Age-related patterns in mandibular third molar eruption: presenting new forensic age assessment reference data from a Chinese population.

Valid reference data are essential for reliable forensic age assessment procedures in the living, a fact that extends to the trait of mandibular third molar eruption in dental panoramic radiographs (PAN). The objective of this study was to acquire valid reference data for a northern Chinese population. The study was guided by the criteria for reference studies in age assessment.To this end, a study population from China comprising 917 panoramic radiographs obtained from 430 females and 487 males aged between 15.00 and 25.99 years was analysed. Of the 917 PANs, a total of 1230 mandibular third molars were evaluated.The PANs, retrospectively evaluated, were performed for medical indication during the period from 2016 to 2021. The assessment of mandibular third molars was conducted using the staging scale presented by Olze et al. in 2012. Two independent examiners, trained in assessing PANs for forensic age estimation, evaluated the images. In instances where the two examiners diverged in their assessments these were subsequently deliberated, and a consensus stage was assigned.The mean age increased with higher stages for both teeth and both sexes. The minimum age recorded for stage D, indicating complete tooth eruption, was 15.6 years in females and 16.1 years in males. Consequently, the completion of mandibular third molar eruption was observed in both sexes well before reaching the age of 18. In light of our results, it is evident that relying solely on the assessment of mandibular third molar eruption may not be sufficient for accurately determining the age of majority. Contrary to previous literature, this finding of a completed eruption of the mandibular third molars in northern Chinese individuals is only suitable for detecting the completion of the 16th year of life in males according to our results. However, as the results are inconsistent compared to other studies in the literature, the trait should not be used as the only decisive marker to prove this age threshold in males from northern China.

Studying eruption patterns of mandibular third molars for forensic age assessment: Introducing current reference data from a population of black South Africans.

INTRODUCTION: Evaluation of the eruption of mandibular third molars in orthopantomograms (OPGs) is a method of forensic age assessment. The objective of our study was to provide valid reference data for this trait within a population of black South Africans. The study was guided by the criteria for reference studies in age assessment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A study population from Pretoria, South Africa comprising 670 OPGs obtained from 338 black females and 332 black males aged between 15.00 and 25.97 years was analysed. All OPGs were performed for medical indication during the period from 2011 to 2022 and were retrospectively evaluated. From the 670 OPGs, a total of 1021 mandibular third molars were evaluated. The assessment of mandibular third molars was conducted using the staging scale presented by Olze et al. in 2012. Two experienced dentists evaluated the OPGs independently of each other. If the two examiners diverged in their assessments, a consensus stage was assigned. RESULTS: As expected, the mean, median and minimal age increased with higher stages for both teeth and both sexes. The minimum age recorded for stage D, indicating complete tooth eruption, was 15.79 years in females and 16.62 years in males. CONCLUSION: As it is the case for previous reference studies in other countries, placing exclusive reliance on the evaluation of mandibular third molar eruption is inadequate for ascertaining the age of majority among Black South Africans. Future studies need to examine if our results are transferable to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Third molar eruption in dental panoramic radiographs as a feature for forensic age assessment - new reference data from a German population.

Forensic age assessment in the living can provide legal certainty when an individual's chronological age is unknown or when age-related information is questionable. An established method involves assessing the eruption of mandibular third molars through dental panoramic radiographs (PAN). In age assessment procedures, the respective findings are compared to reference data. The objective of this study was to generate new reference data in line with the required standards for mandibular third molar eruption within a German population. For this purpose, 605 PANs from 302 females and 303 males aged 15.04 to 25.99 years were examined. The PANs were acquired between 2013 and 2020, and the development of the mandibular third molars was rated independently by two experienced examiners using the Olze et al. staging scale from 2012. In case of disagreement in the assigned ratings, a consensus was reached through arbitration. While the mean, median and minimum ages were observed to increase with each stage of mandibular third molar eruption according to the Olze method, there was considerable overlap in the distribution of age between the stages. The minimum age for stage D, which corresponds to complete tooth eruption, was 16.1 years for females and 17.1 years for males. Thus, the completion of mandibular third molar eruption was found in both sexes before reaching the age of 18. In all individuals who had at least one tooth with completed eruption and who were younger than 17.4 years of age (n = 10), mineralization of the teeth in question was not complete. Based on our findings, the feature of assessing mandibular third molar eruption in PAN cannot be relied upon for determining age of majority.

Radiological assessment of periodontal ligament space visibility on third molars for forensic age assessment - a comparison study of three different staging scales.

