, the effect of grazing on native plant diversity has been equivocal, some studies suggesting that grazing reduces native plant diversity, others that grazing increases or has little impact on diversity. One impediment toward generalizing grazing effects on diversity in this region is that high levels of interannual variation in precipitation may obfuscate vegetative response patterns. By analyzing a long-term data set collected over a 20-yr period in a semiarid grassland, we explicitly evaluated the role of climate in regulating the effect of cattle grazing on plant communities, finding that climate interacted with grazing intensity to shape grassland communities. Community composition of plots that were intensively grazed varied considerably in response to climatic variation and native species richness was low relative to ungrazed and moderately grazed plots. Following a severe drought in 2002, exotic species richness rapidly increased in the high-intensity grazing plots. While this pattern was mirrored in the other treatments, exotic species richness increased to a greater extent and was slower to return to pre-drought levels in the high-intensity grazing plots. Overall, moderate grazing, even compared to grazing cessation, stabilized grassland communities through time, increased resilience to drought, and maintained the highest levels of native plant diversity and lowest levels of exotic diversity. These findings suggest that grazing, at moderate levels, may support grassland resilience to climate change in semiarid regions. However, grazing that exceeds tolerances, particularly in combination with extreme climatic events, like drought, can alter plant composition over relatively long timescales and possibly increase invasibility by nonnative species.

Northward displacement of optimal climate conditions for ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum L. across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska.

Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30-year-old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short-term (tiller population growth rates) and long-term (17-year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long-lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous population decline.

Cultivating creativity in conservation science.

Conservation practitioners and scientists are often faced with seemingly intractable problems in which traditional approaches fail. While other sectors (e.g., business) frequently emphasize creative thinking to overcome complex challenges, creativity is rarely identified as an essential skill for conservationists. Yet more creative approaches are urgently needed in the effort to sustain Earth's biodiversity. We identified 4 strategies to develop skills in creative thinking and discuss underlying research and examples supporting each strategy. First, by breaking down barriers between disciplines and surrounding oneself with unfamiliar people, concepts, and perspectives, one can expand base knowledge and experiences and increase the potential for new combinations of ideas. Second, by meeting people where they are (both literally and figuratively), one exposes oneself to new environments and perspectives, which again broadens experiences and increases ability to communicate effectively with stakeholders. Third, by embracing risk responsibly, one is more likely to develop new, nontraditional solutions and be open to high-impact outcomes. Finally, by following a cycle of learning, struggle, and reflection, one can trigger neurophysiological changes that allow the brain to become more creative. Creativity is a learned trait, rather than an innate skill. It can be actively developed at both the individual and institutional levels, and learning to navigate the relevant social and practical barriers is key to the process. To maximize the success of conservation in the face of escalating challenges, one must take advantage of what has been learned from other disciplines and foster creativity as both a professional skill and an essential component of career training and individual development.

Ecology and conservation of ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) in a changing world.

American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) is an uncommon to rare understory plant of the eastern deciduous forest. Harvesting to supply the Asian traditional medicine market made ginseng North America's most harvested wild plant for two centuries, eventually prompting a listing on CITES Appendix II. The prominence of this representative understory plant has led to its use as a phytometer to better understand how environmental changes are affecting many lesser-known species that constitute the diverse temperate flora of eastern North America. We review recent scientific findings concerning this remarkable phytometer species, identifying factors through its history of direct and indirect interactions with humans that have led to the current condition of the species. Harvest, deer browse, and climate change effects have been studied in detail, and all represent unique interacting threats to ginseng's long-term persistence. Finally, we synthesize our current understanding by portraying ginseng's existence in thousands of small populations, precariously poised to either escape or be drawn further toward extinction by the actions of our own species.

Experimental test for adaptive differentiation of ginseng populations reveals complex response to temperature.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Local climatic adaptation can influence species' response to climate change. If populations within a species are adapted to local climate, directional change away from mean climatic conditions may negatively affect fitness of populations throughout the species' range. METHODS: Adaptive differentiation to temperature was tested for in American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) by reciprocally transplanting individuals from two populations, originating at different elevations, among temperature treatments in a controlled growth chamber environment. Fitness-related traits were measured in order to test for a population × temperature treatment interaction, and key physiological and phenological traits were measured to explain population differences in response to temperature. KEY RESULTS: Response to temperature treatments differed between populations, suggesting genetic differentiation of populations. However, the pattern of response of fitness-related variables generally did not suggest 'home temperature' advantage, as would be expected if populations were locally adapted to temperature alone. CONCLUSIONS: Failure consistently to detect a 'home temperature' advantage response suggests that adaptation to temperature is complex, and environmental and biotic factors that naturally covary with temperature in the field may be critical to understanding the nature of adaptation to temperature.

Evidence of local adaptation in the demographic response of American ginseng to interannual temperature variation.

Bioclimatic envelope models of species' responses to climate change are used to predict how species will respond to increasing temperatures. These models are frequently based on the assumption that the northern and southern boundaries of a species' range define its thermal niche. However, this assumption may be violated if populations are adapted to local temperature regimes and have evolved population-specific thermal optima. Considering the prevalence of local adaptation, the assumption of a species-wide thermal optimum may be violated for many species. We used spatially and temporally extensive demographic data for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) to examine range-wide variation in response of population growth rate (λ) to climatic factors. Our results suggest adaptation to local temperature, but not precipitation. For each population, λ was maximized when annual temperatures were similar to site-specific, long-term mean temperatures. Populations from disparate climatic zones responded differently to temperature variation, and there was a linear relation between population-level thermal optima and the 30-year mean temperature at each site. For species that are locally adapted to temperature, bioclimatic envelope models may underestimate the extent to which increasing temperatures will decrease population growth rate. Because any directional change from long-term mean temperatures will decrease population growth rates, all populations throughout a species' range will be adversely affected by temperature increase, not just populations at southern and low-elevation boundaries. Additionally, when a species' local thermal niche is narrower than its range-wide thermal niche, a smaller temperature increase than would be predicted by bioclimatic envelope approaches may be sufficient to decrease population growth.