Colorectal cancer screening uptake and adherence by modality at a large tertiary care center in the United States: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Real-world data is crucial to inform existing opportunistic colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention programs. This study aimed to assess CRC screening adherence and utilization of various screening modalities within a Primary Care network over a three-year period (2017-2019). METHODS: A retrospective review of individuals aged 50-75 years at average CRC risk, with at least one clinic visit in the previous 24 months. The primary outcome, CRC screening adherence (overall and by modality) was examined among the entire eligible population and newly adherent individuals each calendar year. The final sample included 107,366 patients and 218,878 records. RESULTS: Overall CRC screening adherence increased from 71% in 2017 to 78% in 2019. For "up-to-date" individuals, colonoscopy was the predominant modality (accounting for approximately 74%, versus 4% of adherence for non-invasive options). However, modality utilization trends changed over time in these individuals: mt-sDNA increased 10.2-fold, followed by FIT (1.6-fold) and colonoscopy (1.1-fold). Among newly adherent individuals, the proportion screened by colonoscopy and FOBT decreased over time (89% to 80% and 2.4% to 1.2%, respectively), while uptake of FIT and mt-sDNA increased (7.7% to 11.5% and 0.9% to 6.8%, respectively). Notably, FIT and mt-sDNA increases were most evident in age and race-ethnicity groups with the lowest screening rates. CONCLUSIONS: In an opportunistic CRC screening program, adherence increased but remained below the national 80% goal. While colonoscopy remained the most utilized modality, new colonoscopy uptake declined, compared with rising mt-sDNA and FIT utilization. Among minority populations, new uptake increased most with mt-sDNA and FIT.

Colon Polyp Surveillance: Separating the Wheat From the Chaff.

One goal of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is to prevent CRC incidence by removing precancerous colonic polyps, which are detected in up to 50% of screening examinations. Yet, the lifetime risk of CRC is 3.9%-4.3%, so it is clear that most of these individuals with polyps would not develop CRC in their lifetime. It is, therefore, a challenge to determine which individuals with polyps will benefit from follow-up, and at what intervals. There is some evidence that individuals with advanced polyps, based on size and histology, benefit from intensive surveillance. However, a large proportion of individuals will have small polyps without advanced histologic features (ie, "nonadvanced"), where the benefits of surveillance are uncertain and controversial. Demand for surveillance will further increase as more polyps are detected due to increased screening uptake, recent United States recommendations to expand screening to younger individuals, and emergence of polyp detection technology. We review the current understanding and clinical implications of the natural history, biology, and outcomes associated with various categories of colon polyps based on size, histology, and number. Our aims are to highlight key knowledge gaps, specifically focusing on certain categories of polyps that may not be associated with future CRC risk, and to provide insights to inform research priorities and potential management strategies. Optimization of CRC prevention programs based on updated knowledge about the future risks associated with various colon polyps is essential to ensure cost-effective screening and surveillance, wise use of resources, and inform efforts to personalize recommendations.

Development and Validation of an Electronic Adverse Event Model for Patient Safety Surveillance in Interventional Radiology.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive adverse event (AE) surveillance programs in interventional radiology (IR) are rare. Our aim was to develop and validate a retrospective electronic surveillance model to identify outpatient IR procedures that are likely to have an AE, to support patient safety and quality improvement. METHODS: We identified outpatient IR procedures performed in the period from October 2017 to September 2019 from the Veterans Health Administration (n = 135,283) and applied electronic triggers based on posyprocedure care to flag cases with a potential AE. From the trigger-flagged cases, we randomly sampled n = 1,500 for chart review to identify AEs. We also randomly sampled n = 600 from the unflagged cases. Chart-reviewed cases were merged with patient, procedure, and facility factors to estimate a mixed-effects logistic regression model designed to predict whether an AE occurred. Using model fit and criterion validity, we determined the best predicted probability threshold to identify cases with a likely AE. We reviewed a random sample of 200 cases above the threshold and 100 cases from below the threshold from October 2019 to March 2020 (n = 20,849) for model validation. RESULTS: In our development sample of mostly trigger-flagged cases, 444 of 2,096 cases (21.8%) had an AE. The optimal predicted probability threshold for a likely AE from our surveillance model was >50%, with positive predictive value of 68.9%, sensitivity of 38.3%, and specificity of 95.3%. In validation, chart-reviewed cases with AE probability >50% had a positive predictive value of 63% (n = 203). For the period from October 2017 to March 2020, the model identified approximately 70 IR cases per month that were likely to have an AE. CONCLUSIONS: This electronic trigger-based approach to AE surveillance could be used for patient-safety reporting and quality review.

