Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related traits in various studies. This suggests that compromised immunity, rather than specific microbes, may play a role in AD by increasing an individual's vulnerability to various infections, which could contribute to neurodegeneration. If true, then vaccines that have heterologous effects on immunity, extending beyond protection against the targeted disease, may hold a potential for AD prevention. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of common adult infections (herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses), and vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risks of AD and other dementias in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia and mycoses, diagnosed between ages 65 and 75, were all associated with significantly increased risk of AD later in life, by 16 %-42 %. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines administered between ages 65-75 were both associated with a significantly lower risk of AD, by 15 %-21 %. These effects became less pronounced when AD was combined with other dementias. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that both the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and the live attenuated zoster vaccine can offer significant protection against AD. It remains to be determined if non-live shingles vaccine has a similar beneficial effect on AD. This study also found significant associations of various infections with the risk of AD, but not with the risks of other dementias. This indicates that vulnerability to infections may play a more significant role in AD than in other types of dementia, which warrants further investigation.

Patterns of Aging Changes in Bodyweight May Predict Alzheimer's Disease.

Relationships between patterns of aging-changes in bodyweight and AD are not fully understood. We compared mean age-trajectories of weight between those who did and did not develop late-onset-AD, and evaluated impact of age at maximum weight (AgeMax), and slope of decline in weight, on AD risk. Women with late-onset-AD had lower weight three or more decades before AD onset, and ∼10 years younger AgeMax, compared to AD-free women. APOE4 carriers had younger AgeMax and steeper slope. Older AgeMax and flatter slope predicted lower AD risk. Premature decline in weight could be a sign of accelerated physical aging contributing to AD.

Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a major role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been linked to Alzheimer's disease (AD) indicating a possibility that the culprit may be compromised immunity rather than particular microbe. If true, then vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity might be protective against AD. METHODS: We estimated associations of common adult infections, including herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses, as well as vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risk of AD in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study. RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia, and mycoses diagnosed between ages 65-75, were all associated with higher risk of AD later in life, by 16%-42%. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines received between ages 65-75 both lowered the risk of AD, by 15%-21%. DISCUSSION: Our results support the idea that the connection between AD and infections involves compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen. We discuss mechanisms by which the declining immune surveillance may promote AD, and the role of biological aging in it. Repurposing of vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity could be a reasonable approach to AD prevention. Pneumococcal and zoster vaccines are promising candidates for such repurposing.

Interactions between genes involved in physiological dysregulation and axon guidance: role in Alzheimer's disease.

Dysregulation of physiological processes may contribute to Alzheimer's disease (AD) development. We previously found that an increase in the level of physiological dysregulation (PD) in the aging body is associated with declining resilience and robustness to major diseases. Also, our genome-wide association study found that genes associated with the age-related increase in PD frequently represented pathways implicated in axon guidance and synaptic function, which in turn were linked to AD and related traits (e.g., amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration) in the literature. Here, we tested the hypothesis that genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function may jointly influence onset of AD. We assessed the impact of interactions between SNPs in such genes on AD onset in the Long Life Family Study and sought to replicate the findings in the Health and Retirement Study. We found significant interactions between SNPs in the UNC5C and CNTN6, and PLXNA4 and EPHB2 genes that influenced AD onset in both datasets. Associations with individual SNPs were not statistically significant. Our findings, thus, support a major role of genetic interactions in the heterogeneity of AD and suggest the joint contribution of genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function (essential for the maintenance of complex neural networks) to AD development.

Validation of a Multivariate Prediction Model of the Clinical Progression of Alzheimer's Disease in a Community-Dwelling Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The major aims of the three Predictors Studies have been to further our understanding of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression sufficiently to predict the length of time from disease onset to major disease outcomes in individual patients with AD. OBJECTIVES: To validate a longitudinal Grade of Membership (L-GoM) prediction algorithm developed using clinic-based, mainly white patients from the Predictors 2 Study in a statistically representative community-based sample of Hispanic (N = 211) and non-Hispanic (N = 62) older adults (with 60 males and 213 females) from the Predictors 3 Study and extend the algorithm to mild cognitive impairment (MCI). METHODS: The L-GoM model was applied to data collected at the initial Predictors 3 visit for 150 subjects with AD and 123 with MCI. Participants were followed annually for up to seven years. Observed rates of survival and need for full-time care (FTC) were compared to those predicted by the algorithm. RESULTS: Initial MCI/AD severity in Predictors 3 was substantially higher than among clinic-based AD patients enrolled at the specialized Alzheimer's centers in Predictors 2. The observed survival and need for FTC followed the L-GoM model trajectories in individuals with MCI or AD, except for N = 32 subjects who were initially diagnosed with AD but reverted to a non-AD diagnosis on follow-up. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that the L-GoM model is applicable to community-dwelling, multiethnic older adults with AD. They extend the use of the model to the prediction of outcomes for MCI. They also justify release of our L-GoM calculator at this time.

