Waves in time, but not in space - an analysis of pandemic severity of COVID-19 in Germany.

While pandemic waves are often studied on the national scale, they typically are not distributed evenly within countries. This study presents a novel approach to analyzing the spatial-temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. By using a composite indicator of pandemic severity and subdividing the pandemic into fifteen phases, we were able to identify similar trajectories of pandemic severity among all German counties through hierarchical clustering. Our results show that the hotspots and cold spots of the first four waves were relatively stationary in space. This highlights the importance of examining pandemic waves on a regional scale to gain a more comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. By combining spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering of time series, we were able to identify important patterns of regional anomalies, which can help target more effective public health interventions on a regional scale.

Infectious Diseases as Socio-Spatial Processes: The COVID-19 Outbreak In Germany.

This paper argues that outbreaks of infectious diseases should be understood as socio-spatial processes with complex geographies. Considering the different dimensions of space through which an outbreak unfolds, facilitates analysing spatial diffusion of infectious disease in contemporary societies. We attempt to highlight four relevant dimensions of space by applying the TPSN framework to the case of the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Germany. By identifying key processes of disease diffusion in space, we can explain the spatial patterns of the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, which did not feature the well-known patterns of spatially contagious as in or hierarchical diffusion. In contrast, we find superspreading events and especially relocation diffusion based on existing networks, on which the pathogen travelled like a blind passenger, to be more relevant. For us, these findings prove the value of combining relational thinking with geographic analysis for understanding epidemic outbreaks in contemporary societies.