Baseline Features and Reasons for Nonparticipation in the Colonoscopy Versus Fecal Immunochemical Test in Reducing Mortality From Colorectal Cancer (CONFIRM) Study, a Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial.

Importance: The Colonoscopy Versus Fecal Immunochemical Test in Reducing Mortality From Colorectal Cancer (CONFIRM) randomized clinical trial sought to recruit 50 000 adults into a study comparing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality outcomes after randomization to either an annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy. Objective: To (1) describe study participant characteristics and (2) examine who declined participation because of a preference for colonoscopy or stool testing (ie, fecal occult blood test [FOBT]/FIT) and assess that preference's association with geographic and temporal factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study within CONFIRM, which completed enrollment through 46 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers between May 22, 2012, and December 1, 2017, with follow-up planned through 2028, comprised veterans aged 50 to 75 years with an average CRC risk and due for screening. Data were analyzed between March 7 and December 5, 2022. Exposure: Case report forms were used to capture enrolled participant data and reasons for declining participation among otherwise eligible individuals. Main Outcomes and Measures: Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the cohort overall and by intervention. Among individuals declining participation, logistic regression was used to compare preference for FOBT/FIT or colonoscopy by recruitment region and year. Results: A total of 50 126 participants were recruited (mean [SD] age, 59.1 [6.9] years; 46 618 [93.0%] male and 3508 [7.0%] female). The cohort was racially and ethnically diverse, with 748 (1.5%) identifying as Asian, 12 021 (24.0%) as Black, 415 (0.8%) as Native American or Alaska Native, 34 629 (69.1%) as White, and 1877 (3.7%) as other race, including multiracial; and 5734 (11.4%) as having Hispanic ethnicity. Of the 11 109 eligible individuals who declined participation (18.0%), 4824 (43.4%) declined due to a stated preference for a specific screening test, with FOBT/FIT being the most preferred method (2820 [58.5%]) vs colonoscopy (1958 [40.6%]; P < .001) or other screening tests (46 [1.0%] P < .001). Preference for FOBT/FIT was strongest in the West (963 of 1472 [65.4%]) and modest elsewhere, ranging from 199 of 371 (53.6%) in the Northeast to 884 of 1543 (57.3%) in the Midwest (P = .001). Adjusting for region, the preference for FOBT/FIT increased by 19% per recruitment year (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14-1.25). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional analysis of veterans choosing nonenrollment in the CONFIRM study, those who declined participation more often preferred FOBT or FIT over colonoscopy. This preference increased over time and was strongest in the western US and may provide insight into trends in CRC screening preferences.

Arteriovenous Graft Failure in the Veterans Health Administration: Outcome Disparities Associated with Race.

