Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Immunogenicity, effectiveness, and safety of measles vaccination in infants younger than 9 months: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Measles is an important cause of death in children, despite the availability of safe and cost-saving measles-containing vaccines (MCVs). The first MCV dose (MCV1) is recommended at 9 months of age in countries with ongoing measles transmission, and at 12 months in countries with low risk of measles. To assess whether bringing forward the age of MCV1 is beneficial, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the benefits and risks of MCV1 in infants younger than 9 months. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Proquest, Global Health, the WHO library database, and the WHO Institutional Repository for Information Sharing database, and consulted experts. We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials, outbreak investigations, and cohort and case-control studies without restriction on publication dates, in which MCV1 was administered to infants younger than 9 months. We did the literature search on June 2, 2015, and updated it on Jan 14, 2019. We assessed: proportion of infants seroconverted, geometric mean antibody titre, avidity, cellular immunity, duration of immunity, vaccine efficacy, vaccine effectiveness, and safety. We used random-effects models to derive pooled estimates of the endpoints, where appropriate. We assessed methodological quality using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation guidelines. FINDINGS: Our search identified 1156 studies, of which 1071 were screened for eligibility. 351 were eligible for full-text screening, and data from 56 studies that met all inclusion criteria were used for analysis. The proportion of infants who seroconverted increased from 50% (95% CI 29-71) for those vaccinated with MCV1 at 4 months of age to 85% (69-97) for those were vaccinated at 8 months. The pooled geometric mean titre ratio for infants aged 4-8 months vaccinated with MCV1 compared with infants vaccinated with MCV1 at age 9 months or older was 0·46 (95% CI 0·33-0·66; I2=99·9%, p<0·0001). Only one study reported on avidity and suggested that there was lower avidity and a shorter duration of immunity following MCV1 administration at 6 months of age than at 9 months of age (p=0·0016) or 12 months of age (p<0·001). No effect of age at MCV1 administration on cellular immunity was found. One study reported that vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed measles virus infection was 94% (95% CI 74-98) in infants vaccinated with MCV1 at 4·5 months of age. The pooled vaccine effectiveness of MCV1 in infants younger than 9 months against measles was 58% (95% CI 9-80; I2=84·9%, p<0·0001). The pooled vaccine effectiveness estimate from within-study comparisons of infants younger than 9 months vaccinated with MCV1 were 51% (95% CI -44 to 83; I2=92·3%, p<0·0001), and for those aged 9 months and older at vaccination it was 83% (76-88; I2=93·8%, p<0·0001). No differences in the risk of adverse events after MCV1 administration were found between infants younger than 9 months and those aged 9 months of older. Overall, the quality of evidence ranged from moderate to very low. INTERPRETATION: MCV1 administered to infants younger than 9 months induces a good immune response, whereby the proportion of infants seroconverted increases with increased age at vaccination. A large proportion of infants receiving MCV1 before 9 months of age are protected and the vaccine is safe, although higher antibody titres and vaccine effectiveness are found when MCV1 is administered at older ages. Recommending MCV1 administration to infants younger than 9 months for those at high risk of measles is an important step towards reducing measles-related mortality and morbidity. FUNDING: WHO.