Exogenous exposures shape genetic predisposition to lipids, Alzheimer's, and coronary heart disease in the MLXIPL gene locus.

Associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the MLXIPL lipid gene with Alzheimer's (AD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) and potentially causal mediation effects of their risk factors, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides (TG), were examined in two samples of European ancestry from the US (22,712 individuals 587/2,608 AD/CHD cases) and the UK Biobank (UKB) (232,341 individuals; 809/15,269 AD/CHD cases). Our results suggest that these associations can be regulated by several biological mechanisms and shaped by exogenous exposures. Two patterns of associations (represented by rs17145750 and rs6967028) were identified. Minor alleles of rs17145750 and rs6967028 demonstrated primary (secondary) association with high TG (lower HDL-C) and high HDL-C (lower TG) levels, respectively. The primary association explained ~50% of the secondary one suggesting partly independent mechanisms of TG and HDL-C regulation. The magnitude of the association of rs17145750 with HDL-C was significantly higher in the US vs. UKB sample and likely related to differences in exogenous exposures in the two countries. rs17145750 demonstrated a significant detrimental indirect effect through TG on AD risk in the UKB only (ßIE = 0.015, pIE = 1.9 × 10-3), which suggests protective effects of high TG levels against AD, likely shaped by exogenous exposures. Also, rs17145750 demonstrated significant protective indirect effects through TG and HDL-C in the associations with CHD in both samples. In contrast, rs6967028 demonstrated an adverse mediation effect through HDL-C on CHD risk in the US sample only (ßIE = 0.019, pIE = 8.6 × 10-4). This trade-off suggests different roles of triglyceride mediated mechanisms in the pathogenesis of AD and CHD.

APOE ɛ4 allele and TOMM40-APOC1 variants jointly contribute to survival to older ages.

Age-related diseases characteristic of post-reproductive life, aging, and life span are the examples of polygenic non-Mendelian traits with intricate genetic architectures. Polygenicity of these traits implies that multiple variants can impact their risks independently or jointly as combinations of specific variants. Here, we examined chances to live to older ages, 85 years and older, for carriers of compound genotypes comprised of combinations of genotypes of rs429358 (APOE ɛ4 encoding polymorphism), rs2075650 (TOMM40), and rs12721046 (APOC1) polymorphisms using data from four human studies. The choice of these polymorphisms was motivated by our prior results showing that the ɛ4 carriers having minor alleles of the other two polymorphisms were at exceptionally high risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD), compared with non-carriers of the minor alleles. Consistent with our prior findings for AD, we show here that the adverse effect of the ɛ4 allele on survival to older ages is significantly higher in carriers of minor alleles of rs2075650 and/or rs12721046 polymorphisms compared with their non-carriers. The exclusion of AD cases made this effect stronger. Our results provide compelling evidence that AD does not mediate the associations of the same compound genotypes with chances to survive until older ages, indicating the existence of genetically heterogeneous mechanisms. The survival chances can be mainly associated with lipid- and immunity-related mechanisms, whereas the AD risk, can be driven by the AD-biomarker-related mechanism, among others. Targeting heterogeneous polygenic profiles of individuals at high risks of complex traits is promising for the translation of genetic discoveries to health care.

