The Predictive Utility of Valuing the Future for Smoking Cessation: Findings from the ITC 4 Country Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Delay discounting (DD) and time perspective (TP) are conceptually related constructs that are theorized as important determinants of the pursuit of future outcomes over present inclinations. This study explores their predictive relationships for smoking cessation. METHODS: 5006 daily smokers at a baseline wave provided 6710 paired observations of quitting activity between two waves. Data are from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) smoking and vaping surveys with samples from the USA, Canada, England, and Australia, across three waves conducted in 2016, 2018 and 2020. Smokers were assessed for TP and DD, plus smoking-specific predictors at one wave of cessation outcomes defined as either making a quit attempt and/or success among those who tried to quit which was ascertained at the subsequent survey wave. RESULTS: TP and DD were essentially uncorrelated. TP predicted making quit attempts, both on its own and controlling for other potential predictors but was negatively associated with quit success. By contrast, DD was not related to making quit attempts, but high DD predicted relapse. The presence of financial stress at baseline resulted in some moderation of effects. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the mechanisms of action of TP and DD can advance our understanding of, and ability to enhance, goal-directed behavioural change. TP appears to contribute to future intention formation, but not necessarily practical thought of how to achieve goals. DD is more likely an index of capacity to effectively generate competing future possibilities in response to immediate gratification.

Effects of 6-month episodic future thinking training on delay discounting, weight loss and HbA1c changes in individuals with prediabetes.

People with prediabetes are at risk for type 2 diabetes. They may discount the future delay discounting (DD), and not engage in preventive health behaviors. Episodic future thinking (EFT) can reduce DD when future scenarios are cued, but research is needed to assess long-term effects of EFT and when EFT is not cued. This study tested EFT training compared to control for people with prediabetes enrolled in a 6-month weight loss program on DD, weight, HbA1c, and physical activity. Results showed a reliable EFT effect on reducing DD in cued (p = 0.0035), and uncued DD tasks (p = 0.048), and significant overall changes in weight (p < 0.001), HbA1c (p, 0.001) and physical activity (p = 0.003), but no significant differences in these outcomes by group (p's > 0.05). Sixty-eight percent of the sample ended below the prediabetes HbA1c range. These results suggest that DD can be modified over extended periods, and the effects of EFT can be observed without EFT cues. However, these data do not suggest that changes in weight, HbA1c or physical activity were due to EFT training. The study was initiated before the COVID-19 pandemic which provided the opportunity to compare differences for people treated in-person or remotely. Analyses showed no differences in DD, weight, HBA1c or physical activity outcomes were observed between in-person and remote treatment, suggesting telehealth is a scalable approach to treating prediabetes.

Role of delay discounting in predicting change in HBA1c for individuals with prediabetes.

The majority of people with prediabetes transition to type 2 diabetes. Weight gain is a known predictor of increasing the risk of diabetes, but another reason may be a focus on immediate rewards and discounting of the future. Delay discounting (DD: devaluation of future consequences) is related to obesity and poor glycemic control in persons with type 2 diabetes. This study was designed to assess whether changes in DD are associated with HbA1c change beyond BMI change in individuals with prediabetes. Hierarchical regression showed changes in BMI (p = 0.008) and the $1000 DD task (p = 0.04) were associated with HbA1c change beyond demographic characteristics, with the full model accounting for 25.8% of the variance. Those with greater BMI increases and greater increases in discounting of the future showed the greatest increases in HbA1c. DD represents a novel target to prevent progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes.