ABSTRACT
We explore the role of natural characteristics in determining the worldwide spatial distribution of economic activity, as proxied by lights at night, observed across 240,000 grid cells. A parsimonious set of 24 physical geography attributes explains 47% of worldwide variation and 35% of within-country variation in lights. We divide geographic characteristics into two groups, those primarily important for agriculture and those primarily important for trade, and confront a puzzle. In examining within-country variation in lights, among countries that developed early, agricultural variables incrementally explain over 6 times as much variation in lights as do trade variables, while among late developing countries the ratio is only about 1.5, even though the latter group is far more dependent on agriculture. Correspondingly, the marginal effects of agricultural variables as a group on lights are larger in absolute value, and those for trade smaller, for early developers than for late developers. We show that this apparent puzzle is explained by persistence and the differential timing of technological shocks in the two sets of countries. For early developers, structural transformation due to rising agricultural productivity began when transport costs were still high, so cities were localized in agricultural regions. When transport costs fell, these agglomerations persisted. In late-developing countries, transport costs fell before structural transformation. To exploit urban scale economies, manufacturing agglomerated in relatively few, often coastal, locations. Consistent with this explanation, countries that developed earlier are more spatially equal in their distribution of education and economic activity than late developers.
ABSTRACT
Alcohol- and drug-related deaths remain a major problem in the UK. Although the pathological findings of cardio-, hepato- and splenomegaly are frequently and empirically associated with chronic alcohol and drug use, there is limited published evidence available. This study hypothesises that organomegaly is associated with chronic substance use, and may represent a prognostic indicator. The weights of hearts, livers and spleens from 280 chronic alcoholics (CA) and 33 chronic drug users (CD) were compared to those of 291 controls. Using a forensic pathology database, CA and CD subjects were identified from 4708 autopsies (January 2003-June 2006) by identifying adult cases with no known coexistent diseases. The controls were non-substance users and previously healthy adults who died of traumatic injuries. Alcohol misuse was associated with cardiomegaly (27% vs. 19%, male CA vs. control) and hepatomegaly (38% vs. 15%). Majority of cases had only one organ affected. In CA, occurrence of hepatomegaly was associated with death at a younger age (female mean age 47+/-9.4, p<0.009, male mean age 50+/-11.6, p<0.007). This study demonstrated an association between cardiomegaly and hepatomegaly with chronic alcohol misuse and identifies the potential role of hepatomegaly as a determinant of poorer outcome in chronic alcohol misusers.