Validation and demonstration of a new comprehensive model of Alzheimer's disease progression.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD) for individual patients is important for numerous clinical applications. Ideally, prognostic models should provide information about a range of clinical features across the entire disease process. Previously, we published a new comprehensive longitudinal model of AD progression with inputs/outputs covering 11 interconnected clinical measurement domains. METHODS: Here, we (1) validate the model on an independent cohort; and (2) demonstrate the model's utility in clinical applications by projecting changes in 6 of the 11 domains. RESULTS: Survival and prevalence curves for two representative outcomes-mortality and dependency-generated by the model accurately reproduced the observed curves both overall and for patients subdivided according to risk levels using an independent Cox model. DISCUSSION: The new model, validated here, effectively reproduces the observed course of AD from an initial visit assessment, allowing users to project coordinated developments for individual patients of multiple disease features.

Decline in biological resilience as key manifestation of aging: Potential mechanisms and role in health and longevity.

Decline in biological resilience (ability to recover) is a key manifestation of aging that contributes to increase in vulnerability to death with age eventually limiting longevity even in people without major chronic diseases. Understanding the mechanisms of this decline is essential for developing efficient anti-aging and pro-longevity interventions. In this paper we discuss: a) mechanisms of the decline in resilience with age, and aging components that contribute to this decline, including depletion of body reserves, imperfect repair mechanisms, and slowdown of physiological processes and responses with age; b) anti-aging interventions that may improve resilience or attenuate its decline; c) biomarkers of resilience available in human and experimental studies; and d) genetic factors that could influence resilience. There are open questions about optimal anti-aging interventions that would oppose the decline in resilience along with extending longevity limits. However, the area develops quickly, and prospects are exciting.

Genetics of physiological dysregulation: findings from the long life family study using joint models.

Recently, Mahalanobis distance (DM) was suggested as a statistical measure of physiological dysregulation in aging individuals. We constructed DM variants using sets of biomarkers collected at the two visits of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) and performed joint analyses of longitudinal observations of DM and follow-up mortality in LLFS using joint models. We found that DM is significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.31 [1.16, 1.48] to 2.22 [1.84, 2.67]) after controlling for age and other covariates. GWAS of random intercepts and slopes of DM estimated from joint models found a genome-wide significant SNP (rs12652543, p=7.2×10-9) in the TRIO gene associated with the slope of DM constructed from biomarkers declining in late life. Review of biological effects of genes corresponding to top SNPs from GWAS of DM slopes revealed that these genes are broadly involved in cancer prognosis and axon guidance/synapse function. Although axon growth is mainly observed during early development, the axon guidance genes can function in adults and contribute to maintenance of neural circuits and synaptic plasticity. Our results indicate that decline in axons' ability to maintain complex regulatory networks may potentially play an important role in the increase in physiological dysregulation during aging.

Composite Measure of Physiological Dysregulation as a Predictor of Mortality: The Long Life Family Study.

Biological aging results in changes in an organism that accumulate over age in a complex fashion across different regulatory systems, and their cumulative effect manifests in increased physiological dysregulation (PD) and declining robustness and resilience that increase risks of health disorders and death. Several composite measures involving multiple biomarkers that capture complex effects of aging have been proposed. We applied one such approach, the Mahalanobis distance (DM), to baseline measurements of various biomarkers (inflammation, hematological, diabetes-associated, lipids, endocrine, renal) in 3,279 participants from the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) with complete biomarker data. We used DM to estimate the level of PD by summarizing information about multiple deviations of biomarkers from specified "norms" in the reference population (here, LLFS participants younger than 60 years at baseline). An increase in DM was associated with significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio per standard deviation of DM: 1.42; 95% confidence interval: [1.3, 1.54]), even after adjustment for a composite measure summarizing 85 health-related deficits (disabilities, diseases, less severe symptoms), age, and other covariates. Such composite measures significantly improved mortality predictions especially in the subsample of participants from families enriched for exceptional longevity (the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves are 0.88 vs. 0.85, in models with and without the composite measures, p = 2.9 × 10-5). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that our conclusions are not sensitive to different aspects of computational procedures. Our findings provide the first evidence of association of PD with mortality and its predictive performance in a unique sample selected for exceptional familial longevity.

Prevalence, Incidence, and Risk Factors for Overall, Physical, and Cognitive Independence Among Those From Exceptionally Long-Lived Families: The Long Life Family Study.

