Modelos para previsão das taxas de incidência e mortalidade do câncer do colo do útero / Models for predicting cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates / Modelos para predecir las tasas de incidencia y mortalidad del cáncer del cuello uterino

Objetivo:analisar e prever as taxasde incidência e mortalidade do câncer do colo do útero, utilizando modelos de séries temporais. Método:estudo ecológico de uma série histórica, realizado na Grande Cuiabá. Os dados de incidência foram referentes ao registro de câncer de base populacional(2000 a 2012) e os de mortalidade (1981 a 2018), obtidos no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Os dados foram analisados pelos modelos Arima e Holt. Resultados:na série da taxa de incidência do carcinoma in situ, o modelo adequado foi AR (1), cujasprojeções estimadas (2013-2014) flutuaram entre 15,54 e 16,45 por 100 mil mulheres. Na série da taxa do colo do útero invasor (modelo Holt), as previsões (2013-2014) foram entre 11,28 a 8,9 por 100 mil mulheres. Na taxa de mortalidade, o modelo satisfatório foi ARMA (1,1), cujas previsões (2019-2020) flutuaram entre 9,46 e 9,62 por 100 mil mulheres. Conclusão:nos três casos, as taxas previstas apresentaram níveis próximos dos observados, indicando que os modelos permitiram estimar e prever, de maneira adequada. Também foi possível observar um discreto aumento no câncer in situe um declínio na incidência do câncer invasor. Na mortalidade evidenciou uma estabilidade nos resultados e nas previsões.

Objective:to analyze and predict cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, using time series models. Method:ecological study of a historical series, with a secondary base, carried out in Greater Cuiabá. The incidence data referred to the population based cancer registry (2000 to 2012), and mortality data (1981 to 2018), obtained from the Mortality Information System. Data were analyzed by Arima and Holt models. Results:in the series of incidence rateof carcinoma in situ, the appropriate model was AR (1), whose estimated projections (2013-2014) fluctuated between 15,54 and 16,45 per 100.000 women. In the invasive cervix rate series (Holt model) the forecasts (2013-2014), with values between 11,28 to 8,9 per 100.000 women. In the mortality rate, a satisfactory model was ARMA (1,1), whose forecasts (2019-2020) fluctuated between 9,46 and 9,62 per 100.000 women. Conclusion:in the three cases, the predicted rates showed levels close to those observed, indicating that the models allowed estimating and predicting adequately. It was also possible to observe a slight increase in in situ cancer and a decline in the incidence of invasive cancer, in mortality, showing stability in results and predictions.

Objetivo: analizar y predecir tasas de incidencia y mortalidad por cáncer cervicouterino mediante modelos de series temporales. Método: estudio ecológico de una serie histórica, con base secundaria, realizado en la Grande Cuiabá. Los datos de incidencia se refierem a registro de cáncer de base poblacional (2000 a 2012), y los de mortalidad (1981 a 2018), obtenidos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Los datos fueron analizados por los modelos de Arima y Holt. Resultados:en la tasa de incidencia de carcinoma in situ, el modelo adecuado fue AR(1), cuyas proyecciones estimadas (2013-2014) oscilarón entre 15,54 y 16,45 por 100.000 mujeres. En la serie de tasa del cuello uterino invasivo (modelo de Holt) las previsiones (2013-2014), con valores entre 11,28 y 8,9 por 100.000 mujeres. En la tasa de mortalidad, el modelo satisfactorio fue ARMA(1,1), cuyas previsiones (2019-2020) oscilaron entre 9,46 y 9,62 por 100.000 mujeres. Conclusión:en los tres casos, las tasas pronosticadas mostrarón niveles proximos a los observados, indicando que los modelos permitierón estimar y predecir adecuadamente. También fue posible observar un ligero aumento en el cáncer in situ y una disminución en la incidencia del cáncer invasor. En la mortalidade mostrando estabilidad en los resultados y predicciones.

