pyPESTO: a modular and scalable tool for parameter estimation for dynamic models.

SUMMARY: Mechanistic models are important tools to describe and understand biological processes. However, they typically rely on unknown parameters, the estimation of which can be challenging for large and complex systems. pyPESTO is a modular framework for systematic parameter estimation, with scalable algorithms for optimization and uncertainty quantification. While tailored to ordinary differential equation problems, pyPESTO is broadly applicable to black-box parameter estimation problems. Besides own implementations, it provides a unified interface to various popular simulation and inference methods. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: pyPESTO is implemented in Python, open-source under a 3-Clause BSD license. Code and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pypesto).

Integrative modelling of reported case numbers and seroprevalence reveals time-dependent test efficiency and infectious contacts.

Mathematical models have been widely used during the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic for data interpretation, forecasting, and policy making. However, most models are based on officially reported case numbers, which depend on test availability and test strategies. The time dependence of these factors renders interpretation difficult and might even result in estimation biases. Here, we present a computational modelling framework that allows for the integration of reported case numbers with seroprevalence estimates obtained from representative population cohorts. To account for the time dependence of infection and testing rates, we embed flexible splines in an epidemiological model. The parameters of these splines are estimated, along with the other parameters, from the available data using a Bayesian approach. The application of this approach to the official case numbers reported for Munich (Germany) and the seroprevalence reported by the prospective COVID-19 Cohort Munich (KoCo19) provides first estimates for the time dependence of the under-reporting factor. Furthermore, we estimate how the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and of the testing strategy evolves over time. Overall, our results show that the integration of temporally highly resolved and representative data is beneficial for accurate epidemiological analyses.

Efficient computation of adjoint sensitivities at steady-state in ODE models of biochemical reaction networks.

Dynamical models in the form of systems of ordinary differential equations have become a standard tool in systems biology. Many parameters of such models are usually unknown and have to be inferred from experimental data. Gradient-based optimization has proven to be effective for parameter estimation. However, computing gradients becomes increasingly costly for larger models, which are required for capturing the complex interactions of multiple biochemical pathways. Adjoint sensitivity analysis has been pivotal for working with such large models, but methods tailored for steady-state data are currently not available. We propose a new adjoint method for computing gradients, which is applicable if the experimental data include steady-state measurements. The method is based on a reformulation of the backward integration problem to a system of linear algebraic equations. The evaluation of the proposed method using real-world problems shows a speedup of total simulation time by a factor of up to 4.4. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve a substantial improvement in computation time, in particular for large-scale models, where computational efficiency is critical.

Mini-batch optimization enables training of ODE models on large-scale datasets.

Quantitative dynamic models are widely used to study cellular signal processing. A critical step in modelling is the estimation of unknown model parameters from experimental data. As model sizes and datasets are steadily growing, established parameter optimization approaches for mechanistic models become computationally extremely challenging. Mini-batch optimization methods, as employed in deep learning, have better scaling properties. In this work, we adapt, apply, and benchmark mini-batch optimization for ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, thereby establishing a direct link between dynamic modelling and machine learning. On our main application example, a large-scale model of cancer signaling, we benchmark mini-batch optimization against established methods, achieving better optimization results and reducing computation by more than an order of magnitude. We expect that our work will serve as a first step towards mini-batch optimization tailored to ODE models and enable modelling of even larger and more complex systems than what is currently possible.

Cell-to-cell variability in JAK2/STAT5 pathway components and cytoplasmic volumes defines survival threshold in erythroid progenitor cells.

Survival or apoptosis is a binary decision in individual cells. However, at the cell-population level, a graded increase in survival of colony-forming unit-erythroid (CFU-E) cells is observed upon stimulation with erythropoietin (Epo). To identify components of Janus kinase 2/signal transducer and activator of transcription 5 (JAK2/STAT5) signal transduction that contribute to the graded population response, we extended a cell-population-level model calibrated with experimental data to study the behavior in single cells. The single-cell model shows that the high cell-to-cell variability in nuclear phosphorylated STAT5 is caused by variability in the amount of Epo receptor (EpoR):JAK2 complexes and of SHP1, as well as the extent of nuclear import because of the large variance in the cytoplasmic volume of CFU-E cells. 24-118 pSTAT5 molecules in the nucleus for 120 min are sufficient to ensure cell survival. Thus, variability in membrane-associated processes is sufficient to convert a switch-like behavior at the single-cell level to a graded population-level response.

