Crop Growers' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: A Situated Study of Agriculture in Arizona's Verde Valley.

Climate change will pose unprecedented challenges for agricultural producers globally, requiring the ability to adapt to new and unpredictable conditions. This study explores the adaptive capacity of crop growers in the Verde Valley, Arizona (US). Rather than examining pre-determined indicators of adaptive capacity, this study adopts a situated framework that examines material conditions, perceptions, and the larger social context. Interviewers used past experiences and future scenarios to allow factors that enhance or constrain adaptive capacity to emerge from the interviews. Findings reveal adaptation is site specific but general measures can be taken to enhance adaptive capacity. Encouraging diversity in crops and water sources, the use of drought and heat tolerant crops, and the use of water conservation practices will likely increase growers' adaptive capacity. In contrast, lack of support from organizations and government programs, lack of diverse crops and sources of water, lack of awareness about climate change, and growers' confidence in their ability to always adapt impairs adaptive capacity. Verde Valley growers will need increased support from local and national organizations to adapt to projected changes. The situated framework applied in this study reveals important insights and could be used to explore adaptive capacity in other agricultural regions.

The Impact of Federal and State Conservation Programs on Farmer Nitrogen Management.

The U.S. federal government, as well as many state and local governments, operate a number of conservation programs aimed at ameliorating the environmental problems associated with agriculture. While motives and barriers to conservation program participation and adoption of conservation practices have been extensively studied, the direct impacts of programs on ongoing farm operations remains underexplored. To examine the effects of conservation programs on nitrogen management, an aspect of crop production with significant environmental impacts we conducted interviews with 154 corn producers in three Midwestern U.S. states with a range of program experiences. We found that programs shifted farmer N management behavior through three social processes: (1) engaging farmers in the conservation system by introducing them to the state and federal conservation agencies, (2) incentivizing trialing of specific N management practices, and (3) increasing practice adoption through continued program engagement. Working-lands programs were far more effective at shifting on-farm nutrient management practices than land retirement, certification, or outreach-based programs, though all programs had the indirect benefit of increasing farmer familiarity with conservation agencies and programs. Working-lands programs directly motivated practice adoption; including soil testing regimes, implementing nutrient management plans, and splitting nitrogen applications to improving availability; by reducing producer risk and providing technical assistance, especially whole-farm planning. The additional benefits of all programs were moderated by participant selection bias, in particular that program participants were more predisposed to conservation efforts by existing stewardship and innovation attitudes.