Source reservoir controls on the size, frequency, and composition of large-scale volcanic eruptions.

Large-scale, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena. We demonstrate that their size, frequency, and composition can be explained by processes in long-lived, high-crystallinity source reservoirs that control the episodic creation of large volumes of eruptible silicic magma and its delivery to the subvolcanic chamber where it is stored before eruption. Melt percolates upward through the reservoir and accumulates a large volume of low-crystallinity silicic magma which remains trapped until buoyancy causes magma-driven fractures to propagate into the overlying crust, allowing rapid magma transfer from the reservoir into the chamber. Ongoing melt percolation in the reservoir accumulates a new magma layer and the process repeats. Our results suggest that buoyancy, rather than crystallinity, is the key control on magma delivery from the source reservoir. They identify an optimum reservoir size for the largest silicic eruptions that is consistent with data from natural systems and explain why larger magnitude eruptions are not observed on Earth.

Fallibility of tattooing colonic neoplasia ahead of laparoscopic resection: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Precise geographical localisation of colonic neoplasia is a prerequisite for proper laparoscopic oncological resection. Preoperative endoscopic peri-tumoural tattoo practice is routinely recommended but seldom scrutinised. METHODS: A retrospective review of recent consecutive patients with preoperative endoscopic lesional tattoo who underwent laparoscopic colonic resection as identified from our prospectively maintained cancer database with supplementary clinical chart and radiological, histological, endoscopic and theatre database/logbook interrogation. RESULTS: Some 210 patients with 'tattooed' colonic neoplasia were identified, of whom 169 underwent laparoscopic surgery (mean age 68 years, median BMI 27.8kg/m2, male-to-female ratio 95:74). The majority of tumours were malignant (149; 88%), symptomatic (133; 79%) and proximal to the splenic flexure (92; 54%). Inaccurate colonoscopist localisation judgement occurred in 12% of cases, 60% of which were corrected by preoperative staging computed tomography scan. A useful lesional tattoo was absent in 11/169 cases (6.5%) being specifically stated as present in 104 operation notes (61%) and absent in 10 (5.9%). Tumours missing overt peritumoral tattoos intraoperatively were more likely to be smaller, earlier stage and injected longer preoperatively (p=0.006), although half had histological ink staining. Eight lesions missing tattoos were radiologically occult. Four (44%) of these patients had on-table colonoscopy, and five (55%) needed laparotomy (conversion rate 55% vs 23% overall, p<0.005) with one needing a second operation to resect the initially missed target lesion. Mean (range) operative duration and postoperative length of stay of those missing tattoos compared with those with tattoos was 200 (78-300) versus 188 (50-597) min and 15.5 (4-22) versus 12(4-70) days (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Tattoo in advance of attempting laparoscopic resection is vital for precision cancer surgery especially for radiologically unseen tumours to avoid adverse clinical consequence.

Alternative COVID-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: analysis using an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has impacted children's education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to periods of absence and classroom closures. We developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a school classroom that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties. Our approach is based on a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies in suppressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence are considered. COVID-19 infections in primary schools in England in autumn 2020 were re-examined and the model was then used to estimate infection levels in autumn 2021, as the Delta variant was emerging and it was thought likely that school transmission would play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance is more effective than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission and avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of absences, with only modest impact on classroom infections. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major benefit for managing COVID-19 in school settings.

Timescales for pluton growth, magma-chamber formation and super-eruptions.

