Weight Loss Surgery Increases Kidney Transplant Rates in Patients With Renal Failure and Obesity.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the outcomes of kidney transplant (KT) candidates with obesity undergoing sleeve gastrectomy (SG) to meet the criteria for KT. METHODS: Retrospective analysis was conducted of electronic medical records of KT candidates with obesity (body mass index >35 kg/m2) who underwent SG in our institution. Weight loss, adverse health events, and the listing and transplant rates were abstracted and compared with the nonsurgical cohort. RESULTS: The SG was performed in 54 patients; 50 patients did not have surgery. Baseline demographic characteristics were comparable at the time of evaluation. Mean body mass index ± SD of the SG group was 41.7±3.6 kg/m2 at baseline (vs 41.5±4.3 kg/m2 for nonsurgical controls); at 2 and 12 months after SG, it was 36.4±4.1 kg/m2 and 32.6±4.0 kg/m2 (P<.01 for both). In the median follow-up time of 15.5 months (interquartile range, 6.4 to 23.9 months), SG was followed by active listing (37/54 people), and 20 of 54 received KT during a median follow-up time of 20.9 months (interquartile range, 14.7 to 28.3 months) after SG. In contrast, 14 of 50 patients in the nonsurgical cohort were listed, and 5 received a KT (P<.01). Three patients (5.6%) experienced surgical complications. There was no difference in overall hospitalization rates and adverse health outcomes, but the SG cohort experienced a higher risk of clinically significant functional decline. CONCLUSION: In KT candidates with obesity, SG appears to be effective, with 37% of patients undergoing KT during the next 18 months (P<.01). Further research is needed to confirm and to improve the safety and efficacy of SG for patients with obesity seeking a KT.

Electrocardiography-based Artificial Intelligence Algorithms Aid in Prediction of Long-term Mortality After Kidney Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Predicting long-term mortality postkidney transplantation (KT) using baseline clinical data presents significant challenges. This study aims to evaluate the predictive power of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled analysis of preoperative electrocardiograms (ECGs) in forecasting long-term mortality following KT. METHODS: We analyzed preoperative ECGs from KT recipients at three Mayo Clinic sites (Minnesota, Florida, and Arizona) between January 1, 2006, and July 30, 2021. The study involved 6 validated AI algorithms, each trained to predict future development of atrial fibrillation, aortic stenosis, low ejection fraction, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, amyloid heart disease, and biological age. These algorithms' outputs based on a single preoperative ECG were correlated with patient mortality data. RESULTS: Among 6504 KT recipients included in the study, 1764 (27.1%) died within a median follow-up of 5.7 y (interquartile range: 3.00-9.29 y). All AI-ECG algorithms were independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Notably, few patients had a clinical cardiac diagnosis at the time of transplant, indicating that AI-ECG scores were predictive even in asymptomatic patients. When adjusted for multiple clinical factors such as recipient age, diabetes, and pretransplant dialysis, AI algorithms for atrial fibrillation and aortic stenosis remained independently associated with long-term mortality. These algorithms also improved the C-statistic for predicting overall (C = 0.74) and cardiac-related deaths (C = 0.751). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that AI-enabled preoperative ECG analysis can be a valuable tool in predicting long-term mortality following KT and could aid in identifying patients who may benefit from enhanced cardiac monitoring because of increased risk.

