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2.
JAC Antimicrob Resist ; 6(2): dlae036, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38476774

ABSTRACT

Background: It is important to optimize dosing schemes of antibiotics to maximize the probability of therapeutic success. The recommended pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) index for piperacillin/tazobactam therapy in clinical studies ranges widely (50%-100% fT>1-4×MIC). Dosing schemes failing to achieve PK/PD targets may lead to negative treatment outcomes. Objectives: The first aim of this study was to define the optimal PK/PD index of piperacillin/tazobactam with a hollow-fibre infection model (HFIM). The second aim was to predict whether these PK/PD targets are currently achieved in critically ill patients through PK/PD model simulation. Patients and methods: A dose-fractionation study comprising 21 HFIM experiments was performed against a range of Gram-negative bacterial pathogens, doses and infusion times. Clinical data and dose histories from a case series of nine patients with a known bacterial infection treated with piperacillin/tazobactam in the ICU were collected. The PK/PD index and predicted plasma concentrations and therefore target attainment of the patients were simulated using R version 4.2.1. Results: fT >MIC was found to be the best-fitting PK/PD index for piperacillin/tazobactam. Bactericidal activity with 2 log10 cfu reduction was associated with 77% fT>MIC. Piperacillin/tazobactam therapy was defined as clinically 'ineffective' in ∼78% (7/9) patients. Around seventy-one percent (5/7) of these patients had a probability of >10% that 2  log10 cfu reduction was not attained. Conclusions: Our dose-fractionation study indicates an optimal PK/PD target in piperacillin/tazobactam therapies should be 77% fT>MIC for 2 log10 kill. Doses to achieve this target should be considered when treating patients in ICU.

3.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 1652, 2024 Feb 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38396069

ABSTRACT

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cytidine/analogs & derivatives , Hydroxylamines , SARS-CoV-2 , Adult , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Outpatients , Antibody Formation , Antibodies, Viral , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use
4.
Clin Immunol ; 259: 109901, 2024 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38218209

ABSTRACT

Chronic human norovirus (HuNoV) infections in immunocompromised patients result in severe disease, yet approved antivirals are lacking. RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) inhibitors inducing viral mutagenesis display broad-spectrum in vitro antiviral activity, but clinical efficacy in HuNoV infections is anecdotal and the potential emergence of drug-resistant variants is concerning. Upon favipiravir (and nitazoxanide) treatment of four immunocompromised patients with life-threatening HuNoV infections, viral whole-genome sequencing showed accumulation of favipiravir-induced mutations which coincided with clinical improvement although treatment failed to clear HuNoV. Infection of zebrafish larvae demonstrated drug-associated loss of viral infectivity and favipiravir treatment showed efficacy despite occurrence of RdRp variants potentially causing favipiravir resistance. This indicates that within-host resistance evolution did not reverse loss of viral fitness caused by genome-wide accumulation of sequence changes. This off-label approach supports the use of mutagenic antivirals for treating prolonged RNA viral infections and further informs the debate surrounding their impact on virus evolution.


Subject(s)
Amides , Norovirus , Pyrazines , Viruses , Animals , Humans , Norovirus/genetics , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Zebrafish , Mutagenesis , RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase/genetics , Immunocompromised Host
5.
Clin Pharmacol Ther ; 115(1): 116-125, 2024 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37846495

ABSTRACT

A toxicity-reduced conditioning regimen with treosulfan, fludarabine, and thiotepa in patients with high-risk ß-thalassemia major has significantly improved hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes. However, complications resulting from regimen-related toxicities (RRTs), mixed chimerism, and graft rejection remain a challenge. We evaluated the dose-exposure-response relationship of treosulfan and its active metabolite S, S-EBDM, in a uniform cohort of patients with ß-thalassemia major to identify whether therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and dose adjustment of treosulfan is feasible. Plasma treosulfan/S, S-EBDM levels were measured in 77 patients using a validated liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry method, and the pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using nlmixr2. The influence of treosulfan and S, S-EBDM exposure, and GSTA1/NQO1 polymorphisms on graft rejection, RRTs, chimerism status, and 1-year overall survival (OS), and thalassemia-free survival (TFS) were assessed. We observed that treosulfan exposure was lower in patients with graft rejection than those without (1,655 vs. 2,037 mg•h/L, P = 0.07). Pharmacodynamic modeling analysis to identify therapeutic cutoff revealed that treosulfan exposure ≥1,660 mg•hour/L was significantly associated with better 1-year TFS (97% vs. 81%, P = 0.02) and a trend to better 1-year OS (90% vs. 69%, P = 0.07). Further, multivariate analysis adjusting for known pre-HCT risk factors also revealed treosulfan exposure <1,660 mg•h/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.23; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12-9.34; P = 0.03) and GSTA1*B variant genotype (HR = 3.75; 95% CI = 1.04-13.47; P = 0.04) to be independent predictors for inferior 1-year TFS. We conclude that lower treosulfan exposure increases the risk of graft rejection and early transplant-related mortality affecting TFS. As no RRTs were observed with increasing treosulfan exposure, TDM-based dose adjustment could be feasible and beneficial.