Effect of measles vaccination in infants younger than 9 months on the immune response to subsequent measles vaccine doses: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vaccinating infants with a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) before 9 months of age in high-risk settings has the potential to reduce measles-related morbidity and mortality. However, there is concern that early vaccination might blunt the immune response to subsequent measles vaccine doses. We systematically reviewed the available evidence on the effect of MCV1 administration to infants younger than 9 months on their immune responses to subsequent MCV doses. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched for randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials, outbreak investigations, and cohort and case-control studies without restriction on publication dates, in which MCV1 was administered to infants younger than 9 months. We did the literature search on June 2, 2015, and updated it on Jan 14, 2019. We included studies reporting data on strength or duration of humoral and cellular immune responses, and on vaccine efficacy or vaccine effectiveness after two-dose or three-dose MCV schedules. Our outcome measures were proportion of seropositive infants, geometric mean titre, vaccine efficacy, vaccine effectiveness, antibody avidity index, and T-cell stimulation index. We used random-effects meta-analysis to derive pooled estimates of the outcomes, where appropriate. We assessed the methodological quality of included studies using Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines. FINDINGS: Our search retrieved 1156 records and 85 were excluded due to duplication. 1071 records were screened for eligibility, of which 351 were eligible for full-text screening and 21 were eligible for inclusion in the review. From 13 studies, the pooled proportion of infants seropositive after two MCV doses, with MCV1 administered before 9 months of age, was 98% (95% CI 96-99; I2=79·8%, p<0·0001), which was not significantly different from seropositivity after a two-dose MCV schedule starting later (p=0·087). Only one of four studies found geometric mean titres after MCV2 administration to be significantly lower when MCV1 was administered before 9 months of age than at 9 months of age or later. There was insufficient evidence to determine an effect of age at MCV1 administration on antibody avidity. The pooled vaccine effectiveness estimate derived from two studies of a two-dose MCV schedule with MCV1 vaccination before 9 months of age was 95% (95% CI 89-100; I2=12·6%, p=0·29). Seven studies reporting on measles virus-specific cellular immune responses found that T-cell responses and T-cell memory were sustained, irrespective of the age of MCV1 administration. Overall, the quality of evidence was moderate to very low. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that administering MCV1 to infants younger than 9 months followed by additional MCV doses results in high seropositivity, vaccine effectiveness, and T-cell responses, which are independent of the age at MCV1, supporting the vaccination of very young infants in high-risk settings. However, we also found some evidence that MCV1 administered to infants younger than 9 months resulted in lower antibody titres after one or two subsequent doses of MCV than when measles vaccination is started at age 9 months or older. The clinical and public-health relevance of this immunity blunting effect are uncertain. FUNDING: WHO.

Development of a District-Level Programmatic Assessment Tool for Risk of Measles Virus Transmission.

All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have now set goals for measles elimination by or before 2020. To prioritize measles elimination efforts and use available resources efficiently, there is a need to identify at-risk areas that are offtrack from meeting performance targets and require strengthening of programmatic efforts. This article describes the development of a WHO measles programmatic risk assessment tool to be used for monitoring, guiding, and sustaining measles elimination efforts at the subnational level. We outline the tool development process; the tool specifications and requirements for data inputs; the framework of risk categories, indicators, and scoring; and the risk category assignment. Overall risk was assessed as a function of indicator scores that fall into four main categories: population immunity, surveillance quality, program performance, and threat assessment. On the basis of the overall score, the tool assigns each district a risk of either low, medium, high, or very high. The cut-off criteria for the risk assignment categories were based on the distribution of scores from all possible combinations of individual indicator cutoffs. The results may be used for advocacy to communicate risk to policymakers, mobilize resources for corrective actions, manage population immunity, and prioritize programmatic activities. Ongoing evaluation of indicators will be needed to evaluate programmatic performance and plan risk mitigation activities effectively. The availability of a comprehensive tool that can identify at-risk districts will enhance efforts to prioritize resources and implement strategies for achieving the Global Vaccine Action Plan goals for measles elimination.

Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2015.

Adopted in 2000, United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 set a target to reduce child mortality by two thirds by 2015, with measles vaccination coverage as one of the progress indicators. In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per 1 million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (1,2).* In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan† with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. Countries in all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. Measles elimination is the absence of endemic measles transmission in a region or other defined geographical area for ≥12 months in the presence of a well performing surveillance system. This report updates a previous report (3) and describes progress toward global measles control milestones and regional measles elimination goals during 2000-2015. During this period, annual reported measles incidence decreased 75%, from 146 to 36 cases per 1 million persons, and annual estimated measles deaths decreased 79%, from 651,600 to 134,200. However, none of the 2015 milestones or elimination goals were met. Countries and their partners need to act urgently to secure political commitment, raise the visibility of measles, increase vaccination coverage, strengthen surveillance, and mitigate the threat of decreasing resources for immunization once polio eradication is achieved.