Cancer surveillance in Mato Grosso, Brazil: methodological and operational aspects of a university extension/research project.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the methodological and operational aspects of the "Project for surveillance of cancer and its associated factors: population-based and hospital-based registry" (VIGICAN), in the state of Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil. METHODS: VIGICAN was divided into two projects: a university extension one, which updated the data from the Population-based Cancer Registry (PBCR) of MT in the 2008-2016 period; and a research project, which collected primary data, through individual interviews and analysis of medical records of people with a diagnosis of cancer, aged 18 years or older, treated at reference hospitals for oncology. To analyze the factors associated with cancer, the following variables were collected: socioeconomic and demographic, social support, health status and behavior, and environmental exposure. RESULTS: In the 2008-2016 period, approximately one hundred thousand cases of cancer (incident and prevalent) were reported in the PBCR Cuiabá and PBCR Interior. After validation procedures, 50 thousand incident cases were elected. The survey interviewed 1,012 patients, 38.2% living in the municipalities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, 60.4% in small cities of the state, and 1.4% in other states. Preliminary data showed that the majority were women (55.0%) and younger than 60 years of age (54.3%). Among the interviewees, 7.2% reported smoking tobacco, 15.5% consumed alcoholic beverages (15.5%), and 32.7% lived nearby crops. CONCLUSION: The development of these projects allowed the integration of education with health services and will enable the recognition of specificities and different exposure scenarios and factors associated with cancer in the Mato Grosso territory.

Mortality trend and analysis of potential years of life lost due to leukemia and lymphoma in Brazil and Mato Grosso.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the mortality trend and to analyze the potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to leukemias and lymphomas in Brazil and Mato Grosso, from 2001 to 2019. METHODS: Time-series study on deaths from leukemias and lymphomas with data obtained from the Mortality Information System. Trends were calculated by age group by the Joinpoint regression method, using calendar year as regressor variable, estimated annual percentage change (APC) and mean annual percentage change, considering 95% confidence intervals. PYLL rates were collected from the Cancer Mortality Atlas. RESULTS: In Brazil, the mortality rate trend remained stable for both diseases in the period: leukemias (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.0-0.3) and lymphomas (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.4-0.1). In Mato Grosso state, the rate for leukemias was also stable (APC=0.3; 95%CI 1.0-1.6). For lymphomas, the trend was ascendant (APC=2.3; 95%CI 0.5-4.2), but descending among people younger than 59 years. For leukemias, PYLL rates were 64 and 65/100,000 in Brazil and Mato Grosso, respectively. For lymphomas, 27 and 22/100,000, respectively, with the highest rates found among males. CONCLUSION: The behavior of mortality rates from leukemia and lymphoma in Mato Grosso was different from that observed nationally, with an upward trend for lymphomas and no differences between age groups for both diseases. PYLL rates for leukemias were similar, while for lymphomas they were higher among men and lower in Mato Grosso when compared to Brazil.

Cancer Incidence in Mato Grosso state, Brazil: analysis of population-based registries (2007 a 2011).

OBJECTIVE: To analyze five types of cancer health region in the state of Mato Grosso according to sex. METHODS: A descriptive ecological study of the health regions of Mato Grosso state using two data sets on the incidence of population-based cancer registries in Mato Grosso - inland and Cuiabá. Age-adjusted annual incidence rates were calculated for the world population in 1960, according to sex, for the period comprising 2007 to 2011. RESULTS: Although we are still facing problems related to data completeness and quality, the most common cancer types were prostate, female breast, cervix, lung, colorectal and stomach cancer in the state of Mato Grosso from 2007 to 2011. The most frequent types among men were prostate and lung cancer. Among women, breast and cervix cancer were the most frequent ones. The highest incidence rates of cancer per 100,000 inhabitants were found in health regions Tangará da Serra, Sinop, Rondonópolis, and Porto Alegre do Norte. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the main types of cancer is important for the improvement of cancer prevention and control actions, as well as to understand its magnitude and impact on society. We must continue to improve the quality of information available in population-based cancer records in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Cervical cancer specific survival in Grande Cuiabá, Mato Grosso State, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate specific five-year survival in women diagnosed with cervical cancer living in the municipalities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study with information from the Cuiabá Population-based Cancer Registry and the Mortality Information System. To estimate the probability of specific survival in five years, the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the log-rank test were used aiming at verifying if there were statistical differences in the lifetime per groups. To verify the proportionality of the failure rates, the Schoenfeld residual test was used according to the statistical significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: Specific five-year survival and median time were 90.0% and 50.3 months, respectively, for cervical cancer. When analyzing by age, the highest specific survival was among women aged 20 to 49 years (91.7%) and median time was 53.3 months. For the histological type, the highest specific survival was among women with adenocarcinoma (92.3%) and the mean survival time was 53.5 months. CONCLUSION: This study showed that specific survival after five years of diagnosis remained about 90% in patients with cervical cancer. Patients aged 20 to 49 years had higher specific survival and there was statistically significant difference only between age groups.