Various staging scales have been proposed for the assessment of the visibility of the periodontal ligament space of mandibular third molars on dental panoramic radiographs (PANs) for forensic age assessment in living individuals. However, up to now, there has been no systematic comparison between these staging scales available. We directly compared the 2010 staging scale proposed by Olze et al. with the 2017 staging by Lucas et al. and the 2020 staging by Guo et al. in a German study population. We evaluated 233 PANs from 115 females and 118 males aged 20.0 to 40.9 years using three independent examiners, with one examiner conducting two assessments. We examined the correlation between age and stage, as well as the inter- and intra-rater reliabilities. While the point estimates for the correlation coefficient and the reliability measures were lowest for the Guo scale and highest for the Olze scale, confidence intervals showed a large overlap, particularly for the scales of Olze et al. and Lucas et al. The correlation coefficients between stage and age were consistently lower in females than in males across all methods. In summary, we showed that the staging scales of Olze et al. and Lucas et al. were very similar. The Olze method showed higher point estimates across all analyses, and because there are more reference data available for this method, we argue that it should be preferred as the method of choice for further studies in the field. However, Guo method could be considered for instances, in which the inter-radicular periodontal ligament is not evaluable.

Dental age assessment in the living: a comparison of two common stage classifications for assessing radiographic visibility of the root canals in mandibular third molars.

After dentition is complete, degenerative tooth characteristics can be used for dental age assessment. Radiological assessment of the visibility of the root canals of the mandibular third molars in dental panoramic radiographs (DPRs) is known to be one such suitable feature. Essentially, two different stage classifications are available for evaluating the visibility of the root canals of mandibular third molars in the DPR. The aim of this study was to determine if one method outperforms the other. Therefore, the 2010 method of Olze et al. was directly compared to the 2017 method of Lucas et al. in the 2020 modification of Al Qattan et al. To this end, 233 DPRs from 116 females and 117 males aged 20.0 to 40.9 years were evaluated by three independent experienced examiners. In addition, one examiner ran two independent evaluations. Correlation between age and stage was investigated, and the inter- and intra-rater reliability was estimated for both methods. Correlation between age and stage was higher with the Olze method (Spearman rho 0.388 [95% CI 0.309, 0.462], males and 0.283 [95% CI 0.216, 0.357], females) than the Lucas method (0.212 [95% CI 0.141, 0.284], males and 0.265 [95% CI 0.193, 0.340], females). The intra-rater repeatability of the Olze method (Krippendorff's α = 0.576 [95% CI 0.508, 0.644], males and α = 0.592 [95% CI 0.523, 0.661], females) was greater than that for the Lucas method (intra-rater α = 0.422 [95% CI 0.382, 0.502], males and α = 0.516 [95% CI 0.523, 0.661], females). Inter-rater reproducibility was also greater for the Olze method (α = 0.542 [95% CI 0.463, 0.620], males and α = 0.533 [95% CI 0.451, 0.615], females) compared to the Lucas method (α = 0.374 [95% CI 0.304, 0.443], males and α = 0.432 [95% CI 0.359, 0.505], females). The method of Olze et al. was found to present marginal advantages to the Lucas et al. method across all examinations and may be a more appropriate method for application in future studies.

Postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy for malignancy: results from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with significant postoperative morbidity. Surgeons should have a sound understanding of the potential complications for consenting and benchmarking purposes. Furthermore, preoperative identification of high-risk patients can guide patient selection and potentially allow for targeted prehabilitation and/or individualized treatment regimens. Using a large multicentre cohort, this study aimed to calculate the incidence of all PD complications and identify risk factors. METHOD: Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a retrospective cohort study of PD outcomes (29 centres from 8 countries, 2012-2015). The incidence and severity of all complications was recorded and potential risk factors for morbidity, major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo grade > IIIa), postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage (PPH) and 90-day mortality were investigated. RESULTS: Among the 1348 included patients, overall morbidity, major morbidity, POPF, PPH and perioperative death affected 53 per cent (n = 720), 17 per cent (n = 228), 8 per cent (n = 108), 6 per cent (n = 84) and 4 per cent (n = 53), respectively. Following multivariable tests, a high BMI (P = 0.007), an ASA grade > II (P < 0.0001) and a classic Whipple approach (P = 0.005) were all associated with increased overall morbidity. In addition, ASA grade > II patients were at increased risk of major morbidity (P < 0.0001), and a raised BMI correlated with a greater risk of POPF (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this multicentre study of PD outcomes, an ASA grade > II was a risk factor for major morbidity and a high BMI was a risk factor for POPF. Patients who are preoperatively identified to be high risk may benefit from targeted prehabilitation or individualized treatment regimens.

The R package for DICOM to brain imaging data structure conversion.

