Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.

Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition.

Climate change and grazing interact to alter flowering patterns in the Mongolian steppe.

Socio-economic changes threaten nomadic pastoralism across the world, changing traditional grazing patterns. Such land-use changes will co-occur with climate change, and while both are potentially important determinants of future ecosystem functioning, interactions between them remain poorly understood. We investigated the effects of grazing by large herbivores and climate manipulation using open-top chambers (OTCs) on flower number and flowering species richness in mountain steppe of northern Mongolia. In this region, sedentary pastoralism is replacing nomadic pastoralism, and temperature is predicted to increase. Grazing and OTCs interacted to affect forb flowering richness, which was reduced following grazing removal, and reduced by OTCs in grazed plots only. This interaction was directly linked to the soil moisture and temperature environments created by the experimental treatments: most species flowered when both soil moisture and temperature levels were high (i.e. in grazed plots without OTCs), while fewer species flowered when either temperature, or moisture, or both, were low. Removal of grazing increased the average number of graminoid flowers produced at peak flowering in Year 1, but otherwise grazing removal and OTCs did not affect community-level flower composition. Of four abundant graminoid species examined individually, three showed increased flower number with grazing removal, while one showed the reverse. Four abundant forb species showed no significant response to either treatment. Our results highlight how climate change effects on mountain steppe could be contingent on land-use, and that studies designed to understand ecosystem response to climate change should incorporate co-occurring drivers of change, such as altered grazing regimes.

Plant response to climate change varies with topography, interactions with neighbors, and ecotype.

Predicting the future of any given species represents an unprecedented challenge in light of the many environmental and biological factors that affect organismal performance and that also interact with drivers of global change. In a three-year experiment set in the Mongolian steppe, we examined the response of the common grass Festuca lenensis to manipulated temperature and water while controlling for topographic variation, plant-plant interactions, and ecotypic differentiation. Plant survival and growth responses to a warmer, drier climate varied within the landscape. Response to simulated increased precipitation occurred only in the absence of neighbors, demonstrating that plant-plant interactions can supersede the effects of climate change. F. lenensis also showed evidence of local adaptation in populations that were only 300 m apart. Individuals from the steep and dry upper slope showed a higher stress/drought tolerance, whereas those from the more productive lower slope showed a higher biomass production and a greater ability to cope with competition. Moreover, the response of this species to increased precipitation was ecotype specific, with water addition benefiting only the least stress-tolerant ecotype from the lower slope origin. This multifaceted approach illustrates the importance of placing climate change experiments within a realistic ecological and evolutionary framework. Existing sources of variation impacting plant performance may buffer or obscure climate change effects.

Vulnerability of the northern Mongolian steppe to climate change: insights from flower production and phenology.

The semiarid, northern Mongolian steppe, which still supports pastoral nomads who have used the steppe for millennia, has experienced an average 1.7 degrees C temperature rise over the past 40 years. Continuing climate change is likely to affect flowering phenology and flower numbers with potentially important consequences for plant community composition, ecosystem services, and herder livelihoods. Over the growing seasons of 2009 and 2010, we examined flowering responses to climate manipulation using open-top passive warming chambers (OTCs) at two locations on a south-facing slope: one on the moister, cooler lower slope and the other on the drier, warmer upper slope, where a watering treatment was added in a factorial design with warming. Canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) revealed that OTCs reduced flower production and delayed peak flowering in graminoids as a whole but only affected forbs on the upper slope, where peak flowering was also delayed. OTCs affected flowering phenology in seven of eight species, which were examined individually, either by altering the time of peak flowering and/or the onset and/or cessation of flowering, as revealed by survival analysis. In 2010, which was the drier year, OTCs reduced flower production in two grasses but increased production in an annual forb found only on the upper slope. The particular effects of OTCs on phenology, and whether they caused an extension or contraction of the flowering season, differed among species, and often depended on year, or slope, or watering treatment; however, a relatively strong pattern emerged for 2010 when four species showed a contraction of the flowering season in OTCs. Watering increased flower production in two species in 2010, but slope location more often affected flowering phenology than did watering. Our results show the importance of taking landscape-scale variation into account in climate change studies and also contrasted with those of several studies set in cold, but wetter systems, where warming often causes greater or accelerated flower production. In cold, water-limited systems like the Mongolian steppe, warming may reduce flower numbers or the length of the flowering season by adding to water stress more than it relieves cold stress.