Cervical cancer specific survival in Grande Cuiabá, Mato Grosso State, Brazil / Sobrevida específica do câncer do colo do útero na Grande Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil

ABSTRACT: Objective: To estimate specific five-year survival in women diagnosed with cervical cancer living in the municipalities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study with information from the Cuiabá Population-based Cancer Registry and the Mortality Information System. To estimate the probability of specific survival in five years, the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the log-rank test were used aiming at verifying if there were statistical differences in the lifetime per groups. To verify the proportionality of the failure rates, the Schoenfeld residual test was used according to the statistical significance level of 0.05. Results: Specific five-year survival and median time were 90.0% and 50.3 months, respectively, for cervical cancer. When analyzing by age, the highest specific survival was among women aged 20 to 49 years (91.7%) and median time was 53.3 months. For the histological type, the highest specific survival was among women with adenocarcinoma (92.3%) and the mean survival time was 53.5 months. Conclusion: This study showed that specific survival after five years of diagnosis remained about 90% in patients with cervical cancer. Patients aged 20 to 49 years had higher specific survival and there was statistically significant difference only between age groups.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Estimar a sobrevida específica em cinco anos de mulheres diagnosticadas com câncer do colo do útero que residem nos municípios de Cuiabá e Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso. Métodos: Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com informações provenientes do Registro de Câncer de Base Populacional de Cuiabá e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Para estimar a probabilidade de sobrevivência específica em cinco anos, foram utilizados o estimador de Kaplan-Meier e o teste de log-rank. Para verificar a proporcionalidade das taxas de falhas, usou-se o teste de resíduos de Schoenfeld, conforme o nível de significância estatística de 0,05. Resultados: A sobrevida específica em cinco anos e o tempo mediano de sobrevida foram de 90% e 50,3 meses, respectivamente, para o câncer do colo do útero. Quando se analisa por idade, a maior sobrevida específica foi entre as mulheres de 20 a 49 anos (91,7%) e o tempo mediano de sobrevida foi de 53,3 meses. Para o tipo histológico, a maior sobrevida específica foi entre as mulheres com adenocarcinoma (92,3%) e o tempo mediano de sobrevida foi de 53,5 meses. Conclusão: Este estudo mostrou que a sobrevida específica após cinco anos do diagnóstico se manteve em torno de 90% em pacientes com câncer de colo do útero. As pacientes entre 20 e 49 anos tiveram maiores sobrevidas específicas e houve diferença estatisticamente significativa somente entre as faixas etárias.

Cancer surveillance in Mato Grosso, Brazil: methodological and operational aspects of a university extension/research project / Vigilância do câncer em Mato Grosso, Brasil: aspectos metodológicos e operacionais de um projeto de extensão/pesquisa

