A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism.

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19.

Operator-as-a-Consumer: A Novel Energy Storage Sharing Approach Under Demand Charge.

Energy storage systems (ESSs)-based demand response (DR) is an appealing way to save electricity bills for consumers under demand charge and time-of-use (TOU) price. In order to counteract the high investment cost of ESS, a novel operator-enabled ESS sharing scheme, namely, the "operator-as-a-consumer (OaaC)," is proposed and investigated in this article. In this scheme, the users and the operator form a Stackelberg game. The users send ESS orders to the operator and apply their own ESS dispatching strategies for their own purposes. Meanwhile, the operator maximizes its profit through optimal ESS sizing and scheduling, as well as pricing for the users' ESS orders. The feasibility and economic performance of OaaC are further analyzed by solving a bilevel joint optimization problem of ESS pricing, sizing, and scheduling. To make the analysis tractable, the bilevel model is first transformed into its single-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) formulation and is then linearized into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem using multiple linearization methods. Case studies with actual data are utilized to demonstrate the profitability for the operator and simultaneously the ability of bill saving for the users under the proposed OaaC scheme.

Use of temporal contact graphs to understand the evolution of COVID-19 through contact tracing data.

Digital contact tracing has been recently advocated by China and many countries as part of digital prevention measures on COVID-19. Controversies have been raised about their effectiveness in practice as it remains open how they can be fully utilized to control COVID-19. In this article, we show that an abundance of information can be extracted from digital contact tracing for COVID-19 prevention and control. Specifically, we construct a temporal contact graph that quantifies the daily contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals by exploiting a large volume of location-related data contributed by 10,527,737 smartphone users in Wuhan, China. The temporal contact graph reveals five time-varying indicators can accurately capture actual contact trends at population level, demonstrating that travel restrictions (e.g., city lockdown) in Wuhan played an important role in containing COVID-19. We reveal a strong correlation between the contacts level and the epidemic size, and estimate several significant epidemiological parameters (e.g., serial interval). We also show that user participation rate exerts higher influence on situation evaluation than user upload rate does, indicating a sub-sampled dataset would be as good at prediction. At individual level, however, the temporal contact graph plays a limited role, since the behavior distinction between the infected and uninfected individuals are not substantial. The revealed results can tell the effectiveness of digital contact tracing against COVID-19, providing guidelines for governments to implement interventions using information technology.

Sintering Quality Prediction Model Based on Semi-Supervised Dynamic Time Feature Extraction Framework.

In the sintering process, it is difficult to obtain the key quality variables in real time, so there is lack of real-time information to guide the production process. Furthermore, these labeled data are too few, resulting in poor performance of conventional soft sensor models. Therefore, a novel semi-supervised dynamic feature extraction framework (SS-DTFEE) based on sequence pre-training and fine-tuning is proposed in this paper. Firstly, based on the DTFEE model, the time features of the sequences are extended and extracted. Secondly, a novel weighted bidirectional LSTM unit (BiLSTM) is designed to extract the latent variables of original sequence data. Based on improved BiLSTM, an encoder-decoder model is designed as a pre-training model with unsupervised learning to obtain the hidden information in the process. Next, through model migration and fine-tuning strategy, the prediction performance of labeled datasets is improved. The proposed method is applied in the actual sintering process to estimate the FeO content, which shows a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy, compared to traditional methods.

Discrimination reveals reconstructability of multiplex networks from partial observations.

An excellent method for predicting links in multiplex networks is reflected in its ability to reconstruct them accurately. Although link prediction methods perform well on estimating the existence probability of each potential link in monoplex networks by the set of partially observed links, we lack a mathematical tool to reconstruct the multiplex network from the observed aggregate topology and partially observed links in multiplex networks. Here, we fill this gap by developing a theoretical and computational framework that builds a probability space containing possible structures with a maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we discovered that the discrimination, an indicator quantifying differences between layers from an entropy perspective, determines the reconstructability, i.e., the accuracy of such reconstruction. This finding enables us to design the optimal strategy to allocate the set of observed links in different layers for promoting the optimal reconstruction of multiplex networks. Finally, the theoretical analyses are corroborated by empirical results from biological, social, engineered systems, and a large volume of synthetic networks.

Dual Attention-Based Encoder-Decoder: A Customized Sequence-to-Sequence Learning for Soft Sensor Development.