Real-Time Monitoring of Vaccination Campaign Performance Using Mobile Phones - Nepal, 2016.

In 2012, the Global Vaccine Action Plan* established a goal to achieve measles and rubella elimination in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions (194 countries) by 2020 (1). Measles elimination strategies aim to achieve ≥95% coverage with 2 routine doses of measles-containing vaccine (2), and implement supplementary immunization activities (SIAs)† in settings where routine coverage is low or where there are subpopulations at high risk. To ensure SIA quality and to achieve ≥95% SIA coverage nationally, rapid convenience monitoring (RCM) is used during or immediately after SIAs (3,4). The objective of RCM is to find unvaccinated children and to identify reasons for nonvaccination in areas with persons at high risk, to enable immediate implementation of corrective actions (e.g., reassigning teams to poorly vaccinated areas, modifying the timing of vaccination, or conducting mop-up vaccination activities). This report describes pilot testing of RCM using mobile phones (RCM-MP) during the second phase of an SIA in Nepal in 2016. Use of RCM-MP resulted in 87% timeliness and 94% completeness of data reporting and found that, although 95% of children were vaccinated, 42% of areas required corrective vaccination activities. RCM-MP challenges included connecting to mobile networks, small phone screen size, and capturing Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates. Nonetheless, use of RCM-MP led to faster data transmission, analysis, and decision-making and to increased accountability among levels of the health system.

Global Measles and Rubella Laboratory Network Support for Elimination Goals, 2010-2015.

In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP)* with the objective to eliminate measles and rubella in five World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020. In September 2013, countries in all six WHO regions had established measles elimination goals, and additional goals for elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome were established in three regions (1). Capacity for surveillance, including laboratory confirmation, is fundamental to monitoring and verifying elimination. The 2012-2020 Global Measles and Rubella Strategic Plan of the Measles and Rubella Initiative(†) calls for effective case-based surveillance with laboratory testing for case confirmation (2). In 2000, the WHO Global Measles and Rubella Laboratory Network (GMRLN) was established to provide high quality laboratory support for surveillance (3). The GMRLN is the largest globally coordinated laboratory network, with 703 laboratories supporting surveillance in 191 countries. During 2010-2015, 742,187 serum specimens were tested, and 27,832 viral sequences were reported globally. Expansion of the capacity of the GMRLN will support measles and rubella elimination efforts as well as surveillance for other vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), including rotavirus, and for emerging pathogens of public health concern.

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000-2010 for each country, region and globally. RESULTS: The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4-61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46-195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56-235) and 121 (95% CI: 31-238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000-80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000-97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000-158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000-169,000) in 1996. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.

Progress toward regional measles elimination - worldwide, 2000-2014.

In 2000, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), with MDG4 being a two-thirds reduction in child mortality by 2015, and with measles vaccination coverage being one of the three indicators of progress toward this goal.* In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to fewer than five cases per million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (1).† In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan§ with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. WHO member states in all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. This report updates the 2000­2013 report (2) and describes progress toward global control and regional measles elimination during 2000­2014. During this period, annual reported measles incidence declined 73% worldwide, from 146 to 40 cases per million population, and annual estimated measles deaths declined 79%, from 546,800 to 114,900. However, progress toward the 2015 milestones and elimination goals has slowed markedly since 2010. To resume progress toward milestones and goals for measles elimination, a review of current strategies and challenges to improving program performance is needed, and countries and their partners need to raise the visibility of measles elimination, address barriers to measles vaccination, and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.

Global Progress Toward Rubella and Congenital Rubella Syndrome Control and Elimination - 2000-2014.