Highly Sensitized Candidates Remain at Risk for Microvascular Inflammation Even When Donor-specific Antibody Is Avoided: A Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular inflammation (MVI) is a key feature of antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) among patients with HLA donor-specific antibody (DSA), but MVI at AMR thresholds (Banff glomerulitis [g] + peritubular capillaritis [ptc] score ≥ 2) without DSA has been increasingly recognized. We aimed to determine the incidence of MVI among highly sensitized kidney transplant recipients without DSA. METHODS: We performed a single-center, retrospective, matched cohort study comparing outcomes of kidney transplant recipients with cPRA ≥90% with preexisting DSA (n = 49), cPRA ≥90% without preexisting DSA (n = 47), and matched controls with cPRA = 0 without preexisting DSA (n = 49). Controls were matched by age, donor type, and transplant date. Indication and surveillance biopsies combined with annual de novo DSA screening were obtained. RESULTS: Kidney transplant recipients with a cPRA ≥90% and no evidence of preexisting or de novo DSA had a higher incidence of MVI (glomerulitis + peritubular capillaritis ≥ 2) than patients with cPRA = 0 [35% (17/49) versus 12% (6/49), P = 0.0003] over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5 (4-6) y posttransplant. Among this cPRA ≥90% group without DSA, MVI persisted in 54% of cases on follow-up biopsy (7/13), and 24% (4/13) of cases developed transplant glomerulopathy (Banff cg score > 0). CONCLUSIONS: Highly sensitized transplant recipients have a high incidence of persistent and progressive MVI, even without DSA. The mechanisms underlying these histologic features needs to be elucidated, but this information is important to consider when making decisions about transplantation among highly sensitized individuals.

Comparing the prognostic performance of iBOX and biopsy-proven acute rejection for long-term kidney graft survival.

Biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) occurs in approximately 10% of kidney transplant recipients in the first year, making superiority trials unfeasible. iBOX, a quantitative composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, antihuman leukocyte antigen donor-specific antibody, and + full/- abbreviated kidney histopathology, is a new proposed surrogate endpoint. BPAR's prognostic ability was compared with iBOX in a pooled cohort of 1534 kidney transplant recipients from 4 data sets, including 2 prospective randomized controlled trials. Discrimination analyses showed mean c-statistic differences between both iBOX compared with BPAR of 0.25 (95% confidence interval: 0.17-0.32) for full iBOX and 0.24 (95% confidence interval: 0.16-0.32) for abbreviated iBOX, indicating statistically significantly higher c-statistic values for the iBOX prognosis of death-censored graft survival. Mean (± standard error) c-statistics were 0.81 ± 0.03 for full iBOX, 0.80 ± 0.03 for abbreviated iBOX, and 0.57 ± 0.03 for BPAR. In calibration analyses, predicted graft loss events from both iBOX models were not significantly different from those observed. However, for BPAR, the predicted events were significantly (P < .01) different (observed: 64; predicted: 70; full iBOX: 76; abbreviated iBOX: 173 BPAR). IBOX at 1-year posttransplant is superior to BPAR in the first year posttransplant in graft loss prognostic performance, providing valuable additional information and facilitating the demonstration of superiority of novel immunosuppressive regimens.

B Cell-mediated Immune Regulation and the Quest for Transplantation Tolerance.

Pathophysiologic function of B cells in graft rejection has been well recognized in transplantation. B cells promote alloantigen-specific T-cell response and secrete antibodies that can cause antibody-mediated graft failures and rejections. Therefore, strategies targeting B cells, for example, B-cell depletion, have been used for the prevention of both acute and chronic rejections. Interestingly, however, recent mounting evidence indicates that subsets of B cells yet to be further identified can display potent immune regulatory functions, and they contribute to transplantation tolerance and operational tolerance in both experimental and clinical settings, respectively. In this review, we integrate currently available information on B-cell subsets, including T-cell Ig domain and mucin domain 1-positive transitional and T-cell immunoreceptor with Ig and immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif domain-positive memory B cells, displaying immune regulatory functions, with a focus on transplantation tolerance, by analyzing their mechanisms of action. In addition, we will discuss potential T-cell Ig domain and mucin domain 1-positive and T-cell immunoreceptor with Ig and immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif domain-positive B cell-based strategies for the enhancement of operational tolerance in transplantation patients.

A Machine Learning-Driven Virtual Biopsy System For Kidney Transplant Patients.

In kidney transplantation, day-zero biopsies are used to assess organ quality and discriminate between donor-inherited lesions and those acquired post-transplantation. However, many centers do not perform such biopsies since they are invasive, costly and may delay the transplant procedure. We aim to generate a non-invasive virtual biopsy system using routinely collected donor parameters. Using 14,032 day-zero kidney biopsies from 17 international centers, we develop a virtual biopsy system. 11 basic donor parameters are used to predict four Banff kidney lesions: arteriosclerosis, arteriolar hyalinosis, interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy, and the percentage of renal sclerotic glomeruli. Six machine learning models are aggregated into an ensemble model. The virtual biopsy system shows good performance in the internal and external validation sets. We confirm the generalizability of the system in various scenarios. This system could assist physicians in assessing organ quality, optimizing allograft allocation together with discriminating between donor derived and acquired lesions post-transplantation.

