Symptoms and laboratory manifestations of mild COVID-19 in a repatriated cruise ship cohort.

Much of our current understanding about novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comes from hospitalised patients. However, the spectrum of mild and subclinical disease has implications for population-level screening and control. Forty-nine participants were recruited from a group of 99 adults repatriated from a cruise ship with a high incidence of COVID-19. Respiratory and rectal swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Sera were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and microneutralisation assay. Symptoms, viral shedding and antibody response were examined. Forty-five participants (92%) were considered cases based on either positive PCR or positive ELISA for immunoglobulin G. Forty-two percent of cases were asymptomatic. Only 15% of symptomatic cases reported fever. Serial respiratory and rectal swabs were positive for 10% and 5% of participants respectively about 3 weeks after median symptom onset. Cycle threshold values were high (range 31-45). Attempts to isolate live virus were unsuccessful. The presence of symptoms was not associated with demographics, comorbidities or antibody response. In closed settings, incidence of COVID-19 could be almost double that suggested by symptom-based screening. Serology may be useful in diagnosis of mild disease and in aiding public health investigations.

Constructing an ethical framework for priority allocation of pandemic vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of scarce resources during a pandemic extends to the allocation of vaccines when they eventually become available. We describe a framework for priority vaccine allocation that employed a cross-disciplinary approach, guided by ethical considerations and informed by local risk assessment. METHODS: Published and grey literature was reviewed, and augmented by consultation with key informants, to collate past experience, existing guidelines and emerging strategies for pandemic vaccine deployment. Identified ethical issues and decision-making processes were also included. Concurrently, simulation modelling studies estimated the likely impacts of alternative vaccine allocation approaches. Assembled evidence was presented to a workshop of national experts in pandemic preparedness, vaccine strategy, implementation and ethics. All of this evidence was then used to generate a proposed ethical framework for vaccine priorities best suited to the Australian context. FINDINGS: Published and emerging guidance for priority pandemic vaccine distribution differed widely with respect to strategic objectives, specification of target groups, and explicit discussion of ethical considerations and decision-making processes. Flexibility in response was universally emphasised, informed by real-time assessment of the pandemic impact level, and identification of disproportionately affected groups. Model outputs aided identification of vaccine approaches most likely to achieve overarching goals in pandemics of varying transmissibility and severity. Pandemic response aims deemed most relevant for an Australian framework were: creating and maintaining trust, promoting equity, and reducing harmful outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Defining clear and ethically-defendable objectives for pandemic response in context aids development of flexible and adaptive decision support frameworks and facilitates clear communication and engagement activities.

Using routine testing data to understand circulation patterns of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory viruses in Victoria, Australia.

Several studies have reported evidence of interference between respiratory viruses: respiratory viruses rarely reach their epidemic peak concurrently and there appears to be a negative association between infection with one respiratory virus and co-infection with another. We used results spanning 16 years (2002-2017) of a routine diagnostic multiplex panel that tests for nine respiratory viruses to further investigate these interactions in Victoria, Australia. Time series analyses were used to plot the proportion positive for each virus. The seasonality of all viruses included was compared with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza A virus using cross-correlations. Logistic regression was used to explore the likelihood of co-infection with one virus given infection with another. Seasonal peaks were observed each year for influenza A and RSV and less frequently for influenza B, coronavirus and parainfluenza virus. RSV circulated an average of 6 weeks before influenza A. Co-infection with another respiratory virus was less common with picornavirus, RSV or influenza A infection. Our findings provide further evidence of a temporal relationship in the circulation of respiratory viruses. A greater understanding of the interaction between respiratory viruses may enable better prediction of the timing and magnitude of respiratory virus epidemics.

Prior exposure to immunogenic peptides found in human influenza A viruses may influence the age distribution of cases with avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9 virus infections.

The epidemiology of H5N1 and H7N9 avian viruses of humans infected in China differs despite both viruses being avian reassortants that have inherited six internal genes from a common ancestor, H9N2. The median age of infected populations is substantially younger for H5N1 virus (26 years) compared with H7N9 virus (63 years). Population susceptibility to infection with seasonal influenza is understood to be influenced by cross-reactive CD8+ T cells directed towards immunogenic peptides derived from internal viral proteins which may provide some level of protection against further influenza infection. Prior exposure to seasonal influenza peptides may influence the age-related infection patterns observed for H5N1 and H7N9 viruses. A comparison of relatedness of immunogenic peptides between historical human strains and the two avian emerged viruses was undertaken for a possible explanation in the differences in age incidence observed. There appeared to be some relationship between past exposure to related peptides and the lower number of H5N1 virus cases in older populations, however the relationship between prior exposure and older populations among H7N9 virus patients was less clear.

