Estimating the population mean for a vertical profile of energy dissipation rate.

Energy dissipation rates are an important characteristic of turbulence; however, their magnitude in observational profiles can be incorrectly determined owing to their irregular appearance during vertical evolution. By analysing the data obtained from oceanic turbulence measurements, we demonstrate that the vertical sequences of energy dissipation rates exhibit a scaling property. Utilising this property, we propose a method to estimate the population mean for a profile. For scaling in the observed profiles, we demonstrate that our data exhibit a statistical property consistent with that exhibited by the universal multifractal model. Meanwhile, the population mean and its uncertainty can be estimated by inverting the probability distribution obtained by Monte Carlo simulations of a cascade model; to this end, observational constraints from several moments are imposed over each vertical sequence. This approach enables us to determine, to some extent, whether a profile shows an occasionally large mean or whether the population mean itself is large. Thus, it will contribute to the refinement of the regional estimation of the ocean energy budget, where only a small amount of turbulence observation data is available.

Coarse-grained sensitivity for multiscale data assimilation.

We show that the effective average action and its gradient are useful for solving multiscale data assimilation problems. We also present a procedure for numerically evaluating the gradient of the effective average action and demonstrate that the variational problem for slow degrees of freedom can be solved properly using the effective gradient.

Improvement of ocean state estimation by assimilating mapped Argo drift data.

We investigated the impact of assimilating a mapped dataset of subsurface ocean currents into an ocean state estimation. We carried out two global ocean state estimations from 2000 to 2007 using the K7 four-dimensional variational data synthesis system, one of which included an additional map of climatological geostrophic currents estimated from the global set of Argo floats. We assessed the representativeness of the volume transport in the two exercises. The assimilation of Argo ocean current data at only one level, 1000 dbar depth, had subtle impacts on the estimated volume transports, which were strongest in the subtropical North Pacific. The corrections at 10(°)N, where the impact was most notable, arose through the nearly complete offset of wind stress curl by the data synthesis system in conjunction with the first mode baroclinic Rossby wave adjustment. Our results imply that subsurface current data can be effective for improving the estimation of global oceanic circulation by a data synthesis.

Simulated rapid warming of abyssal North Pacific waters.

Recent observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom-water warming. However, the mechanisms causing such warming remain poorly understood, and their time scales are uncertain. Here, we report computer simulations that reveal a fast teleconnection between changes in the surface air-sea heat flux off the Adélie Coast of Antarctica and the bottom-water warming in the North Pacific. In contrast to conventional estimates of a multicentennial time scale, this link is established over only four decades through the action of internal waves. Changes in the heat content of the deep ocean are thus far more sensitive to the air-sea thermal interchanges than previously considered. Our findings require a reassessment of the role of the Southern Ocean in determining the impact of atmospheric warming on deep oceanic waters.

Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction.

Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales, in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.