The BIDSconvertR package is the first R-based tool for organizing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) research data in accordance with the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS) specification. Key features are the DICOM (Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine) to NIfTI (Neuroimaging Informatics Technology Initiative) and NIfTI to BIDS conversion, the implementation of the BIDS Validator and a MRI data viewer to efficiently manage MRI neuroimaging data sets. The BIDSconvertR offers an interactive user dialogue and a graphical user interface. BIDS validation is facilitated by color-coding of the BIDS sequence-IDs. Data cleaning is simplified by the option of using regular expressions. The BIDSconvertR contributes to the growing efforts to improve reproducibility in neuroimaging research by facilitating researchers to share and organize data in a standardized and transparent manner.

Motivational support intervention to reduce smoking and increase physical activity in smokers not ready to quit: the TARS RCT.

Background: Physical activity can support smoking cessation for smokers wanting to quit, but there have been no studies on supporting smokers wanting only to reduce. More broadly, the effect of motivational support for such smokers is unclear. Objectives: The objectives were to determine if motivational support to increase physical activity and reduce smoking for smokers not wanting to immediately quit helps reduce smoking and increase abstinence and physical activity, and to determine if this intervention is cost-effective. Design: This was a multicentred, two-arm, parallel-group, randomised (1 : 1) controlled superiority trial with accompanying trial-based and model-based economic evaluations, and a process evaluation. Setting and participants: Participants from health and other community settings in four English cities received either the intervention (n = 457) or usual support (n = 458). Intervention: The intervention consisted of up to eight face-to-face or telephone behavioural support sessions to reduce smoking and increase physical activity. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures were carbon monoxide-verified 6- and 12-month floating prolonged abstinence (primary outcome), self-reported number of cigarettes smoked per day, number of quit attempts and carbon monoxide-verified abstinence at 3 and 9 months. Furthermore, self-reported (3 and 9 months) and accelerometer-recorded (3 months) physical activity data were gathered. Process items, intervention costs and cost-effectiveness were also assessed. Results: The average age of the sample was 49.8 years, and participants were predominantly from areas with socioeconomic deprivation and were moderately heavy smokers. The intervention was delivered with good fidelity. Few participants achieved carbon monoxide-verified 6-month prolonged abstinence [nine (2.0%) in the intervention group and four (0.9%) in the control group; adjusted odds ratio 2.30 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 7.56)] or 12-month prolonged abstinence [six (1.3%) in the intervention group and one (0.2%) in the control group; adjusted odds ratio 6.33 (95% confidence interval 0.76 to 53.10)]. At 3 months, the intervention participants smoked fewer cigarettes than the control participants (21.1 vs. 26.8 per day). Intervention participants were more likely to reduce cigarettes by ≥ 50% by 3 months [18.9% vs. 10.5%; adjusted odds ratio 1.98 (95% confidence interval 1.35 to 2.90] and 9 months [14.4% vs. 10.0%; adjusted odds ratio 1.52 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.29)], and reported more moderate-to-vigorous physical activity at 3 months [adjusted weekly mean difference of 81.61 minutes (95% confidence interval 28.75 to 134.47 minutes)], but not at 9 months. Increased physical activity did not mediate intervention effects on smoking. The intervention positively influenced most smoking and physical activity beliefs, with some intervention effects mediating changes in smoking and physical activity outcomes. The average intervention cost was estimated to be £239.18 per person, with an overall additional cost of £173.50 (95% confidence interval -£353.82 to £513.77) when considering intervention and health-care costs. The 1.1% absolute between-group difference in carbon monoxide-verified 6-month prolonged abstinence provided a small gain in lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (0.006), and a minimal saving in lifetime health-care costs (net saving £236). Conclusions: There was no evidence that behavioural support for smoking reduction and increased physical activity led to meaningful increases in prolonged abstinence among smokers with no immediate plans to quit smoking. The intervention is not cost-effective. Limitations: Prolonged abstinence rates were much lower than expected, meaning that the trial was underpowered to provide confidence that the intervention doubled prolonged abstinence. Future work: Further research should explore the effects of the present intervention to support smokers who want to reduce prior to quitting, and/or extend the support available for prolonged reduction and abstinence. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN47776579. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