A severe 2017 influenza season dominated by influenza A(H3N2), Victoria, Australia.

Surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza in Victoria, Australia is undertaken jointly by the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory and the Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services from May to October each year. Surveillance data comprise notifiable laboratory-confirmed influenza and ILI reporting from from two sources - a general practice sentinel surveillance programme and a locum service. The magnitude of the 2017 influenza season was high in Victoria with widespread circulation of influenza type A(H3N2), which peaked in September. A record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were notified, and the proportion of ILI cases to total consultations from both the general practice and locum service were higher than previous years. Notified cases of influenza A were older than influenza B cases with 25% compared to 17% aged more than 65 years, respectively. The proportion of swabs that were positive for influenza peaked at 58%. Antigenic characterization suggested a good match between the circulating and vaccine strains of influenza A(H3N2). Most of the increases observed in notified cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza in recent years in Victoria have been attributed to increases in testing. However, that cases of ILI also increased in Victoria in 2017 is suggestive that 2017 was a relatively severe season. The dominance of influenza type A(H3N2), the extended duration of elevated activity, and a potential phylogenetic mismatch of vaccine to circulating strains are likely to have contributed to the relative severity of the 2017 season. Victoria is Australia's second most populous state and is the mainland's southernmost state. It has a temperate climate with an influenza season usually occurring in the cooler months between May and October. The Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL), in partnership with the Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), coordinates influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance in Victoria. There are three data sources included in the influenza surveillance system.

Epidemiology of seasonal influenza infection in pregnant women and its impact on birth outcomes.

Seasonal influenza can cause significant morbidity in pregnant women. Much of the existing epidemiological evidence on influenza during pregnancy has focused on the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. To measure the epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza infection among pregnant women and the impact on infant health, a cohort of 86 779 pregnancies during the influenza season (2012-2014) was established using probabilistic linkage of notifiable infectious disease, hospital admission, and birth information. A total of 192 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections were identified (2·2 per 1000 pregnancies), 14·6% of which were admitted to hospital. There was no difference in the proportion of infections admitted to hospital by trimester or subtype of infection. Influenza B infections were more likely to occur in second trimester compared with influenza A/H3N2 and influenza A/H1N1 infections (41·3%, 23·6%, and 33·3%, respectively), and on average, infants born to women with influenza B during pregnancy had 4·0% (95% CI 0·3-7·6%) lower birth weight relative to optimal compared with infants born to uninfected women (P = 0·03). Results from this linked population-based study suggest that there are differences in maternal infection by virus type and subtype and support the provision of seasonal influenza vaccine to pregnant women.

Pooled influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates for Australia, 2012-2014.

Data were pooled from three Australian sentinel general practice influenza surveillance networks to estimate Australia-wide influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against community presentations for laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness at participating GP practices were swabbed and tested for influenza. The vaccination odds of patients testing positive were compared with patients testing negative to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by logistic regression, adjusting for age group, week of presentation and network. Pooling of data across Australia increased the sample size for estimation from a minimum of 684 to 3,683 in 2012, from 314 to 2,042 in 2013 and from 497 to 3,074 in 2014. Overall VE was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24-49] in 2012, 60% (95% CI 45-70) in 2013 and 44% (95% CI 31-55) in 2014. For A(H1N1)pdm09 VE was 54% (95% CI-28 to 83) in 2012, 59% (95% CI 33-74) in 2013 and 55% (95% CI 39-67) in 2014. For A(H3N2), VE was 30% (95% CI 14-44) in 2012, 67% (95% CI 39-82) in 2013 and 26% (95% CI 1-45) in 2014. For influenza B, VE was stable across years at 56% (95% CI 37-70) in 2012, 57% (95% CI 30-73) in 2013 and 54% (95% CI 21-73) in 2014. Overall VE against influenza was low in 2012 and 2014 when A(H3N2) was the dominant strain and the vaccine was poorly matched. In contrast, overall VE was higher in 2013 when A(H1N1)pdm09 dominated and the vaccine was a better match. Pooling data can increase the sample available and enable more precise subtype- and age group-specific estimates, but limitations remain.