Subject(s)
Graft vs Host Disease , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation , beta-Thalassemia , Humans , beta-Thalassemia/therapy , Busulfan/adverse effects , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/methods , Thiotepa , Transplantation Conditioning/methods , Graft vs Host Disease/chemically induced , Graft vs Host Disease/drug therapy
7.
CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol ; 12(10): 1450-1460, 2023 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37534815

ABSTRACT

Mathematical models of viral dynamics have been reported to describe adequately the dynamic changes of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 viral load within an individual host. In this study, eight published viral dynamic models were assessed, and model selection was performed. Viral load data were collected from a community surveillance study, including 2155 measurements from 162 patients (124 household and 38 non-household contacts). An extended version of the target-cell limited model that includes an eclipse phase and an immune response component that enhances viral clearance described best the data. In general, the parameter estimates showed good precision (relative standard error <10), apart from the death rate of infected cells. The parameter estimates were used to simulate the outcomes of a clinical trial of the antiviral tixagevimab-cilgavimab, a monoclonal antibody combination which blocks infection of the target cells by neutralizing the virus. The simulated outcome of the effectiveness of the antiviral therapy in controlling viral replication was in a good agreement with the clinical trial data. Early treatment with high antiviral efficacy is important for desired therapeutic outcome.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Virus Replication , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use
8.
BMJ Open ; 13(8): e069176, 2023 08 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37550022

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Middle Aged , Aged , Antiviral Agents , SARS-CoV-2 , Prospective Studies , Treatment Outcome , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
9.
J Antimicrob Chemother ; 78(9): 2148-2161, 2023 09 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37531085

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Pharmacokinetic (PK) data underlying paediatric penicillin dosing remain limited, especially in critical care. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of the Neonatal and Paediatric Pharmacokinetics of Antimicrobials study (NAPPA) was to characterize PK profiles of commonly used penicillins using data obtained during routine care, to further understanding of PK variability and inform future evidence-based dosing. METHODS: NAPPA was a multicentre study of amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, benzylpenicillin, flucloxacillin and piperacillin/tazobactam. Patients were recruited with informed consent. Antibiotic dosing followed standard of care. PK samples were obtained opportunistically or at optimal times, frozen and analysed using UPLC with tandem MS. Pharmacometric analysis was undertaken using NONMEM software (v7.3). Model-based simulations (n = 10 000) tested PTA with British National Formulary for Children (BNFC) and WHO dosing. The study had ethical approval. RESULTS: For the combined IV PK model, 963 PK samples from 370 participants were analysed simultaneously incorporating amoxicillin, benzylpenicillin, flucloxacillin and piperacillin data. BNFC high-dose regimen simulations gave these PTA results (median fT>MIC at breakpoints of specified pathogens): amoxicillin 100% (Streptococcus pneumoniae); benzylpenicillin 100% (Group B Streptococcus); flucloxacillin 48% (MSSA); and piperacillin 100% (Pseudomonas aeruginosa). Oral population PK models for flucloxacillin and amoxicillin enabled estimation of first-order absorption rate constants (1.16 h-1 and 1.3 h-1) and bioavailability terms (62.7% and 58.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: NAPPA represents, to our knowledge, the largest prospective combined paediatric penicillin PK study undertaken to date, and the first paediatric flucloxacillin oral PK model. The PTA results provide evidence supportive of BNFC high-dose IV regimens for amoxicillin, benzylpenicillin and piperacillin.