NHS pharmacological and behavioural support helps smokers wanting to quit, and physical activity may also help. It is unclear if behavioural support for those not ready to quit may lead to more quit attempts and abstinence from smoking. A total of 915 smokers who wanted to reduce their smoking, but who had not yet quit, were recruited and randomised to receive an intervention or brief support as usual (brief advice to quit), in Plymouth, London, Oxford and Nottingham. The intervention involved up to eight sessions (by telephone or in person) of motivational support to reduce smoking and increase physical activity (and more sessions to support a quit attempt). Participants self-reported smoking and physical activity information at the start of the trial and after 3 and 9 months. Self-reported quitters confirmed their abstinence with a biochemical test of expired air or saliva. Our main interest was in whether or not the groups differed in the proportion who remained abstinent for at least 6 months. Overall, only 1­2% remained abstinent for 6 months. Although it appeared that a greater proportion did so after receiving the intervention, because few participants were abstinent, the results are not conclusive. However, the intervention had beneficial effects on less rigorous outcomes, including a reduction in the self-reported number of cigarettes smoked, and a greater proportion of intervention than control participants with self-reported and biochemically verified abstinence at 3 months. The intervention also helped participants to reduce, by at least half, the number of cigarettes they smoked at 3 and 9 months, and to report more physical activity, but only at 3 months. Despite reasonable intervention engagement and some short-term changes in smoking and physical activity, the trial does not provide evidence that this intervention would help smokers to quit for at least 6 months nor would it be cost-effective, with an average cost of £239 per smoker.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of behavioural support for prolonged abstinence for smokers wishing to reduce but not quit: Randomised controlled trial of physical activity assisted reduction of smoking (TARS).

AIMS: For smokers unmotivated to quit, we assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of behavioural support to reduce smoking and increase physical activity on prolonged abstinence and related outcomes. DESIGN: A multi-centred pragmatic two-arm parallel randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Primary care and the community across four United Kingdom sites. PARTICIPANTS: Nine hundred and fifteen adult smokers (55% female, 85% White), recruited via primary and secondary care and the community, who wished to reduce their smoking but not quit. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to support as usual (SAU) (n = 458) versus multi-component community-based behavioural support (n = 457), involving up to eight weekly person-centred face-to-face or phone sessions with additional 6-week support for those wishing to quit. MEASUREMENTS: Ideally, cessation follows smoking reduction so the primary pre-defined outcome was biochemically verified 6-month prolonged abstinence (from 3-9 months, with a secondary endpoint also considering abstinence between 9 and 15 months). Secondary outcomes included biochemically verified 12-month prolonged abstinence and point prevalent biochemically verified and self-reported abstinence, quit attempts, number of cigarettes smoked, pharmacological aids used, SF12, EQ-5D and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) at 3 and 9 months. Intervention costs were assessed for a cost-effectiveness analysis. FINDINGS: Assuming missing data at follow-up implied continued smoking, nine (2.0%) intervention participants and four (0.9%) SAU participants achieved the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70-7.56, P = 0.169). At 3 and 9 months, the proportions self-reporting reducing cigarettes smoked from baseline by ≥50%, for intervention versus SAU, were 18.9% versus 10.5% (P = 0.009) and 14.4% versus 10% (P = 0.044), respectively. Mean difference in weekly MVPA at 3 months was 81.6 minutes in favour of the intervention group (95% CI = 28.75, 134.47: P = 0.003), but there was no significant difference at 9 months (23.70, 95% CI = -33.07, 80.47: P = 0.143). Changes in MVPA did not mediate changes in smoking outcomes. The intervention cost was £239.18 per person, with no evidence of cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: For United Kingdom smokers wanting to reduce but not quit smoking, behavioural support to reduce smoking and increase physical activity improved some short-term smoking cessation and reduction outcomes and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, but had no long-term effects on smoking cessation or physical activity.

Third molar eruption in orthopantomograms as a feature for forensic age assessment-a comparison study of different classification systems.

Evaluation of third molar eruption represents an established method for age assessment of living individuals. Different classification systems are available for the radiological assessment of third molar eruption. The aim of this study was to identify the most accurate and reliable classification system for the mandibular third molar eruption on orthopantomograms (OPG). We compared the method of Olze et al. (2012) with the method of Willmot et al. (2018) and a newly derived classification system using OPGs from 211 individuals aged 15-25 years. The assessments were performed by three experienced examiners. One examiner evaluated all radiographs twice. The correlation between age and stage was investigated and the inter- and intra-rater reliability was estimated for all three methods. Correlation between stage and age was similar between classification systems, although higher in the data from males (Spearman's rho ranging from 0.568 to 0.583) than from females (0.440 to 0.446). Inter- and intra-rater reliability measures were similar across methods and invariant on sex, with overlapping confidence intervals, although the highest point estimates for both intra- and inter-rater reliability were for the method by Olze et al. with Krippendorf's alpha values of 0.904 (95% confidence interval 0.854, 0.954) and 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.744, 0.850). It was concluded that the method of Olze et al. from 2012 is a reliable method for practical application and future studies.