Soft sensor techniques have been applied to predict the hard-to-measure quality variables based on the easy-to-measure process variables in industry scenarios. Since the products are usually produced with prearranged processing orders, the sequential dependence among different variables can be important for the process modeling. To use this property, a dual attention-based encoder-decoder is developed in this article, which presents a customized sequence-to-sequence learning for soft sensor. We reveal that different quality variables in the same process are sequentially dependent on each other and the process variables are natural time sequences. Hence, the encoder-decoder is constructed to explicitly exploit the sequential information of both the input, that is, the process variables, and the output, that is, the quality variables. The encoder and decoder modules are specified as the long short-term memory network. In addition, since different process variables and time points impose different effects on the quality variables, a dual attention mechanism is embedded into the encoder-decoder to concurrently search the quality-related process variables and time points for a fine-grained quality prediction. Comprehensive experiments are performed based on a real cigarette production process and a benchmark multiphase flow process, which illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed encoder-decoder and its sequence to sequence learning for soft sensor.

Performance-Guaranteed Fault-Tolerant Control for Uncertain Nonlinear Systems via Learning-Based Switching Scheme.

This article is concerned with the challenge of guaranteeing output constraints for fault-tolerant control (FTC) of a class of unknown multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear systems in the presence of actuator faults. Most industrial systems are equipped with redundant actuators and a fault detection-isolation mechanism for accommodating unexpected actuator faults. To simplify the system design and reduce the risk of false alarm or missed detection brought by the detection unit, a learning-based switching function scheme is proposed to automatically activate different sets of actuators in a rotational manner without human intervention. By this means, no explicit fault detection mechanism is needed. An additional step has been made to guarantee that the system output remains in user-defined time-varying asymmetric output constraints all the time during the occurrence of failures by utilizing error transformation techniques. The stability of the transformed system can equivalently deliver the result that the original system output stays in the required bounds. Hence, system crash or further catastrophic outcomes can be avoided. A neural network is integrated to embody the adaptive FTC design for dealing with unknown system dynamics. The dynamic surface control (DSC) technique is also invoked to decrease complexity. Furthermore, the stability analysis is carried out by the standard Lyapunov approach to guarantee that all the signals of the closed-loop system are semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, the simulation results are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

L1 adaptive pitch angle controller of wind energy conversion systems.

In conditions of above rated wind speed, the power output of a wind turbine should be maintained at rated power to prevent overheating of generators and power electronics systems. Furthermore, extreme wind conditions, such as wind gusts, can even lead to shut-downs. In this paper, a novel L1 adaptive controller is designed for blade pitch control of wind energy conversion systems (WECS) to achieve stable output power and generator speed, in the presence of turbulent wind conditions. Firstly, the pitch regulated variable-speed wind turbine is modeled as a non-affine nonlinear system with uncertainties. Subsequently, the L1 adaptive controller is introduced, which consists of three elements: state predictor, adaptive law, and control law. Without the requirement of exact system dynamics and wind speed measurement, uniformly bounded transient power response can be achieved. Compared with traditional methods adopted in industries, L1 adaptive controller is more robust and can achieve better transient control performance. The feasibility of the proposed scheme is verified via extensive simulation studies on a professional GH Bladed software package.

Distributed Synchronization Control of Nonaffine Multiagent Systems With Guaranteed Performance.

This paper deals with the synchronization control problem in the leader-follower format of a class of high-order nonaffine nonlinear multiagent systems under a directed communication protocol. A novel adaptive neural distributed synchronization scheme with guaranteed performance is proposed. The main contribution lies in the fact that both nonaffine agent dynamics, which basically makes most existing agent dynamics as special cases, and guaranteed synchronization performance are taken into account. The difficulty lies mainly in the nonaffine terms and coupling terms due to the interactions of agents. To overcome this challenge, an augmented quadratic Lyapunov function by incorporating the lower bounds of control gains is proposed. The problems resulting from the nonaffine dynamics and the coupling terms among agents are solved by incorporating the special property of radial basis function neural network into the derivative of the augmented quadratic Lyapunov function. The unknown nonaffine terms are addressed by using an indirected neural network approach. A nonlinear mapping is built to relate the local consensus error to a new one, which is subsequently stabilized via Lyapunov synthesis. As a result, the proposed approach can ensure the outputs of all follower agents to track the outputs of the leader, while the synchronization performance bounds can be quantified on both transient and steady-state stages. All other signals in the closed loop are ensured to be semiglobally, uniformly, and ultimately bounded. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed controller is verified through a heterogeneous four-agent example.

A tensor-based framework for studying eigenvector multicentrality in multilayer networks.