Background Vascular access for ongoing hemodialysis often fails, frequently requiring repeated procedures to maintain vascular patency. While research has shown racial discrepancies in multiple aspects of renal failure treatment, there is poor understanding of how these factors might relate to vascular access maintenance procedures after arteriovenous graft (AVG) placement. Purpose To evaluate racial disparities associated with premature vascular access failure after percutaneous access maintenance procedures following AVG placement using a retrospective national cohort from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Materials and Methods All hemodialysis vascular maintenance procedures performed at VHA hospitals between October 2016 and March 2020 were identified. To ensure the sample represented patients who consistently used the VHA, patients without AVG placement within 5 years of their first maintenance procedure were excluded. Access failure was defined as a repeat access maintenance procedure or as hemodialysis catheter placement occurring 1-30 days after the index procedure. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate prevalence ratios (PRs) measuring the association between hemodialysis maintenance failure and African American race compared with all other races. Models controlled for vascular access history, patient socioeconomic status, and procedure and facility characteristics. Results In total, 1950 access maintenance procedures in 995 patients (mean age, 69 years ± 9 [SD], 1870 men) with an AVG created in one of 61 VHA facilities were identified. Most procedures involved African American patients (1169 of 1950, 60%) and patients residing in the South (1002 of 1950, 51%). Premature access failure occurred in 215 of 1950 (11%) procedures. When compared with all other races, African American race was associated with premature access site failure (PR, 1.4; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.43; P = .02). Among the 1057 procedures in 30 facilities with interventional radiology resident training programs, there was no evidence of racial disparity in the outcome (PR, 1.1; P = .63). Conclusion African American race was associated with higher risk-adjusted rates of premature arteriovenous graft failure after dialysis maintenance. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Forman and Davis in this issue.

Colorectal Neoplasia in CDH1 Pathogenic Variant Carriers: A Multicenter Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Germline variants in CDH1 are associated with elevated risks of diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. It is uncertain whether there is an increased risk of colorectal neoplasia. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of colonoscopy outcomes in patients with germline CDH1 pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients were included with a mean age of 46.9 years. Initial colonoscopy found adenomatous polyps in 30 patients (35.3%), including advanced adenomas in 9 (10.6%). No colorectal cancers were identified on index or subsequent colonoscopies (when available). DISCUSSION: CDH1 carriers have colorectal neoplasia identified at similar rates as in the general population. Despite potential difficulties after gastrectomy, colorectal cancer screening remains important in this population.

Longitudinal assessment of colonoscopy adverse events in the prospective Cooperative Studies Program no. 380 colorectal cancer screening and surveillance cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data are limited regarding colonoscopy risk during long-term, programmatic colorectal cancer screening and follow-up. We aimed to describe adverse events during follow-up in a colonoscopy screening program after the baseline examination and examine factors associated with increased risk. METHODS: Cooperative Studies Program no. 380 includes 3121 asymptomatic veterans aged 50 to 75 years who underwent screening colonoscopy between 1994 and 1997. Periprocedure adverse events requiring significant intervention were defined as major events (other events were minor) and were tracked during follow-up for at least 10 years. Multivariable odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for factors associated with risk of follow-up adverse events. RESULTS: Of 3727 follow-up examinations in 1983 participants, adverse events occurred in 105 examinations (2.8%) in 93 individuals, including 22 major and 87 minor events (examinations may have had >1 event). Incidence of major events (per 1000 examinations) remained relatively stable over time, with 6.1 events at examination 2, 4.8 at examination 3, and 7.2 at examination 4. Examinations with major events included 1 perforation, 3 GI bleeds requiring intervention, and 17 cardiopulmonary events. History of prior colonoscopic adverse events was associated with increased risk of events (major or minor) during follow-up (OR, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.6). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term programmatic screening and surveillance was safe, as major events were rare during follow-up. However, serious cardiopulmonary events were the most common major events. These results highlight the need for detailed assessments of comorbid conditions during routine clinical practice, which could help inform individual decisions regarding the utility of ongoing colonoscopy follow-up.

Cause, Epidemiology, and Histology of Polyps and Pathways to Colorectal Cancer.

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-associated mortality, with a lifetime risk of approximately 4% to 5%. Colorectal cancer develops from the sequential acquisition of defined genetic mutations in the colonic epithelium. Tumorigenesis from normal tissue to cancer occurs largely through 3 pathways: the chromosomal instability pathway, the microsatellite instability pathway, and the sessile serrated pathway. Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality have decreased by approximately 35% since the beginning of screening programs in the 1990s, although other factors such as use of aspirin for coronary disease prevention and decreased smoking rates may also be important. In this review, we discuss the etiology, epidemiology, and histology of colorectal polyps and cancer.

