Predictors of Non-Variceal Hemorrhage in a National Cohort of Patients With Chronic Liver Disease.

Background: Non-variceal hemorrhage in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) increases morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. There are limited data on risk factors for non-variceal hemorrhage in the CLD population. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of various clinical and laboratory parameters for non-variceal hemorrhage in CLD patients. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of US veterans diagnosed with CLD between 2002 and 2018 within the Veterans Health Administration database. We derived candidate variables from existing risk prediction models for hemorrhage, risk calculators for severity of liver disease, Charlson index of prognostic comorbidities, and prior literature. We used a competing risk analysis to study the relationship between putative risk factors and incidence of non-variceal hemorrhage in patients with CLD. Results: Of 15,183 CLD patients with no history of cancer or anticoagulation use, 674 experienced non-variceal hemorrhage within 1 year of CLD diagnosis. In multivariable analysis, 11 of the 26 candidate variables independently predicted non-variceal hemorrhage: race, international normalized ratio (INR) > 1.5, bilirubin ≥ 2 mg/dL, albumin ≤ 3.5 g/dL, anemia, alcohol abuse, antiplatelet therapy, chronic kidney disease, dementia, proton pump inhibitor prescription, and recent infection. Conclusions: In this study of almost 15,000 veterans, risk factors for non-variceal bleeding within the first year after diagnosis of CLD included non-Caucasian race, laboratory parameters indicating severe liver disease and recent infection in addition to the risk factors for bleeding observed in a general non-CLD population.

Different risks of hemorrhage in patients with elevated international normalized ratio from chronic liver disease versus warfarin therapy, a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) often present with an elevated international normalized ratio (INR). Although elevated INR reflects a higher risk of hemorrhage among warfarin users, its clinical significance in CLD patients is less clear. OBJECTIVES: We used Veterans Health Administration data to quantify the association between INR and (non-variceal) hemorrhage in patients with CLD compared to warfarin users. METHODS: We performed a multivariate competing risk analysis to study the association between INR and hemorrhage in the two cohorts. We used an interaction term between INR and cohort (CLD/warfarin users) to test if INR had different effects on hemorrhage in the two cohorts. RESULTS: Data from 80 134 patients (14, 412 with CLD and 65, 722 taking warfarin) were analyzed. The effect of INR on the risk of hemorrhage differed between CLD patients and warfarin users (interaction P < .001). As INR increased above 1.5, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for hemorrhage in CLD patients increased to 2.25 but remained fairly constant with further elevation of INR values. In contrast, the risk of hemorrhage in patients taking warfarin remained low with INR in the subtherapeutic (INR <2.0) and therapeutic ranges (INR 2.0-3.0), and increased exponentially with INR in the supratherapeutic range (aHR 1.64 with INR >3.0-3.5, and 4.70 with INR >3.5). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between INR and risk of hemorrhage in CLD patients is different from that in warfarin users. Caution should be exercised extrapolating data from warfarin users to make clinical decisions in CLD patients.

Splanchnic vein thrombosis predicts worse survival in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Pancreatic cancer is a thrombogenic malignancy with nearly half of venous thrombotic events occurring in the splanchnic circulation. The effect of splanchnic vein thrombosis on mortality in pancreatic cancer is unknown. We studied the effect of splanchnic vein thrombosis on mortality in veterans with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and explored the association of anticoagulant therapy on mortality and hemorrhage. METHODS: Using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes, we identified eligible patients and outcomes in the Veterans Health Administration database. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we analyzed the association between splanchnic vein thrombosis and mortality among patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. We used propensity score inverse probability-of-treatment weighting to balance the groups who did and did not receive anticoagulation. To understand the role of anticoagulant therapy, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze mortality and competing risk analysis to assess the risk of hemorrhage. RESULTS: Of the patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (N = 6164), 122 developed splanchnic vein thrombosis. Splanchnic vein thrombosis was associated with a two-fold increase in mortality, aHR 2.02, 95% CI 1.65-2.47. The finding held true after restricting the analysis to patients undergoing treatment for pancreatic cancer, and after adjusting for immortal time bias by a 30-day landmark analysis. Anticoagulant therapy did not affect mortality (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.65-1.51), and increased the risk of hemorrhage (aHR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02-7.07). CONCLUSION: Splanchnic vein thrombosis predicts worse survival in patients with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Anticoagulant therapy may not mitigate this increased mortality, and increases the risk of hemorrhage.