Centrality is widely recognized as one of the most critical measures to provide insight into the structure and function of complex networks. While various centrality measures have been proposed for single-layer networks, a general framework for studying centrality in multilayer networks (i.e., multicentrality) is still lacking. In this study, a tensor-based framework is introduced to study eigenvector multicentrality, which enables the quantification of the impact of interlayer influence on multicentrality, providing a systematic way to describe how multicentrality propagates across different layers. This framework can leverage prior knowledge about the interplay among layers to better characterize multicentrality for varying scenarios. Two interesting cases are presented to illustrate how to model multilayer influence by choosing appropriate functions of interlayer influence and design algorithms to calculate eigenvector multicentrality. This framework is applied to analyze several empirical multilayer networks, and the results corroborate that it can quantify the influence among layers and multicentrality of nodes effectively.

Robust State/Output-Feedback Control of Coaxial-Rotor MAVs Based on Adaptive NN Approach.

The coaxial-rotor micro-aerial vehicles (CRMAVs) have been proven to be a powerful tool in forming small and agile manned-unmanned hybrid applications. However, the operation of them is usually subject to unpredictable time-varying aerodynamic disturbances and model uncertainties. In this paper, an adaptive robust controller based on a neural network (NN) approach is proposed to reject such perturbations and track both the desired position and orientation trajectories. A complete dynamic model of a CRMAV is first constructed. When all system states are assumed to be available, an NN-based state-feedback controller is proposed through feedback linearization and Lyapunov analysis. Furthermore, to overcome the practical challenge that certain states are not measurable, a high-gain observer is introduced to estimate the unavailable states, and then, an output-feedback controller is developed. Rigorous theoretical analysis verifies the stability of the entire closed-loop system. In addition, extensive simulation studies are conducted to validate the feasibility of the proposed scheme.

Distributed Control of High-Order Nonlinear Input Constrained Multiagent Systems Using a Backstepping-Free Method.

This paper presents novel cooperative tracking control for a class of input-constrained multiagent systems with a dynamic leader. Each follower agent is described by a high-order nonlinear dynamics in strict feedback form with input constraints. Our main contribution lies in presenting a system transformation method that can convert the input-constrained state feedback cooperative tracking control of agents into an unconstrained output feedback control of agents with dynamics in Brunovsky normal form. As a result, the original problem is simplified to be a simple stabilization of the transformed system for the agents. Thus, the use of the backstepping scheme is obviated, and the synthesis and computation are extremely simplified. It is strictly proved that all follower agents can synchronize to the leader with bounded synchronization errors, and all other signals in the closed-loop system are semi-global uniformly ultimately bounded. Finally, numerical analysis is carried out to validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Robust ADP Design for Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems With Output Constraints.

In this paper, a novel robust adaptive dynamic programming (RADP)-based control strategy is presented for the optimal control of a class of output-constrained continuous-time unknown nonlinear systems. Our contribution includes a step forward beyond the usual optimal control result to show that the output of the plant is always within user-defined bounds. To achieve the new results, an error transformation technique is first established to generate an equivalent nonlinear system, whose asymptotic stability guarantees both the asymptotic stability and the satisfaction of the output restriction of the original system. Furthermore, RADP algorithms are developed to solve the transformed nonlinear optimal control problem with completely unknown dynamics as well as a robust design to guarantee the stability of the closed-loop systems in the presence of unavailable internal dynamic state. Via small-gain theorem, asymptotic stability of the original and transformed nonlinear system is theoretically guaranteed. Finally, comparison results demonstrate the merits of the proposed control policy.

Asymptotic Tracking Controller Design for Nonlinear Systems With Guaranteed Performance.

In this paper, a novel adaptive control strategy is presented for the tracking control of a class of multi-input-multioutput uncertain nonlinear systems with external disturbances to place user-defined time-varying constraints on the system state. Our contribution includes a step forward beyond the usual stabilization result to show that the states of the plant converge asymptotically, as well as remain within user-defined time-varying bounds. To achieve the new results, an error transformation technique is first established to generate an equivalent nonlinear system from the original one, whose asymptotic stability guarantees both the satisfaction of the time-varying restrictions and the asymptotic tracking performance of the original system. The uncertainties of the transformed system are overcome by an online neural network (NN) approximator, while the external disturbances and NN reconstruction error are compensated by the robust integral of the sign of the error signal. Via standard Lyapunov method, asymptotic tracking performance is theoretically guaranteed, and all the closed-loop signals are bounded. The requirement for a prior knowledge of bounds of uncertain terms is relaxed. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the merits of the proposed controller.

Adaptive Neural Control of a Class of Output-Constrained Nonaffine Systems.

