Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges.

This paper provides an introduction to the special issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London of papers from the 2022 Royal Society meeting on 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. It provides the background and rationale for the meeting, briefly summarizes prior progress on observing the Atlantic overturning circulation and draws out the new challenges that papers presented at the meeting raise, so pointing the way forward for future research. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Interannual monsoon wind variability as a key driver of East African small pelagic fisheries.

Small pelagic fisheries provide food security, livelihood support and economic stability for East African coastal communities-a region of least developed countries. Using remotely- sensed and field observations together with modelling, we address the biophysical drivers of this important resource. We show that annual variations of fisheries yield parallel those of chlorophyll-a (an index of phytoplankton biomass). While enhanced phytoplankton biomass during the Northeast monsoon is triggered by wind-driven upwelling, during the Southeast monsoon, it is driven by two current induced mechanisms: coastal "dynamic uplift" upwelling; and westward advection of nutrients. This biological response to the Southeast monsoon is greater than that to the Northeast monsoon. For years unaffected by strong El-Niño/La-Niña events, the Southeast monsoon wind strength over the south tropical Indian Ocean is the main driver of year-to-year variability. This has important implications for the predictability of fisheries yield, its response to climate change, policy and resource management.

Asymmetric transfer of CO2 across a broken sea surface.

Most estimates of the climatically-important transfer of atmospheric gases into, and out of, the ocean assume that the ocean surface is unbroken by breaking waves. However the trapping of bubbles of atmospheric gases in the ocean by breaking waves introduces an asymmetry in this flux. This asymmetry occurs as a bias towards injecting gas into the ocean where it dissolves, and against the evasion/exsolution of previously-dissolved gas coming out of solution from the oceans and eventually reaching the atmosphere. Here we use at-sea measurements and modelling of the bubble clouds beneath the ocean surface to show that the numbers of large bubbles found metres below the sea surface in high winds are sufficient to drive a large and asymmetric flux of carbon dioxide. Our results imply a much larger asymmetry for carbon dioxide than previously proposed. This asymmetry contradicts an assumption inherent in most existing estimates of ocean-atmosphere gas transfer. The geochemical and climate implications include an enhanced invasion of carbon dioxide into the stormy temperate and polar seas.

Persistence of cluster synchronization under the influence of advection.

We present a study on the emergence of spatial structure in plankton dynamics under the influence of stirring and mixing. A distribution of plankton is represented as a lattice of nonidentical, interacting, oscillatory plankton populations. Each population evolves according to (i) the internal biological dynamics represented by an NPZ model with population-specific phytoplankton growth rate, (ii) sub-grid-cell stirring and mixing parameterized by a nearest-neighbor coupling, and (iii) explicit advection resulting from a constant horizontal shear. Using the methods of synchronization theory, the emergent spatial structure of the simulation is investigated as a function of the coupling strength and rate of advection. Previous work using similar methods has neglected the effects of explicit stirring (i.e., at scales larger than the grid cell), leaving as an open question the relevance of the work to real marine systems. Here, we show that persistent spatial structure emerges for a range of coupling strengths for all realistic levels of surface ocean shear. Spatially, this corresponds to the formation of temporally evolving clusters of local synchronization. Increasing shear alters the spatial characteristics of this clustering by stretching and narrowing patches of synchronized dynamics. These patches are not stretched into stripes of synchronized abundance aligned with the flow, as may be expected, but instead lie at an angle to the flow. This study shows that advection does not diminish the relevance of conclusions from previous studies of spatial structure in plankton simulations. In fact, the inclusion of advection adds characteristic filamental structure, as observed in real-world plankton distributions. The results also show that the ability of coupled oscillators to synchronize depends strongly on the spatial arrangement of oscillator natural frequencies; under the influence of advection, therefore, the impact of the coupling strength on the emergent spatial structure of a biophysical simulation is time-dependent.

Spatially implicit plankton population models: Transient spatial variability.

Ocean plankton models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the behaviour of planktonic ecosystems. However, when the regions represented by the model grid cells are not well mixed, the population dynamics of grid cell averages may differ from those of smaller scales (such as the laboratory scale). Here, the 'mean field approximation' fails due to 'biological Reynolds fluxes' arising from nonlinearity in the fine-scale biological interactions and unresolved spatial variability. We investigate the domain-scale behaviour of two-component, 2D reaction-diffusion plankton models producing transient dynamics, with spatial variability resulting only from the initial conditions. Failure of the mean field approximation can be quite significant for sub grid-scale mixing rates applicable to practical ocean models. To improve the approximation of domain-scale dynamics, we investigate implicit spatial resolution methods such as spatial moment closure. For weak and moderate strengths of biological nonlinearity, spatial moment closure models generally yield significant improvements on the mean field approximation, especially at low mixing rates. However, they are less accurate given weaker transience and stronger nonlinearity. In the latter case, an alternative 'two-spike' approximation is accurate at low mixing rates. We argue that, after suitable extension, these methods may be useful for understanding and skillfully predicting the large-scale behaviour of marine ecosystems.

Assimilating satellite ocean-colour observations into oceanic ecosystem models.

The effectiveness of ocean-colour data assimilation in providing robust biological-parameter estimates for basin-scale ecosystem models is investigated for a phytoplankton-zooplankton-nutrient model using North Atlantic satellite chlorophyll data. The model is forced by annual cycles of mixed-layer depth, day length, photosynthetically available radiation and a temperature-dependent phytoplankton maximum growth rate. Although ocean-colour data are potentially limited in their ability to constrain model parameters because they provide information about the phytoplankton component only, this limitation is offset by the volume of data available covering the range of possible biogeochemical responses to similar and widely varying physical conditions. The results are improved by applying wintertime nutrient estimates based on in situ observations as an additional constraint. Repeatability of parameter estimates obtained from independent samples is examined. Results obtained using regional and basin-wide sampling strategies for obtaining the optimization dataset are compared and the geographic applicability of the calibrated models is assessed.

Satellite observations of the Agulhas Current system.

The Agulhas Current system is a complex interplay of currents and eddies with the bathymetry. Components such as the East Madagascar Retroflection and the Agulhas Return Current evolve significantly over a month, and they are thus not adequately resolved by infrequent research-ship cruises. This paper contrasts the abilities of three different spaceborne sensors for monitoring these complex regimes. A key parameter is sea-surface temperature, measured by both infrared and microwave radiometers. Ocean colour observations of chlorophyll can also be used to distinguish between water masses.