BACKGROUND: The Long Life Family Study (LLFS) enrolled families exhibiting exceptional longevity. The goal of this article was to determine the prevalence and predictors of remaining independent after 7 years in the oldest generation. METHODS: We examined 7-year change in physical (free of activities of daily living difficulty), cognitive (Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥ 24), and overall independence (physically/cognitively independent) in adults aged 90.3 ± 6.3 from LLFS's oldest generation. Potential predictors (n = 28) of remaining independent included demographics, diseases, biomarkers, anthropometrics, and physical and cognitive performance tasks and were determined using generalized estimating equations (α: p < .05). This was a discovery/exploratory analysis, so no multiple testing correction was employed and the results require independent replication. RESULTS: At baseline (n = 1442), 67.3%, 83.8%, and 79.7% were overall, physically, and cognitively independent, respectively. After 7 years, 66% died, 7.5% were lost to follow-up, and the prevalence of overall independence decreased to 59.1% in survivors (-8.2%, 95% confidence interval: -14.1%, 2.2%). Of those with baseline independence, 156/226 (69.0%) remained independent. Predictors of remaining physically independent included younger age, better Short Physical Performance Battery score and lung function, smaller waist circumference, and lower soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-product levels (p < .05). Predictors of remaining cognitively independent included no cancer history, better Digit Symbol Substitution Test performance, and higher body weight (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of independence decreased by only 8.2% after 7 years, demonstrating the close correspondence between disability and mortality. Further, despite a mean baseline age of 90 years, a large proportion of survivors remained independent, suggesting this exceptional subgroup may harbor protective mechanisms.

Polygenic risk score for disability and insights into disability-related molecular mechanisms.

Late life disability is a highly devastating condition affecting 20% or more of persons aged 65 years and older in the USA; it is an important determinant of acute medical and long-term care costs which represent a growing burden on national economies. Disability is a multifactorial trait that contributes substantially to decline of health/wellbeing. Accordingly, gaining insights into the genetics of disability could help in identifying molecular mechanisms of this devastating condition and age-related processes contributing to a large fraction of specific geriatric conditions, concordantly with geroscience. We performed a genome-wide association study of disability in a sample of 24,068 subjects from five studies with 12,550 disabled individuals. We identified 30 promising disability-associated polymorphisms in 19 loci at p < 10-4; four of them attained suggestive significance, p < 10-5. In contrast, polygenic risk scores aggregating effects of minor alleles of independent SNPs that were adversely or beneficially associated with disability showed highly significant associations in meta-analysis, p = 3.13 × 10-45 and p = 5.60 × 10-23, respectively, and were replicated in each study. The analysis of genetic pathways, related diseases, and biological functions supported the connections of genes for the identified SNPs with disabling and age-related conditions primarily through oxidative/nitrosative stress, inflammatory response, and ciliary signaling. We identified musculoskeletal system development, maintenance, and regeneration as important components of gene functions. The beneficial and adverse gene sets may be differently implicated in the development of musculoskeletal-related disability with the beneficial set characterized, e.g., by regulation of chondrocyte proliferation and bone formation, and the adverse set by inflammation and bone loss.

Validation of the JEN frailty index in the National Long-Term Care Survey community population: identifying functionally impaired older adults from claims data.

BACKGROUND: Use of a claims-based index to identify persons with physical function impairment and at risk for long-term institutionalization would facilitate population health and comparative effectiveness research. The JEN Frailty Index [JFI] is comprised of diagnosis domains representing impairments and multimorbid clusters with high long-term institutionalization [LTI] risk. We test the index's discrimination of activities-of-daily-living [ADL] dependency and 1-year LTI and mortality in a nationally representative sample of over 12,000 Medicare beneficiaries, and compare long-term community survival stratified by ADL and JFI. METHODS: 2004 U.S. National Long-Term Care Survey data were linked to Medicare, Minimum Data Set, Veterans Health Administration files and vital statistics. ADL dependencies, JFI score, age and sex were measured at baseline survey. ADL and JFI groups were cross-tabulated generating likelihood ratios and classification statistics. Logistic regression compared discrimination (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves), multivariable calibration and accuracy of the JFI and, separately, ADLs, in predicting 1-year outcomes. Hall-Wellner bands facilitated contrasts of JFI- and ADL-stratified 5-year community survival. RESULTS: Likelihood ratios rose evenly across JFI risk categories. Areas under the curves of functional dependency at ≥3 and ≥ 2 for JFI, age and sex models were 0.807 [95% c.i.: 0.795, 0.819] and 0.812 [0.801, 0.822], respectively. The area under the LTI curve for JFI and age (0.781 [0.747, 0.815]) discriminated less well than the ADL-based model (0.829 [0.799, 0.860]). Community survival separated by JFI strata was comparable to ADL strata. CONCLUSIONS: The JEN Frailty Index with demographic covariates is a valid claims-based measure of concurrent activities-of-daily-living impairments and future long-term institutionalization risk in older populations lacking functional information.

