Source reservoir controls on the size, frequency, and composition of large-scale volcanic eruptions.

Large-scale, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the Earth's most hazardous natural phenomena. We demonstrate that their size, frequency, and composition can be explained by processes in long-lived, high-crystallinity source reservoirs that control the episodic creation of large volumes of eruptible silicic magma and its delivery to the subvolcanic chamber where it is stored before eruption. Melt percolates upward through the reservoir and accumulates a large volume of low-crystallinity silicic magma which remains trapped until buoyancy causes magma-driven fractures to propagate into the overlying crust, allowing rapid magma transfer from the reservoir into the chamber. Ongoing melt percolation in the reservoir accumulates a new magma layer and the process repeats. Our results suggest that buoyancy, rather than crystallinity, is the key control on magma delivery from the source reservoir. They identify an optimum reservoir size for the largest silicic eruptions that is consistent with data from natural systems and explain why larger magnitude eruptions are not observed on Earth.

VOLCORE, a global database of visible tephra layers sampled by ocean drilling.

The VOLCORE (Volcanic Core Records) database is a collection of 34,696 visible tephra (volcanic ash and lithological or grain size variations) occurrences reported in the initial reports volumes of all of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP; 1966-1983), the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP; 1983-2003), the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP; 2003-2013) and the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP; 2013-present) up to and including IODP Expedition 381. The combined international ocean drilling programmes (OD) have locations with global coverage. Cored tephra layers and tephra-bearing sediments span timescales from recent to ~150 million years in age. This database is a collection of information about reported visible tephra layers entirely or predominantly composed of volcanic ash. Data include the depth below sea floor, tephra thickness, location, and any reported comments. An approximate age was estimated for most (29,493) of the tephra layers using published age-depth models. The database can be used as a starting point for studies of tephrochronology, volcanology, geochemistry, studies of sediment transport and palaeoclimatology.

Vertically extensive and unstable magmatic systems: A unified view of igneous processes.

Volcanoes are an expression of their underlying magmatic systems. Over the past three decades, the classical focus on upper crustal magma chambers has expanded to consider magmatic processes throughout the crust. A transcrustal perspective must balance slow (plate tectonic) rates of melt generation and segregation in the lower crust with new evidence for rapid melt accumulation in the upper crust before many volcanic eruptions. Reconciling these observations is engendering active debate about the physical state, spatial distribution, and longevity of melt in the crust. Here we review evidence for transcrustal magmatic systems and highlight physical processes that might affect the growth and stability of melt-rich layers, focusing particularly on conditions that cause them to destabilize, ascend, and accumulate in voluminous but ephemeral shallow magma chambers.

Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises.

Eruptions at the Icelandic volcanoes of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grimsvötn (2011) produced plumes of ash posing hazards to air traffic over northern Europe. In imposing restrictions on air traffic, regulators needed to balance the dangers of accidents or aircraft damage against the cost and inconvenience to travelers and industry. Two surveys examined how members of the public viewed the necessity of the imposed restrictions and their trust in different agencies as estimators of the level of risk. Study 1 was conducted with 213 British citizens (112 males, 101 females), who completed questionnaires while waiting for flights at London City Airport during May 2012. Study 2 involved an online survey of 301 Icelandic citizens (172 males, 127 females, 2 undeclared gender) during April 2012. In both samples, there was general support for the air traffic restrictions, especially among those who gave higher estimates of the likelihood of an air accident or mishap having otherwise happened. However, in both countries, the (minority of) respondents who had personally experienced travel disruption were less convinced that these restrictions were all necessary. Scientists, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and (in Iceland) the Icelandic Department of Civil Protection were all highly trusted, and seen as erring on the side of caution in their risk estimates. Airlines were seen as more likely to underestimate any risk. We conclude that perceptions of the balance between risk and caution in judgments under uncertainty are influenced by one's own motives and those attributed to others.

Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change.

Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.

Collapses of two-dimensional granular columns.

The first detailed quantitative observations of the two-dimensional collapse of a granular column along a horizontal channel are presented for a variety of materials. Together with the complementary study for the axisymmetric situation, we conclude that for granular collapses the generally accepted approaches, that are highly dependent on frictional parameters, do not describe the main flow phenomena. The motion divides in two main flow regimes at a approximately 1.8, where the aspect ratio a = hi/di and hi and di are the initial height and width of the column. We describe the details of collapse by emphasizing the sequential occurrence of a main spreading followed by a final avalanching phase. For the low a regime, a < 1.8, we derive descriptions of the final geometry by direct physical arguments. For the large a regime, a > 1.8, we determine that nearly all details of the collapse, including the position of the flow front as a function of time, the emplacement time, the self-similar final profiles, and especially their maximum vertical and horizontal extension, are established during the spreading phase and can be expressed in terms of the initial geometrical parameters but are independent of basal and internal friction parameters.