Hydroclimatic and cultural instability in northeastern North America during the last millennium.

Long-term, large-scale perspectives are necessary for understanding climate variability and its effects on ecosystems and cultures. Tree ring records of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) have documented major hydroclimatic variability during the last millennium in the American West, but fewer continuous, high-resolution hydroclimate records of the MCA-LIA period are available for eastern North America, particularly during the transition from the MCA to the LIA (ca. A.D. 1250-1400). Diatoms (micro-algae with silica cell walls) in sediment cores from three Adirondack (NY, USA) lakes and a hiatus in a wetland peat deposit in the Adirondack uplands provide novel insights into the late Holocene hydroclimate history of the Northeast. These records demonstrate that two of the region's most extreme decadal-scale droughts of the last millennium occurred ca. A.D. 1260-1330 and ca. A.D. 1360-1390 during a dry-wet-dry (DWD) oscillation in the Adirondacks that contributed to forest fires and desiccation of wetlands in New York and Maine. The bimodal drying was probably related to more extreme droughts farther west and coincided with major events in Iroquoian and Abenaki cultural history. Although the causes of the DWD oscillation in the Adirondacks remain uncertain, changing sea-surface temperatures and solar variability are likely to have played a role.

Arrival order and release from competition does not explain why haplochromine cichlids radiated in Lake Victoria.

The frequent occurrence of adaptive radiations on oceanic islands and in lakes is often attributed to ecological opportunity resulting from release from competition where arrival order among lineages predicts which lineage radiates. This priority effect occurs when the lineage that arrives first expands its niche breadth and diversifies into a set of ecological specialists with associated monopolization of the resources. Later-arriving species do not experience ecological opportunity and do not radiate. While theoretical support and evidence from microbial experiments for priority effects are strong, empirical evidence in nature is difficult to obtain. Lake Victoria (LV) is home to an exceptional adaptive radiation of haplochromine cichlid fishes, where 20 trophic guilds and several hundred species emerged in just 15 000 years, the age of the modern lake that was preceded by a complete desiccation lasting several thousand years. However, while about 50 other lineages of teleost fish also have established populations in the lake, none of them has produced more than two species and most of them did not speciate at all. Here, we test if the ancestors of the haplochromine radiation indeed arrived prior to the most competent potential competitors, 'tilapias' and cyprinids, both of which have made rapid radiations in other African lakes. We assess LV sediment core intervals from just before the desiccation and just after refilling for the presence of fossil fish teeth. We show that all three lineages were present when modern LV began to fill with water. We conclude that the haplochromines' extraordinary radiation unfolded in the presence of potentially competing lineages and cannot be attributed to a simple priority effect.

Climate variability and cultural eutrophication at Walden Pond (Massachusetts, USA) during the last 1800 years.

Recent shifts in the ecological condition of Walden Pond, MA, are of potentially wide interest due to the lake's importance as a cultural, historical, and recreational resource in addition to its scientific value as an indicator of local and global environmental change. Algal microfossils in six sediment cores document changes in hydroclimate and trophic status of the lake during the last 1800 years and extend two previous sediment core records of shorter length. Low percentages of planktonic diatoms in the longest cores (WAL-3, WAL-15) indicate shallowing and/or greater water clarity associated with a relatively arid interval during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, ca. A.D. 1150-1300, Cultural eutrophication of the lake since the A.D. 1920s caused diatoms in the genera Asterionella and Synedra to increase in relative abundance at the expense of Cyclotella, Discostella, and the chrysophyte alga Mallomonas allorgei. Percentages of Asterionella and Synedra have remained fairly stable since A.D. 2000 when a previous sediment core study was conducted, but scaled chrysophytes have become more numerous. These findings suggest that, although mitigation efforts have curtailed anthropogenic nutrient inputs to Walden Pond, the lake has not returned to the pre-impact condition described by Henry David Thoreau and may become increasingly vulnerable to further changes in water quality in a warmer and possibly wetter future.

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to fully characterize such changes and paleo-sediment archives of Holocene TC activity are temporally and geographically sparse. Thus, it is of interest to apply physical modeling to understanding TC variability under different climate conditions. Here we investigate global TC activity during a warm climate state (mid-Holocene, 6,000 yBP) characterized by increased boreal summer insolation, a vegetated Sahara, and reduced dust emissions. We analyze a set of sensitivity experiments in which not only solar insolation changes are varied but also vegetation and dust concentrations. Our results show that the greening of the Sahara and reduced dust loadings lead to more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development compared with the orbital forcing alone. In particular, the strengthening of the West African Monsoon induced by the Sahara greening triggers a change in atmospheric circulation that affects the entire tropics. Furthermore, whereas previous studies suggest lower TC activity despite stronger summer insolation and warmer sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, accounting for the Sahara greening and reduced dust concentrations leads instead to an increase of TC activity in both hemispheres, particularly over the Caribbean basin and East Coast of North America. Our study highlights the importance of regional changes in land cover and dust concentrations in affecting the potential intensity and genesis of past TCs and suggests that both factors may have appreciable influence on TC activity in a future warmer climate.

Of paleo-genes and Perch: what if an "alien" is actually a native?

Documenting whether a biotic taxon is native or alien to an ecosystem has theoretical value for ecological and evolutionary studies, and has practical value because it can potentially identify a taxon as a desirable component of an ecosystem or target it for removal. In some cases, however, such background information is inadequate or unavailable. Here we use paleo-DNA to re-evaluate the historical status of yellow perch in the 6 million acre Adirondack State Park of northern New York. Yellow perch DNA in a 2200-year sediment record reveals a long-term native status for these supposedly alien fish and challenges assumptions that they necessarily exclude native trout from upland lakes. Similar approaches could be applied to other species with uncertain historical distributions and could help to identify unrecognized pockets of biodiversity.

Catastrophic drought in the Afro-Asian monsoon region during Heinrich event 1.

Between 15,000 and 18,000 years ago, large amounts of ice and meltwater entered the North Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 1. This caused substantial regional cooling, but major climatic impacts also occurred in the tropics. Here, we demonstrate that the height of this stadial, about 16,000 to 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1), coincided with one of the most extreme and widespread megadroughts of the past 50,000 years or more in the Afro-Asian monsoon region, with potentially serious consequences for Paleolithic cultures. Late Quaternary tropical drying commonly is attributed to southward drift of the intertropical convergence zone, but the broad geographic range of the Heinrich event 1 megadrought suggests that severe, systemic weakening of Afro-Asian rainfall systems also occurred, probably in response to sea surface cooling.