How Well Does the Family Longevity Selection Score Work: A Validation Test Using the Utah Population Database.

The Family Longevity Selection Score (FLoSS) was used to select families for the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) but has never been validated in other populations. The goal of this paper is to validate how well the FLoSS-based selection procedure works in an independent dataset. In this paper, we computed FLoSS using the lifespan data of 234,155 individuals from a large comprehensive genealogically-based resource, the Utah Population Database (UPDB), born between 1779 and 1910 with mortality follow-up through 2012-2013. Computations of FLoSS in a specific year (1980) confirmed the survival advantage of the "exceptional" sibships (defined by LLFS FLoSS threshold, FLoSS ≥ 7). We found that the subsample of the UPDB participants born after 1900 who were from the "exceptional" sibships had survival curves similar to that of the US participants from the LLFS probands' generation. Comparisons between the offspring of parents with "exceptional" and "ordinary" survival showed the survival advantage of the "exceptional" offspring. Investigators seeking to explain the extent genetics and environment contribute to exceptional survival will benefit from the use of exceptionally long-lived individuals and their relatives. Appropriate ranking of families by survival exceptionality and their availability for the purposes of providing genetic and phenotypic data is critical for selecting participants into such studies. This study validated the FLoSS as selection criteria in family longevity studies using UPDB.

Genetics of Human Longevity From Incomplete Data: New Findings From the Long Life Family Study.

The special design of the Long Life Family Study provides a unique opportunity to investigate the genetics of human longevity by analyzing data on exceptional lifespans in families. In this article, we performed two series of genome wide association studies of human longevity which differed with respect to whether missing lifespan data were predicted or not predicted. We showed that the use of predicted lifespan is most beneficial when the follow-up period is relatively short. In addition to detection of strong associations of SNPs in APOE, TOMM40, NECTIN2, and APOC1 genes with longevity, we also detected a strong new association with longevity of rs1927465, located between the CYP26A1 and MYOF genes on chromosome 10. The association was confirmed using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We discuss the biological relevance of the detected SNPs to human longevity.

Time Trends in the Prevalence of Neurocognitive Disorders and Cognitive Impairment in the United States: The Effects of Disease Severity and Improved Ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Trends in the prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) based on cognitive assessment instruments are often inconsistent with those of neurocognitive disorders (ND) based on Medicare claims records. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that improved ascertainment and resulting decrease in disease severity at the time of diagnosis are responsible for this phenomenon. METHODS: Using Medicare data linked to the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2012), we performed a joint analysis of trends in CI and ND to test our hypothesis. RESULTS: We identified two major contributors to the divergent directions in CI and ND trends: reductions in disease severity explained more than 60% of the differences between CI and ND prevalence over the study period; the remaining 40% was explained by a decrease in the fraction of undiagnosed individuals. DISCUSSION: Improvements in the diagnoses of ND diseases were a major contributor to reported trends in ND and CI. Recent forecasts of CI and ND trends in the U.S. may be overly pessimistic.

Hidden heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease: Insights from genetic association studies and other analyses.