Outcomes of Kidney Transplantation in Patients That Underwent Bariatric Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

The impact of bariatric surgery (BS) on kidney transplantation (KT) outcomes in patients with obesity remains controversial. We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for studies reporting outcomes of KT recipients that underwent prior BS. Common/random effects meta-analyses were performed to obtain summary ratios of the postoperative outcomes. Eighteen eligible studies involving 315 patients were identified. Sleeve gastrectomy was the most common BS type (65.7%) followed by Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (27.6%) and gastric banding (4.4%). Across studies that provided the data, the %excess weight loss from BS to KT was 62.79% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.01-73.56; range, 46.2%-80.3%). The rates of delayed graft function and acute rejection were 16% (95% CI, 7%-28%) and 16% (95% CI, 11%-23%) in 14 and 11 studies that provided this data, respectively. The rates of wound, urinary, and vascular complications following KT were 5% (95% CI, 0%-13%),19% (95% CI, 2%-42%), and 2% (95% CI, 0%-5%), in 12, 9, and 11 studies that provided this data, respectively. Follow-up time after KT was reported in 11 studies (61.1%) and ranged from 16 mo to >5 y. Graft loss was reported in 14 studies with an average of 3% (95% CI, 1%-6%). Four studies that included a comparator group of patients with obesity who did not undergo BS before KT showed comparable outcomes between the groups. We conclude that currently there is a paucity of robust evidence to suggest that pretransplant BS has a major effect on post-KT outcomes. High-quality studies are needed to fully evaluate the impact of BS on KT outcomes.

The Banff 2022 Kidney Meeting Work Plan: Data-driven refinement of the Banff Classification for renal allografts.

The XVIth Banff Meeting for Allograft Pathology was held in Banff, Alberta, Canada, from September 19 to 23, 2022, as a joint meeting with the Canadian Society of Transplantation. In addition to a key focus on the impact of microvascular inflammation and biopsy-based transcript analysis on the Banff Classification, further sessions were devoted to other aspects of kidney transplant pathology, in particular T cell-mediated rejection, activity and chronicity indices, digital pathology, xenotransplantation, clinical trials, and surrogate endpoints. Although the output of these sessions has not led to any changes in the classification, the key role of Banff Working Groups in phrasing unanswered questions, and coordinating and disseminating results of investigations addressing these unanswered questions was emphasized. This paper summarizes the key Banff Meeting 2022 sessions not covered in the Banff Kidney Meeting 2022 Report paper and also provides an update on other Banff Working Group activities relevant to kidney allografts.

Impact of pancreas transplantation alone on kidney function: A multicenter clinical cohort study.

Pancreas transplantation alone (PTA) is a ß cell replacement option for selected patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus; concerns have been raised regarding deterioration in kidney function (KF) after PTA. This retrospective multicenter study assessed actual impact of transplantation and immunosuppression on KF in PTA recipients at three Transplant Centers. The primary composite endpoint 10 years after PTA was >50% eGFR decline, eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , and/or receiving a kidney transplant (KT). Overall, 822 PTA recipients met eligibility. Median baseline and 10-year eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2 ) were 76.3 (58.1-100.8) and 51.3 (35.3-65.9), respectively. Primary composite endpoint occurred in 98 patients (53.5%) with 45 experiencing a >50% decrease in eGFR by 10 years post-transplant, 38 eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 49 requiring KT. KF declined most significantly within 6 months post-PTA, more often in females and patients with better preserved GFR up to 5 years with 11.6% kidney failure at 10 years. Patient survival and death-censored graft survival were both 68% at 10 years with overall graft thrombosis rate 8%. KF declined initially after PTA but stabilized with further slow progression. In conclusion, prospective intervention studies are needed to test renal sparing interventions while gathering more granular data.