In this paper, we present a novel tracking controller for a class of uncertain nonaffine systems with time-varying asymmetric output constraints. Firstly, the original nonaffine constrained (in the sense of the output signal) control system is transformed into a output-feedback control problem of an unconstrained affine system in normal form. As a result, stabilization of the transformed system is sufficient to ensure constraint satisfaction. It is subsequently shown that the output tracking is achieved without violation of the predefined asymmetric time-varying output constraints. Therefore, we are capable of quantifying the system performance bounds as functions of time on both transient and steady-state stages. Furthermore, the transformed system is linear with respect to a new input signal and the traditional backstepping scheme is avoided, which makes the synthesis extremely simplified. All the signals in the closed-loop system are proved to be semi-globally, uniformly, and ultimately bounded via Lyapunov synthesis. Finally, the simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed controller.

Robust Integral of Neural Network and Error Sign Control of MIMO Nonlinear Systems.

This paper presents a novel state-feedback control scheme for the tracking control of a class of multi-input multioutput continuous-time nonlinear systems with unknown dynamics and bounded disturbances. First, the control law consisting of the robust integral of a neural network (NN) output plus sign of the tracking error feedback multiplied with an adaptive gain is introduced. The NN in the control law learns the system dynamics in an online manner, while the NN residual reconstruction errors and the bounded disturbances are overcome by the error sign signal. Since both of the NN output and the error sign signal are included in the integral, the continuity of the control input is ensured. The controller structure and the NN weight update law are novel in contrast with the previous effort, and the semiglobal asymptotic tracking performance is still guaranteed by using the Lyapunov analysis. In addition, the NN weights and all other signals are proved to be bounded simultaneously. The proposed approach also relaxes the need for the upper bounds of certain terms, which are usually required in the previous designs. Finally, the theoretical results are substantiated with simulations.

Adaptive Neural Control of Nonaffine Systems With Unknown Control Coefficient and Nonsmooth Actuator Nonlinearities.

This brief considers the asymptotic tracking problem for a class of high-order nonaffine nonlinear dynamical systems with nonsmooth actuator nonlinearities. A novel transformation approach is proposed, which is able to systematically transfer the original nonaffine nonlinear system into an equivalent affine one. Then, to deal with the unknown dynamics and unknown control coefficient contained in the affine system, online approximator and Nussbaum gain techniques are utilized in the controller design. It is proven rigorously that asymptotic convergence of the tracking error and ultimate uniform boundedness of all the other signals can be guaranteed by the proposed control method. The control feasibility is further verified by numerical simulations.

Adaptive neural control of nonlinear MIMO systems with time-varying output constraints.

In this paper, adaptive neural control is investigated for a class of unknown multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear systems with time-varying asymmetric output constraints. To ensure constraint satisfaction, we employ a system transformation technique to transform the original constrained (in the sense of the output restrictions) system into an equivalent unconstrained one, whose stability is sufficient to solve the output constraint problem. It is shown that output tracking is achieved without violation of the output constraint. More specifically, we can shape the system performance arbitrarily on transient and steady-state stages with the output evolving in predefined time-varying boundaries all the time. A single neural network, whose weights are tuned online, is used in our design to approximate the unknown functions in the system dynamics, while the singularity problem of the control coefficient matrix is avoided without assumption on the prior knowledge of control input's bound. All the signals in the closed-loop system are proved to be semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded via Lyapunov synthesis. Finally, the merits of the proposed controller are verified in the simulation environment.

Controller design and experiment for autothermal reforming of methanol in miniature reactor.

In this paper, a miniature methanol fuel processor and its controller design is introduced for onboard hydrogen production. The hydrogen is generated via autothermal reforming of methanol. The control scheme consists of a hydrogen flow rate controller and a reforming temperature controller. To deal with uncertain system dynamics and external disturbance, an adaptive sliding mode control algorithm is adopted as the hydrogen flow rate controller for regulating hydrogen flow rate by manipulating methanol flow rate. Additionally, a high-gain observer is implemented to estimate the unmeasurable system state. The stability of closed-loop system is guaranteed by standard Lyapunov analysis. Furthermore, a variable ratio control law is employed as the reforming temperature controller to achieve steady reforming temperature by adjusting the reforming air flow rate. Finally, the effectiveness of the entire system is testified by experimental means.

Universal neural network control of MIMO uncertain nonlinear systems.

In this brief, a continuous tracking control law is proposed for a class of high-order multi-input-multi-output uncertain nonlinear dynamic systems with external disturbance and unknown varying control direction matrix. The proposed controller consists of high-gain feedback, Nussbaum gain matrix selector, online approximator (OLA) model and a robust term. The OLA model is represented by a two-layer neural network. The continuousness of the control signal is guaranteed to relax the requirement for the actuator bandwidth and avoid the incurred chattering effect. Asymptotic tracking performance is achieved theoretically by standard Lyapunov analysis. The control feasibility is also verified in simulation environment.