Generation of silicic magmas leads to emplacement of granite plutons, huge explosive volcanic eruptions and physical and chemical zoning of continental and arc crust1-7. Whereas timescales for silicic magma generation in the deep and middle crust are prolonged8, magma transfer into the upper crust followed by eruption is episodic and can be rapid9-12. Ages of inherited zircons and sanidines from four Miocene ignimbrites in the Central Andes indicate a gap of 4.6 Myr between initiation of pluton emplacement and onset of super-eruptions, with a 1-Myr cyclicity. We show that inherited zircons and sanidine crystals were stored at temperatures <470 °C in these plutons before incorporation in ignimbrite magmas. Our observations can be explained by silicic melt segregation in a middle-crustal hot zone with episodic melt ascent from an unstable layer at the top of the zone with a timescale governed by the rheology of the upper crust. After thermal incubation of growing plutons, large upper-crustal magma chambers can form in a few thousand years or less by dike transport from the hot-zone melt layer. Instability and disruption of earlier plutonic rock occurred in a few decades or less just before or during super-eruptions.

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent.

A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

Exploring the importance of work outcomes in gynaecological patients.

BACKGROUND: There has been increasing evidence that physicians in gynaecology are not routinely enquiring about work during consultations. AIMS: To explore the effect gynaecological conditions can have on work functioning, the importance of work outcomes among patients and whether work considerations are discussed during clinical consultations. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was administered to employed patients attending a gynaecological clinic at Guy's Hospital. The survey assessed four areas: demographics, gynaecological condition (including self-assessed severity), work status and perceived impact of the condition on work functioning and job satisfaction. Simple descriptive analysis and statistical techniques were used to interpret the data. RESULTS: One hundred and six participants participated (mean age: 37.49 ±â€…9.09). About 95% found it important to be able to work whilst receiving treatment and 82% of patients had reported at least a slight impact on their working ability due to their condition. Of the 31 patients for whom it was their first appointment, 77% said it would be useful to discuss the possible impacts their gynaecological condition could have on their work. About 66% (19/29) of the participants attending a follow-up appointment reported that their doctor had not discussed their work with them. CONCLUSIONS: The symptoms of gynaecological conditions can impact patients' ability to work. There is a lack of useful discussion from doctors about the perceived impact gynaecological conditions can have on a patient's ability to work, despite patients finding it important to be able to remain or return to work.

Pupils returning to primary schools in England during 2020: rapid estimations of punctual COVID-19 infection rates.

Drawing on risk methods from volcano crises, we developed a rapid COVID-19 infection model for the partial return of pupils to primary schools in England in June and July 2020, and a full return in September 2020. The model handles uncertainties in key parameters, using a stochastic re-sampling technique, allowing us to evaluate infection levels as a function of COVID-19 prevalence and projected pupil and staff headcounts. Assuming average national adult prevalence, for the first scenario (as at 1 June 2020) we found that between 178 and 924 [90% CI] schools would have at least one infected individual, out of 16 769 primary schools in total. For the second return (July), our estimate ranged between 336 (2%) and 1873 (11%) infected schools. For a full return in September 2020, our projected range was 661 (4%) to 3310 (20%) infected schools, assuming the same prevalence as for 5 June. If national prevalence fell to one-quarter of that, the projected September range would decrease to between 381 (2%) and 900 (5%) schools but would increase to between 2131 (13%) and 9743 (58%) schools if prevalence increased to 4× June level. When regional variations in prevalence and school size distribution were included in the model, a slight decrease in the projected number of infected schools was indicated, but uncertainty on estimates increased markedly. The latter model variant indicated that 82% of infected schools would be in areas where prevalence exceeded the national average and the probability of multiple infected persons in a school would be higher in such areas. Post hoc, our model projections for 1 September 2020 were seen to have been realistic and reasonable (in terms of related uncertainties) when data on schools' infections were released by official agencies following the start of the 2020/2021 academic year.

A novel approach for evaluating contact patterns and risk mitigation strategies for COVID-19 in English primary schools with application of structured expert judgement.

Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers to quantify primary school contact patterns and how contact rates changed upon re-opening with risk mitigation measures in place. These rates, with uncertainties, were determined using a performance-based algorithm. We report mean number of contacts per day for four cohorts within schools, with associated 90% confidence ranges. Prior to lockdown, younger children (Reception and Year 1) made 15 contacts per day [range 8.35] within school, older children (Year 6) 18 contacts [range 5.55], teaching staff 25 contacts [range 4.55] and non-classroom staff 11 contacts [range 2.27]. After re-opening, the mean number of contacts was reduced by 53% for young children, 62% for older children, 60% for classroom staff and 64% for other staff. Contacts between teaching and non-teaching staff reduced by 80%. The distributions of contacts per person are asymmetric with heavy tail reflecting a few individuals with high contact numbers. Questions on risk mitigation and supplementary structured interviews elucidated how new measures reduced daily contacts in-school and contribute to infection risk reduction.

VOLCORE, a global database of visible tephra layers sampled by ocean drilling.

The VOLCORE (Volcanic Core Records) database is a collection of 34,696 visible tephra (volcanic ash and lithological or grain size variations) occurrences reported in the initial reports volumes of all of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP; 1966-1983), the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP; 1983-2003), the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP; 2003-2013) and the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP; 2013-present) up to and including IODP Expedition 381. The combined international ocean drilling programmes (OD) have locations with global coverage. Cored tephra layers and tephra-bearing sediments span timescales from recent to ~150 million years in age. This database is a collection of information about reported visible tephra layers entirely or predominantly composed of volcanic ash. Data include the depth below sea floor, tephra thickness, location, and any reported comments. An approximate age was estimated for most (29,493) of the tephra layers using published age-depth models. The database can be used as a starting point for studies of tephrochronology, volcanology, geochemistry, studies of sediment transport and palaeoclimatology.

Formation and dynamics of magma reservoirs.

The emerging concept of a magma reservoir is one in which regions containing melt extend from the source of magma generation to the surface. The reservoir may contain regions of very low fraction intergranular melt, partially molten rock (mush) and melt lenses (or magma chambers) containing high melt fraction eruptible magma, as well as pockets of exsolved magmatic fluids. The various parts of the system may be separated by a sub-solidus rock or be connected and continuous. Magma reservoirs and their wall rocks span a vast array of rheological properties, covering as much as 25 orders of magnitude from high viscosity, sub-solidus crustal rocks to magmatic fluids. Time scales of processes within magma reservoirs range from very slow melt and fluid segregation within mush and magma chambers and deformation of surrounding host rocks to very rapid development of magma and fluid instability, transport and eruption. Developing a comprehensive model of these systems is a grand challenge that will require close collaboration between modellers, geophysicists, geochemists, geologists, volcanologists and petrologists. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

Chemical differentiation, cold storage and remobilization of magma in the Earth's crust.

The formation, storage and chemical differentiation of magma in the Earth's crust is of fundamental importance in igneous geology and volcanology. Recent data are challenging the high-melt-fraction 'magma chamber' paradigm that has underpinned models of crustal magmatism for over a century, suggesting instead that magma is normally stored in low-melt-fraction 'mush reservoirs'1-9. A mush reservoir comprises a porous and permeable framework of closely packed crystals with melt present in the pore space1,10. However, many common features of crustal magmatism have not yet been explained by either the 'chamber' or 'mush reservoir' concepts1,11. Here we show that reactive melt flow is a critical, but hitherto neglected, process in crustal mush reservoirs, caused by buoyant melt percolating upwards through, and reacting with, the crystals10. Reactive melt flow in mush reservoirs produces the low-crystallinity, chemically differentiated (silicic) magmas that ascend to form shallower intrusions or erupt to the surface11-13. These magmas can host much older crystals, stored at low and even sub-solidus temperatures, consistent with crystal chemistry data6-9. Changes in local bulk composition caused by reactive melt flow, rather than large increases in temperature, produce the rapid increase in melt fraction that remobilizes these cool- or cold-stored crystals. Reactive flow can also produce bimodality in magma compositions sourced from mid- to lower-crustal reservoirs14,15. Trace-element profiles generated by reactive flow are similar to those observed in a well studied reservoir now exposed at the surface16. We propose that magma storage and differentiation primarily occurs by reactive melt flow in long-lived mush reservoirs, rather than by the commonly invoked process of fractional crystallization in magma chambers14.