Regression approaches in the test-negative study design for assessment of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Influenza vaccination is the most practical means available for preventing influenza virus infection and is widely used in many countries. Because vaccine components and circulating strains frequently change, it is important to continually monitor vaccine effectiveness (VE). The test-negative design is frequently used to estimate VE. In this design, patients meeting the same clinical case definition are recruited and tested for influenza; those who test positive are the cases and those who test negative form the comparison group. When determining VE in these studies, the typical approach has been to use logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Because vaccine coverage and influenza incidence change throughout the season, time is included among these confounders. While most studies use unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for time, an alternative approach is to use conditional logistic regression, matching on time. Here, we used simulation data to examine the potential for both regression approaches to permit accurate and robust estimates of VE. In situations where vaccine coverage changed during the influenza season, the conditional model and unconditional models adjusting for categorical week and using a spline function for week provided more accurate estimates. We illustrated the two approaches on data from a test-negative study of influenza VE against hospitalization in children in Hong Kong which resulted in the conditional logistic regression model providing the best fit to the data.

Early life stress and the anxious brain: evidence for a neural mechanism linking childhood emotional maltreatment to anxiety in adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Childhood emotional maltreatment (CEM) increases the likelihood of developing an anxiety disorder in adulthood, but the neural processes underlying conferment of this risk have not been established. Here, we test the potential for neuroimaging the adult brain to inform understanding of the mechanism linking CEM to adult anxiety symptoms. METHOD: One hundred eighty-two adults (148 females, 34 males) with a normal-to-clinical range of anxiety symptoms underwent structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging while completing an emotion-processing paradigm with facial expressions of fear, anger, and happiness. Participants completed self-report measures of CEM and current anxiety symptoms. Voxelwise mediation analyses on gray-matter volumes and activation to each emotion condition were used to identify candidate brain mechanisms relating CEM to anxiety in adulthood. RESULTS: During processing of fear and anger faces, greater amygdala and less right dorsolateral prefrontal (dlPFC) activation partially mediated the positive relationship between CEM and anxiety symptoms. Greater right posterior insula activation to fear also partially mediated this relationship, as did greater ventral anterior cingulate (ACC) and less dorsal ACC activation to anger. Responses to happy faces in these regions did not mediate the CEM-anxiety relationship. Smaller right dlPFC gray-matter volumes also partially mediated the CEM-anxiety relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Activation patterns of the adult brain demonstrate the potential to inform mechanistic accounts of the CEM conferment of anxiety symptoms. Results support the hypothesis that exaggerated limbic activation to negative valence facial emotions links CEM to anxiety symptoms, which may be consequent to a breakdown of cortical regulatory processes.

Late season interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness reliably predict end of season estimates in Victoria, Australia, 2007 to 2012.

Twice each year the World Health Organization makes a recommendation for the composition of the influenza vaccine, based on circulating strains of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1) and B. Strain selection has always been based on immunogenicity studies with limited human data. Immunogenicity can be considered as a proxy for vaccine effectiveness (VE). However, only interim VE estimates for the target hemisphere can be considered in time for the strain selection meeting.Using surveillance data from Victoria, Australia, we retrospectively estimated and compared interim and final VE estimates for 2007 to 2012. In general, interim estimates were within five percentage points of final estimates. However, estimates made too early or in years of low influenza activity may be unreliable.

The profile and incidence of cancer in Down syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Down syndrome is one of the commonest causes of intellectual disability. As life expectancy improves with early and more intensive surgical and medical treatments, people with the disorder are more likely to exhibit classic morbidity and mortality patterns and be diagnosed with diseases such as cancer. METHODS: A profile of cancer cases among people with Down syndrome has been compiled, based on the analysis of a linked data set that included information from the Disability Services Commission of Western Australian and the State Cancer Registry. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Although the total age- and sex-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for people with Down syndrome were similar to that for the general population, SIRs for leukaemia were significantly higher while the incidence of certain other types of cancers was reduced. Overall, there was a lower incidence of solid tumours in Down syndrome, possibly reflecting the age profile of the study cohort.