Exploring the single-cell immune landscape of kidney allograft inflammation using imaging mass cytometry.

Kidney allograft inflammation, mostly attributed to rejection and infection, is an important cause of graft injury and loss. Standard histopathological assessment of allograft inflammation provides limited insights into biological processes and the immune landscape. Here, using imaging mass cytometry with a panel of 28 validated biomarkers, we explored the single-cell landscape of kidney allograft inflammation in 32 kidney transplant biopsies and 247 high-dimensional histopathology images of various phenotypes of allograft inflammation (antibody-mediated rejection, T cell-mediated rejection, BK nephropathy, and chronic pyelonephritis). Using novel analytical tools, for cell segmentation, we segmented over 900 000 cells and developed a tissue-based classifier using over 3000 manually annotated kidney microstructures (glomeruli, tubules, interstitium, and arteries). Using PhenoGraph, we identified 11 immune and 9 nonimmune clusters and found a high prevalence of memory T cell and macrophage-enriched immune populations across phenotypes. Additionally, we trained a machine learning classifier to identify spatial biomarkers that could discriminate between the different allograft inflammatory phenotypes. Further validation of imaging mass cytometry in larger cohorts and with more biomarkers will likely help interrogate kidney allograft inflammation in more depth than has been possible to date.

Isatuximab Monotherapy for Desensitization in Highly Sensitized Patients Awaiting Kidney Transplant.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: There is no standardized desensitization regimen for kidney transplant candidates. CD38, expressed by plasma cells, could be targeted for desensitization to deplete plasma cells producing alloantibodies and donor-specific antibodies. Few studies and case reports are available regarding the use of CD38 antibodies for desensitization in patients awaiting kidney transplant. This study shows that isatuximab, a CD38-targeting therapy, was well tolerated in kidney transplant candidates, with a durable decrease in anti-HLA antibodies and partial desensitization activity. The short treatment period and long follow-up of this study allowed for the understanding of the mechanism and timing for any antibody rebound. Isatuximab could be further investigated as an option for adjunct therapy to existing desensitization for patients on the kidney transplant waitlist. BACKGROUND: Patients with calculated panel reactive antibody (cPRA) ≥80.00%, particularly those with cPRA ≥99.90%, are considered highly sensitized and underserved by the Kidney Allocation System. Desensitization removes circulating reactive antibodies and/or suppresses antibody production to increase the chances of a negative crossmatch. CD38 is expressed highly on plasma cells, thus is a potential target for desensitization. METHODS: This was an open-label single-arm phase 1/2 study investigating the safety, pharmacokinetics, and preliminary efficacy of isatuximab in patients awaiting kidney transplantation. There were two cohorts, cohorts A and B, which enrolled cPRA ≥99.90% and 80.00% to <99.90%, respectively. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients (12 cohort A, 11 cohort B) received isatuximab 10 mg/kg weekly for 4 weeks then every 2 weeks for 8 weeks. Isatuximab was well tolerated with pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles that indicated similar exposure to multiple myeloma trials. It resulted in decreases in CD38 + plasmablasts, plasma cells, and NK cells and significant reductions in HLA-specific IgG-producing memory B cells. Overall response rate, on the basis of a predefined composite desensitization end point, was 83.3% and 81.8% in cohorts A and B. Most responders had decreases in anti-HLA antibodies that were maintained for 26 weeks after the last dose. Overall, cPRA values were minimally affected, however, with only 9/23 patients (39%) having cPRA decreases to target levels. By study cutoff (median follow-up of 68 weeks), six patients received transplant offers, of which four were accepted. CONCLUSIONS: In this open-label trial, isatuximab was well tolerated and resulted in a durable decrease in anti-HLA antibodies with partial desensitization activity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04294459 .

Qualifying a Novel Clinical Trial Endpoint (iBOX) Predictive of Long-Term Kidney Transplant Outcomes.