Vertically extensive and unstable magmatic systems: A unified view of igneous processes.

Volcanoes are an expression of their underlying magmatic systems. Over the past three decades, the classical focus on upper crustal magma chambers has expanded to consider magmatic processes throughout the crust. A transcrustal perspective must balance slow (plate tectonic) rates of melt generation and segregation in the lower crust with new evidence for rapid melt accumulation in the upper crust before many volcanic eruptions. Reconciling these observations is engendering active debate about the physical state, spatial distribution, and longevity of melt in the crust. Here we review evidence for transcrustal magmatic systems and highlight physical processes that might affect the growth and stability of melt-rich layers, focusing particularly on conditions that cause them to destabilize, ascend, and accumulate in voluminous but ephemeral shallow magma chambers.

Increased rates of large-magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan in the late Neogene and Quaternary.

Tephra layers in marine sediment cores from scientific ocean drilling largely record high-magnitude silicic explosive eruptions in the Japan arc for up to the last 20 million years. Analysis of the thickness variation with distance of 180 tephra layers from a global data set suggests that the majority of the visible tephra layers used in this study are the products of caldera-forming eruptions with magnitude (M) > 6, considering their distances at the respective drilling sites to their likely volcanic sources. Frequency of visible tephra layers in cores indicates a marked increase in rates of large magnitude explosive eruptions at ∼8 Ma, 6-4 Ma, and further increase after ∼2 Ma. These changes are attributed to major changes in tectonic plate interactions. Lower rates of large magnitude explosive volcanism in the Miocene are related to a strike-slip-dominated boundary (and temporary cessation or deceleration of subduction) between the Philippine Sea Plate and southwest Japan, combined with the possibility that much of the arc in northern Japan was submerged beneath sea level partly due to previous tectonic extension of northern Honshu related to formation of the Sea of Japan. Changes in plate motions and subduction dynamics during the ∼8 Ma to present period led to (1) increased arc-normal subduction in southwest Japan (and resumption of arc volcanism) and (2) shift from extension to compression of the upper plate in northeast Japan, leading to uplift, crustal thickening and favorable conditions for accumulation of the large volumes of silicic magma needed for explosive caldera-forming eruptions.

An objective method for the production of isopach maps and implications for the estimation of tephra deposit volumes and their uncertainties.

Characterization of explosive volcanic eruptive processes from interpretation of deposits is a key for assessing volcanic hazard and risk, particularly for infrequent large explosive eruptions and those whose deposits are transient in the geological record. While eruption size-determined by measurement and interpretation of tephra fall deposits-is of particular importance, uncertainties for such measurements and volume estimates are rarely presented. Here, tephra volume estimates are derived from isopach maps produced by modeling raw thickness data as cubic B-spline curves under tension. Isopachs are objectively determined in relation to original data and enable limitations in volume estimates from published maps to be investigated. The eruption volumes derived using spline isopachs differ from selected published estimates by 15-40 %, reflecting uncertainties in the volume estimation process. The formalized analysis enables identification of sources of uncertainty; eruptive volume uncertainties (>30 %) are much greater than thickness measurement uncertainties (~10 %). The number of measurements is a key factor in volume estimate uncertainty, regardless of method utilized for isopach production. Deposits processed using the cubic B-spline method are well described by 60 measurements distributed across each deposit; however, this figure is deposit and distribution dependent, increasing for geometrically complex deposits, such as those exhibiting bilobate dispersion.

Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises.

