Accuracy of Tau Positron Emission Tomography as a Prognostic Marker in Preclinical and Prodromal Alzheimer Disease: A Head-to-Head Comparison Against Amyloid Positron Emission Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Importance: Tau positron emission tomography (PET) tracers have proven useful for the differential diagnosis of dementia, but their utility for predicting cognitive change is unclear. Objective: To examine the prognostic accuracy of baseline fluorine 18 (18F)-flortaucipir and [18F]RO948 (tau) PET in individuals across the Alzheimer disease (AD) clinical spectrum and to perform a head-to-head comparison against established magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and amyloid PET markers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study collected data from 8 cohorts in South Korea, Sweden, and the US from June 1, 2014, to February 28, 2021, with a mean (SD) follow-up of 1.9 (0.8) years. A total of 1431 participants were recruited from memory clinics, clinical trials, or cohort studies; 673 were cognitively unimpaired (CU group; 253 [37.6%] positive for amyloid-ß [Aß]), 443 had mild cognitive impairment (MCI group; 271 [61.2%] positive for Aß), and 315 had a clinical diagnosis of AD dementia (315 [100%] positive for Aß). Exposures: [18F]Flortaucipir PET in the discovery cohort (n = 1135) or [18F]RO948 PET in the replication cohort (n = 296), T1-weighted MRI (n = 1431), and amyloid PET (n = 1329) at baseline and repeated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) evaluation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Baseline [18F]flortaucipir/[18F]RO948 PET retention within a temporal region of interest, MRI-based AD-signature cortical thickness, and amyloid PET Centiloids were used to predict changes in MMSE using linear mixed-effects models adjusted for age, sex, education, and cohort. Mediation/interaction analyses tested whether associations between baseline tau PET and cognitive change were mediated by baseline MRI measures and whether age, sex, and APOE genotype modified these associations. Results: Among 1431 participants, the mean (SD) age was 71.2 (8.8) years; 751 (52.5%) were male. Findings for [18F]flortaucipir PET predicted longitudinal changes in MMSE, and effect sizes were stronger than for AD-signature cortical thickness and amyloid PET across all participants (R2, 0.35 [tau PET] vs 0.24 [MRI] vs 0.17 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference) in the Aß-positive MCI group (R2, 0.25 [tau PET] vs 0.15 [MRI] vs 0.07 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference) and in the Aß-positive CU group (R2, 0.16 [tau PET] vs 0.08 [MRI] vs 0.08 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference). These findings were replicated in the [18F]RO948 PET cohort. MRI mediated the association between [18F]flortaucipir PET and MMSE in the groups with AD dementia (33.4% [95% CI, 15.5%-60.0%] of the total effect) and Aß-positive MCI (13.6% [95% CI, 0.0%-28.0%] of the total effect), but not the Aß-positive CU group (3.7% [95% CI, -17.5% to 39.0%]; P = .71). Age (t = -2.28; P = .02), but not sex (t = 0.92; P = .36) or APOE genotype (t = 1.06; P = .29) modified the association between baseline [18F]flortaucipir PET and cognitive change, such that older individuals showed faster cognitive decline at similar tau PET levels. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this prognostic study suggest that tau PET is a promising tool for predicting cognitive change that is superior to amyloid PET and MRI and may support the prognostic process in preclinical and prodromal stages of AD.

The impact of demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables on tau PET status.

PURPOSE: A substantial proportion of amyloid-ß (Aß)+ patients with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are tau PET-negative, while some clinically diagnosed non-AD neurodegenerative disorder (non-AD) patients or cognitively unimpaired (CU) subjects are tau PET-positive. We investigated which demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables contributed to tau PET status. METHODS: We included 2338 participants (430 Aß+ AD dementia, 381 Aß+ MCI, 370 non-AD, and 1157 CU) who underwent [18F]flortaucipir (n = 1944) or [18F]RO948 (n = 719) PET. Tau PET positivity was determined in the entorhinal cortex, temporal meta-ROI, and Braak V-VI regions using previously established cutoffs. We performed bivariate binary logistic regression models with tau PET status (positive/negative) as dependent variable and age, sex, APOEε4, Aß status (only in CU and non-AD analyses), MMSE, global white matter hyperintensities (WMH), and AD-signature cortical thickness as predictors. Additionally, we performed multivariable binary logistic regression models to account for all other predictors in the same model. RESULTS: Tau PET positivity in the temporal meta-ROI was 88.6% for AD dementia, 46.5% for MCI, 9.5% for non-AD, and 6.1% for CU. Among Aß+ participants with AD dementia and MCI, lower age, MMSE score, and AD-signature cortical thickness showed the strongest associations with tau PET positivity. In non-AD and CU participants, presence of Aß was the strongest predictor of a positive tau PET scan. CONCLUSION: We identified several demographic, clinical, and neurobiological factors that are important to explain the variance in tau PET retention observed across the AD pathological continuum, non-AD neurodegenerative disorders, and cognitively unimpaired persons.