Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and associated lockdown measures on attendances at emergency departments in English hospitals: A retrospective database study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and associated lockdown measures have challenged healthcare. We examine how attendances to ED in England were impacted. METHODS: Interrupted time series regression (January 2019 to June 2020) of data from EDs in 41 English NHS Trusts was used to estimate the initial decrease in attendances and the rate of increase following an interruption from 11 March - 7 April 2020, which included the 23 March lockdown in England. FINDINGS: The SARS-CoV-2 interruption led to an initial 51.1% reduction (95% CI 46.3-55.9%) in ED attendances followed by a linear increase in attendances of 3.0% per week (95% CI 2.5-3.5%).  Significantly larger initial reductions were seen in those aged 0-19 years (69.1%), Indian (64.9%), Pakistani (71.8%), Bangladeshi (75.3%), African (63.5%) and Chinese people (74.5%), self-conveying attendees (60.3%) and those presenting with contusions or abrasions (66.9%), muscle and tendon injuries (65.6%), and those with a diagnosis that was not classifiable (72.7%).  Significantly smaller initial reductions were seen in those aged 65-74 years (42.6%), 75+ years (40.1%), those conveyed by ambulance (31.9%), and those presenting with the following conditions: central nervous system (44.9%), haematological (44.0%), cardiac (43.7%), gastrointestinal (43.4%), gynaecological (43.2%), psychiatric (40.4%), poisoning (39.7%), cerebro-vascular (39.0%), endocrinological (36.1%), other vascular (34.6%), and maxillo-facial (19.7%). No significant differences in the initial reduction of activity were seen in subgroups defined by sex, deprivation, urbanicity or acuity. INTERPRETATION: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and lockdown substantially reduced ED activity. The reduction varied by age groups, ethnicity, arrival mode and diagnostic group but not by sex, deprivation, urbanicity or acuity. FUNDING: No funding to declare.

An evidence synthesis of the international knowledge base for new care models to inform and mobilise knowledge for multispecialty community providers (MCPs).

BACKGROUND: NHS England's Five Year Forward View (NHS England, Five Year Forward View, 2014) formally introduced a strategy for new models of care driven by simultaneous pressures to contain costs, improve care and deliver services closer to home through integrated models. This synthesis focuses on a multispecialty community provider (MCP) model. This new model of care seeks to overcome the limitations in current models of care, often based around single condition-focused pathways, in contrast to patient-focused delivery (Royal College of General Practitioners, The 2022 GP: compendium of evidence, 2012) which offers greater continuity of care in recognition of complex needs and multimorbidity. METHODS: The synthesis, an innovative combination of best fit framework synthesis and realist synthesis, will develop a "blueprint" which articulates how and why MCP models work, to inform design of future iterations of the MCP model. A systematic search will be conducted to identify research and practice-derived evidence to achieve a balance that captures the historical legacy of MCP models but focuses on contemporary evidence. Sources will include bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, PreMEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, HMIC and Cochrane Library; and grey literature sources. The Best Fit synthesis methodology will be combined with a synthesis following realist principles which are particularly suited to exploring what works, when, for whom and in what circumstances. DISCUSSION: The aim of this synthesis is to provide decision makers in health and social care with a practical evidence base relating to the multispecialty community provider (MCP) model of care. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016039552 .

Clinical contributions to addressing the social determinants of health.

The drive to address social determinants of health is gaining momentum. Appreciating that health outcomes are only partly affected by healthcare, clinicians and clinical communities can play a significant role in this crusade by action at local, regional, national and global levels. A concerted and systematic focus on integrating and industrialising upstream interventions at every healthcare encounter is essential to prevent future illness, thus enabling a paradigm shift in the healthcare service from being one of illness management to health preservation. The evidence base demonstrates the cost efficacy of upstream interventions. The challenge is how this evidence is utilised to implement these interventions in everyday healthcare. Today, with a global economic crisis and challenged public sector funding, the need to address prevention has never been more pressing. Clinical engagement at all levels, from the front line to the boardroom is vital. Clinicians must address access, communication, strategy and commissioning to fulfil a professional responsibility to become and remain the corporate memory of a health service focused on preventing illness while simultaneously delivering cost-effective healthcare.