ABSTRACT: Objective: To describe the methodological and operational aspects of the "Project for surveillance of cancer and its associated factors: population-based and hospital-based registry" (VIGICAN), in the state of Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil. Methods: VIGICAN was divided into two projects: a university extension one, which updated the data from the Population-based Cancer Registry (PBCR) of MT in the 2008-2016 period; and a research project, which collected primary data, through individual interviews and analysis of medical records of people with a diagnosis of cancer, aged 18 years or older, treated at reference hospitals for oncology. To analyze the factors associated with cancer, the following variables were collected: socioeconomic and demographic, social support, health status and behavior, and environmental exposure. Results: In the 2008-2016 period, approximately one hundred thousand cases of cancer (incident and prevalent) were reported in the PBCR Cuiabá and PBCR Interior. After validation procedures, 50 thousand incident cases were elected. The survey interviewed 1,012 patients, 38.2% living in the municipalities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, 60.4% in small cities of the state, and 1.4% in other states. Preliminary data showed that the majority were women (55.0%) and younger than 60 years of age (54.3%). Among the interviewees, 7.2% reported smoking tobacco, 15.5% consumed alcoholic beverages (15.5%), and 32.7% lived nearby crops. Conclusion: The development of these projects allowed the integration of education with health services and will enable the recognition of specificities and different exposure scenarios and factors associated with cancer in the Mato Grosso territory.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever os aspectos metodológicos e operacionais do projeto "Vigilância do câncer e seus fatores associados: registro de base populacional e hospitalar" (VIGICAN), em Mato Grosso (MT). Métodos: O VIGICAN desdobrou-se em dois projetos: um de extensão, que atualizou os dados dos Registros de Câncer de Base Populacional (RCBP) de Mato Grosso no período de 2008 a 2016; e um de pesquisa, que coletou dados primários por meio de entrevistas individuais e análise de prontuários de pessoas com diagnóstico de câncer, com 18 anos ou mais, atendidas em hospitais de referência para oncologia. Para analisar os fatores associados ao câncer, foram coletadas as seguintes variáveis: socioeconômicas e demográficas, suporte social, situação e comportamentos de saúde e exposição ambiental. Resultados: No período de 2008 a 2016, foram notificados nos RCBP Cuiabá e Interior, aproximadamente, 100 mil casos de câncer (incidentes e prevalentes). Após os procedimentos de validação, foram eleitos 50 mil casos incidentes. A pesquisa entrevistou 1.012 pacientes, sendo 38,2% residentes nos municípios de Cuiabá e Várzea Grande, 60,4% no interior do Estado e 1,4% em outros Estados. Os dados preliminares revelaram que a maioria era do sexo feminino (55,0%) e tinha menos de 60 anos (54,3%). Entre os entrevistados, 7,2% relataram fumar tabaco, 15,5% consumiam bebidas alcoólicas (15,5%) e 32,7% moravam próximo a lavouras. Conclusão: O desenvolvimento desses projetos permitiu a integração do ensino com os serviços de saúde e possibilitará o reconhecimento das especificidades e dos diferentes cenários de exposição ao câncer, bem como fatores associados a ele, no território mato-grossense.

Cancer Incidence in Mato Grosso state, Brazil: analysis of population-based registries (2007 a 2011) / Incidência de câncer em Mato Grosso: análise dos registros de base populacional (2007 a 2011)

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze five types of cancer health region in the state of Mato Grosso according to sex. Methods: A descriptive ecological study of the health regions of Mato Grosso state using two data sets on the incidence of population-based cancer registries in Mato Grosso - inland and Cuiabá. Age-adjusted annual incidence rates were calculated for the world population in 1960, according to sex, for the period comprising 2007 to 2011. Results: Although we are still facing problems related to data completeness and quality, the most common cancer types were prostate, female breast, cervix, lung, colorectal and stomach cancer in the state of Mato Grosso from 2007 to 2011. The most frequent types among men were prostate and lung cancer. Among women, breast and cervix cancer were the most frequent ones. The highest incidence rates of cancer per 100,000 inhabitants were found in health regions Tangará da Serra, Sinop, Rondonópolis, and Porto Alegre do Norte. Conclusions: Identifying the main types of cancer is important for the improvement of cancer prevention and control actions, as well as to understand its magnitude and impact on society. We must continue to improve the quality of information available in population-based cancer records in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Descrever os cinco principais tipos de câncer por região de saúde no Estado de Mato Grosso e por sexo. Métodos: Estudo ecológico descritivo das regiões de saúde do Estado de Mato Grosso, com as informações da incidência de câncer dos Registros de Câncer de Base Populacional do Mato Grosso — Interior e Cuiabá. Foram calculadas taxas médias anuais de incidência ajustadas por idade pela população mundial de 1960, desagregadas por sexo, para o período de 2007 a 2011. Resultados: Apesar de problemas de completude e qualidade dos dados, os principais cânceres do Estado de Mato Grosso (capital e interior) entre 2007 e 2011 foram próstata, mama feminina, colo do útero, pulmão, cólon e reto e estômago. Os cânceres mais frequentes para os homens foram os de próstata e pulmão. Entre as mulheres, foram os de mama e colo do útero. As maiores taxas de incidência de neoplasia por 100 mil habitantes por região de saúde foram: Tangará da Serra, Sinop, Rondonópolis e Porto Alegre do Norte. Conclusão: A identificação dos cânceres mais incidentes constitui fator fundamental para o aprimoramento das ações de prevenção e controle do câncer, assim como para a compreensão dessa magnitude e seu impacto na sociedade. Para isso, é necessária a continuidade na melhoria da qualidade das informações disponíveis nos Registros de Câncer de Base Populacional do Estado de Mato Grosso.

