Predictive validity of the HCR-20 for inpatient self-harm.

BACKGROUND: Few instruments have been developed to assess the risk of self-harm by psychiatric patients and the evidence for their predictive validity is limited. Given that individuals who self-harm may also engage in other-directed aggression, and that the behaviour can be a precursor to violence, we tested whether, and for which groups, the commonly used violence risk assessment HCR-20 demonstrated predictive validity for self-harm. PROCEDURES: A pseudo-prospective cohort study (N=504) was conducted in a UK secure/forensic mental health setting using routinely collected data. HCR-20 assessments were completed by the clinical team and incidents of self-harm during the 3months following assessment were coded from patient records. FINDINGS: The HCR-20 total score, H10 and R5 subscales, and SJ for violence significantly predicted self-harm; however, AUC values did not demonstrate large effect sizes (range .345 to .749). Personality disorder and impulsivity were the strongest predictors of self-harm, but the R5 scale contained the greatest proportion of relevant items. Predictive efficacy was superior for women compared with men and for those with schizophrenia or personality disorder compared with organic and developmental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The HCR-20 appears to be a significant predictor of self-harm. It may be possible to supplement HCR-20 ratings with case specific knowledge and additional known risk factors for self-harm to make a valuable summary judgement about the behaviour and thus minimise the need for multiple assessment tools.

Differential predictive validity of the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management Scales (HCR-20) for inpatient aggression.

The Historical, Clinical and Risk Management Scales (HCR-20) may be a better predictor of inpatient aggression for selected demographic and clinical groups but homogeneity of study samples has prevented definitive conclusions. The aim of this study, therefore, was to test the predictive validity of the HCR-20 as a function of gender, diagnosis, age, and ethnicity while controlling for potential covariates. A pseudo-prospective cohort study (n=505) was conducted in a UK secure/forensic mental health setting using routinely collected data. The HCR-20 predicted aggression better for women than men, and for people with schizophrenia and/or personality disorder than for other diagnostic groups. In women, the presence of the risk management items (R5) was important while men׳s aggression was best predicted solely by current clinical features from the C5 scale. R5 items were better than C5 items for predicting aggression in people with organic and developmental diagnoses. Our data provide additional information on which HCR-20 raters can formulate overall summary judgements about risk for inpatient aggression based on important demographic and clinical characteristics.