ABSTRACT
Variation in fruit production and pre-dispersal seed predation by Argyresthia conjugella was studied inâ£four populations of Sorbus aucuparia in northern Sweden.â£The number of infructescences, fruits per infructescence, consumed seeds and developed unattacked seeds per fruit were scored in marked trees from 1984 to 1990. The results showed that the number of fruits produced in each population determined the number of seed predators occurring in the host population, as the yearly number of seed predators was significantly and positively correlated with yearly number of fruits, in all but one population. The seed predators showed a delay in response to variation in number of fruits produced. This lag in response resulted in a large proportion of fruits being attacked and seeds consumed in a bad fruiting year that followed a good fruiting year, and vice versa. The proportion of fruits attacked and seeds consumed was largest in the population showing the greatest between-year variation in fruit production and lowest in the population showing the lowest between-year variation in fruit production. Furthermore, the individuals within the former population were synchronised, while they were not in the latter population. These results contradict one of the possible explanations of mast-seeding, where large synchronised between-year variation is supposed to reduce pre-dispersal seed predation. Instead, differences in attraction of the seed predator to differences in fruit crop size could explain the observed difference in seed predation between the two populations with opposite fruiting patterns. Within each population, irrespective of year, the proportion of fruits attacked and seeds consumed was independent of a tree's fruiting display. Therefore, trees with high fruit production, despite harbouring the largest number of seed predators, produced the largest number of developed seeds in absolute numbers, compared to trees that produced few fruits.