Mortality trend and analysis of potential years of life lost due to leukemia and lymphoma in Brazil and Mato Grosso / Tendência de mortalidade e análise de anos potenciais de vida perdidos por leucemias e linfomas no Brasil e em Mato Grosso

ABSTRACT: Objective: To estimate the mortality trend and to analyze the potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to leukemias and lymphomas in Brazil and Mato Grosso, from 2001 to 2019. Methods: Time-series study on deaths from leukemias and lymphomas with data obtained from the Mortality Information System. Trends were calculated by age group by the Joinpoint regression method, using calendar year as regressor variable, estimated annual percentage change (APC) and mean annual percentage change, considering 95% confidence intervals. PYLL rates were collected from the Cancer Mortality Atlas. Results: In Brazil, the mortality rate trend remained stable for both diseases in the period: leukemias (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.0-0.3) and lymphomas (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.4-0.1). In Mato Grosso state, the rate for leukemias was also stable (APC=0.3; 95%CI 1.0-1.6). For lymphomas, the trend was ascendant (APC=2.3; 95%CI 0.5-4.2), but descending among people younger than 59 years. For leukemias, PYLL rates were 64 and 65/100,000 in Brazil and Mato Grosso, respectively. For lymphomas, 27 and 22/100,000, respectively, with the highest rates found among males. Conclusion: The behavior of mortality rates from leukemia and lymphoma in Mato Grosso was different from that observed nationally, with an upward trend for lymphomas and no differences between age groups for both diseases. PYLL rates for leukemias were similar, while for lymphomas they were higher among men and lower in Mato Grosso when compared to Brazil.

RESUMO: Objetivos: Estimar a tendência de mortalidade e analisar os anos potenciais de vida perdidos (APVP) por leucemias e linfomas no Brasil e em Mato Grosso, entre os anos de 2001 e 2019. Métodos: Estudo de série temporal de óbitos por leucemias e linfomas obtidos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. As tendências foram calculadas por faixa etária pelo método de regressão joinpoint, usando ano calendário como variável regressora, e estimaram-se a variação percentual anual (APC) e a variação percentual média anual, considerando intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%). As taxas de APVP foram coletadas do Atlas de Mortalidade por Câncer. Resultados: No Brasil, a tendência da taxa de mortalidade apresentou estabilidade para ambos os agravos, leucemias (APC=0,2; IC95% 0,0-0,3) e linfomas (APC=0,2; IC95% 0,4-0,1). No estado, a taxa por leucemias também apontou estabilidade (APC=0,3; IC95% 1,0-1,6). Para os linfomas, a tendência foi de aumento (APC=2,3; IC95% 0,5-4,2), contudo tendência decrescente foi observada entre aqueles com menos de 59 anos. Para leucemias, as taxas de APVP foram de 64 e 65/100 mil no Brasil e em Mato Grosso, respectivamente. Para linfomas, esses valores foram de 27 e 22/100 mil, respectivamente, sendo as maiores taxas encontradas no sexo masculino. Conclusão: As taxas de mortalidade por leucemias e linfomas em Mato Grosso apresentam comportamento diferente do observado nacionalmente, com tendência crescente para linfomas e sem diferenças entre as faixas etárias, para ambos os agravos. As taxas de APVP por leucemias foram semelhantes, no entanto para os linfomas foram maiores entre os homens e menores para o estado, quando comparadas com as do Brasil.