Screening Colonoscopy Findings Are Associated With Noncolorectal Cancer Mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Controversy exists regarding the impact of various risk factors on noncolorectal cancer (CRC) mortality in healthy screening populations. We examined the impact of known CRC risk factors, including baseline colonoscopy findings, on non-CRC mortality in a screening population. METHODS: Cooperative Studies Program (CSP) #380 is comprised of 3,121 veterans aged 50-75 years who underwent screening colonoscopy from 1994 to 97 and were then followed for at least 10 years or until death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for risk factors on non-CRC mortality were estimated by multivariate Cox proportional hazards. RESULTS: Current smoking (HR 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78-2.52, compared with nonsmokers) and physical activity (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.93) were the modifiable factors most associated with non-CRC mortality in CSP#380. In addition, compared with no neoplasia at baseline colonoscopy, non-CRC mortality was higher in participants with ≥3 small adenomas (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.06-1.94), advanced adenomas (HR 1.32, 95% CI 0.99-1.75), and CRC (HR 2.95, 95% CI 0.98-8.85). Those with 1-2 small adenomas were not at increased risk for non-CRC mortality (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.94-1.4). DISCUSSION: In a CRC screening population, known modifiable risk factors were significantly associated with 10-year non-CRC mortality. Furthermore, those who died from non-CRC causes within 10 years were more likely to have had high-risk findings at baseline colonoscopy. These results suggest that advanced colonoscopy findings may be a risk marker of poor health outcomes. Integrated efforts are needed to motivate healthy lifestyle changes during CRC screening, particularly in those with high-risk colonoscopy findings and unaddressed risk factors.

Ten or More Cumulative Lifetime Adenomas Are Associated with Increased Risk for Advanced Neoplasia and Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend frequent colonoscopies and consideration of genetic testing in individuals with ≥10 cumulative adenomas. However, it is unclear how these guidelines apply to routine practice. AIMS: We estimated the proportion of participants found to have ≥10 cumulative adenomas in a screening population and described their outcomes of advanced neoplasia (AN), CRC, and extra-colonic malignancy. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of VA CSP#380, which includes 3121 veterans aged 50-75 who were followed up to 10 years after screening colonoscopy. We calculated the cumulative risk of ≥10 cumulative adenomas by Kaplan-Meier method. We compared baseline risk factors in those with and without ≥10 cumulative adenomas as well as the risk for AN (adenoma ≥1 cm, villous adenoma or high-grade dysplasia, or CRC) and extra-colonic malignancy by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of ≥10 cumulative adenomas over 10.5 years was 6.51% (95% CI 4.38%-9.62%). Age 60-69 or 70-75 at baseline colonoscopy was the only factors associated with the finding of ≥10 cumulative adenomas. Compared to those with 0-9 cumulative adenomas, participants with ≥10 cumulative adenomas were more likely to have had AN (OR 17.03; 95% CI 9.41-30.84), including CRC (OR 7.00; 95% CI 2.84-17.28), but not extra-colonic malignancies. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 6.5% of participants in this screening population were found to have ≥10 cumulative adenomas over 10.5 years, which was uncommon before age 60. These participants were found to have AN and CRC significantly more often compared to those with lower cumulative adenomas.

Characterizing chronological accumulation of comorbidities in healthy veterans: a computational approach.

Understanding patient accumulation of comorbidities can facilitate healthcare strategy and personalized preventative care. We applied a directed network graph to electronic health record (EHR) data and characterized comorbidities in a cohort of healthy veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy. The Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program #380 was a prospective longitudinal study of screening and surveillance colonoscopy. We identified initial instances of three-digit ICD-9 diagnoses for participants with at least 5 years of linked EHR history (October 1999 to December 2015). For diagnoses affecting at least 10% of patients, we calculated pairwise chronological relative risk (RR). iGraph was used to produce directed graphs of comorbidities with RR > 1, as well as summary statistics, key diseases, and communities. A directed graph based on 2210 patients visualized longitudinal development of comorbidities. Top hub (preceding) diseases included ischemic heart disease, inflammatory and toxic neuropathy, and diabetes. Top authority (subsequent) diagnoses were acute kidney failure and hypertensive chronic kidney failure. Four communities of correlated comorbidities were identified. Close analysis of top hub and authority diagnoses demonstrated known relationships, correlated sequelae, and novel hypotheses. Directed network graphs portray chronologic comorbidity relationships. We identified relationships between comorbid diagnoses in this aging veteran cohort. This may direct healthcare prioritization and personalized care.

