Climate-adaptive crop distribution can feed food demand, improve water scarcity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Optimizing crop distribution stands as a pivotal approach to climate change adaption, enhancing crop production sustainability, and has been recognized for its immense potential in ensuring food security while minimizing environmental impacts. Here, we developed a climate-adaptive framework to optimize the distribution of staple crops (i.e., wheat, maize, and rice) to meet the multi-dimensional needs of crop production in China. The framework considers the feasibility of the multiple cropping systems (harvesting more than once on a cropland a year) and adopts a multi-dimensional approach, incorporating goals related to crop production, water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By optimizing, the total irrigated area of three crops would decrease by 7.7 % accompanied by a substantial 69.8 % increase in rain-fed areas compared to the baseline in 2010. This optimized strategy resulted in a notable 10.0 % reduction in total GHG emissions and a 13.1 % decrease in irrigation water consumption while maintaining consistent crop production levels. In 2030, maintaining the existing crop distribution and relying solely on yield growth would lead to a significant maize production shortfall of 27.0 %, highlighting a looming challenge. To address this concern, strategic adjustments were made by reducing irrigated areas for wheat, rice, and maize by 2.3 %, 12.8 %, and 6.1 %, respectively, while simultaneously augmenting rain-fed areas for wheat and maize by 120.2 % and 55.9 %, respectively. These modifications ensure that production demands for all three crops are met, while yielding a 6.9 % reduction in GHG emissions and a 15.1 % reduction in irrigation water consumption. This optimization strategy offers a promising solution to alleviate severe water scarcity issues and secure a sustainable agricultural future, effectively adapting to evolving crop production demands in China.

The heat stress during anthesis and the grain-filling period of spring maize in Northeast China is projected to increase toward the mid-21st century.

BACKGROUND: Against the background of global warming, heat stress has become more frequent, which adversely affects the growth and development of spring maize plants in Northeast China. To adapt the regional maize production to climate change, it is imperative to understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of heat stress. In the present study, we analyzed three of the indices for heat stress, including the number of heat stress days, heating degree days (HDD, the total heat degree-days during critical stages), and the percentage of stations with heat stress. RESULTS: From 1981 to 2019, the number of heat stress days varied greatly among the study years, ranging from 0 to 14 and 27 days, respectively. The average HDD was 7.8 and 5.0 °C day from 1981 to 2000, respectively, and the main hot-spots of heat stress occurred in the southwest regions. Moreover, compared with 1981-2000, the region of HDD during anthesis higher than 10 °C day in 2041-2060 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios increased by 9.1-50.1% and 0.1-28.6%. The average HDD during the critical stages from 2041 to 2060 increased under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, being 1.5 times higher than that during 1981-2000. HDD during maize anthesis and the grain-filling period showed an overall increasing trend with years. About 19% and 58% of the study locations showed heat stress during the past 39 years, respectively. CONCLUSION: Heat stress during anthesis and the grain-filling period for spring maize in Northeast China is projected to increase toward the mid-21st century. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.