Legumes mitigate ecological consequences of a topographic gradient in a northern Mongolian steppe.

Topography should create spatial variation in water and nutrients and play an especially important role in the ecology of water-limited systems. We use stable isotopes to discern how plants respond both to ecological gradients associated with elevation and to neighboring legumes on a south-facing slope in the semi-arid, historically grazed steppe of northern Mongolia. Out of three target species, Potentilla acaulis, Potentilla sericea, and Festuca lenensis, when >30 cm from a legume, all showed a decrease in leaf δ(15)N with increasing elevation. This, together with measures of soil δ(15)N, suggests greater N processing at the moister, more productive, lower elevation, and more N fixation at the upper elevation, where cover of legumes and lichens and plant-available nitrate were greater. Total soil N was greater at the lower elevation, but not lichen biomass or root colonization by AMF. Leaf δ(13)C values for P. acaulis and F. lenensis are consistent with increasing water stress with elevation; δ(13)C values indicated the greatest intrinsic water use efficiency for P. sericea, which is more abundant at the upper elevation. Nearby legumes (<10 cm) moderate the effect of elevation on leaf δ(15)N, confirming legumes' meaningful input of N, and affect leaf δ(13)C for two species, suggesting an influence on the efficiency of carbon fixation. Variation in leaf %N and %C as a function of elevation and proximity to a legume differs among species. Apparently, most N input is at upper elevations, pointing to the possible importance of grazers, in addition to hydrological processes, as transporters of N throughout this landscape.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal inoculum potential: a mechanism promoting positive diversity-invasibility relationships in mountain beech forests in New Zealand?

Mycorrhizal fungi are important symbionts for the majority of plant species, but their role in determining the susceptibility of habitat to plant invasion is poorly understood. Hieracium lepidulum is an arbuscular mycorrhizal herb, currently invading the understorey of ectomycorrhizal Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest in New Zealand. Mountain beech is solely ectomycorrhizal, and other plant species within the understorey occur sporadically. Hieracium has been shown to establish preferentially in microsites with higher plant species richness at a scale of less than 1 m(2) within mountain beech forest, and we tested the hypothesis that more diverse microsites (<1 m(2)) are associated with higher levels of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) inoculum. We found low levels of AMF inoculum across all microsites, and over a third of samples contained no inoculum at all. Higher vascular-plant species richness (but not biomass) was associated with higher AMF spore densities in field soil, and greater AMF colonization of H. lepidulum seedlings in a bioassay. Absence of AMF inoculum from much of the soil and the positive association of inoculum potential with species richness provide a potential mechanism for the establishment of a positive diversity-invasibility relationship in the mountain beech forest.

Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest.

We investigate the spread of an exotic herb, Hieracium lepidulum, into a New Zealand Nothofagus forest with the aim of understanding how stand-development of tree populations, propagule pressure and invader persistence, affect invasion across the landscape and within communities. Using data repeatedly collected over 35 years, from 250 locations, we parametrize continuous-time Markov chain models and use these models to examine future projections of the invasion under a range of hypothetical scenarios. We found that the probability of invasion into a stand was relatively high following canopy disturbance and that local abundance of Hieracium was promoted by minor disturbances. However, model predictions extrapolated 45 years into the future show that neither the rate of landscape-level invasion, nor local population growth of Hieracium, was affected much by changing the frequency of canopy disturbance events. Instead, invasion levels were strongly affected by the ability of Hieracium to persist in the understorey following forest canopy closure, and by propagule supply from streams, forest edges and plants already established within the stand. Our results show that disturbance frequency has surprisingly little influence on the long-term trajectory of invasion, while invader persistence strongly determines invasion patterns.