Subject(s)
Floxacillin , Piperacillin , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Child , Adolescent , Piperacillin/pharmacokinetics , Amoxicillin , Prospective Studies , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Penicillins , Microbial Sensitivity Tests
10.
Bone Joint J ; 105-B(8): 850-856, 2023 Aug 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37524359

ABSTRACT

The recently published Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens In Tumor Surgery (PARITY) trial found no benefit in extending antibiotic prophylaxis from 24 hours to five days after endoprosthetic reconstruction for lower limb bone tumours. PARITY is the first randomized controlled trial in orthopaedic oncology and is a huge step forward in understanding antibiotic prophylaxis. However, significant gaps remain, including questions around antibiotic choice, particularly in the UK, where cephalosporins are avoided due to concerns of Clostridioides difficile infection. We present a review of the evidence for antibiotic choice, dosing, and timing, and a brief description of PARITY, its implication for practice, and the remaining gaps in our understanding.


Subject(s)
Orthopedics , Plastic Surgery Procedures , Female , Pregnancy , Humans , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Antibiotic Prophylaxis , Cephalosporins , Surgical Wound Infection/prevention & control , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
11.
Expert Rev Clin Pharmacol ; 16(8): 715-726, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37470695

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Medicine use in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) is complicated by inconsistent pharmacokinetics at variance with the general population, a lack of research into this and its effects on clinical outcomes. In the absence of established dose regimens, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is a clinically relevant tool to optimize drug exposure and maximize therapeutic effect by the bedside. In clinical practice though, use of this is variable and limited by a lack of expert recommendations. AREAS COVERED: We aimed to review the use of TDM in children with CF to summarize recent developments, current recommendations, and opportunities for future directions. We searched PubMed for relevant publications using the broad search terms "cystic fibrosis" in combination with the specific terms "therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)" and "children." Further searches were undertaken using the name of identified drugs combined with the term "TDM." EXPERT OPINION: Further research into the use of Bayesian forecasting and the relationship between exposure and response is required to personalize dosing, with the opportunity for the development of expert recommendations in children with CF. Use of noninvasive methods of TDM has the potential to improve accessibility to TDM in this cohort.


Subject(s)
Cystic Fibrosis , Humans , Child , Cystic Fibrosis/drug therapy , Drug Monitoring , Bayes Theorem , Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator/genetics , Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator/therapeutic use , Mutation
12.
Antimicrob Agents Chemother ; 67(7): e0007723, 2023 07 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37260401

ABSTRACT

Invasive fungal infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality for immunocompromised patients. Posaconazole is approved for treatment and prophylaxis of invasive fungal infection in adult patients, with intravenous, oral suspension, and gastroresistant/delayed-released tablet formulations available. In Europe, until very recently, posaconazole was used off-label in children, although a new delayed-release suspension approved for pediatric use is expected to become available soon. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed which uses posaconazole therapeutic drug monitoring data following intravenous and oral dosing in hospitalized children, thus enabling estimation of pediatric suspension and tablet oral bioavailability. In total, 297 therapeutic drug monitoring plasma levels from 104 children were included in this analysis. The final model was a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and nonlinear elimination. Allometric scaling on clearance and volume of distribution was included a priori. Tablet bioavailability was estimated to be 66%. Suspension bioavailability was estimated to decrease with increasing doses, ranging from 3.8% to 32.2% in this study population. Additionally, concomitant use of proton pump-inhibitors was detected as a significant covariate, reducing suspension bioavailability by 41.0%. This is the first population pharmacokinetic study to model posaconazole data from hospitalized children following intravenous, tablet, and suspension dosing simultaneously. The incorporation of saturable posaconazole clearance into the model has been key to the credible joint estimation of tablet and suspension bioavailability. To aid rational posaconazole dosing in children, this model was used alongside published pharmacodynamic targets to predict the probability of target attainment using typical pediatric dosing regimen.


