Model-based evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemiological impact on international visitors during Expo 2020.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large events has been substantial. In this work, an evaluation of the potential impact of international arrivals due to Expo 2020 in terms of potential COVID-19 infections from October 1st, 2021, until the end of April 2022 in the United Arab Emirates is presented. Our simulation results indicate that: (i) the vaccination status of the visitors appears to have a small impact on cases, this is expected as the small numbers of temporary visitors with respect to the total population contribute little to the herd immunity status; and (ii) the number of infected arrivals is the major factor of impact potentially causing a surge in cases countrywide with the subsequent hospitalisations and fatalities. These results indicate that the prevention of infected arrivals should take all precedence priority to mitigate the impact of international visitors with their vaccination status being of less relevance.

Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the population level costs, effects, and cost effectiveness of selected, individual based interventions to combat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in the context of low and middle income countries. DESIGN: Sectoral cost effectiveness analysis using a lifetime population model. SETTING: Two World Health Organization sub-regions of the world: countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality (AfrE); and countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality (SearD). DATA SOURCES: Disease rates and profiles were taken from the WHO Global Burden of Disease study; estimates of intervention effects and resource needs were drawn from clinical trials, observational studies, and treatment guidelines. Unit costs were taken from a WHO price database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted, expressed in international dollars ($Int) for the year 2005. RESULTS: In both regions low dose inhaled corticosteroids for mild persistent asthma was considered the most cost effective intervention, with average cost per DALY averted about $Int2500. The next best value strategies were influenza vaccine for COPD in Sear-D (incremental cost $Int4950 per DALY averted) and low dose inhaled corticosteroids plus long acting ß agonists for moderate persistent asthma in Afr-E (incremental cost $Int9112 per DALY averted). CONCLUSIONS: COPD is irreversible and progressive, and current treatment options produce relatively little gains relative to the cost. The treatment options available for asthma, however, generally decrease chronic respiratory disease burden at a relatively low cost.

The economic impact of chronic diseases: how do households respond to shocks? Evidence from Russia.

The epidemiological burden of chronic diseases is increasing worldwide and there is very little empirical evidence regarding the economic impact of chronic diseases on individuals and households. The primary objective of this paper is to explore the evidence on how chronic diseases affect household healthcare expenditure, non-health consumption, labour (earned) income, and to demonstrate how transfers may provide some insurance against shocks from chronic diseases. We have explicated a two-part Heckit model on household level data obtained from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS) from Russia to control for nontrivial proportion of zeros in the dependent variables, skewed distribution of expenditure data and endogeneity. The results indicate that chronic diseases are significantly associated with higher levels of household healthcare expenditure in Russia and productivity losses reflected by reduced labour supply and reduced household labour income. Non-healthcare expenditure also increased. Results suggest that households are able to insure non-health consumption against chronic diseases, possibly from transfers, which also increased. In addition, socioeconomic status indicators significantly explained the impact of chronic diseases on households. Insurance and higher average education in households were associated with higher healthcare expenditure. Household transfers were significant in Russia despite an appreciable level of insurance cover. We conclude that households depend on informal coping mechanisms in the face of chronic diseases, irrespective of insurance cover. These results have implications for policies regarding the financing of treatment and control of chronic diseases in the country studied.