Real-world effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults: Cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is recommended for UK older adults, but how age moderates effectiveness is unclear. METHODS: Three annual cohorts of primary-care patients aged≥65y from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink selected from 2003-5 created a natural experiment (n = 324,804), reflecting the staged introduction of the vaccine. The outcome was symptoms consistent with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia (CAP) requiring antibiotics or hospitalisation. We used the prior event rate ratio (PERR) approach to address bias from unmeasured confounders. RESULTS: Vaccinated patients had higher rates of CAP in the year before vaccination than their controls, indicating the potential for confounding bias. After adjustment for confounding using the prior event rate ratio (PERR) method, PPV23 was estimated to be effective against CAP for two years after vaccination in all age sub-groups with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 0.86 (0.80 to 0.93), 0.74 (0.65 to 0.85) and 0.65 (0.57 to 0.74) in patients aged 65-74, 75-79 and 80+ respectively in the 2005 cohort. Age moderated the effect of vaccination with predicted risk reductions of 8% at 65y and 29% at 80y. CONCLUSIONS: PPV23 is moderately effective at reducing CAP among UK patients aged≥65y, in the two years after vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness is maintained, and may increase, in the oldest age groups in step with increasing susceptibility to CAP.

A process evaluation, with mediation analysis, of a web-based intervention to augment primary care exercise referral schemes: the e-coachER randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The e-coachER trial aimed to determine whether adding web-based behavioural support to exercise referral schemes (ERS) increased long-term device-measured physical activity (PA) for patients with chronic conditions, compared to ERS alone, within a randomised controlled trial. This study explores the mechanisms of action of the e-coachER intervention using measures of the behaviour change processes integral to the intervention's logic model. METHODS: Four hundred fifty adults with obesity, diabetes, hypertension, osteoarthritis or history of depression referred to an ERS were recruited in Plymouth, Birmingham and Glasgow. The e-coachER intervention comprising 7-Steps to Health was aligned with Self-Determination Theory and mapped against evidence-based behaviour change techniques (BCTs). Participants completed questionnaires at 0, 4, and 12 months to assess PA and self-reported offline engagement with core BCTs in day-to-day life (including action planning and self-monitoring) and beliefs relating to PA (including perceived importance, confidence, competence, autonomy and support). We compared groups at 4 and 12 months, controlling for baseline measures and other covariates. Mediation analysis using the product of coefficients method was used to determine if changes in process variables mediated intervention effects on moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) recorded by accelerometer and self-report at 4- and 12-months. RESULTS: The internal reliability (Cronbach's alpha) for all multi-item scales was > 0.77. At 4-months, those randomised to e-coachER reported higher levels of PA beliefs relating to importance (1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42 to 1.61, p = 0.001), confidence (1.28, 95% CI: 0.57 to 1.98, p < 0.001), competence (1.61, 95% CI: .68 to 2.54, p = 0.001), availability of support (0.77, 95% CI: 0.07 to 1.48, p = 0.031), use of action planning (1.54, 95% CI: 0.23 to 2.85, p = 0.021) and use of self-monitoring (0.76, 95% CI: 0.19 to 1.32, p = 0.009) compared to ERS alone. There were no intervention effects on autonomous beliefs or perceived frequency of support, compared to ERS alone. At the 12-month follow-up, participants belief in the importance of PA was the only process measure to remain significantly higher in the e-coachER group when compared to ERS alone (0.75, 95% CI: 0.05 to 1.45). Intervention effects on perceived importance (2.52, 95% CI: 0.45 to 5.39), action planning (1.56, 95% CI: 0.10 to 3.54) and self-monitoring (1.92, 95% CI: 0.21 to 4.33) at 4-months significantly mediated change in accelerometer measured MVPA at 12-months (recorded in ≥ 10-min bouts). CONCLUSIONS: e-coachER led to some short-term changes in most process outcomes. Some of these processes also appeared to mediate e-coachER effects on changes in accelerometer measured MVPA. Further work should be carried out to understand how best to design and implement theoretically underpinned web-based physical activity promotion interventions within ERS. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN15644451 . Registered 12 February 2015.