Despite evident success in clarifying many important features of Alzheimer's disease (AD) the efficient methods of its prevention and treatment are not yet available. The reasons are likely to be the fact that AD is a multifactorial and heterogeneous health disorder with multiple alternative pathways of disease development and progression. The availability of genetic data on individuals participated in longitudinal studies of aging health and longevity, as well as on participants of cross-sectional case-control studies allow for investigating genetic and non-genetic connections with AD and to link the results of these analyses with research findings obtained in clinical, experimental, and molecular biological studies of this health disorder. The objective of this paper is to perform GWAS of AD in several study populations and investigate possible roles of detected genetic factors in developing AD hallmarks and in other health disorders. The data collected in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Late Onset Alzheimer's Disease Family Study (LOADFS) were used in these analyses. The logistic regression and Cox's regression were used as statistical models in GWAS. The results of analyses confirmed strong associations of genetic variants from well-known genes APOE, TOMM40, PVRL2 (NECTIN2), and APOC1 with AD. Possible roles of these genes in pathological mechanisms resulting in development of hallmarks of AD are described. Many genes whose connection with AD was detected in other studies showed nominally significant associations with this health disorder in our study. The evidence on genetic connections between AD and vulnerability to infection, as well as between AD and other health disorders, such as cancer and type 2 diabetes, were investigated. The progress in uncovering hidden heterogeneity in AD would be substantially facilitated if common mechanisms involved in development of AD, its hallmarks, and AD related chronic conditions were investigated in their mutual connection.

Personalized predictive modeling for patients with Alzheimer's disease using an extension of Sullivan's life table model.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression varies substantially among patients, hindering calculation of residual total life expectancy (TLE) and its decomposition into disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and disabled life expectancy (DLE) for individual patients with AD. The objective of the present study was to assess the accuracy of a new synthesis of Sullivan's life table (SLT) and longitudinal Grade of Membership (L-GoM) models that estimates individualized TLEs, DFLEs, and DLEs for patients with AD. If sufficiently accurate, such information could enhance the quality of important decisions in AD treatment and patient care. METHODS: We estimated a new SLT/L-GoM model of the natural history of AD over 10 years in the Predictors 2 Study cohort: N = 229 with 6 fixed and 73 time-varying covariates over 21 examinations covering 11 measurement domains including cognitive, functional, behavioral, psychiatric, and other symptoms/signs. Total remaining life expectancy was censored at 10 years. Disability was defined as need for full-time care (FTC), the outcome most strongly associated with AD progression. All parameters were estimated via weighted maximum likelihood using data-dependent weights designed to ensure that the estimates of the prognostic subtypes were of high quality. Goodness of fit was tested/confirmed for survival and FTC disability for five relatively homogeneous subgroups defined to cover the range of patient outcomes over the 21 examinations. RESULTS: The substantial heterogeneity in initial patient presentation and AD progression was captured using three clinically meaningful prognostic subtypes and one terminal subtype exhibiting highly differentiated symptom severity on 7 of the 11 measurement domains. Comparisons of the observed and estimated survival and FTC disability probabilities demonstrated that the estimates were accurate for all five subgroups, supporting their use in AD life expectancy calculations. Mean 10-year TLE differed widely across subgroups: range 3.6-8.0 years, average 6.1 years. Mean 10-year DFLE differed relatively even more widely across subgroups: range 1.2-6.5 years, average 4.0 years. Mean 10-year DLE was relatively much closer: range 1.5-2.3 years, average 2.1 years. CONCLUSIONS: The SLT/L-GoM model yields accurate maximum likelihood estimates of TLE, DFLE, and DLE for patients with AD; it provides a realistic, comprehensive modeling framework for endpoint and resource use/cost calculations.

stpm: an R package for stochastic process model.

BACKGROUND: The Stochastic Process Model (SPM) represents a general framework for modeling the joint evolution of repeatedly measured variables and time-to-event outcomes observed in longitudinal studies, i.e., SPM relates the stochastic dynamics of variables (e.g., physiological or biological measures) with the probabilities of end points (e.g., death or system failure). SPM is applicable for analyses of longitudinal data in many research areas; however, there are no publicly available software tools that implement this methodology. RESULTS: We developed an R package stpm for the SPM-methodology. The package estimates several versions of SPM currently available in the literature including discrete- and continuous-time multidimensional models and a one-dimensional model with time-dependent parameters. Also, the package provides tools for simulation and projection of individual trajectories and hazard functions. CONCLUSION: In this paper, we present the first software implementation of the SPM-methodology by providing an R package stpm, which was verified through extensive simulation and validation studies. Future work includes further improvements of the model. Clinical and academic researchers will benefit from using the presented model and software. The R package stpm is available as open source software from the following links: https://cran.r-project.org/package=stpm (stable version) or https://github.com/izhbannikov/spm (developer version).