New immunosuppressive therapies that improve long-term graft survival are needed in kidney transplant. Critical Path Institute's Transplant Therapeutics Consortium received a qualification opinion for the iBOX Scoring System as a novel secondary efficacy endpoint for kidney transplant clinical trials through European Medicines Agency's qualification of novel methodologies for drug development. This is the first qualified endpoint for any transplant indication and is now available for use in kidney transplant clinical trials. Although the current efficacy failure endpoint has typically shown the noninferiority of therapeutic regimens, the iBOX Scoring System can be used to demonstrate the superiority of a new immunosuppressive therapy compared to the standard of care from 6 months to 24 months posttransplant in pivotal or exploratory drug therapeutic studies.

Qualifying a novel clinical trial endpoint (iBOX) predictive of long-term kidney transplant outcomes.

New immunosuppressive therapies that improve long-term graft survival are needed in kidney transplant. Critical Path Institute's Transplant Therapeutics Consortium received a qualification opinion for the iBOX Scoring System as a novel secondary efficacy endpoint for kidney transplant clinical trials through European Medicines Agency's qualification of novel methodologies for drug development. This is the first qualified endpoint for any transplant indication and is now available for use in kidney transplant clinical trials. Although the current efficacy failure endpoint has typically shown the noninferiority of therapeutic regimens, the iBOX Scoring System can be used to demonstrate the superiority of a new immunosuppressive therapy compared to the standard of care from 6 months to 24 months posttransplant in pivotal or exploratory drug therapeutic studies.

Characterizing the risk of human leukocyte antigen-incompatible living donor kidney transplantation in older recipients.

Older compatible living donor kidney transplant (CLDKT) recipients have higher mortality and death-censored graft failure (DCGF) compared to younger recipients. These risks may be amplified in older incompatible living donor kidney transplant (ILDKT) recipients who undergo desensitization and intense immunosuppression. In a 25-center cohort of ILDKT recipients transplanted between September 24, 1997, and December 15, 2016, we compared mortality, DCGF, delayed graft function (DGF), acute rejection (AR), and length of stay (LOS) between 234 older (age ≥60 years) and 1172 younger (age 18-59 years) recipients. To investigate whether the impact of age was different for ILDKT recipients compared to 17 542 CLDKT recipients, we used an interaction term to determine whether the relationship between posttransplant outcomes and transplant type (ILDKT vs CLDKT) was modified by age. Overall, older recipients had higher mortality (hazard ratio: 1.632.072.65, P < .001), lower DCGF (hazard ratio: 0.360.530.77, P = .001), and AR (odds ratio: 0.390.540.74, P < .001), and similar DGF (odds ratio: 0.461.032.33, P = .9) and LOS (incidence rate ratio: 0.880.981.10, P = 0.8) compared to younger recipients. The impact of age on mortality (interaction P = .052), DCGF (interaction P = .7), AR interaction P = .2), DGF (interaction P = .9), and LOS (interaction P = .5) were similar in ILDKT and CLDKT recipients. Age alone should not preclude eligibility for ILDKT.

Longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modeling in long-term renal function to inform clinical trial design in kidney transplantation.

Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for individuals with end-stage kidney disease. From a modeling perspective, our understanding of kidney function trajectories after transplantation remains limited. Current modeling of kidney function post-transplantation is focused on linear slopes or percent decline and often excludes the highly variable early timepoints post-transplantation, where kidney function recovers and then stabilizes. Using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a well-known biomarker of kidney function, from an aggregated dataset of 4904 kidney transplant patients including both observational studies and clinical trials, we developed a longitudinal model of kidney function trajectories from time of transplant to 6 years post-transplant. Our model is a nonlinear, mixed-effects model built in NONMEM that captured both the recovery phase after kidney transplantation, where the graft recovers function, and the long-term phase of stabilization and slow decline. Model fit was assessed using diagnostic plots and individual fits. Model performance, assessed via visual predictive checks, suggests accurate model predictions of eGFR at the median and lower 95% quantiles of eGFR, ranges which are of critical clinical importance for assessing loss of kidney function. Various clinically relevant covariates were also explored and found to improve the model. For example, transplant recipients of deceased donors recover function more slowly after transplantation and calcineurin inhibitor use promotes faster long-term decay. Our work provides a generalizable, nonlinear model of kidney allograft function that will be useful for estimating eGFR up to 6 years post-transplant in various clinically relevant populations.