Effectiveness of a targeted telephone-based case management service on activity in an Emergency Department in the UK: a pragmatic difference-in-differences evaluation.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the effectiveness of a targeted telephone-based case management service that aimed to reduce ED attendance amongst frequent attenders, known to disproportionately contribute to demand. Evidence on the effectiveness of these services varies. METHODS: A 24-month controlled before-and-after study, following 808 patients (128 cases and 680 controls (41 were non-compliant)) who were offered the service in the first four months of operation within a UK ED department. Patients stratified as high-risk of reattending ED within 6 months by a predictive model were manually screened. Those positively reviewed were offered a non-clinical, nurse-led, telephone-based health coaching, consisting of care planning, coordination and goal setting for up to 9 months. Service effectiveness was estimated using a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Incident rate of ED and Minor Injury Unit (MIU) attendances and average length of stay in intervention recipients and controls over 12 months after receiving their service offer following ED attendance were compared, adjusting for the prior 12-month period, sex and age, to give an incidence rate ratio (IRR). RESULTS: Intervention recipients were more likely to be female (63.3% versus 55.4%), younger (mean of 69 years versus 76 years), and have higher levels of ED activity (except for MIU) than controls. Mean rates fell between periods for all outcomes (except for MIU attendance). The Intention-to-Treat analysis indicated non-statistically significant effect of the intervention in reducing all outcomes, except for MIU attendances, with IRRs: ED attendances, 0.856 (95% CI: 0.631, 1.160); ED admissions, 0.871 (95% CI: 0.628, 1.208); length of stay for emergency and elective admissions: 0.844 (95% CI: 0.619, 1.151) and 0.781 (95% CI: 0.420, 1.454). MIU attendance increased with an IRR: 2.638 (95% CI: 1.041, 6.680). CONCLUSIONS: Telephone-based health coaching appears to be effective in reducing ED attendances and admissions, with shorter lengths of stay, in intervention recipients over controls. Future studies need to capture outcomes beyond acute activity, and better understand how services like this provide added value.

Influenza vaccination reduced myocardial infarctions in United Kingdom older adults: a prior event rate ratio study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the real-world effectiveness of the influenza vaccine against myocardial infarction (MI) and influenza in the decade since adults aged ≥ 65 years were first recommended the vaccine. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identified annual cohorts, 1997 to 2011, of adults aged ≥ 65 years, without previous influenza vaccination, from UK general practices, registered with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using a quasi-experimental study design to control for confounding bias, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness on hospitalization for MI, influenza, and antibiotic prescriptions for lower respiratory tract infections. RESULTS: Vaccination was moderately effective against influenza, the prior event rate ratio-adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 0.70 in 1999 to 0.99 in 2001. Prior event rate ratio-adjusted hazard ratios demonstrated a protective effect against MIs, varying between 0.40 in 2010 and 0.89 in 2001. Aggregated across the cohorts, influenza vaccination reduced the risk of MIs by 39% (95% confidence interval: 34%, 44%). CONCLUSION: Effectiveness of the flu vaccine in preventing MIs in older UK adults is consistent with the limited evidence from clinical trials. Similar trends in effectiveness against influenza and against MIs suggest the risk of influenza mediates the effectiveness against MIs, although divergence in some years implies the mechanism may be complex.

A UK survey on variation in the practice of management of choledocholithiasis and laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (ALiCE Survey).

BACKGROUND: The practice of managing suspected/confirmed common bile duct stones (CBDS) can vary significantly in the UK. We aimed to assess this variability in practice and challenges to form a basis for future consensus. METHODS: An electronic survey containing 40 questions on various aspects of management of CBDS was sent to surgeons who perform cholecystectomies via five surgical associations. RESULTS: A total of 132 surgeons responded to the survey. The speciality of surgeons includes upper gastro-intestinal (68%), general (18%), colorectal (12%), and others (2%). For patients with suspected CBD stones, 80% would choose magnetic resonance cholangio-pancreatography, and 14.4% would proceed to intra-operative imaging. Most surgeons preferred intra-operative cholangiogram over intra-operative ultrasound (83% vs 17%). For the treatment, 62.1% preferred a two-stage approach [endoscopic retrograde cholangio-pancreatography (ERCP) followed by laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC)] and 33.4% chose a single-stage approach [LC + laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE)]. Eighty (60.6%) responders performed LCBDE, and 19 (23.8%) of them performed > 10 LCBDEs in a year. Two third of surgeons (62.5%) preferred a trans-choledochal approach to CBDS. Half of the surgeons that perform LCBDE use a T-tube selectively and 1.6% routinely. The "availability of very good ERCP service" and "lack of formal training" were the two main reasons for surgeons not performing LCBDE. Both surgeons' speciality and whether they perform other complex laparoscopic surgery were significantly associated with choosing a two-stage approach over a one-stage approach (χ2 test, speciality p = 0.033, complex surgery p = 0.011). CONCLUSION: Our survey confirms the significant variability in the diagnosis and management of CBDS. The two-stage approach is still the most common way of managing CBDS in the UK. The main reasons for the low uptake of the single-stage approach are the availability of good ERCP service, lack of equipment and lack of formal training in the technique of LCBDE.

