ABSTRACT
We present a novel workflow for forecasting production in unconventional reservoirs using reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning workflow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in unconventionals, namely the lack of data (i.e., the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and the significant computational expense of high-fidelity modeling. We do this by applying the machine-learning paradigm of transfer learning, where we combine fast, but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-fidelity models. We use the Patzek model (Proc Natl Acad Sci 11:19731-19736, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1313380110 , 2013) as the reduced-order model to generate synthetic production data and supplement this data with synthetic production data obtained from high-fidelity discrete fracture network simulations of the site of interest. Our results demonstrate that training with low-fidelity models is not sufficient for accurate forecasting, but transfer learning is able to augment the knowledge and perform well once trained with the small set of results from the high-fidelity model. Such a physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) workflow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir.
ABSTRACT
We describe a method to simulate transient fluid flows in fractured media using an approach based on graph theory. Our approach builds on past work where the graph-based approach was successfully used to simulate steady-state fluid flows in fractured media. We find a mean computational speedup of the order of 1400 from an ensemble of a 100 discrete fracture networks in contrast to the O(10^{4}) speedup that was obtained for steady-state flows earlier. However, the transient flows considered here involve an additional degree of complexity that was not present in the steady-state flows considered previously with a graph-based approach, that of time marching and solution of the flow equations within a time-stepping scheme. We verify our method with an analytical test case and demonstrate its use on a practical problem related to fluid flows in hydraulically fractured reservoirs. By enabling the study of transient flows, we create an opportunity for a wide set of possibilities where a steady-state approximation is not sufficient, such as the example motivated by hydraulic fracturing that we present here. This work validates the concept that graphs are able to reliably capture the topological properties of the fracture network and serve as effective surrogates in an uncertainty-quantification framework.