Age-Based Versus Young-Adult Thresholds for Nephrosclerosis on Kidney Biopsy and Prognostic Implications for CKD.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Nephrosclerosis (glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis, and tubular atrophy) is the defining pathology of both kidney aging and CKD. Optimal thresholds for nephrosclerosis that identify persons with a progressive disease are unknown. This study determined a young-age threshold (18-29 years) and age-based 95th percentile thresholds for nephrosclerosis on the basis of morphometry of kidney biopsy sections from normotensive living kidney donors. These thresholds were 7.1-fold to 36-fold higher in older (70 years or older) versus younger (aged 18-29 years) normotensive donors. Age-based thresholds, but not young-age threshold, were prognostic for determining risk of progressive CKD among patients who underwent a radical nephrectomy or a for-cause native kidney biopsy, suggesting that age-based thresholds are more useful than a single young-age threshold for identifying CKD on biopsy. BACKGROUND: Nephrosclerosis, defined by globally sclerotic glomeruli (GSG) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA), is a pathology of both kidney aging and CKD. A comparison of risk of progressive CKD using aged-based thresholds for nephrosclerosis versus a single young-adult threshold is needed. METHODS: We conducted morphometric analyses of kidney biopsy images for %GSG, %IFTA, and IFTA foci density among 3020 living kidney donors, 1363 patients with kidney tumor, and 314 patients with native kidney disease. Using normotensive donors, we defined young-age thresholds (18-29 years) and age-based (roughly by decade) 95th percentile thresholds. We compared age-adjusted risk of progressive CKD (kidney failure or 40% decline in eGFR) between nephrosclerosis that was "normal compared with young," "normal for age but abnormal compared with young," and "abnormal for age" in patients with tumor and patients with kidney disease. RESULTS: The 95th percentiles in the youngest group (18-29 years) to the oldest group (70 years or older) ranged from 1.7% to 16% for %GSG, 0.18% to 6.5% for %IFTA, and 8.2 to 59.3 per cm 2 for IFTA foci density. Risk of progressive CKD did not differ between persons with nephrosclerosis "normal compared with young" versus "normal for age but abnormal compared with young." Risk of progressive CKD was significantly higher with %GSG, %IFTA, or IFTA foci density that was abnormal versus normal for age in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Given that increased risk of progressive CKD occurs only when nephrosclerosis is abnormal for age, age-based thresholds for nephrosclerosis seem to be better than a single young-age threshold for identifying clinically relevant CKD.

Race-free estimated glomerular filtration rate equation in kidney transplant recipients: development and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of a newly developed race-free kidney recipient specific glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equation with the three current main equations for measuring GFR in kidney transplant recipients. DESIGN: Development and validation study SETTING: 17 cohorts in Europe, the United States, and Australia (14 transplant centres, three clinical trials). PARTICIPANTS: 15 489 adults (3622 in development cohort (Necker, Saint Louis, and Toulouse hospitals, France), 11 867 in multiple external validation cohorts) who received kidney transplants between 1 January 2000 and 1 January 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was GFR, measured according to local practice. Performance of the GFR equations was assessed using P30 (proportion of estimated GFR (eGFR) within 30% of measured GFR (mGFR)) and correct classification (agreement between eGFR and mGFR according to GFR stages). The race-free equation, based on creatinine level, age, and sex, was developed using additive and multiplicative linear regressions, and its performance was compared with the three current main GFR equations: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2009 equation, and race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation. RESULTS: The study included 15 489 participants, with 50 464 mGFR and eGFR values. The mean GFR was 53.18 mL/min/1.73m2 (SD 17.23) in the development cohort and 55.90 mL/min/1.73m2 (19.69) in the external validation cohorts. Among the current GFR equations, the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation showed the lowest performance compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009 equations. When race was included in the kidney recipient specific GFR equation, performance did not increase. The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation showed significantly improved performance compared with the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation and performed well in the external validation cohorts (P30 ranging from 73.0% to 91.3%). The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation performed well in several subpopulations of kidney transplant recipients stratified by race (P30 73.0-91.3%), sex (72.7-91.4%), age (70.3-92.0%), body mass index (64.5-100%), donor type (58.5-92.9%), donor age (68.3-94.3%), treatment (78.5-85.2%), creatinine level (72.8-91.3%), GFR measurement method (73.0-91.3%), and timing of GFR measurement post-transplant (72.9-95.5%). An online application was developed that estimates GFR based on recipient's creatinine level, age, and sex (https://transplant-prediction-system.shinyapps.io/eGFR_equation_KTX/). CONCLUSION: A new race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation was developed and validated using multiple, large, international cohorts of kidney transplant recipients. The equation showed high accuracy and outperformed the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation that was developed in individuals with native kidneys. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05229939.