Age-dependent decrease in dental pulp cavity volume as a feature for age assessment: a comparative in vitro study using 9.4-T UTE-MRI and CBCT 3D imaging.

Evaluation of secondary dentin formation is generally suitable for age assessment. We investigated the potential of modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technology to visualize the dental pulp in direct comparison with cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). To this end, we examined 32 extracted human teeth (teeth 11-48 [FDI]) using 9.4-T ultrashort echo time (UTE)-MRI and CBCT (methods). 3D reconstruction was performed via both manual and semi-automatic segmentation (settings) for both methods in two runs by one examiner. Nine teeth were also examined by a second examiner. We evaluated the agreement between examiners, scan methods, and settings. CBCT was able to determine the pulp volume for all teeth. This was not possible for two teeth on MRI due to MRI artifacts. The mean pulp volume estimated by CBCT was consistently higher (~ 43%) with greater variability. With lower variability in its measurements, evaluation of pulp volume using the MRI method exhibited greater sensitivity to differences between settings (p = 0.016) and between examiners (p = 0.009). The interactions of single-rooted teeth and multi-rooted teeth and method or setting were not found to be significant. For examiner agreement, the mean pulp volumes were similar with overlapping measurements (ICC > 0.995). Suitable for use in age assessment is 9.4-T UTE-MRI with good reliability and lower variation than CBCT. For MRI, manual segmentation is necessary due to a more detailed representation of the interior of the pulp cavity. Since determination of pulp volume is expected to be systematically larger using CBCT, method-specific reference values are indispensable for practical age assessment procedures. The results should be verified under in vivo conditions in the future.

Bayesian statistics in the design and analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials and their reporting quality: a methodological systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In a cluster randomised controlled trial (CRCT), randomisation units are "clusters" such as schools or GP practices. This has methodological implications for study design and statistical analysis, since clustering often leads to correlation between observations which, if not accounted for, can lead to spurious conclusions of efficacy/effectiveness. Bayesian methodology offers a flexible, intuitive framework to deal with such issues, but its use within CRCT design and analysis appears limited. This review aims to explore and quantify the use of Bayesian methodology in the design and analysis of CRCTs, and appraise the quality of reporting against CONSORT guidelines. METHODS: We sought to identify all reported/published CRCTs that incorporated Bayesian methodology and papers reporting development of new Bayesian methodology in this context, without restriction on publication date or location. We searched Medline and Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Reporting quality metrics according to the CONSORT extension for CRCTs were collected, as well as demographic data, type and nature of Bayesian methodology used, journal endorsement of CONSORT guidelines, and statistician involvement. RESULTS: Twenty-seven publications were included, six from an additional hand search. Eleven (40.7%) were reports of CRCT results: seven (25.9%) were primary results papers and four (14.8%) reported secondary results. Thirteen papers (48.1%) reported Bayesian methodological developments, the remaining three (11.1%) compared different methods. Four (57.1%) of the primary results papers described the method of sample size calculation; none clearly accounted for clustering. Six (85.7%) clearly accounted for clustering in the analysis. All results papers reported use of Bayesian methods in the analysis but none in the design or sample size calculation. CONCLUSIONS: The popularity of the CRCT design has increased rapidly in the last twenty years but this has not been mirrored by an uptake of Bayesian methodology in this context. Of studies using Bayesian methodology, there were some differences in reporting quality compared to CRCTs in general, but this study provided insufficient data to draw firm conclusions. There is an opportunity to further develop Bayesian methodology for the design and analysis of CRCTs in order to expand the accessibility, availability, and, ultimately, use of this approach.

Identification of deliberate catheter motion at the left atrial posterior wall during pulmonary vein isolation: Validity of respiratory motion adjustment.