Rubella virus usually causes a mild fever and rash in children and adults. However, infection during pregnancy, especially during the first trimester, can result in miscarriage, fetal death, stillbirth, or a constellation of congenital malformations known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). In 2011, the World Health Organization (WHO) updated guidance on the preferred strategy for introduction of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into national routine immunization schedules, including an initial vaccination campaign usually targeting children aged 9 months-15 years . The Global Vaccine Action Plan endorsed by the World Health Assembly in 2012 and the Global Measles and Rubella Strategic Plan (2012-2020) published by Measles and Rubella Initiative partners in 2012 both include goals to eliminate rubella and CRS in at least two WHO regions by 2015, and at least five WHO regions by 2020 (2,3). This report updates a previous report and summarizes global progress toward rubella and CRS control and elimination during 2000-2014. As of December 2014, RCV had been introduced in 140 (72%) countries, an increase from 99 (51%) countries in 2000 (for this report, WHO member states are referred to as countries). Reported rubella cases declined 95%, from 670,894 cases in 102 countries in 2000 to 33,068 cases in 162 countries in 2014, although reporting is inconsistent. To achieve the 2020 Global Vaccine Action Plan rubella and CRS elimination goals, RCV introduction needs to continue as country criteria indicating readiness are met, and rubella and CRS surveillance need to be strengthened to ensure that progress toward elimination can be measured.

Measles - The epidemiology of elimination.

Tremendous progress has been made globally to reduce the contribution of measles to the burden of childhood deaths and measles cases have dramatically decreased with increased two dose measles-containing vaccine coverage. As a result the Global Vaccine Action Plan, endorsed by the World Health Assembly, has targeted measles elimination in at least five of the six World Health Organisation Regions by 2020. This is an ambitious goal, since measles control requires the highest immunisation coverage of any vaccine preventable disease, which means that the health system must be able to reach every community. Further, while measles remains endemic in any country, importations will result in local transmission and outbreaks in countries and Regions that have interrupted local endemic measles circulation. One of the lines of evidence that countries and Regions must address to confirm measles elimination is a detailed description of measles epidemiology over an extended period. This information is incredibly valuable as predictable epidemiological patterns emerge as measles elimination is approached and achieved. These critical features, including the source, size and duration of outbreaks, the seasonality and age-distribution of cases, genotyping pointers and effective reproduction rate estimates, are discussed with illustrative examples from the Region of the Americas, which eliminated measles in 2002, and the Western Pacific Region, which has established a Regional Verification Commission to review progress towards elimination in all member countries.

Progress toward regional measles elimination--worldwide, 2000-2013.

In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. Member states of all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones for 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per million; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate. This report updates the 2000-2012 report and describes progress toward global control and regional measles elimination during 2000-2013. During this period, annual reported measles incidence declined 72% worldwide, from 146 to 40 per million population, and annual estimated measles deaths declined 75%, from 544,200 to 145,700. Four of six WHO regions have established regional verification commissions (RVCs); in the European (EUR) and Western Pacific regions (WPR), 19 member states successfully documented the absence of endemic measles. Resuming progress toward 2015 milestones and elimination goals will require countries and their partners to raise the visibility of measles elimination, address barriers to measles vaccination, and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.

Global control and regional elimination of measles, 2000-2012.

In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones toward global measles eradication to be reached by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district, 2) reduce and maintain annual measles incidence at <5 cases per million, and 3) reduce measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate. After the adoption by member states of the South-East Asia Region (SEAR) of the goal of measles elimination by 2020, elimination goals have been set by member states of all six World Health Organization (WHO) regions, and reaching measles elimination in four WHO regions by 2015 is an objective of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP). This report updates the previous report for 2000-2011 and describes progress toward global control and regional elimination of measles during 2000-2012. During this period, increases in routine MCV coverage, plus supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) reaching 145 million children in 2012, led to a 77% decrease worldwide in reported measles annual incidence, from 146 to 33 per million population, and a 78% decline in estimated annual measles deaths, from 562,400 to 122,000. Compared with a scenario of no vaccination, an estimated 13.8 million deaths were prevented by measles vaccination during 2000-2012. Achieving the 2015 targets and elimination goals will require countries and their partners to raise the visibility of measles elimination and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.

