The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska.

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Simple scaling of catastrophic landslide dynamics.

Catastrophic landslides involve the acceleration and deceleration of millions of tons of rock and debris in response to the forces of gravity and dissipation. Their unpredictability and frequent location in remote areas have made observations of their dynamics rare. Through real-time detection and inverse modeling of teleseismic data, we show that landslide dynamics are primarily determined by the length scale of the source mass. When combined with geometric constraints from satellite imagery, the seismically determined landslide force histories yield estimates of landslide duration, momenta, potential energy loss, mass, and runout trajectory. Measurements of these dynamical properties for 29 teleseismogenic landslides are consistent with a simple acceleration model in which height drop and rupture depth scale with the length of the failing slope.

The climatic signature of incised river meanders.

Climate controls landscape evolution, but quantitative signatures of climatic drivers have yet to be found in topography on a broad scale. Here we describe how a topographic signature of typhoon rainfall is recorded in the meandering of incising mountain rivers in the western North Pacific. Spatially averaged river sinuosity generated from digital elevation data peaks in the typhoon-dominated subtropics, where extreme rainfall and flood events are common, and decreases toward the equatorial tropics and mid-latitudes, where such extremes are rare. Once climatic trends are removed, the primary control on sinuosity is rock weakness. Our results indicate that the weakness of bedrock channel walls and their weakening by heavy rainfall together modulate rates of meander propagation and sinuosity development in incising rivers.

Evaluation of flood and landslide risk to the population of Italy.

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 "hydrogeomorphological" events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.

Links between erosion, runoff variability and seismicity in the Taiwan orogen.

The erosion of mountain belts controls their topographic and structural evolution and is the main source of sediment delivered to the oceans. Mountain erosion rates have been estimated from current relief and precipitation, but a more complete evaluation of the controls on erosion rates requires detailed measurements across a range of timescales. Here we report erosion rates in the Taiwan mountains estimated from modern river sediment loads, Holocene river incision and thermochronometry on a million-year scale. Estimated erosion rates within the actively deforming mountains are high (3-6 mm yr(-1)) on all timescales, but the pattern of erosion has changed over time in response to the migration of localized tectonic deformation. Modern, decadal-scale erosion rates correlate with historical seismicity and storm-driven runoff variability. The highest erosion rates are found where rapid deformation, high storm frequency and weak substrates coincide, despite low topographic relief.