BACKGROUND: During automated radiofrequency (RF) annotation-guided pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), respiratory motion adjustment (RMA) is recommended, yet lacks in vivo validation. METHODS: Following contact force (CF) PVI (continuous RF, 30 W) using general anesthesia and automated RF annotation-guidance (VISITAG™: force-over-time 100% minimum 1 g; 2 mm position stability; ACCURESP™ RMA "off") in 25 patients, we retrospectively examined RMA settings "on" versus "off" at the left atrial posterior wall (LAPW). RESULTS: Respiratory motion detection occurred in eight, permitting offline retrospective comparison of RMA settings. Significant differences in LAPW RF auto-annotation occurred according to RMA setting, with curves displaying catheter position, CF and impedance data indicating "best-fit" for catheter motion detection using RMA "off." Comparing RMA "on" versus "off," respectively: total annotated sites, 82 versus 98; median RF duration per-site, 13.3 versus 10.6 s (p < 0.0001); median force time integral 177 versus 130 gs (p = 0.0002); mean inter-tag distance (ITD), 6.0 versus 4.8 mm (p = 0.002). Considering LAPW annotated site 1-to-2 transitions resulting from deliberate catheter movement, 3 concurrent with inadvertent 0 g CF demonstrated < 0.6 s difference in RF duration. However, 13 deliberate catheter movements during constant tissue contact (ITD range: 2.1-7.0 mm) demonstrated (mean) site-1 RF duration difference 3.7 s (range: -1.3 to 11.3 s): considering multiple measures of catheter position instability, the appropriate indication of deliberate catheter motion occurred with RMA "off" in all. CONCLUSIONS: ACCURESP™ respiratory motion adjustment importantly delayed the identification of deliberate and clinically relevant catheter motion during LAPW RF delivery, rendering auto-annotated RF display invalid. Operators seeking greater accuracy during auto-annotated RF delivery should avoid RMA use.

Impact of influenza vaccination on amoxicillin prescriptions in older adults: A retrospective cohort study using primary care data.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infections of the upper and lower respiratory tract are a frequent complication of influenza and contribute to the widespread use of antibiotics. Influenza vaccination may help reduce both appropriate and inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics. Electronic health records provide a rich source of information for assessing secondary effects of influenza vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study to estimate effects of influenza vaccine on antibiotic (amoxicillin) prescription in the elderly based on data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The introduction of UK policy to recommend the influenza vaccine to older adults in 2000 led to a substantial increase in uptake, creating a natural experiment. Of 259,753 eligible patients that were unvaccinated in 1999 and aged≥65y by January 2000, 88,519 patients received influenza vaccination in 2000. These were propensity score matched 1:1 to unvaccinated patients. Time-to-amoxicillin was analysed using the Prior Event Rate Ratio (PERR) Pairwise method to address bias from time-invariant measured and unmeasured confounders. A simulation study and negative control outcome were used to help strengthen the validity of results. RESULTS: Compared to unvaccinated patients, those from the vaccinated group were more likely to be prescribed amoxicillin in the year prior to vaccination: hazard ratio (HR) 1.90 (95% confidence interval 1.83, 1.98). Following vaccination, the vaccinated group were again more likely to be prescribed amoxicillin, HR 1.64 (1.58,1.71). After adjusting for prior differences between the two groups using PERR Pairwise, overall vaccine effectiveness was 0.86 (0.81, 0.92). Additional analyses suggested that provided data meet the PERR assumptions, these estimates were robust. CONCLUSIONS: Once differences between groups were taken into account, influenza vaccine had a beneficial effect, lowering the frequency of amoxicillin prescribing in the vaccinated group. Ensuring successful implementation of national programmes of vaccinating older adults against influenza may help contribute to reducing antibiotic resistance.

Randomised controlled trial of an augmented exercise referral scheme using web-based behavioural support for inactive adults with chronic health conditions: the e-coachER trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adding web-based support (e-coachER) to an exercise referral scheme (ERS) increases objectively assessed physical activity (PA). DESIGN: Multicentre trial with participants randomised to usual ERS alone (control) or usual ERS plus e-coachER (intervention). SETTING: Primary care and ERS in three UK sites from 2015 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 450 inactive ERS referees with chronic health conditions. INTERVENTIONS: Participants received a pedometer, PA recording sheets and a user guide for the web-based support. e-coachER interactively encouraged the use of the ERS and other PA options. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary and key secondary outcomes were: objective moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) minutes (in ≥10 min bouts and without bouts), respectively, after 12 months. Secondary outcomes were: other accelerometer-derived and self-reported PA measures, ERS attendance, EQ-5D-5L, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and beliefs about PA. All outcomes were collected at baseline, 4 and 12 months. Primary analysis was an intention to treat comparison between intervention and control arms at 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: There was no significant effect of the intervention on weekly MVPA at 12 months between the groups recorded in ≥10 min bouts (mean difference 11.8 min of MVPA, 95% CI: -2.1 to 26.0; p=0.10) or without bouts (mean difference 13.7 min of MVPA, 95% CI: -26.8 to 54.2; p=0.51) for 232 participants with usable data. There was no difference in the primary or secondary PA outcomes at 4 or 12 months. CONCLUSION: Augmenting ERS referrals with web-based behavioural support had only a weak, non-significant effect on MVPA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15644451.