ABSTRACT
BackgroundSeveral outpatient COVID-19 therapies have reduced hospitalization in randomized controlled trials. The choice of therapy may depend on drug efficacy, toxicity, pricing, availability, and access to administration infrastructure. To facilitate comparative decision making, we evaluated the efficacy of each treatment in clinical trials and then estimated the associated cost per hospitalization prevented. MethodsWherever possible, we obtained relative risk for hospitalization from published randomized controlled trials. Otherwise, we extracted data from press releases, conference abstracts, government submissions, or preprints. If more than one study was published, the results were meta-analyzed. Using relative risk, we estimated the number needed to treat (NNT), assuming a baseline hospitalization risk of 5%. Drug pricing was based on Canadian formularies, government purchases, or manufacturer estimates. Administrative and societal costs were not included. Results will be updated online as new studies emerge or final publication numbers become available. ResultsAt a 5% risk of hospitalization the estimated NNTs were: 87 for colchicine, 80 for fluvoxamine, 72 for inhaled corticosteroids, 24 for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, 25 for sotrovimab, 24 for remdesivir, 29 for casirivimab/imdevimab, 29 for bamlanivimab/etesevimab and 52 for molnupiravir. Colchicine, fluvoxamine, inhaled corticosteroids, and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir had cost per hospitalization prevented point estimates below the CIHI estimated cost of hospitalization ($23000). InterpretationCanada is fortunate to have access to several effective outpatient therapies to prevent COVID-19 hospitalization. Given differences in efficacy, toxicity, cost and administration complexities, this assessment serves as one tool to help guide policy makers and clinicians in their treatment selection.