An assessment of intellectual disability among Aboriginal Australians.

BACKGROUND: The health and well-being of Indigenous people is a significant global problem, and Aboriginal Australians suffer from a considerably higher burden of disease and lower life expectancy than the non-Indigenous population. Intellectual disability (ID) can further compromise health, but there is little information that documents the prevalence of ID among indigenous populations. This study provides information on ID among the Aboriginal population of Western Australia. METHODS: The Disability Services Commission (DSC) of Western Australia has maintained a statewide database of people with ID since 1953. Data on people of Aboriginal descent were extracted from the DSC database and linked to two other state-based databases, the Hospital Morbidity Data System and the Deaths Registry, with additional linkage to the National Death Index. The linked data were used to assess the prevalence, survival patterns and causes of death in Aboriginal people with ID. RESULTS: Although comprising 3.5% of the population, Aboriginal Australians represented 7.4% of all people registered for ID services. The level of ID was assessed as borderline or mild in 40.7% of cases, moderate in 19.9%, severe or profound in 12.1%, but had not been specified in 27.2% cases. Median survival was 55.1 years for men and 64.0 years for women, with a mean age at death (n = 102) of 19.6 years. The leading causes of death were respiratory diseases, diseases of the circulatory system, and accidents. CONCLUSIONS: The study presents unique population summary data for ID in the Aboriginal community of Western Australia. To provide appropriate prevention and intervention strategies, there is an urgent need for more detailed information on the prevalence and patterns of ID.

Consanguinity, caste and deaf-mutism in Punjab, 1921.

The effects of religion, population sub-division and geography on the prevalence of deaf-mutism were investigated using information collected in the 1921 Census of Punjab. The total sample size was 9.36 million, and comprised data on thirteen Hindu castes, seventeen Muslim biraderis and two Sikh castes. A two-way analysis of variance comparing males in Hindu castes in which consanguineous marriage was prohibited, with males in Muslim biraderis which favoured first cousin marriage, indicated major differences with respect to the patterns of deaf-mutism within each religion. In the Muslim population 9.1% of the relative variation in the prevalence of deaf-mutism was inter-biraderi, 36.8% between geographical regions, and 48.8% an interaction between biraderi and region, whereas among Hindus 46.8% of the observed variation was inter-caste, 12.8% inter-region and 33.6% due to caste region interaction. From a wider disease perspective the results obtained with the Hindu community indicate the significant genetic differentiation associated with caste endogamy. As the overwhelming majority of Hindu marriages continue to be within-caste, it can be predicted that similar levels of inter-caste differences in disease frequency currently exist. By comparison, the lower level of inter-biraderi variation among Muslims is probably indicative of the dissolution of pre-existing caste boundaries and the resultant gene pool mixing that followed the large-scale conversion of Hindus to Islam during Muslim rule in North India from the 13th to the 19th centuries.

Breast cancer and the uptake of mammography screening services by women with intellectual disabilities.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that approximately 50% of women in Australia with intellectual disability will live to 70 years of age and as a result many will fall within the age group at highest risk for breast cancer (50-69 years). METHODS: Subjects were identified through the Western Australia Disability Services database. To determine the number of women diagnosed with breast cancer during the period 1982-2000, individual records (n = 2,370) were linked to the Western Australia Cancer Registry and the Mammography Screening Registry. RESULTS: The incidence of breast cancer among women with intellectual disability was 64.0 per 100,000 person-years, by comparison with 146.7 per 100,000 person-years in the general population. The uptake of breast cancer screening was examined in a subgroup of 380 women, 34.7% of whom had used mammographic screening, as opposed to 54.6% screening uptake in the general population. Failure to use screening services was highest in women who were unmarried, and was positively associated with severity of intellectual disability, presence of physical disabilities, and urban residence. CONCLUSIONS: The lower incidence of breast cancer in women with intellectual disability may in part be attributable to decreased life expectancy, but it also appears to reflect significant under utilization of the readily available screening services.

Comparative survival advantage of males with Down syndrome.

In virtually all countries life expectancy is longer in females than in males. A multigeneration, population-based dataset was used to investigate whether a gender-specific difference in life expectancy could be determined in a large cohort (n = 1,332) of people with Down syndrome resident in Western Australia. Contrary to the established pattern of longevity in the general population, and in most people with intellectual disability, males with Down syndrome had a significantly greater life expectancy than females with the same disorder. The reasons for this atypical finding are discussed in terms of the patterns of morbidity experienced by people with Down syndrome, especially at early and late stages of their lifespan.

The changing survival profile of people with Down's syndrome: implications for genetic counselling.

Cohort studies have indicated that the survival of individuals with Down's syndrome has dramatically increased over the past 50 years. Early childhood survival in particular has shown major improvement, due largely to advances in cardiac surgery and in general health management. The present study was based on a continuous cohort of 1332 people with Down's syndrome in Western Australia, registered for intellectual disability services between 1953 and 2000. Their life expectancy was 58.6 years, 25% lived to 62.9 years, and the oldest living person is 73 years of age. Life expectancy for males was greater than females by 3.3 years. The substantial increase in survival across the study period means that the life expectancy of people with Down's syndrome is approaching that of the general population, but accompanied by a range of significant mid-life health problems. The findings are of relevance to all developed countries and have considerable implications in terms of the counselling information provided to families at risk of having a child with Down's syndrome.

The influence of intellectual disability on life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: To date, relatively few representative data have been available to health planners and advocacy groups on the life expectancy of people with intellectual disability. A study of trends in the survival profiles of people with intellectual disability was undertaken to assist in the planning of appropriate medical and support services. METHODS: Since 1953, the Disability Services Commission of Western Australia has maintained a database of persons diagnosed with intellectual disability. The database was used to calculate survival probabilities on a total of 8724 individuals, 7562 of whom were still alive at the time of sampling in December 2000. RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier survival plots showed a strong negative association between severity of intellectual disability and survival, with median life expectancies of 74.0, 67.6, and 58.6 years for people with mild, moderate, and severe levels of handicap. Significant negative associations also were observed with male gender, Indigenous Australian parentage, and individuals diagnosed with a specific genetic disorder. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate a major and expanding increase in the service requirements of this aging, intellectually disabled population during the past two generations.

Does inbreeding lead to decreased human fertility?

In most Western countries there is a widespread belief, fostered in part by historical prejudice and religious proscription, that inbreeding in human populations causes a reduction in fertility. Support for this belief has been claimed in HLA-based studies, with increased rates of fetal losses suggested in HLA-compatible unions. To critically assess the overall status of fertility in consanguineous unions, data on 30 populations resident in six countries were collated from a systematic review of the literature. The mean numbers of live births were then compared in four consanguinity test categories, ranging from second cousin to uncle-niece/double first cousin, and corresponding non-consanguineous reference groups. Linear regressions indicated a positive association between consanguinity and fertility at all levels of inbreeding, attaining statistical significance at first cousin level (p < 0.0001). The results were, however, subject to a number of potential limitations, in particular lack of control for important socio-demographic variables. To overcome this problem, data on first cousin marriages were abstracted from the National Family and Health Survey conducted in India during 1992-1993. Multivariate analysis showed that fertility in first cousin unions was positively influenced by a number of variables, including illiteracy, earlier age at marriage and lower contraceptive uptake, but the most important of these parameters were duration of marriage and reproductive compensation. In net terms, consanguinity was not found to be associated either with a significant positive or negative effect on fertility.

A genome-based study of consanguinity in three co-resident endogamous Pakistan communities.

In a study based on 173 individuals drawn from three endogamous, co-resident communities in the province of Punjab, the Awan, Khattar and Rajpoot, an analysis of 10 autosomal single tandem repeats on chromosomes 13 and 15 revealed distinctive genetic profiles in each community. A total of 99 different alleles were detected, with 28 alleles (28.3%) shared by all three communities. The mean private allele frequency was 7.7%. There was a reduction in heterozygosity and high average inbreeding effects (FIS and/or HS), particularly in the Awan, indicating genetic isolation and a high cumulative level of autozygosity. Genotyping with eight Y-chromosome STRs resulted in the construction of six haplotypes, one each for the Awan and the Khattar but four for the Rajpoot, suggesting marked variation in the patterns of male founder effects in the history of each community. The lower than expected levels of homozygosity observed at a number of loci may be indicative of cosegregation of the STRs with nearby early development genes subject to selection.