Enabling implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan: developing investment cases to achieve targets for measles and rubella prevention.

Global prevention and control of infectious diseases requires significant investment of financial and human resources and well-functioning leadership and management structures. The reality of competing demands for limited resources leads to trade-offs and questions about the relative value of specific investments. Developing investment cases can help to provide stakeholders with information about the benefits, costs, and risks associated with available options, including examination of social, political, governance, and ethical issues. We describe the process of developing investment cases for globally coordinated management of action plans for measles and rubella as tools for enabling the implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP). We focus on considerations related to the timing of efforts to achieve measles and rubella goals independently and within the context of ongoing polio eradication efforts, other immunization priorities, and other efforts to control communicable diseases or child survival initiatives. Our analysis suggests that the interactions between the availability and sustainability of financial support, sufficient supplies of vaccines, capacity of vaccine delivery systems, and commitments at all levels will impact the feasibility and timing of achieving national, regional, and global goals. The timing of investments and achievements will determine the net financial and health benefits obtained. The methodology, framing, and assumptions used to characterize net benefits and uncertainties in the investment cases will impact estimates and perceptions about the value of prevention achieved overall by the GVAP. We suggest that appropriately valuing the benefits of investments of measles and rubella prevention will require the use of integrated dynamic disease, economic, risk, and decision analytic models in combination with consideration of qualitative factors, and that synthesizing information in the form of investment cases may help stakeholders manage expectations as they chart the course ahead and navigate the decade of vaccines.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

INTRODUCTION: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. METHODS: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. RESULTS: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

Research priorities for global measles and rubella control and eradication.

In 2010, an expert advisory panel convened by the World Health Organization to assess the feasibility of measles eradication concluded that (1) measles can and should be eradicated, (2) eradication by 2020 is feasible if measurable progress is made toward existing 2015 measles mortality reduction targets, (3) measles eradication activities should occur in the context of strengthening routine immunization services, and (4) measles eradication activities should be used to accelerate control and elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). The expert advisory panel also emphasized the critical role of research and innovation in any disease control or eradication program. In May 2011, a meeting was held to identify and prioritize research priorities to support measles and rubella/CRS control and potential eradication activities. This summary presents the questions identified by the meeting participants and their relative priority within the following categories: (1) measles epidemiology, (2) vaccine development and alternative vaccine delivery, (3) surveillance and laboratory methods, (4) immunization strategies, (5) mathematical modeling and economic analyses, and (6) rubella/CRS control and elimination.

Global use of rubella vaccines, 1980-2009.

In most developing countries, rubella vaccine has not been included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization because of lack of information on the burden of disease caused by rubella virus, increased cost associated with adding rubella vaccine, and the concern that if high vaccine coverage cannot be achieved and maintained, the risk of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) may increase. Data for 2009 reported by countries to the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Children's Fund through the annual Joint Reporting Form were used to indicate patterns in the worldwide use of rubella vaccines, describe the number of reported rubella and CRS cases by WHO Region, and explore factors associated with decisions by countries to introduce rubella vaccine in their national childhood immunization programs. The number of WHO Member States using rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) in their national childhood immunization schedule increased from 83 (43%) in 1996 to 130 (67%) in 2009. Although scheduled ages for rubella vaccination vary across countries and regions, most countries have a 2-dose schedule using a combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine. Among 130 countries using RCV in 2009, median coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) was 95% (interquartile range [IQR], 90%-98%), compared with a median MCV1 coverage of 76% (IQR, 64%-88%) in countries not using RCV. The median per capita gross national income among 130 countries using RCV was US $6300 (IQR, $3227-$20 916), compared with $635 (IQR, $337-$1027) for 63 countries not using RCV. In 2009, 121 344 rubella cases from 167 countries were reported to WHO. However, only 165 CRS cases were reported globally, of which 67 were in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Further improvements in surveillance are needed to better document the burden of CRS, and new financing mechanisms will be required to catalyze the introduction of rubella vaccine in developing countries that currently meet the coverage criteria for introduction of rubella vaccine.