Eruptions at the Icelandic volcanoes of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grimsvötn (2011) produced plumes of ash posing hazards to air traffic over northern Europe. In imposing restrictions on air traffic, regulators needed to balance the dangers of accidents or aircraft damage against the cost and inconvenience to travelers and industry. Two surveys examined how members of the public viewed the necessity of the imposed restrictions and their trust in different agencies as estimators of the level of risk. Study 1 was conducted with 213 British citizens (112 males, 101 females), who completed questionnaires while waiting for flights at London City Airport during May 2012. Study 2 involved an online survey of 301 Icelandic citizens (172 males, 127 females, 2 undeclared gender) during April 2012. In both samples, there was general support for the air traffic restrictions, especially among those who gave higher estimates of the likelihood of an air accident or mishap having otherwise happened. However, in both countries, the (minority of) respondents who had personally experienced travel disruption were less convinced that these restrictions were all necessary. Scientists, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and (in Iceland) the Icelandic Department of Civil Protection were all highly trusted, and seen as erring on the side of caution in their risk estimates. Airlines were seen as more likely to underestimate any risk. We conclude that perceptions of the balance between risk and caution in judgments under uncertainty are influenced by one's own motives and those attributed to others.

Global link between deformation and volcanic eruption quantified by satellite imagery.

A key challenge for volcanological science and hazard management is that few of the world's volcanoes are effectively monitored. Satellite imagery covers volcanoes globally throughout their eruptive cycles, independent of ground-based monitoring, providing a multidecadal archive suitable for probabilistic analysis linking deformation with eruption. Here we show that, of the 198 volcanoes systematically observed for the past 18 years, 54 deformed, of which 25 also erupted. For assessing eruption potential, this high proportion of deforming volcanoes that also erupted (46%), together with the proportion of non-deforming volcanoes that did not erupt (94%), jointly represent indicators with 'strong' evidential worth. Using a larger catalogue of 540 volcanoes observed for 3 years, we demonstrate how this eruption-deformation relationship is influenced by tectonic, petrological and volcanic factors. Satellite technology is rapidly evolving and routine monitoring of the deformation status of all volcanoes from space is anticipated, meaning probabilistic approaches will increasingly inform hazard decisions and strategic development.

Hydrothermal alteration of kimberlite by convective flows of external water.

Kimberlite volcanism involves the emplacement of olivine-rich volcaniclastic deposits into volcanic vents or pipes. Kimberlite deposits are typically pervasively serpentinised as a result of the reaction of olivine and water within a temperature range of 130-400 °C or less. We present a model for the influx of ground water into hot kimberlite deposits coupled with progressive cooling and serpentisation. Large-pressure gradients cause influx and heating of water within the pipe with horizontal convergent flow in the host rock and along pipe margins, and upward flow within the pipe centre. Complete serpentisation is predicted for wide ranges of permeability of the host rocks and kimberlite deposits. For typical pipe dimensions, cooling times are centuries to a few millennia. Excess volume of serpentine results in filling of pore spaces, eventually inhibiting fluid flow. Fresh olivine is preserved in lithofacies with initial low porosity, and at the base of the pipe where deeper-level host rocks have low permeability, and the pipe is narrower leading to faster cooling. These predictions are consistent with fresh olivine and serpentine distribution in the Diavik A418 kimberlite pipe, (NWT, Canada) and with features of kimberlites of the Yakutian province in Russia affected by influx of ground water brines. Fast reactions and increases in the volume of solid products compared to the reactants result in self-sealing and low water-rock ratios (estimated at <0.2). Such low water-rock ratios result in only small changes in stable isotope compositions; for example, δO18 is predicted only to change slightly from mantle values. The model supports alteration of kimberlites predominantly by interactions with external non-magmatic fluids.

Kimberlite ascent and eruption.

Wilson and Head model kimberlite ascent and eruption by considering the propagation of a volatile-rich dyke. Wilson and Head's model has features in common with Sparks et al., but it is inconsistent with geological observations and constraints on volatile solubility. Here we show that this may be due to erroneous physical assumptions.