Multiple abnormal peripheral blood gene expression assay results are correlated with subsequent graft loss after kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to correlate peripheral blood gene expression profile (GEP) results during the first post-transplant year with outcomes after kidney transplantation. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicenter observational study of obtaining peripheral blood at five timepoints during the first post-transplant year to perform a GEP assay. The cohort was stratified based on the pattern of the peripheral blood GEP results: Tx-all GEP results normal, 1 Not-TX had one GEP result abnormal and >1 Not-TX two or more abnormal GEP results. We correlated the GEP results with outcomes after transplantation. RESULTS: We enrolled 240 kidney transplant recipients. The cohort was stratified into the three groups: TX n = 117 (47%), 1 Not-TX n = 59 (25%) and >1 Not-TX n = 64 (27%). Compared to the TX group, the >1 Not-TX group had lower eGFR (p < .001) and more chronic changes on 1-year surveillance biopsy (p = .007). Death censored graft survival showed inferior graft survival in the >1 Not-TX group (p < .001) but not in the 1 Not-TX group. All graft losses in the >1 Not-TX group occurred after 1-year post-transplant. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a pattern of persistently Not-TX GEP assay correlates with inferior graft survival.

An Improved Method for Estimating Nephron Number and the Association of Resulting Nephron Number Estimates with Chronic Kidney Disease Outcomes.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Nephron number currently can be estimated only from glomerular density on a kidney biopsy combined with cortical volume from kidney imaging. Because of measurement biases, refinement of this approach and validation across different patient populations have been needed. The prognostic importance of nephron number also has been unclear. The authors present an improved method of estimating nephron number that corrects for several biases, resulting in a 27% higher nephron number estimate for donor kidneys compared with a prior method. After accounting for comorbidities, the new nephron number estimate does not differ between kidney donors and kidney patients with tumor and shows consistent associations with clinical characteristics across these two populations. The findings also indicate that low nephron number predicts CKD independent of biopsy and clinical characteristics in both populations. BACKGROUND: Nephron number can be estimated from glomerular density and cortical volume. However, because of measurement biases, this approach needs refinement, comparison between disparate populations, and evaluation as a predictor of CKD outcomes. METHODS: We studied 3020 living kidney donors and 1354 patients who underwent radical nephrectomy for tumor. We determined cortex volume of the retained kidney from presurgical imaging and glomerular density by morphometric analysis of needle core biopsy of the donated kidney and wedge sections of the removed kidney. Glomerular density was corrected for missing glomerular tufts, absence of the kidney capsule, and then tissue shrinkage on the basis of analysis of 30 autopsy kidneys. We used logistic regression (in donors) and Cox proportional hazard models (in patients with tumor) to assess the risk of CKD outcomes associated with nephron number. RESULTS: Donors had 1.17 million nephrons per kidney; patients with tumor had 0.99 million nephrons per kidney. A lower nephron number was associated with older age, female sex, shorter height, hypertension, family history of ESKD, lower GFR, and proteinuria. After adjusting for these characteristics, nephron number did not differ between donors and patients with tumor. Low nephron number (defined by <5th or <10th percentile by age and sex in a healthy subset) in both populations predicted future risk of CKD outcomes independent of biopsy and clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with an older method for estimating nephron number, a new method that addresses several sources of bias results in nephron number estimates that are 27% higher in donors and 1% higher in patients with tumor and shows consistency between two populations. Low nephron number independently predicts CKD in both populations.