Improving the spatial and temporal resolution of burden of disease measures with Bayesian models.

This paper contributes to the field by addressing the critical issue of enhancing the spatial and temporal resolution of health data. Although Bayesian methods are frequently employed to address this challenge in various disciplines, the application of Bayesian spatio-temporal models to burden of disease (BOD) studies remains limited. Our novelty lies in the exploration of two existing Bayesian models that we show to be applicable to a wide range of BOD data, including mortality and prevalence, thereby providing evidence to support the adoption of Bayesian modeling in full BOD studies in the future. We illustrate the benefits of Bayesian modeling with an Australian case study involving asthma and coronary heart disease. Our results showcase the effectiveness of Bayesian approaches in increasing the number of small areas for which results are available and improving the reliability and stability of the results compared to using data directly from surveys or administrative sources.

Development of a regional climate change model for Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Perth, Western Australia.

Mosquito-borne disease is a significant public health issue and within Australia Ross River virus (RRV) is the most reported. This study combines a mechanistic model of mosquito development for two mosquito vectors; Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus, with climate projections from three climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to examine the possible effects of climate change and sea-level rise on a temperate tidal saltmarsh habitat in Perth, Western Australia. The projections were run under no accretion and accretion scenarios using a known mosquito habitat as a case study. This improves our understanding of the possible implications of sea-level rise, accretion and climate change for mosquito control programmes for similar habitats across temperate tidal areas found in Southwest Western Australia. The output of the model indicate that the proportion of the year mosquitoes are active increases. Population abundances of the two Aedes species increase markedly. The main drivers of changes in mosquito population abundances are increases in the frequency of inundation of the tidal wetland and size of the area inundated, increased minimum water temperature, and decreased daily temperature fluctuations as water depth increases due to sea level changes, particularly under the model with no accretion. The effects on mosquito populations are more marked for RCP 8.5 when compared to RCP 4.5 but were consistent among the three climate change models. The results indicate that Ae. vigilax is likely to be the most abundant species in 2030 and 2050, but that by 2070 Aedes camptorhynchus may become the more abundant species. This increase would put considerable pressure on existing mosquito control programmes and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease and nuisance biting to the local community, and planning to mitigate these potential impacts should commence now.

A Multi-Species Simulation of Mosquito Disease Vector Development in Temperate Australian Tidal Wetlands Using Publicly Available Data.

Worldwide, mosquito monitoring and control programs consume large amounts of resources in the effort to minimise mosquito-borne disease incidence. On-site larval monitoring is highly effective but time consuming. A number of mechanistic models of mosquito development have been developed to reduce the reliance on larval monitoring, but none for Ross River virus, the most commonly occurring mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This research modifies existing mechanistic models for malaria vectors and applies it to a wetland field site in Southwest, Western Australia. Environmental monitoring data were applied to an enzyme kinetic model of larval mosquito development to simulate timing of adult emergence and relative population abundance of three mosquito vectors of the Ross River virus for the period of 2018-2020. The model results were compared with field measured adult mosquitoes trapped using carbon dioxide light traps. The model showed different patterns of emergence for the three mosquito species, capturing inter-seasonal and inter-year variation, and correlated well with field adult trapping data. The model provides a useful tool to investigate the effects of different weather and environmental variables on larval and adult mosquito development and can be used to investigate the possible effects of changes to short-term and long-term sea level and climate changes.

Effectiveness of S-Methoprene Briquets and Application Method for Mosquito Control in Urban Road Gullies/Catch Basins/Gully Pots in a Mediterranean Climate: Implications for Ross River Virus Transmission.

Floating emergence traps were used in 15 road gullies to determine the effectiveness and longevity of S-methoprene briquets over 124 days. Samples were taken monthly from October 2014 to March 2015. Two treatment methods were assessed: application of briquet using a float, and application without a float. These methods were compared with untreated control gullies. Mosquito emergence peaked in early November, and decreased by February. Effectiveness of the briquet was not impacted significantly by the presence or absence of a float (P = 0.329). Gullies yielded a mean of 108 mosquitoes per day per gully over the season. Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes notoscriptus were the most abundant species. The maximum number of Cx. quinquefasciatus emerging could exceed 1,600 per day per gully. Aedes notoscriptus numbers could exceed 70 adults per day per gully. Treatment with S-methoprene was highly effective against both species for at least 70 days and partially effective for up to 120 days. Treatment provided no control by day 124. S-methoprene provided 90% control over 124 days. Road gullies have been confirmed as a significant larval habitat and are likely to be increasing the potential for Ross River virus transmission in the area.