Subject(s)
Antifungal Agents , Invasive Fungal Infections , Adult , Humans , Child , Child, Hospitalized , Biological Availability , Drug Monitoring , Administration, Oral , Invasive Fungal Infections/drug therapy , Invasive Fungal Infections/prevention & control , Tablets , Suspensions
13.
Paediatr Anaesth ; 33(10): 781-792, 2023 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37341161

ABSTRACT

Pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic modeling is an important tool which uses statistical methodology to provide a better understanding of the relationship between concentration and effect of drugs such as analgesics and sedatives. Pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic models also describe between-subject variability that allows identification of subgroups and dose adjustment for optimal pain management in individual patients. This approach is particularly useful in the pediatric population, where most drugs have received limited evaluation and dosing is extrapolated from adult practice. In children, the covariates of weight and age are used to describe size- and maturation-related changes in pharmacokinetics. It is important to consider both size and maturation in order to develop an accurate model and determine the optimal dose for different age groups. An adequate assessment of analgesic and sedative effect using pain scales or brain activity measures is essential to build reliable pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic models. This is often challenging in children due to the multidimensional nature of pain and the limited sensitivity and specificity of some measurement tools. This review provides a summary of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic methodology used to describe the dose-concentration-effect relationship of analgesics and sedation in children, with a focus on the different pharmacodynamic endpoints and the challenges of pharmacodynamic modeling.


Subject(s)
Analgesics , Hypnotics and Sedatives , Adult , Humans , Child , Hypnotics and Sedatives/pharmacology , Hypnotics and Sedatives/therapeutic use , Pain/drug therapy , Pain Management , Pain Measurement , Models, Biological
14.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 12(4)2023 Mar 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37107004

ABSTRACT

Pharmacokinetics are highly variable in critical illness, and suboptimal antibiotic exposure is associated with treatment failure. Benzylpenicillin is a commonly used beta-lactam antibiotic, and pharmacokinetic data of its use in critically ill adults are lacking. We performed a pharmacokinetic study of critically unwell patients receiving benzylpenicillin, using data from the ABDose study. Population pharmacokinetic modelling was undertaken using NONMEM version 7.5, and simulations using the final model were undertaken to optimize the pharmacokinetic profile. We included 77 samples from 12 participants. A two-compartment structural model provided the best fit, with allometric weight scaling for all parameters and a creatinine covariate effect on clearance. Simulations (n = 10,000) demonstrated that 25% of simulated patients receiving 2.4 g 4-hourly failed to achieve a conservative target of 50% of the dosing interval with free drug above the clinical breakpoint MIC (2 mg/L). Simulations demonstrated that target attainment was improved with continuous or extended dosing. To our knowledge, this study represents the first full population PK analysis of benzylpenicillin in critically ill adults.

15.
Front Plant Sci ; 14: 1126470, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36923134

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Broadly neutralising antibodies are promising candidates for preventing and treating Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS), as an alternative to or in combination with antiretroviral therapy (ART). These mAbs bind to sites on the virus essential for virus attachment and entry, thereby inhibiting entry into the host cell. However, the cost and availability of monoclonal antibodies, especially combinations of antibodies, hampers implementation of anti-HIV bNAb therapies in low- to middle- income countries (LMICs) where HIV-1 prevalence is highest. Methods: We have produced three HIV broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs), 10-1074, VRC01 and 3BNC117 in the Nicotiana benthamiana transient expression system. The impact of specific modifications to enhance potency and efficacy were assessed. To prolong half-life and increase bioavailability, a M252Y/S254T/T256E (YTE) or M428L/N434S (LS) mutation was introduced. To increase antibody dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), we expressed an afucosylated version of each antibody using a glycoengineered plant line. Results: The majority of bNAbs and their variants could be expressed at yields of up to 47 mg/kg. Neither the expression system nor the modifications impacted the neutralization potential of the bNAbs. Afucosylated bNAbs exhibit enhanced ability to bind to FcγRIIIa and trigger ADCC, regardless of the presence of Fc amino acid mutations. Lastly, we demonstrated that Fc-modified variants expressed in plants show enhanced binding to FcRn, which results in a favourable in vivo pharmacokinetic profile compared to their unmodified counterparts. Conclusion: Tobacco plants are suitable expression hosts for anti-HIV bNAbs with increased efficacy and an improved pharmacokinetic profile.