Genetic Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Risk Variants Are Associated with Increasing Cumulative Adenoma Counts.

BACKGROUND: The genetic basis for most individuals with high cumulative lifetime colonic adenomas is unknown. We investigated associations between known colorectal cancer-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and increasing cumulative adenoma counts. METHODS: The Cooperative Studies Program #380 screening colonoscopy cohort includes 612 selected participants age 50 to 75 with genotyped blood samples and 10 years of clinical follow-up. We evaluated 41 published "colorectal cancer-risk SNPs" for associations with individual cumulative adenoma counts or having ≥10 cumulative adenomas. SNPs were analyzed singly or combined in a polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was constructed from eight published SNPs associated with multiple adenomas, termed "adenoma-risk SNPs." RESULTS: Four colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts (P < 0.05): rs12241008 (gene: VTI1A), rs2423279 (BMP2/HAO1), rs3184504 (SH2B3), and rs961253 (FERMT1/BMP2), with risk allele risk ratios of 1.31, 1.29, 1.24, and 1.23, respectively. Three colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with ≥10 cumulative adenomas (P < 0.05), with risk allele odds ratios of 2.09 (rs3184504), 2.30 (rs961253), and 1.94 (rs3217901). A weighted PRS comprised of adenoma-risk SNPs was associated with higher cumulative adenomas (weighted rate ratio = 1.57; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this mostly male veteran colorectal cancer screening cohort, several known colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts and the finding of ≥10 cumulative adenomas. In addition, an increasing burden of adenoma-risk SNPs, measured by a weighted PRS, was associated with higher cumulative adenomas. IMPACT: Future work will seek to validate these findings in different populations and then augment current colorectal cancer risk prediction tools with precancerous, adenoma genetic data.

High-Risk Adenomas at Screening Colonoscopy Remain Predictive of Future High-Risk Adenomas Despite an Intervening Negative Colonoscopy.

INTRODUCTION: Limited data inform the current postpolypectomy surveillance guidelines, which suggest a shortened interval to third colonoscopy after a negative second examination if high-risk adenomas (HRA) were present on the initial screening colonoscopy. Therefore, we examined the risk of HRA at third colonoscopy stratified by findings on 2 previous examinations in a prospective screening colonoscopy cohort of US veterans. METHODS: We identified participants who had 3 or more colonoscopies from CSP#380. We examined the risk of HRA on the third examination based on findings from the previous 2 examinations. Multivariate logistic regression was used to adjust for multiple covariates. RESULTS: HRA were found at the third examination in 114 (12.8%) of 891 participants. Those with HRA on both previous examinations had the greatest incidence of HRA at third examination (14/56, 25.0%). Compared with those with no adenomas on both previous examinations, participants with HRA on the first examination remained at significantly increased risk for HRA at the third examination at 3 years after a negative second examination (odds ratio [OR] 3.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-9.08), 5 years (OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.49-6.61), and 7 years (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.08-7.74). DISCUSSION: In a screening population, HRA on the first examination identified individuals who remained at increased risk for HRA at the third examination, even after a negative second examination. This finding supports current colorectal cancer surveillance guidelines, which suggest a shortened, 5-year time interval to third colonoscopy after a negative second examination if high-risk findings were present on the baseline examination.

