Changes in Sales of Vaping Products and Cigarettes Associated With the New York State Flavored Vaping Product Sales Restriction.

INTRODUCTION: New York (NY) implemented a statewide restriction on the retail sale of flavored vaping products to reduce availability of vaping products having youth-appealing flavors in 2020. We assessed the intended effects of the NY law on sales of flavored vaping products and explored whether policy implementation had unintended effects on consumer behavior by evaluating policy-associated changes in sales of combusted cigarettes, which could serve as more harmful substitute products for NY consumers of flavored vaping products. AIMS AND METHODS: We analyzed custom product-level weekly retail tobacco sales scanner data for NY and a comparison state (California [CA]) for convenience stores and other outlets from June 2018 through June 2021. We categorized flavor descriptors for vaping products as flavored or as tobacco or unflavored and categorized cigarettes as menthol or non-menthol. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the effect of the sales restriction on unit sales of flavored and unflavored vaping products and menthol and non-menthol cigarettes in NY compared with CA. RESULTS: Following NY policy implementation, flavored and total vaping product sales decreased in NY relative to CA. Unflavored vaping product sales increased in NY, while menthol cigarette sales did not change significantly relative to CA sales. CONCLUSIONS: The NY flavored vaping product policy was associated with fewer sales of flavored and total vaping products. The increase in sales of unflavored vaping products did not suggest complete substitution, and sales data suggest that consumers did not turn to cigarettes after flavored vaping products became unavailable. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides evidence that NY's flavored vaping product policy is associated with reduced flavored vaping product access and sales. Our analyses of potential unintended consequences indicate that some consumers switched from flavored to unflavored vaping products, but that cigarette sales did not change concurrent with the policy which means that decreased availability of flavored vaping products did not result in vapers switching to cigarettes. NY's policy had its intended effect with limited unintended consequences.

Changes in Availability of ENDS: 2019-2020, U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Events during 2019 and 2020, such as the outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, product use‒associated lung injury; manufacturer product withdrawals; federal regulations; and coronavirus disease 2019, potentially affected the retail availability of ENDS in the U.S. Measuring changes in ENDS availability informs the understanding of the ENDS marketplace and contextualizes sales trends. METHODS: Joinpoint regression was used to estimate slope changes in the number of available ENDS in 2019 and 2020 and considered correspondence with tobacco marketplace events. Availability, the weekly number of unique universal product codes with nonzero sales, was derived from NielsenIQ scanner data. U.S. ENDS availability was modeled overall and by subproduct and flavor category within subproduct: mint, menthol, tobacco flavored, and undetermined. RESULTS: ENDS availability increased by 66% from January 2019 to December 2020. Availability decreased by 43% among prefilled cartridges and increased by 511% among disposables, both led by flavored varieties. During January 2020-February 2020, prefilled cartridge availability decreased by 23.71 universal product codes per week. During July 2020-August 2020, disposable availability increased by 27.90 universal product codes per week, led by flavored products. CONCLUSIONS: ENDS availability increased during 2019 through 2020, led by a rise in flavored disposables. Multiple slope changes in ENDS availability occurred, many coinciding with tobacco marketplace events. The slope of ENDS explicitly prioritized for federal enforcement (i.e., flavored prefilled cartridges) notably decreased in early 2020 and, soon thereafter, the slope of ENDS not explicitly prioritized for enforcement (e.g., flavored disposables) notably increased, suggesting an association with U.S. Food and Drug Administration's prioritized enforcement guidance.

Expanding local sales restrictions on flavoured tobacco products to include menthol: retail sales changes in two Minnesota cities.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, expanded existing local sales restrictions on flavoured (non-menthol/mint/wintergreen) tobacco products ('flavour policies') to include menthol/mint/wintergreen-flavoured tobacco products ('menthol policies'). All policies included exemptions for certain store types. METHODS: We obtained weekly retail tobacco product sales for 2015 through 2019 from NielsenIQ for convenience stores and other outlets in the policy jurisdictions and two comparison areas (rest of the state of Minnesota and total USA). We standardised unit sales across product categories and used NielsenIQ-provided descriptors to classify products as menthol (including mint/wintergreen) or flavoured (non-menthol/non-tobacco). Using single group interrupted time series models, we analysed unit sales by product category and by flavour separately for each geography to assess associations between menthol policy implementation and trends in tobacco product unit sales. RESULTS: Following menthol policy implementation, unit sales of menthol cigarettes and menthol smokeless tobacco decreased in both cities, with smaller decreases in comparison areas. Flavoured cigar sales-which decreased following the flavour policies-further decreased after the menthol policies, while sales of menthol electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) increased in both cities and sales of flavoured ENDS increased in St. Paul. CONCLUSION: Expanding flavour policies to include menthol/mint/wintergreen was associated with significant decreases in unit sales of most menthol products and in total unit sales by tobacco product category. Increases in menthol and flavoured ENDS sales in these cities may be associated with legal sales by exempted retailers and/or illicit sales by non-compliant retailers, highlighting opportunities for retailer education and enforcement.

Predictive validity of the original and expanded susceptibility scales for smokeless tobacco.

BACKGROUND: This study seeks to validate the original and expanded susceptibility scales for smokeless tobacco (SLT) use among a longitudinal sample of rural male youth. We also compare the predictive validity of both scales for SLT. METHODS: Data are from a five-wave longitudinal sample of rural males in the Unites States aged 11-16 at baseline. Data were collected from January 2016 to December 2018. We used a series of logistic regressions to identify whether individual demographic variables, the original (use SLT soon, in next year, if friend offers), or the expanded (original plus curiosity) susceptibility scales predicted experimentation with SLT by 2018. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of both scales were also calculated to determine reliability. All analyses were limited to 2016 never SLT users. RESULTS: Both susceptibility scales were significant predictors of SLT initiation by follow-up. Susceptible youth had three times the odds of SLT initiation by follow-up compared to youth who were non-susceptible. Both scales have high specificity, identifying a large proportion of never users as non-susceptible. Sensitivity for the original scale was 37.0% and increased to 44.2% for the expanded scale. The PPV was approximately 20% for both the original and expanded scales. CONCLUSIONS: The SLT susceptibility scales are valid for predicting future SLT initiation; however, there remains room for improvement as the sensitivity of both scales is relatively low compared to the smoking scale. Future research should examine additional methods to identify youth at risk of SLT initiation.