17.
Trials ; 24(1): 60, 2023 Jan 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36703139

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute self-limiting inflammatory vasculitis affecting predominantly medium-sized arteries, particularly the coronary arteries. A number of recent studies conducted in different European countries have demonstrated alarmingly high coronary complications despite treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG). These high complication rates now emphasize the need for an urgent reappraisal of IVIG as the sole primary therapeutic agent for KD. The Kawasaki disease CAA prevention (KD-CAAP) trial will test the hypothesis that immediate adjunctive corticosteroid treatment to standard of care IVIG and aspirin will reduce coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) rates in unselected KD patients across Europe. METHODS: KD-CAAP is a multicentre, randomised, controlled, open-label, blinded endpoint assessed trial that will be conducted across Europe supported by the conect4children pan-European clinical trials network. Patients with KD who satisfy the eligibility criteria will be randomised (1:1) to receive either oral prednisolone 2 mg/kg/day plus standard of care therapy IVIG (2 g/kg) and aspirin (40 mg/kg/day); or IVIG and aspirin alone. Further management is dictated by temperature and C-reactive protein (CRP) responses. Co-primary outcomes are as follows: (i) any CAA within the 3 months of trial follow-up; (ii) average estimate of maximum coronary Z-score at weeks 1, 2 and 6 adjusting for rescue treatment. Additional outcomes will be assessed including cost effectiveness, quality of life, corticosteroid toxicity and other safety outcomes. DISCUSSION: Several recent studies have indicated that coronary complications associated with KD across Europe are much higher than early trials of IVIG had initially suggested. KD-CAAP directly addresses this issue by exploring the therapeutic benefit of adjunctive corticosteroids in unselected KD cases. If we find that corticosteroids prevent CAA and are safe, this is a cheap and widely available intervention that could be implemented immediately for the benefit of children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN71987471- March 31, 2020; Eudract 2019-004433-17.


Subject(s)
Adrenal Cortex Hormones , Aneurysm , Aspirin , Immunoglobulins, Intravenous , Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome , Child , Humans , Infant , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/adverse effects , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , Aneurysm/complications , Aneurysm/drug therapy , Aspirin/adverse effects , Aspirin/therapeutic use , Coronary Vessels , Immunoglobulins, Intravenous/adverse effects , Immunoglobulins, Intravenous/therapeutic use , Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome/complications , Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome/diagnosis , Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome/drug therapy , Multicenter Studies as Topic , Quality of Life , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Child, Preschool , Adolescent
19.
Lancet ; 401(10373): 281-293, 2023 01 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36566761

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population. METHODS: PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir. INTERPRETATION: Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , Middle Aged , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19 Vaccines , Bayes Theorem , Prospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
20.
Br J Clin Pharmacol ; 89(1): 330-339, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35976674

ABSTRACT

AIM: nlmixr offers first-order conditional estimation (FOCE), FOCE with interaction (FOCEi) and stochastic approximation estimation-maximisation (SAEM) to fit nonlinear mixed-effect models (NLMEM). We modelled metformin's pharmacokinetic data using nlmixr and investigated SAEM and FOCEi's performance with respect to bias and precision of parameter estimates, and robustness to initial estimates. METHOD: Compartmental models were fitted. The final model was determined based on the objective function value and inspection of goodness-of-fit plots. The bias and precision of parameter estimates were compared between SAEM and FOCEi using stochastic simulations and estimations. For robustness, parameters were re-estimated as the initial estimates were perturbed 100 times and resultant changes evaluated. RESULTS: The absorption kinetics of metformin depend significantly on food status. Under the fasted state, the first-order absorption into the central compartment was preceded by zero-order infusion into the depot compartment, whereas for the fed state, the absorption into the depot was instantaneous followed by first-order absorption from depot into the central compartment. The means of relative mean estimation error (rMEE) ( ME E SAEM ME E FOCEi ) and rRMSE ( RMS E SAEM RMS E FOCEi ) were 0.48 and 0.35, respectively. All parameter estimates given by SAEM appeared to be narrowly distributed and were close to the true value used for simulation. In contrast, the distribution of estimates from FOCEi were skewed and more biased. When initial estimates were perturbed, FOCEi estimates were more biased and imprecise. DISCUSSION: nlmixr is reliable for NLMEM. SAEM was superior to FOCEi in terms of bias and precision, and more robust against initial estimate perturbations.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Models, Biological , Humans , Computer Simulation , Pharmacokinetics
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