Baseline Colonoscopy Findings Associated With 10-Year Outcomes in a Screening Cohort Undergoing Colonoscopy Surveillance.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few studies have evaluated long-term outcomes of ongoing colonoscopic screening and surveillance in a screening population. We aimed to determine the 10-year risk for advanced neoplasia (defined as adenomas ≥10mm, adenomas with villous histology or high-grade dysplasia, or colorectal cancer [CRC]) and assessed whether baseline colonoscopy findings were associated with long-term outcomes. METHODS: We collected data from the Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program Study on 3121 asymptomatic veterans (50-75 years old) who underwent a screening colonoscopy from 1994 through 1997 at 13 medical centers and were then followed for 10 years or until death. We included 1915 subjects with at least 1 surveillance colonoscopy and estimated cumulative incidence of advanced neoplasia by Kaplan-Meier curves. We then fit a longitudinal joint model to estimate risk of advanced neoplasia at each subsequent examination after baseline, adjusting for multiple colonoscopies within individuals. RESULTS: Through 10 years of follow-up, there were 146 individuals among all baseline colonoscopy groups found to have at least 1 incident advanced neoplasia. The cumulative 10-year incidence of advanced neoplasia was highest among those with baseline CRC (43.7%; 95% CI 13.0%-74.4%), followed by those with baseline advanced adenoma (AA) (21.9%; 95% CI 15.7-28.1). The cumulative 10-year incidence of advanced neoplasia was 6.3% (95% CI 4.1%-8.5%) and 4.1% (95% CI 2.7%-5.4%) for baseline 1 to 2 small adenomas (<1cm, and without villous histology or high-grade dysplasia) and no neoplasia, respectively (log-rank P = .10). After adjusting for prior surveillance, the risk of advanced neoplasia at each subsequent examination was not significantly increased in veterans with 1 or 2 small adenomas at baseline (odds ratio 0.96; 95% CI 0.67-1.41) compared with veterans with no baseline neoplasia. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline screening colonoscopy findings associate with advanced neoplasia within 10 years. Individuals with only 1 or 2 small adenomas at baseline have a low risk of advanced neoplasia over 10 years. Alternative surveillance strategies, could be considered for these individuals.

Advanced neoplasia in Veterans at screening colonoscopy using the National Cancer Institute Risk Assessment Tool.

BACKGROUND: Adapting screening strategy to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may improve efficiency for all stakeholders however limited tools for such risk stratification exist. Colorectal cancers usually evolve from advanced neoplasms that are present for years. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool, which calculates future risk of CRC, to determine whether it could be used to predict current advanced neoplasia (AN) in a veteran cohort undergoing a baseline screening colonoscopy. METHODS: This was a prospective assessment of the relationship between future CRC risk predicted by the NCI tool, and the presence of AN at screening colonoscopy. Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at the time of screening colonoscopy and used to calculate absolute CRC risk at 5, 10 and 20 years. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed. RESULTS: Of 3121 veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy, 94% had complete data available to calculate risk (N = 2934, median age 63 years, 100% men, and 15% minorities). Prevalence of AN at baseline screening colonoscopy was 11 % (N = 313). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 5 years, AN prevalences were 6.54% (95% CI, 4.99, 8.09), 11.26% (95% CI, 9.28-13.24), and 14.21% (95% CI, 12.02-16.40). For tertiles of estimated risk at 10 years, the prevalences were 6.34% (95% CI, 4.81-7.87), 11.25% (95% CI, 9.27-13.23), and 14.42% (95% CI, 12.22-16.62). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 20 years, current AN prevalences were 7.54% (95% CI, 5.75-9.33), 10.53% (95% CI, 8.45-12.61), and 12.44% (95% CI, 10.2-14.68). The area under the curve for predicting current AN was 0.60 (95% CI; 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 5 years, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 10 years and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61, p < 0.0001) at 20 years. CONCLUSION: The NCI tool had modest discriminatory function for estimating the presence of current advanced neoplasia in veterans undergoing a first screening colonoscopy. These findings are comparable to other clinically utilized cancer risk prediction models and may be used to inform the benefit-risk assessment of screening, particularly for patients with competing comorbidities and lower risk, for whom a non-invasive screening approach is preferred.