AMICI: high-performance sensitivity analysis for large ordinary differential equation models.

SUMMARY: Ordinary differential equation models facilitate the understanding of cellular signal transduction and other biological processes. However, for large and comprehensive models, the computational cost of simulating or calibrating can be limiting. AMICI is a modular toolbox implemented in C++/Python/MATLAB that provides efficient simulation and sensitivity analysis routines tailored for scalable, gradient-based parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION: AMICI is published under the permissive BSD-3-Clause license with source code publicly available on https://github.com/AMICI-dev/AMICI. Citeable releases are archived on Zenodo. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

PEtab-Interoperable specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.

Benchmarking of numerical integration methods for ODE models of biological systems.

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are a key tool to understand complex mechanisms in systems biology. These models are studied using various approaches, including stability and bifurcation analysis, but most frequently by numerical simulations. The number of required simulations is often large, e.g., when unknown parameters need to be inferred. This renders efficient and reliable numerical integration methods essential. However, these methods depend on various hyperparameters, which strongly impact the ODE solution. Despite this, and although hundreds of published ODE models are freely available in public databases, a thorough study that quantifies the impact of hyperparameters on the ODE solver in terms of accuracy and computation time is still missing. In this manuscript, we investigate which choices of algorithms and hyperparameters are generally favorable when dealing with ODE models arising from biological processes. To ensure a representative evaluation, we considered 142 published models. Our study provides evidence that most ODEs in computational biology are stiff, and we give guidelines for the choice of algorithms and hyperparameters. We anticipate that our results will help researchers in systems biology to choose appropriate numerical methods when dealing with ODE models.

Optimization and profile calculation of ODE models using second order adjoint sensitivity analysis.

Motivation: Parameter estimation methods for ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of biological processes can exploit gradients and Hessians of objective functions to achieve convergence and computational efficiency. However, the computational complexity of established methods to evaluate the Hessian scales linearly with the number of state variables and quadratically with the number of parameters. This limits their application to low-dimensional problems. Results: We introduce second order adjoint sensitivity analysis for the computation of Hessians and a hybrid optimization-integration-based approach for profile likelihood computation. Second order adjoint sensitivity analysis scales linearly with the number of parameters and state variables. The Hessians are effectively exploited by the proposed profile likelihood computation approach. We evaluate our approaches on published biological models with real measurement data. Our study reveals an improved computational efficiency and robustness of optimization compared to established approaches, when using Hessians computed with adjoint sensitivity analysis. The hybrid computation method was more than 2-fold faster than the best competitor. Thus, the proposed methods and implemented algorithms allow for the improvement of parameter estimation for medium and large scale ODE models. Availability and implementation: The algorithms for second order adjoint sensitivity analysis are implemented in the Advanced MATLAB Interface to CVODES and IDAS (AMICI, https://github.com/ICB-DCM/AMICI/). The algorithm for hybrid profile likelihood computation is implemented in the parameter estimation toolbox (PESTO, https://github.com/ICB-DCM/PESTO/). Both toolboxes are freely available under the BSD license. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

PESTO: Parameter EStimation TOolbox.

Summary: PESTO is a widely applicable and highly customizable toolbox for parameter estimation in MathWorks MATLAB. It offers scalable algorithms for optimization, uncertainty and identifiability analysis, which work in a very generic manner, treating the objective function as a black box. Hence, PESTO can be used for any parameter estimation problem, for which the user can provide a deterministic objective function in MATLAB. Availability and implementation: PESTO is a MATLAB toolbox, freely available under the BSD license. The source code, along with extensive documentation and example code, can be downloaded from https://github.com/ICB-DCM/PESTO/. Contact: jan.hasenauer@helmholtz-muenchen.de. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.